M&A bolt-on · Pepsi → target #5 of 9
Oatly
Premium, mission-driven plant-based dairy alternative brand with a focus on sustainability and lifestyle integration.
Founded 1994 · Parent: Oatly Group AB · Competes with Califia Farms, Silk, Alpro, Minor Figures · Partnerships: Nespresso, AVAVAV, EF Pro Bikers
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Why this verdict
F 52.2 < 62.
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for M&A bolt-on, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.30 | 18.7 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.20 | 3.8 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.15 | 11.9 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.15 | 9.1 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 3.5 |
| Momentum | 0.10 | 5.1 |
| F | 52.2 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Doritos (0.27), Quaker Oats Company (0.25), Gatorade (0.25), Pepsi (0.24).
Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Food & Beverage, Food.
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Oatly’s audience embraces them.
Taste profile overlap
19 of 81 top taste tags shared.
Pulpo A La Brasa, Seared Diver Scallops, Mole, teenager, male protagonist
Avocado Toast, Cafe, sweden, berlin germany, based on novel
Audience shape
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = 0.05 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
Portland, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Denver, Honolulu, Milwaukee, Sacramento
New York, Los Angeles
Bull vs bear
7 of 10 claims survived the judge; 3 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
The audience over-indexes on the Pepsi-Oatly overlap in the reverse direction: Oatly's audience affinity for Pepsi-linked brands is strong on the ratio of two-way affinity, which reads as a strength against the shortlist.
t7-m1.ratio = 0.9719Demographic alignment is a clear strength: the aggregate audience profiles of buyer and target line up with a cosine similarity above the shortlist average, supporting a shared core consumer base.
t7-m4.cosine = 0.2186t7-m4.value = 0.6093Cross-domain agreement on TV and podcast affinities is a strength: the target's aggregate audience score on podcasts sits above the shortlist average, pointing to shared media tastes beyond music and film.
t7-m3.domains[3].score = 0.8055t7-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8955Oatly's Qloo profile shows high popularity and a premium positioning, with its audience affinity for Pepsi among its top driver brands, which supports a bolt-on thesis around the same consumer relationships.
t7-profile.popularity = 0.9402t7-profile.drivers[3].score = 0.2358The code raised no red flags, and the composite score is a full-coverage read, which means the case rests on complete data rather than gaps; the composite is slightly below the shortlist average, so the case is a relative-strength argument rather than a clear winner.
t7-score.F = 52.2t7-flags.flags = 0Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 52.2017 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (54.7982)
Bear: against, or diligence first
Two-way audience affinity is weak: the audience affinity value between Pepsi and Oatly audiences is below the shortlist average, and the Pepsi-side affinity is the lowest of the two sides.
t7-m1.value = 0.6227t7-m1.b = 0.6139Geographic overlap is inverted: the correlation between buyer and target metro affinity is negative (-0.29, below the -0.20 shortlist average), and the target's strongest metros are where Pepsi's audience is comparatively weaker, so the 10 white-space metros are a diligence question.
t7-m5.correlation = -0.2904t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 10Momentum is flat and below the shortlist: the z-score of 0.0497 sits under the shortlist average of 0.187, so the case for a growth-driven bolt-on rests on forward evidence the pack does not show. Composite F of 52.2 is also below the 54.8 shortlist average.
t7-m6.z = 0.04968t7-score.F = 52.2Taste-profile overlap is thin: only 19 shared tags across an 81-tag union, and the buyer's top-20 tags are 45% missing from the target's profile, against a shortlist average of 43.75%.
t7-m2.sharedCount = 19t7-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.45t7-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.4375Rejected by the judge: cited 0.4375 for m2 Taste-profile overlap "buyerTop20MissingShare", but the ledger says 0.45
Cross-domain agreement lags on music and film: the music domain score is below the shortlist average, so the audience's cross-domain alignment is not uniform across categories.
