M&A bolt-on · Pepsi → target #3 of 9
Celsius
A fitness-focused, clinically proven energy drink brand for high-performance individuals who prioritize health and metabolism-boosting ingredients.
Founded 2004 · Parent: Celsius Holdings, Inc. · Competes with Red Bull, Monster Energy, Ghost Energy, C4 Energy · Partnerships: Fitness Influencers, Athletic Trainers, Gym Chains
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Pass
59.4F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured
Why this verdict
F 59.4 < 62.
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.65
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.26
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.82
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.53
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.68
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.76
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for M&A bolt-on, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.30 | 19.6 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.20 | 5.2 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.15 | 12.3 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.15 | 8.0 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 6.8 |
| Momentum | 0.10 | 7.6 |
| F | 59.4 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Gatorade (0.27), Quaker Oats Company (0.24), Pepsi (0.24), Doritos (0.24).
Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Food & Beverage, Drinks.
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Celsius’s audience embraces them.
Music0.80
Embraced: Prince Royce, HA-ASH, Luis Fonsi · Least shared: Juanes, Alejandro Sanz, Ricky Martin
TV0.90
Embraced: American Gladiators, Lego Masters, The Real World · Least shared: Soundtrack, Doogie Kamealoha, M.D., Blossom
Film0.76
Embraced: Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far from Home · Least shared: Thor: Ragnarok, Aquaman, Avengers: Infinity War
Podcasts0.82
Embraced: The Chalene Show | Diet, Fitness & Life Balance, Trust and Believe with Shaun T, THE ED MYLETT SHOW · Least shared: First Take, Talk Is Jericho, The Steve Austin Show
Taste profile overlap
23 of 77 top taste tags shared.
Both over-index on
female protagonistfriendshipfriendfamily relationshipsHip Hopelectronicrapcountry
Buyer only
Pulpo A La Brasa, Seared Diver Scallops, Mole, Alternative Rock, Fiction
Celsius only
Ribs, Bar, african american, Health, Self Help
Audience shape
Pepsi (buyer) Celsius
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = 1.55 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
White space: Celsius strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space
Memphis, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Diego, Richmond
Shared strongholds
Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Charlotte
Bull vs bear
9 of 9 claims survived the judge; 0 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
The composite score sits above the shortlist average, with the audience-overlap and momentum components carrying the case for the bolt-on.
t4-score.F = 59.42t4-score.points.m1 = 19.57t4-score.points.m6 = 7.585Two-way audience affinity is strong: the aggregate audience over-indexes on both Celsius and Pepsi at levels that sit above the shortlist average, with Pepsi's own brands among the top reverse affinities.
t4-m1.a = 0.6635t4-m1.b = 0.6415t4-m1.value = 0.6523Momentum is the strongest signal: recent aggregate audience affinity for Celsius has risen well above its prior mean, and the z-score is far above the shortlist average.
t4-m6.z = 1.551t4-m6.value = 0.7585t4-m6.recentMean = 1.699Cross-domain agreement is high: the audience shows consistent affinity across music, TV, film and podcasts, with TV and music scores above the shortlist average.
t4-m3.value = 0.8168t4-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8964t4-m3.domains[0].score = 0.7965Geographic footprint is a strength: Celsius's metro affinity correlates positively with Pepsi's across the cohort, and the overlap sits above the shortlist average, with seven white-space metros where Celsius over-indexes relative to the buyer.
t4-m5.correlation = 0.3662t4-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 7t4-m5.value = 0.6831
Bear: against, or diligence first
The demographic alignment check is a weakness. The aggregate audience cosine between buyer and target is 0.068, well below the shortlist average of 0.137, so the two audiences' age and gender profiles diverge more than is typical for this shortlist.
t4-m4.cosine = 0.06824t4-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.1371The largest age-bucket gap sits at 30 to 34, where the target audience index is -0.86 against the buyer's -0.0675. Diligence should check whether the target's core audience is under-represented in the buyer's own 30 to 34 base before any cross-marketing is assumed.
t4-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.86t4-m4.buyer.30_to_34 = -0.0675Cross-domain agreement is weak in film. The film domain score is 0.756 against a shortlist average of 0.781, so the target's audience affinity for films does not carry the same overlap with the buyer's film tastes as other domains do.
t4-m3.domains[2].score = 0.7563t4-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[2].score = 0.7815The two-way audience affinity ratio is a weakness. At 0.967 it sits just below the shortlist average of 0.968, which means the buyer's audience is not mirrored by the target's audience as tightly as the shortlist typically is. The gap is small, so the case rests on diligence rather than on a clear break.
