Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Los Angeles Dodgers → target #3 of 8

New Era Cap

The definitive, authentic market leader in licensed sports headwear that transitions seamlessly from the playing field to daily streetwear.

Founded 1920 · Competes with Mitchell & Ness, Fanatics, '47, Under Armour · Partnerships: MLB, NFL, NBA

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
66.6F / 100
95% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 66.6 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.85
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.36
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.83
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.52
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.40
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3531.5
Taste-profile overlap0.103.8
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.5
Demographic alignment0.105.5
Geographic footprint0.208.3
Momentumnot measured–
F66.6

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Los Angeles Dodgers (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly New Era Cap’s audience embraces them.

Music0.81
Embraced: The Notorious B.I.G., Problem, Cam'ron · Least shared: Berner, Nipsey Hussle, 2 Chainz
TV0.90
Embraced: Ballers, Brockmire, Eastbound & Down · Least shared: Arrested Development, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Running Wilde
Film0.84
Embraced: Creed, Coach Carter, More Than a Game · Least shared: Rudy, The Pistol: The Birth of a Legend, Hoosiers
Podcasts0.78
Embraced: I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST, Anything Better?, The Pete and Sebastian Show · Least shared: Riffin With Griffin, George Perez Stories, Enchilada Casserole

Taste profile overlap

26 of 74 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hoprapelectronicafrican americanfriendfamily relationshipsamerican footballlos angeles california
Buyer only

Tortillas, mexican american, European, latino, female protagonist

New Era Cap only

Stadium, Veal Parmesan, car, football, Reggaeton

Audience shape

Los Angeles Dodgers (buyer) New Era Cap
-0.73-0.360.00+0.36+0.73≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: New Era Cap strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Buffalo, New York, Chicago, Atlanta

Shared strongholds

Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento, San Jose

Bull vs bear

9 of 10 claims survived the judge; 1 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The composite score of 66.61 sits above the shortlist average, at the same 0.95 coverage.

    t2-score.F = 66.61t2-score.coverage = 0.95

  • Cross-domain agreement is strongest in TV, scoring 0.9007 against the shortlist average, and in film, scoring 0.8429. Sports-culture titles such as Ballers carry shared audience affinity of 0.9816.

    t2-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9007t2-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8429t2-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.9816

  • Demographic alignment of 0.5179 is at or above the shortlist average, with a cosine of 0.03571, which is also above average.

    t2-m4.value = 0.5179t2-m4.cosine = 0.03571

  • Two-way audience affinity is strong and perfectly symmetric: in aggregate, the Dodgers and New Era Cap audiences each over-index on the other at 0.8545, above the shortlist average, with a balanced ratio of 1.

    t2-m1.value = 0.8545t2-m1.ratio = 1

  • The taste-profile overlap of 0.3622 beats the shortlist average, with 26 shared tags spanning hip hop, rap and Los Angeles. Only 0.35 of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target, versus a 0.475 shortlist average.

    t2-m2.value = 0.3622t2-m2.sharedCount = 26t2-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Cross-domain taste agreement trails the shortlist, driven by Music, where the shared-affinity score is well under the cohort average and clash artists appear in the aggregate data.

    t2-m3.value = 0.8328t2-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8086

  • Demographic skews diverge sharply: the target audience over-indexes heavily male and under-indexes on 55+, while the buyer's audience over-indexes on 55+, leaving a near-zero demographic cosine; diligence should test whether a co-brand fits the buyer's older fan base.

    t2-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.69t2-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.33t2-m4.target.male = 0.73

  • Momentum cannot be assessed: Qloo returned no trending history, so the m6 component contributed zero points and composite coverage is incomplete.

    t2-m6.coverage = 0t2-score.points.m6 = 0t2-score.coverage = 0.95

  • Geographic footprint is a weakness: the aggregate geographic score sits below the shortlist average and buyer-target metro affinity is negatively correlated, more so than the cohort, so the target's audience strength is concentrated in metros like Buffalo where the buyer's audience under-indexes.

    t2-m5.value = 0.3958t2-m5.correlation = -0.2084t2-m5.whiteSpace[0].buyerRel = -0.09553

  • The composite is only marginally above the shortlist average, and the target's profile shows the Dodgers already as a top driver, which suggests limited incremental audience reach from a new co-brand.

    t2-score.F = 66.61t2-profile.drivers[0].score = 1

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 66.6116 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (64.7541)

IC memo

Number check passed: 18 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-opus-5-5 (after one repair pass)

New Era Cap: WATCH

Recommendation New Era Cap is a WATCH. The verdict rule: F 66.6 is between 62 and 67, with no red flags. The aggregate audience fit is real but uneven, and momentum data is missing, so a pilot should come before any commitment.