t7-m3.domains[0].score = 0.7308t7-m3.domains[0].score = 0.768Rejected by the judge: cited 0.768 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[0].score", but the ledger says 0.7308
Provenance: 30 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 29 of 29 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 29 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 13 of 13 entities | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 7265 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 4 of 4 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 2 shared catalogue tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 5302 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t7-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": []
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t7-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.6316609463710944,
"b": 0.6138978241178442,
"ratio": 0.9718787074690944,
"value": 0.6226527238136079,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "EA3901B0-A3A5-43F5-AC2A-45C35C400926",
"name": "Doritos",
"affinity": 0.657664656794084
},
{
"id": "099E174E-1FEC-4AD9-80F2-92C2E6CBD6ED",
"name": "Quaker Oats Company",
"affinity": 0.6097752583305162
},
{
"id": "18316CE7-595D-4469-8FDF-43D1B70021E4",
"name": "Gatorade",
"affinity": 0.6090906935415965
},
{
"id": "957B527A-CF2C-4283-A2FD-3F49741DF5DE",
"name": "Pepsi",
"affinity": 0.5790606878051804
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.6624365266218457,
"b": 0.6407175341615415,
"ratio": 0.967828417745172,
"value": 0.6513859043165956
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.1921458625525947,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
"name": "female protagonist",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
"name": "electronic",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
"name": "Alternative Rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
"name": "indie",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
"name": "friendship",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
"name": "family relationships",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:pulpo_a_la_brasa",
"name": "Pulpo A La Brasa",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:seared_diver_scallops",
"name": "Seared Diver Scallops",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:mole",
"name": "Mole",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenager",
"name": "teenager",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:male_protagonist",
"name": "male protagonist",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:avocado_toast",
"name": "Avocado Toast",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:cafe",
"name": "Cafe",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:sweden",
"name": "sweden",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:berlin_germany",
"name": "berlin germany",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_novel",
"name": "based on novel",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"unionCount": 81,
"sharedCount": 19,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.45
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.21621768796827232,
"sharedCount": 19.625,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4375
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.7938985889738007,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Ricky Martin",
"affinity": 0.691289396904704
},
{
"name": "Arcangel",
"affinity": 0.6978654573356781
},
{
"name": "Wisin & Yandel",
"affinity": 0.6985560665486781
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.7308352251771426,
"shared": [
{
"name": "J Balvin",
"affinity": 0.7808523982730003
},
{
"name": "Sebastian Yatra",
"affinity": 0.7614492928236083
},
{
"name": "Maluma",
"affinity": 0.7611241753454155
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Saved by the Bell",
"affinity": 0.8609221164511552
},
{
"name": "The Next Step",
"affinity": 0.861054707969132
},
{
"name": "The L.A. Complex",
"affinity": 0.8702360804427937
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.8954603526180595,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Old Enough!",
"affinity": 0.9430367777804292
},
{
"name": "Blown Away",
"affinity": 0.9369269067568714
},
{
"name": "Lego Masters",
"affinity": 0.9234292954602512
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Ant-Man and the Wasp",
"affinity": 0.7103183571626597
},
{
"name": "Thor: Ragnarok",
"affinity": 0.7159103859373919
},
{
"name": "Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2",
"affinity": 0.717318158666356
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.743832726726313,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Toy Story 4",
"affinity": 0.7856950446150344
},
{
"name": "Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker",
"affinity": 0.7823262161993958
},
{
"name": "Ralph Breaks the Internet",
"affinity": 0.7737614647227615
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "First Take",
"affinity": 0.6819798033458028
},
{
"name": "Talk Is Jericho",
"affinity": 0.700179215012779
},
{
"name": "The Steve Austin Show",
"affinity": 0.7102223578176873
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.805466051373688,
