Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #4 of 8

Cotopaxi

A purpose-driven outdoor brand offering high-performance, vibrant gear at a premium price point for environmentally aware adventure enthusiasts.

Founded 2014 · Competes with Patagonia, The North Face, Osprey, Arc'teryx · Partnerships: Cotopaxi Foundation

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
67.9F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 67.9 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.89
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.32
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.88
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.60
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.58
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2531.7
Taste-profile overlap0.156.8
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.6
Demographic alignment0.108.6
Geographic footprint0.108.2
Momentumnot measured–
F67.9

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Tracksmith (0.25), HOKA (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.25), On (0.25).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Active, Sustainability, Functional, Eco-conscious individuals, Functional, Colorful.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Cotopaxi’s audience embraces them.

Music0.89
Embraced: Houndmouth, Rayland Baxter, Dawes · Least shared: Tom Petty, Mudcrutch, Tedeschi Trucks Band
TV0.92
Embraced: Naked and Afraid, Naked and Afraid XL, Forged in Fire · Least shared: American Gladiators, The Real World, The Challenge
Film0.91
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, Meru · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, Finding Jack Charlton
Podcasts0.80
Embraced: Choose Strong, Ali on the Run Show, Work, Play, Love with Lauren Fleshman and Jesse Thomas · Least shared: Endurance Planet, Fitness Confidential, FoundMyFitness

Taste profile overlap

23 of 77 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
indiefolkfriendfriendshipTourist attractionAlternative RockrockPark
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Fries, Steak Tartare

Cotopaxi only

Fish Chips, lesbian, Food, new york city, Sandwich

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Cotopaxi
-0.87-0.430.00+0.43+0.87≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Cotopaxi strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Boise, Birmingham, Nashville, Memphis, Oklahoma City

Shared strongholds

New Orleans, Anchorage, Virginia Beach, Pittsburgh, Minneapolis

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

IC memo

Number check passed: 10 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written from the ledger template

Cotopaxi: ADVANCE

VC thesis screen for HOKA. Ranked #4 of 8 on composite audience fit. Composite fit F 67.9. Rule: F 67.9 >= 67 and no red flags.

MetricValueCoverage
Two-way audience affinity0.89full
Taste-profile overlap0.32full
Cross-domain agreement0.88full
Demographic alignment0.60full
Geographic footprint0.58full
Momentumn/anot measured

Shared taste. Both audiences over-index on: indie, folk, friend, friendship, Tourist attraction. Across culture. The buyer audience's favourites this audience embraces most. Music: Houndmouth, Rayland Baxter; TV: Naked and Afraid, Naked and Afraid XL; Film: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo; Podcasts: Choose Strong, Ali on the Run Show. Footprint white space. Metros where the target's audience over-indexes and the buyer's doesn't: Boise, Birmingham, Nashville, Memphis, Oklahoma City.

