Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #2 of 8

Brooks Running

Premium performance-focused running brand providing biomechanically engineered footwear for committed runners.

Founded 1914 · Parent: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · Competes with Asics, Saucony, Hoka, New Balance · Partnerships: Staple Design

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
69.2F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 69.2 is between 55 and 70, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.91
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.28
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.89
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.84
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.43
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2532.4
Taste-profile overlap0.156.0
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.8
Demographic alignment0.1011.9
Geographic footprint0.106.2
Momentumnot measured–
F69.2

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are HOKA (0.27), On (0.25), Tracksmith (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.23).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Fashion, Footwear, Athletic, Accessories, Innovative, Active.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Brooks Running’s audience embraces them.

Music0.84
Embraced: Tom Petty, Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit, Jason Isbell · Least shared: Shakey Graves, Greyhounds, Alabama Shakes
TV0.95
Embraced: The Amazing Race, Survivor, American Ninja Warrior · Least shared: Old Enough!, Alone Australia, Claim to Fame
Film0.89
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, The Peanut Butter Falcon · Least shared: The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, The Wall: Climb for Gold, The Alpinist
Podcasts0.90
Embraced: Ali on the Run Show, I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, C Tolle Run · Least shared: FoundMyFitness, The Tim Ferriss Show, The Model Health Show

Taste profile overlap

25 of 75 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
folkfriendshipTourist attractionrockindiefriendcountryPark
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Bar, Steak Tartare

Brooks Running only

new york city, Christian Music, competition, small town, Seafood

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Brooks Running
-0.78-0.390.00+0.39+0.78≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Brooks Running strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Birmingham, Oklahoma City, Louisville, Nashville, Memphis, Columbus, San Antonio, Atlanta

Shared strongholds

Pittsburgh

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

IC memo

Number check passed: 11 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written from the ledger template

Brooks Running: WATCH

VC thesis screen for HOKA. Ranked #2 of 8 on composite audience fit. Composite fit F 69.2. Rule: F 69.2 is between 55 and 70, no red flags.

MetricValueCoverage
Two-way audience affinity0.91full
Taste-profile overlap0.28full
Cross-domain agreement0.89full
Demographic alignment0.84full
Geographic footprint0.43full
Momentumn/anot measured

Shared taste. Both audiences over-index on: folk, friendship, Tourist attraction, rock, indie. Across culture. The buyer audience's favourites this audience embraces most. Music: Tom Petty, Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit; TV: The Amazing Race, Survivor; Film: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo; Podcasts: Ali on the Run Show, I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast. Footprint white space. Metros where the target's audience over-indexes and the buyer's doesn't: Birmingham, Oklahoma City, Louisville, Nashville, Memphis.