t4-m1.ratio = 0.9668t4-m1.shortlistAverages.ratio = 0.9678
Provenance: 30 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 29 of 29 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 29 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 13 of 13 entities | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 7265 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 4 of 4 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 2 shared catalogue tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 3957 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t4-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": []
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t4-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.6635478760038311,
"b": 0.6415111126385717,
"ratio": 0.966789490009411,
"value": 0.6523434418347458,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "18316CE7-595D-4469-8FDF-43D1B70021E4",
"name": "Gatorade",
"affinity": 0.7022593633919234
},
{
"id": "099E174E-1FEC-4AD9-80F2-92C2E6CBD6ED",
"name": "Quaker Oats Company",
"affinity": 0.6268342232353878
},
{
"id": "957B527A-CF2C-4283-A2FD-3F49741DF5DE",
"name": "Pepsi",
"affinity": 0.6225277669039798
},
{
"id": "EA3901B0-A3A5-43F5-AC2A-45C35C400926",
"name": "Doritos",
"affinity": 0.6144230970229956
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.6624365266218457,
"b": 0.6407175341615415,
"ratio": 0.967828417745172,
"value": 0.6513859043165956
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.2586377097729516,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
"name": "female protagonist",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
"name": "friendship",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
"name": "family relationships",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
"name": "Hip Hop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
"name": "electronic",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
"name": "rap",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
"name": "country",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:pulpo_a_la_brasa",
"name": "Pulpo A La Brasa",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:seared_diver_scallops",
"name": "Seared Diver Scallops",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:mole",
"name": "Mole",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
"name": "Alternative Rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:fiction",
"name": "Fiction",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:ribs",
"name": "Ribs",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:bar",
"name": "Bar",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
"name": "african american",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:health",
"name": "Health",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:self_help",
"name": "Self Help",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
}
],
"unionCount": 77,
"sharedCount": 23,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.21621768796827232,
"sharedCount": 19.625,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4375
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.816776222362037,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Juanes",
"affinity": 0.7637243301496562
},
{
"name": "Alejandro Sanz",
"affinity": 0.7715978232518339
},
{
"name": "Ricky Martin",
"affinity": 0.7812372916641253
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.7965035885987184,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Prince Royce",
"affinity": 0.8189033423005766
},
{
"name": "HA-ASH",
"affinity": 0.8104942965630217
},
{
"name": "Luis Fonsi",
"affinity": 0.8089606215643047
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Soundtrack",
"affinity": 0.8639369430190663
},
{
"name": "Doogie Kamealoha, M.D.",
"affinity": 0.8662237355761343
},
{
"name": "Blossom",
"affinity": 0.869008151822541
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.8963537937428555,
"shared": [
{
"name": "American Gladiators",
"affinity": 0.9556407367711203
},
{
"name": "Lego Masters",
"affinity": 0.942188285557806
},
{
"name": "The Real World",
"affinity": 0.93794938459115
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Thor: Ragnarok",
"affinity": 0.7322929298379736
},
{
"name": "Aquaman",
"affinity": 0.7379056062878719
},
{
"name": "Avengers: Infinity War",
"affinity": 0.7384709048605322
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.7563297232513352,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw",
"affinity": 0.7885710969940356
},
{
"name": "Toy Story 4",
"affinity": 0.7767375728287235
},
{
"name": "Spider-Man: Far from Home",
"affinity": 0.7708945700121369
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "First Take",
"affinity": 0.7193861435518817
},
{
"name": "Talk Is Jericho",
"affinity": 0.7384443826993271
},
{
"name": "The Steve Austin Show",
"affinity": 0.7402640165322564
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.8179177838552387,
"shared": [
{
"name": "The Chalene Show | Diet, Fitness & Life Balance",
"affinity": 0.9013674806054935
},
{
"name": "Trust and Believe with Shaun T",
"affinity": 0.8968494908172621
},
{
"name": "THE ED MYLETT SHOW",
"affinity": 0.8910310499681823
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.810476776925301,