"shared": [
{
"name": "The School of Greatness",
"affinity": 0.9008834424362788
},
{
"name": "Motivation with Brendon Burchard",
"affinity": 0.8692184845740237
},
{
"name": "Kwik Brain with Jim Kwik",
"affinity": 0.8641475742136001
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.810476776925301,
"domains[0].score": 0.7679707127120858,
"domains[1].score": 0.8919821957310872,
"domains[2].score": 0.7814520856550119,
"domains[3].score": 0.8005021136030196
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": 0.11749999999999998,
"female": -0.11749999999999998,
"25_to_29": 0.29000000000000004,
"30_to_34": -0.0675,
"35_to_44": -0.22000000000000003,
"45_to_54": -0.475,
"55_and_older": -0.3825,
"24_and_younger": 0.19999999999999998
},
"value": 0.6093240144407208,
"cosine": 0.21864802888144153,
"target": {
"male": -0.35000000000000003,
"female": 0.35000000000000003,
"25_to_29": 0.05,
"30_to_34": -0.78,
"35_to_44": 0.1,
"45_to_54": 0.05,
"55_and_older": -0.66,
"24_and_younger": -0.01
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": -0.0675,
"bucket": "30_to_34",
"target": -0.78
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.5685635164175713,
"cosine": 0.1371270328351427
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.3548068555164197,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 45.5152,
"lon": -122.6784,
"buyer": 0.6370498133412997,
"metro": "Portland",
"target": 0.9283320565652085,
"buyerRel": -0.19207051718894252,
"targetRel": 0.0992117260349662
},
{
"lat": 37.7749,
"lon": -122.4194,
"buyer": 0.7889464405773836,
"metro": "San Francisco",
"target": 0.9587984469610832,
"buyerRel": -0.1028134607618606,
"targetRel": 0.06703854562183897
},
{
"lat": 37.3382,
"lon": -121.8863,
"buyer": 0.7861348048497334,
"metro": "San Jose",
"target": 0.9379416726840089,
"buyerRel": -0.08564156330948514,
"targetRel": 0.0661653045247903
},
{
"lat": 47.6062,
"lon": -122.3321,
"buyer": 0.7106098918205455,
"metro": "Seattle",
"target": 0.9171161629467887,
"buyerRel": -0.1406137282845561,
"targetRel": 0.06589254284168711
},
{
"lat": 39.7392,
"lon": -104.9903,
"buyer": 0.7450534356097144,
"metro": "Denver",
"target": 0.9114396655921548,
"buyerRel": -0.12821694168374143,
"targetRel": 0.03816928829869903
},
{
"lat": 21.3069,
"lon": -157.8583,
"buyer": 0.8072542987354452,
"metro": "Honolulu",
"target": 0.9259788713519953,
"buyerRel": -0.08292348459968657,
"targetRel": 0.03580108801686355
},
{
"lat": 43.0389,
"lon": -87.9065,
"buyer": 0.7542971358083981,
"metro": "Milwaukee",
"target": 0.8675321748795027,
"buyerRel": -0.08408154682587188,
"targetRel": 0.02915349224523278
},
{
"lat": 38.5816,
"lon": -121.4944,
"buyer": 0.7552310511414703,
"metro": "Sacramento",
"target": 0.8622333987929893,
"buyerRel": -0.08440528682394,
"targetRel": 0.022597060827579063
}
],
"correlation": -0.29038628896716057,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 40.7128,
"lon": -74.006,
"buyer": 0.9035914207294288,
"metro": "New York",
"target": 0.950772642639582,
"buyerRel": -0.023531372405534268,
"targetRel": 0.023649849504619014
},
{
"lat": 34.0522,
"lon": -118.2437,
"buyer": 0.8809040566588447,
"metro": "Los Angeles",
"target": 0.9445435559200167,
"buyerRel": -0.039339810684582144,
"targetRel": 0.024299688576589817
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 10,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.3995949410190965,
"correlation": -0.20081011796180706
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": 0.0496824124354589,
"value": 0.5082804020725765,
"priorSd": 0.0007935904687299037,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": 0.06558891458264271,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": 0.06658256283135189
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.18695947847084152,
"value": 0.5311599130784737
}
},
{
"id": "t7-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Oatly",
"data": {
"name": "Oatly",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "Doritos",
"score": 0.26782333759658283
},
{
"name": "Quaker Oats Company",
"score": 0.24832115149078265
},
{
"name": "Gatorade",
"score": 0.24804237350769429
},
{
"name": "Pepsi",
"score": 0.23581313740494034
}
],
"ownership": "independent",
"keyMarkets": [
"Sweden",
"United States",
"United Kingdom",
"Germany",
"Canada"
],
"popularity": 0.9401688393144717,
"screenRank": 12,
"foundedYear": 1994,
"priceRangeUsd": [
4,
7
],
"ultimateParent": "Oatly Group AB",
"forwardAffinity": 0.6316609463710944,
"competitorBrands": [
"Califia Farms",
"Silk",
"Alpro",
"Minor Figures",
"Pacific Foods"
],
"sharedCategories": [
{
"name": "Food & Beverage",
"score": 0.7305072539555804
},
{
"name": "Food",
"score": 0.7303632399004254
}
],
"knownPartnerships": [
"Nespresso",
"AVAVAV",
"EF Pro Bikers"
],
"marketPositioning": "Premium, mission-driven plant-based dairy alternative brand with a focus on sustainability and lifestyle integration."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t7-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 52.20171059256792,
"points": {
"m1": 18.679581714408236,
"m2": 3.842917251051894,
"m3": 11.908478834607012,
"m4": 9.139860216610812,
"m5": 3.548068555164197,
"m6": 5.082804020725765
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 54.798185502799505
}
}
]