Red flags. None raised by the code rules.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok7593 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/analysis/compareok9 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t5-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9061182854992674,
   "b": 0.8706958647134183,
   "ratio": 0.9609075091489501,
   "value": 0.8880539858723958,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.8859993961837991
    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.8708614783699977
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8632314195173647
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8626911647825115
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9142067566664733,
   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
   "ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.3191929643041903,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:steak_tartare",
     "name": "Steak Tartare",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fish_chips",
     "name": "Fish Chips",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:lesbian",
     "name": "lesbian",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:new_york_city",
     "name": "new york city",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:sandwich",
     "name": "Sandwich",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 77,
   "sharedCount": 23,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.27871786779809044,
   "sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.880536325839484,
   "domains": [
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     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8122157807027888
      },
      {
       "name": "Mudcrutch",
       "affinity": 0.8205615228616584
      },
      {
       "name": "Tedeschi Trucks Band",
       "affinity": 0.8446058523668601
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.893384600855061,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Houndmouth",
       "affinity": 0.9599345068345047
      },
      {
       "name": "Rayland Baxter",
       "affinity": 0.943717927663213
      },
      {
       "name": "Dawes",
       "affinity": 0.9368711231056008
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.891802281838493
      },
      {
       "name": "The Real World",
       "affinity": 0.8960754937504573
      },
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.8986798824187759
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9196476909720124,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Naked and Afraid",
       "affinity": 0.9575374073621805
      },
      {
       "name": "Naked and Afraid XL",
       "affinity": 0.9516374096302967
      },
      {
       "name": "Forged in Fire",
       "affinity": 0.9488567984702412
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Dark Waters",
       "affinity": 0.8556769988783808
      },
      {
       "name": "The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley",
       "affinity": 0.867791638176361
      },
      {
       "name": "Finding Jack Charlton",
       "affinity": 0.8722039446760745
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.9061037862135123,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Dawn Wall",
       "affinity": 0.968577907307127
      },
      {
       "name": "Free Solo",
       "affinity": 0.9638327625930353
      },
      {
       "name": "Meru",
       "affinity": 0.9565104899962491
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Endurance Planet",
       "affinity": 0.7483178274404302
      },
      {
       "name": "Fitness Confidential",
       "affinity": 0.7698056355783948
      },
      {
       "name": "FoundMyFitness",
       "affinity": 0.7745311760115281
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8030092253173506,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Choose Strong",
       "affinity": 0.8418514710647569
      },
      {
       "name": "Ali on the Run Show",
       "affinity": 0.8349813750774381
      },
      {
       "name": "Work, Play, Love with Lauren Fleshman and Jesse Thomas",
       "affinity": 0.8349498003301121
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.33,
    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.6000883876070412,
   "cosine": 0.20017677521408234,
   "target": {
    "male": -0.01,
    "female": 0.01,
    "25_to_29": 0.53,
    "30_to_34": -0.87,
    "35_to_44": 0.31,
    "45_to_54": -0.6000000000000001,
    "55_and_older": -0.6000000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": -0.18
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.455,
    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.6000000000000001
   }
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "cosine": 0.31297951360243037
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 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.5753225507062255,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
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     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
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     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.9767033024966002,
     "buyerRel": -0.04423854067931943,
     "targetRel": 0.16740901360723348
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.5186,
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     "metro": "Birmingham",
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     "targetRel": 0.11288271771219871
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
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     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.9096628119798743,
     "buyerRel": 0.03096654841851887,
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    },
    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
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     "metro": "Memphis",
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     "buyerRel": 0.0024804208248982995,
     "targetRel": 0.09862583931328528
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
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     "buyer": 0.7735162122542768,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.8807818617714416,
     "buyerRel": -0.014814723137858476,
     "targetRel": 0.0924509263793063
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   ],
   "correlation": 0.15064510141245097,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
     "lon": -90.0715,
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     "metro": "New Orleans",
     "target": 0.8758054824464027,
     "buyerRel": 0.04572248364468401,
     "targetRel": 0.12838288733186565
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.8988125680292488,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.9858054746015935,
     "buyerRel": 0.042952844705860804,
     "targetRel": 0.1299457512782055
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
     "lon": -75.978,
     "buyer": 0.8930670085141974,
     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.9175626445142473,
     "buyerRel": 0.0700605585580869,
     "targetRel": 0.0945561945581368
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.4406,
     "lon": -79.9959,
     "buyer": 0.8767029097139056,
     "metro": "Pittsburgh",
     "target": 0.9097027751376697,
     "buyerRel": 0.06551784110354708,
     "targetRel": 0.09851770652731118
    },
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
     "buyer": 0.9263430202196176,
     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.955017676896257,
     "buyerRel": 0.06399564871366115,
     "targetRel": 0.09267030539030063
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 5,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.460515719992653,
   "correlation": -0.07896856001469411
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Cotopaxi",
  "data": {
   "name": "Cotopaxi",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.25439405195619536
    },
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.2500475520969179
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.24785675874361987
    },
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.2477016372032669
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.8821515146378262,
   "screenRank": 9,
   "foundedYear": 2014,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    30,
    400
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9061182854992674,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Patagonia",
    "The North Face",
    "Osprey",
    "Arc'teryx",
    "Black Diamond"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [
    {
     "name": "Active",
     "score": 0.7273849283473037
    },
    {
     "name": "Sustainability",
     "score": 0.724114287756014
    },
    {
     "name": "Functional",
     "score": 0.723490548086604
    },
    {
     "name": "Eco-conscious individuals",
     "score": 0.7227501704239845
    },
    {
     "name": "Functional",
     "score": 0.7223378038689463
    },
    {
     "name": "Colorful",
     "score": 0.721230895146777
    }
   ],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Cotopaxi Foundation"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "A purpose-driven outdoor brand offering high-performance, vibrant gear at a premium price point for environmentally aware adventure enthusiasts."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 67.92673821842895,
   "points": {
    "m1": 31.716213781156995,
    "m2": 6.839849235089792,
    "m3": 12.57909036913549,
    "m4": 8.572691251529161,
    "m5": 8.218893581517507,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.7
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 66.89621770116648,
   "coverage": 0.68125
  }
 }
]