"domains[0].score": 0.7679707127120858,
"domains[1].score": 0.8919821957310872,
"domains[2].score": 0.7814520856550119,
"domains[3].score": 0.8005021136030196
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": 0.11749999999999998,
"female": -0.11749999999999998,
"25_to_29": 0.29000000000000004,
"30_to_34": -0.0675,
"35_to_44": -0.22000000000000003,
"45_to_54": -0.475,
"55_and_older": -0.3825,
"24_and_younger": 0.19999999999999998
},
"value": 0.5341201403327372,
"cosine": 0.06824028066547447,
"target": {
"male": -0.2,
"female": 0.2,
"25_to_29": 0.48,
"30_to_34": -0.86,
"35_to_44": -0.56,
"45_to_54": 0.05,
"55_and_older": 0.39,
"24_and_younger": -0.18
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": -0.0675,
"bucket": "30_to_34",
"target": -0.86
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.5685635164175713,
"cosine": 0.1371270328351427
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.6831182122918613,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 35.1495,
"lon": -90.049,
"buyer": 0.6863002965642402,
"metro": "Memphis",
"target": 0.8487345612244896,
"buyerRel": -0.09195907139780135,
"targetRel": 0.07047519326244811
},
{
"lat": 30.3322,
"lon": -81.6557,
"buyer": 0.7722142910230129,
"metro": "Jacksonville",
"target": 0.9040689994939276,
"buyerRel": -0.07481020985291409,
"targetRel": 0.05704449861800065
},
{
"lat": 36.1699,
"lon": -115.1398,
"buyer": 0.7430061121617761,
"metro": "Las Vegas",
"target": 0.9019548602232444,
"buyerRel": -0.10612435823851529,
"targetRel": 0.05282438982295301
},
{
"lat": 29.9511,
"lon": -90.0715,
"buyer": 0.6763113954894275,
"metro": "New Orleans",
"target": 0.8399990374825599,
"buyerRel": -0.11197655185744126,
"targetRel": 0.051711090135691085
},
{
"lat": 33.4484,
"lon": -112.074,
"buyer": 0.7895261165411581,
"metro": "Phoenix",
"target": 0.9020834996080377,
"buyerRel": -0.08015767896835879,
"targetRel": 0.032399704098520776
},
{
"lat": 32.7157,
"lon": -117.1611,
"buyer": 0.8332788945233921,
"metro": "San Diego",
"target": 0.9448157345985893,
"buyerRel": -0.07960188411590019,
"targetRel": 0.03193495595929696
},
{
"lat": 37.5407,
"lon": -77.436,
"buyer": 0.7202866475539701,
"metro": "Richmond",
"target": 0.8352786622954697,
"buyerRel": -0.08374043449060331,
"targetRel": 0.03125158025089625
}
],
"correlation": 0.3662364245837227,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 25.7617,
"lon": -80.1918,
"buyer": 0.8888579072251039,
"metro": "Miami",
"target": 0.9653144375402529,
"buyerRel": -0.022339384666842932,
"targetRel": 0.05411714564830605
},
{
"lat": 32.7767,
"lon": -96.797,
"buyer": 0.848947725266995,
"metro": "Dallas",
"target": 0.9467600921790577,
"buyerRel": -0.03635787771638299,
"targetRel": 0.06145448919567964
},
{
"lat": 33.749,
"lon": -84.388,
"buyer": 0.8428861612056047,
"metro": "Atlanta",
"target": 0.9052257428628496,
"buyerRel": -0.019584454516602845,
"targetRel": 0.04275512714064211
},
{
"lat": 29.7604,
"lon": -95.3698,
"buyer": 0.8369103976334342,
"metro": "Houston",
"target": 0.9036328608915709,
"buyerRel": -0.024846047248657577,
"targetRel": 0.04187641600947911
},
{
"lat": 35.2271,
"lon": -80.8431,
"buyer": 0.8104324490087557,
"metro": "Charlotte",
"target": 0.8821058801570907,
"buyerRel": -0.03657401021373963,
"targetRel": 0.03509942093459539
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 7,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.3995949410190965,
"correlation": -0.20081011796180706
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": 1.5508776529279633,
"value": 0.7584796088213271,
"priorSd": 0.3435466611224584,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": 1.1665892126179112,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": 1.6993880520907478
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.18695947847084152,
"value": 0.5311599130784737
}
},
{
"id": "t4-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Celsius",
"data": {
"name": "Celsius",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "Gatorade",
"score": 0.2736738887123446
},
{
"name": "Quaker Oats Company",
"score": 0.24428034483190128
},
{
"name": "Pepsi",
"score": 0.24260209785902526
},
{
"name": "Doritos",
"score": 0.23944366859672875
}
],
"ownership": "independent",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States",
"Canada"
],
"popularity": 0.7307555389805225,
"screenRank": 7,
"foundedYear": 2004,
"priceRangeUsd": [
2,
30
],
"ultimateParent": "Celsius Holdings, Inc.",
"forwardAffinity": 0.6635478760038311,
"competitorBrands": [
"Red Bull",
"Monster Energy",
"Ghost Energy",
"C4 Energy",
"Alani Nu"
],
"sharedCategories": [
{
"name": "Food & Beverage",
"score": 0.7305072539555804
},
{
"name": "Drinks",
"score": 0.7297067290653321
}
],
"knownPartnerships": [
"Fitness Influencers",
"Athletic Trainers",
"Gym Chains"
],
"marketPositioning": "A fitness-focused, clinically proven energy drink brand for high-performance individuals who prioritize health and metabolism-boosting ingredients."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t4-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 59.4224811020549,
"points": {
"m1": 19.570303255042376,
"m2": 5.1727541954590315,
"m3": 12.251643335430554,
"m4": 8.011802104991059,
"m5": 6.831182122918613,
"m6": 7.584796088213271
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 54.798185502799505
}
}
]