Where the audiences meet

  • Two-way affinity: In aggregate, the Dodgers and New Era Cap audiences each over-index on the other at 0.85. That is above the shortlist average, and the ratio of 1 means the affinity is perfectly balanced.
  • Taste overlap: Taste-profile overlap of 0.36 beats the shortlist average. The brands share 26 tags spanning hip hop, rap and Los Angeles. Only 0.35 of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target, a smaller share than the shortlist average.
  • TV and film: Cross-domain agreement is strongest in TV (0.90) and film (0.84). Sports-culture titles such as Ballers carry shared audience affinity of 0.98.
  • Composite and demographics: The composite sits above the shortlist average at the same 0.95 coverage. Demographic alignment of 0.52 is at or above average.

Risks

  • Music: Cross-domain agreement trails the shortlist overall, driven by Music. Clash artists appear in the aggregate data.
  • Demographic skews: The target audience over-indexes heavily male and under-indexes on 55+. The buyer's audience over-indexes on 55+, leaving a near-zero demographic cosine.
  • Momentum: Qloo returned no trending history for the window ending 2026-10-24. The momentum component contributed nothing, so coverage is incomplete.
  • Geography: The aggregate geographic score is below the shortlist average. Buyer-target metro affinity is negatively correlated, more so than the cohort's. The target's audience strength concentrates in metros like Buffalo, where the buyer's audience under-indexes.