Red flags. None raised by the code rules.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredlive 6003 ms
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 4557 ms
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitieslive 5029 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 7290 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 12277 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 12831 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 15291 ms
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 23532 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 4003 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 4024 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 4024 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 4691 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 4852 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 5449 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 5564 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 5587 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 6311 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 6486 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 6487 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 7364 ms
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredlive 69020 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 76251 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 77269 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 81543 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 86752 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 86865 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok35 shared catalogue tag(s)live 92691 ms
/v2/insightsok8257 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 104334 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t6-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9250882967431556,
   "b": 0.8877526156191715,
   "ratio": 0.9596409539981997,
   "value": 0.9060359897132331,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.9412446515163498
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.894925275105862
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.8890511785554032
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8257893572990712
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9318242178599573,
   "b": 0.8942579218903515,
   "ratio": 0.9596907599606054,
   "value": 0.9126545976467968
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.28012048192771083,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:bar",
     "name": "Bar",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:steak_tartare",
     "name": "Steak Tartare",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:new_york_city",
     "name": "new york city",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:christian_music",
     "name": "Christian Music",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:competition",
     "name": "competition",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:small_town",
     "name": "small town",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:seafood",
     "name": "Seafood",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 75,
   "sharedCount": 25,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.2923883996049556,
   "sharedCount": 25.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41250000000000003
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8940819951685067,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Shakey Graves",
       "affinity": 0.8117854156243671
      },
      {
       "name": "Greyhounds",
       "affinity": 0.8157818979207434
      },
      {
       "name": "Alabama Shakes",
       "affinity": 0.8170280267957333
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8437771543737475,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.9008131422726126
      },
      {
       "name": "Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit",
       "affinity": 0.8683282153706254
      },
      {
       "name": "Jason Isbell",
       "affinity": 0.8678405197133015
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.9273599383962413
      },
      {
       "name": "Alone Australia",
       "affinity": 0.9359276708111073
      },
      {
       "name": "Claim to Fame",
       "affinity": 0.937544659262504
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9480451847048381,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Amazing Race",
       "affinity": 0.9820840013610668
      },
      {
       "name": "Survivor",
       "affinity": 0.9723248410955394
      },
      {
       "name": "American Ninja Warrior",
       "affinity": 0.9626008004763674
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley",
       "affinity": 0.8623389551482001
      },
      {
       "name": "The Wall: Climb for Gold",
       "affinity": 0.8639880166494242
      },
      {
       "name": "The Alpinist",
       "affinity": 0.8649303482550018
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8862696404310665,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Dawn Wall",
       "affinity": 0.9252311731172264
      },
      {
       "name": "Free Solo",
       "affinity": 0.9189075175364174
      },
      {
       "name": "The Peanut Butter Falcon",
       "affinity": 0.9093960616694242
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "FoundMyFitness",
       "affinity": 0.8185756554634044
      },
      {
       "name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
       "affinity": 0.8202057107927995
      },
      {
       "name": "The Model Health Show",
       "affinity": 0.8553926123988844
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8982360011643752,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ali on the Run Show",
       "affinity": 0.9780693026704661
      },
      {
       "name": "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9630094492044116
      },
      {
       "name": "C Tolle Run",
       "affinity": 0.944149119249285
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8895360570163606,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8671579273614827,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9184741196444983,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8852859286874863,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8872262523719755
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.33,
    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.8353336263505284,
   "cosine": 0.670667252701057,
   "target": {
    "male": -0.02,
    "female": 0.02,
    "25_to_29": -0.14,
    "30_to_34": 0.23,
    "35_to_44": 0.16,
    "45_to_54": 0.19,
    "55_and_older": -0.7000000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": -0.18
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": -0.3025,
    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": 0.23
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6743017600086788,
   "cosine": 0.34860352001735756
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.43085078841766167,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 33.5186,
     "lon": -86.8104,
     "buyer": 0.7473393960773093,
     "metro": "Birmingham",
     "target": 0.9339795230759044,
     "buyerRel": -0.03920707746193042,
     "targetRel": 0.1474330495366647
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.7735162122542768,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9504078056574179,
     "buyerRel": -0.043529799042807404,
     "targetRel": 0.13336179436033369
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.8157297774752361,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9477902740818406,
     "buyerRel": -0.003321613807734547,
     "targetRel": 0.1287388827988699
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.8297116121273177,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.9530930648243915,
     "buyerRel": 0.00036454154250431525,
     "targetRel": 0.1237459942395781
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
     "lon": -90.049,
     "buyer": 0.7524965372047269,
     "metro": "Memphis",
     "target": 0.9103999021882233,
     "buyerRel": -0.036056674130995,
     "targetRel": 0.12184669085250144
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.9612,
     "lon": -82.9988,
     "buyer": 0.8547156102257165,
     "metro": "Columbus",
     "target": 0.9669494714305576,
     "buyerRel": 0.002110285898252573,
     "targetRel": 0.11434414710309371
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.4241,
     "lon": -98.4936,
     "buyer": 0.8118544272353817,
     "metro": "San Antonio",
     "target": 0.9600433463298629,
     "buyerRel": -0.0346051804586317,
     "targetRel": 0.11358373863584947
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.749,
     "lon": -84.388,
     "buyer": 0.846706920331274,
     "metro": "Atlanta",
     "target": 0.9596643435726769,
     "buyerRel": -0.00019490616335715583,
     "targetRel": 0.11276251707804574
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.13829842316467664,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 40.4406,
     "lon": -79.9959,
     "buyer": 0.8767029097139056,
     "metro": "Pittsburgh",
     "target": 0.9719463805815544,
     "buyerRel": 0.026808800073103045,
     "targetRel": 0.12205227094075177
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 10,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4686152548508794,
   "correlation": -0.06276949029824112
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Brooks Running",
  "data": {
   "name": "Brooks Running",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.265063891380334
    },
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.25201989252425006
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.25036568828787004
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.23255052780754595
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Europe",
    "Japan"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9722839077147362,
   "screenRank": 6,
   "foundedYear": 1914,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    90,
    200
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Berkshire Hathaway Inc.",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9250882967431556,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Asics",
    "Saucony",
    "Hoka",
    "New Balance",
    "Mizuno"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [
    {
     "name": "Fashion",
     "score": 0.7307481702311143
    },
    {
     "name": "Footwear",
     "score": 0.7301438218533568
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic",
     "score": 0.7289855573312215
    },
    {
     "name": "Accessories",
     "score": 0.728376010988578
    },
    {
     "name": "Innovative",
     "score": 0.7274399203995217
    },
    {
     "name": "Active",
     "score": 0.7273849283473037
    }
   ],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Staple Design"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium performance-focused running brand providing biomechanically engineered footwear for committed runners."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 69.22195867301923,
   "points": {
    "m1": 32.35842820404404,
    "m2": 6.002581755593804,
    "m3": 12.77259993097867,
    "m4": 11.933337519293264,
    "m5": 6.155011263109453,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.7
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 67.89531664857634,
   "coverage": 0.7000000000000001
  }
 }
]