Diligence questions

  • Would a co-branded pilot hold up against the Music-domain clash signals?
  • Does a co-brand fit the Dodgers' older fan base, given the target audience's 55+ under-index?
  • Can momentum be assessed from another source before committing, given that Qloo returned no trending history?
  • Would a pilot gain traction in Dodgers strongholds such as San Diego and Phoenix, where the target's audience affinity is relatively weaker?
  • The Dodgers already appear as a top driver of New Era Cap audience affinity. Does a co-brand add anything beyond the existing MLB licensing relationship?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok7800 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok6409 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t2-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8545459731464383,
   "b": 0.8545459731464383,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8545459731464383,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "9B8B279C-B777-4293-8121-B8174970B57D",
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "affinity": 0.8545459731464383
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8058428397073507,
   "b": 0.8058428397073507,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8058428397073506
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.36217948717948717,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
     "name": "african american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:los_angeles_california",
     "name": "los angeles california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tortillas",
     "name": "Tortillas",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mexican_american",
     "name": "mexican american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:european",
     "name": "European",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:latino",
     "name": "latino",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
     "name": "female protagonist",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:stadium",
     "name": "Stadium",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:veal_parmesan",
     "name": "Veal Parmesan",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:football",
     "name": "football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:reggaeton",
     "name": "Reggaeton",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 74,
   "sharedCount": 26,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.26208447790247186,
   "sharedCount": 21.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.475
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8327897434562456,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Berner",
       "affinity": 0.7887758357702228
      },
      {
       "name": "Nipsey Hussle",
       "affinity": 0.7951040180156043
      },
      {
       "name": "2 Chainz",
       "affinity": 0.7952862229696628
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8085500474305332,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Notorious B.I.G.",
       "affinity": 0.8434961920873667
      },
      {
       "name": "Problem",
       "affinity": 0.838110050546372
      },
      {
       "name": "Cam'ron",
       "affinity": 0.8244390547052439
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Arrested Development",
       "affinity": 0.8626296545623761
      },
      {
       "name": "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia",
       "affinity": 0.8732075134550504
      },
      {
       "name": "Running Wilde",
       "affinity": 0.8774078312382643
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9006889478956094,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ballers",
       "affinity": 0.9816285497758254
      },
      {
       "name": "Brockmire",
       "affinity": 0.9239997346865342
      },
      {
       "name": "Eastbound & Down",
       "affinity": 0.9175369859537635
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Rudy",
       "affinity": 0.802175172221207
      },
      {
       "name": "The Pistol: The Birth of a Legend",
       "affinity": 0.8077485154620593
      },
      {
       "name": "Hoosiers",
       "affinity": 0.807986748804707
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8428648633121136,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Creed",
       "affinity": 0.9219850438759404
      },
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.8719895124814361
      },
      {
       "name": "More Than a Game",
       "affinity": 0.8683217724125536
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Riffin With Griffin",
       "affinity": 0.7437941886854972
      },
      {
       "name": "George Perez Stories",
       "affinity": 0.746446439835072
      },
      {
       "name": "Enchilada Casserole",
       "affinity": 0.7476450509976843
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.7790551151867259,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST",
       "affinity": 0.8482926333696806
      },
      {
       "name": "Anything Better?",
       "affinity": 0.8316525985278301
      },
      {
       "name": "The Pete and Sebastian Show",
       "affinity": 0.8124485829040397
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8441854633559238,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8794888506674802,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8836269856142132,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8086589764417401,
   "domains[3].score": 0.804967040700262
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.21,
    "female": -0.21,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": -0.53,
    "45_to_54": 0.22,
    "55_and_older": 0.33,
    "24_and_younger": 0.36
   },
   "value": 0.517856706400541,
   "cosine": 0.03571341280108201,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.73,
    "female": -0.73,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.06,
    "35_to_44": 0.01,
    "45_to_54": 0.16,
    "55_and_older": -0.6900000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": -0.06
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.33,
    "bucket": "55_and_older",
    "target": -0.6900000000000001
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5129090961869054,
   "cosine": 0.02581819237381071
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.39578544876821603,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 42.8864,
     "lon": -78.8784,
     "buyer": 0.822516777760419,
     "metro": "Buffalo",
     "target": 0.975721542654899,
     "buyerRel": -0.09553453489772157,
     "targetRel": 0.057670229996758415
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7128,
     "lon": -74.006,
     "buyer": 0.9277621396874952,
     "metro": "New York",
     "target": 0.9559924100522847,
     "buyerRel": -0.03799999557565281,
     "targetRel": -0.009769725210863278
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.8781,
     "lon": -87.6298,
     "buyer": 0.9369385202202375,
     "metro": "Chicago",
     "target": 0.9516857401937747,
     "buyerRel": -0.026636719026512434,
     "targetRel": -0.011889499052975205
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.749,
     "lon": -84.388,
     "buyer": 0.9192048906814938,
     "metro": "Atlanta",
     "target": 0.9266002004855813,
     "buyerRel": -0.028202428204356922,
     "targetRel": -0.020807118400269387
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.20842910246356794,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 33.4484,
     "lon": -112.074,
     "buyer": 0.9871317998785691,
     "metro": "Phoenix",
     "target": 0.9342773754414108,
     "buyerRel": 0.04539765309736399,
     "targetRel": -0.007456771339794388
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.7157,
     "lon": -117.1611,
     "buyer": 0.9991776483152878,
     "metro": "San Diego",
     "target": 0.9549017524261905,
     "buyerRel": 0.03613923205339131,
     "targetRel": -0.008136663835705993
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.5816,
     "lon": -121.4944,
     "buyer": 0.9869141049046211,
     "metro": "Sacramento",
     "target": 0.9191799664395105,
     "buyerRel": 0.04403233985604815,
     "targetRel": -0.023701798609062408
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.3382,
     "lon": -121.8863,
     "buyer": 0.9808622670867017,
     "metro": "San Jose",
     "target": 0.9246961895723682,
     "buyerRel": 0.028624991795488386,
     "targetRel": -0.02754108571884506
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 4,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.43391156033354505,
   "correlation": -0.13217687933290995
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": false,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: New Era Cap",
  "data": {
   "name": "New Era Cap",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Japan",
    "Australia",
    "Europe"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9843026902408842,
   "screenRank": 2,
   "foundedYear": 1920,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    60
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8545459731464383,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Mitchell & Ness",
    "Fanatics",
    "'47",
    "Under Armour"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "MLB",
    "NFL",
    "NBA",
    "NHL",
    "Spike Lee"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "The definitive, authentic market leader in licensed sports headwear that transitions seamlessly from the playing field to daily streetwear."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 66.61155246359458,
   "points": {
    "m1": 31.483272694868784,
    "m2": 3.812415654520918,
    "m3": 17.532415651710433,
    "m4": 5.451123225268853,
    "m5": 8.3323252372256,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.95
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.75407958362149,
   "coverage": 0.9500000000000001
  }
 }
]