Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #3 of 8

Nuun Hydration

Premium functional electrolyte hydration for active lifestyles focused on clean ingredients and efficacy.

Founded 2004 · Parent: Nestlé S.A. · Competes with Liquid I.V., Gatorade, LMNT, Ultima Replenisher · Partnerships: Ironman, USA Triathlon

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
68.6F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 68.6 is between 55 and 70, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.93
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.27
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.89
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.57
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.61
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2533.3
Taste-profile overlap0.155.7
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.7
Demographic alignment0.108.2
Geographic footprint0.108.7
Momentumnot measured–
F68.6

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.25), On (0.24).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Nuun Hydration’s audience embraces them.

Music0.88
Embraced: Trampled by Turtles, Dawes, Tom Petty · Least shared: Alabama Shakes, Tedeschi Trucks Band, Sturgill Simpson
TV0.89
Embraced: Old Enough!, Claim to Fame, Better Late Than Never · Least shared: Forged in Fire, Fear Factor, The Challenge
Film0.89
Embraced: Free Solo, The Dawn Wall, 14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible · Least shared: The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young, Becoming Warren Buffett, Andy Irons: Kissed by God
Podcasts0.90
Embraced: Ali on the Run Show, I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, C Tolle Run · Least shared: The Tim Ferriss Show, FoundMyFitness, Fitness Confidential

Taste profile overlap

23 of 77 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
folkfriendshipindieTourist attractionrockcountryParkfriend
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Fries, Bar

Nuun Hydration only

Chicken Wings, Deviled Eggs, Food, teenager, new york city

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Nuun Hydration
-0.81-0.410.00+0.41+0.81≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Nuun Hydration strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Memphis, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Columbus, Louisville, Nashville, Cincinnati, Charlotte

Shared strongholds

Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Virginia Beach, Cleveland

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

IC memo

Number check passed: 11 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written from the ledger template

Nuun Hydration: WATCH

VC thesis screen for HOKA. Ranked #3 of 8 on composite audience fit. Composite fit F 68.6. Rule: F 68.6 is between 55 and 70, no red flags.

MetricValueCoverage
Two-way audience affinity0.93full
Taste-profile overlap0.27full
Cross-domain agreement0.89full
Demographic alignment0.57full
Geographic footprint0.61full
Momentumn/anot measured

Shared taste. Both audiences over-index on: folk, friendship, indie, Tourist attraction, rock. Across culture. The buyer audience's favourites this audience embraces most. Music: Trampled by Turtles, Dawes; TV: Old Enough!, Claim to Fame; Film: Free Solo, The Dawn Wall; Podcasts: Ali on the Run Show, I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast. Footprint white space. Metros where the target's audience over-indexes and the buyer's doesn't: Memphis, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Columbus, Louisville.

Red flags. None raised by the code rules.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredlive 6003 ms
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 4557 ms
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitieslive 5029 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 7290 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 12277 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 12831 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 15291 ms
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 23532 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 4003 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 4024 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 4024 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 4691 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 4852 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 5449 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 5564 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 5587 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 6311 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 6486 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 6487 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 7364 ms
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredlive 45093 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 48718 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 48787 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 54892 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 55417 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 62381 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 69303 ms
/v2/insightsok6612 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 85136 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t1-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9521322383345385,
   "b": 0.9135317171727817,
   "ratio": 0.9594588654730603,
   "value": 0.9324326560458143,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.9327111761504384
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.9241166001033707
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.9085501337997461
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8887489586375719
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9318242178599573,
   "b": 0.8942579218903515,
   "ratio": 0.9596907599606054,
   "value": 0.9126545976467968
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.26676602086438145,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:bar",
     "name": "Bar",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:chicken_wings",
     "name": "Chicken Wings",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:deviled_eggs",
     "name": "Deviled Eggs",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenager",
     "name": "teenager",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:new_york_city",
     "name": "new york city",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 77,
   "sharedCount": 23,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.2923883996049556,
   "sharedCount": 25.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41250000000000003
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8889636904627302,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Alabama Shakes",
       "affinity": 0.8486936240509186
      },
      {
       "name": "Tedeschi Trucks Band",
       "affinity": 0.8501002765666561
      },
      {
       "name": "Sturgill Simpson",
       "affinity": 0.8520984848765377
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8758140000652916,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Trampled by Turtles",
       "affinity": 0.903878820660273
      },
      {
       "name": "Dawes",
       "affinity": 0.902781312346532
      },
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8960550529410082
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Forged in Fire",
       "affinity": 0.8785834548160495
      },
      {
       "name": "Fear Factor",
       "affinity": 0.879074669043947
      },
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.8797653550946183
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.8914317387853953,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.9068978368371402
      },
      {
       "name": "Claim to Fame",
       "affinity": 0.9045718838861675
      },
      {
       "name": "Better Late Than Never",
       "affinity": 0.9030514961367931
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
       "affinity": 0.8584173573957351
      },
      {
       "name": "Becoming Warren Buffett",
       "affinity": 0.8647262350583297
      },
      {
       "name": "Andy Irons: Kissed by God",
       "affinity": 0.8674302214913249
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8860922173558291,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Free Solo",
       "affinity": 0.9361321261670917
      },
      {
       "name": "The Dawn Wall",
       "affinity": 0.9232035546130277
      },
      {
       "name": "14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible",
       "affinity": 0.904155592778748
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
       "affinity": 0.8248510513404664
      },
      {
       "name": "FoundMyFitness",
       "affinity": 0.8342004804233732
      },
      {
       "name": "Fitness Confidential",
       "affinity": 0.8628771391338426
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.902516805644405,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ali on the Run Show",
       "affinity": 0.9755961699328536
      },
      {
       "name": "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9607043802036619
      },
      {
       "name": "C Tolle Run",
       "affinity": 0.9433922293558527
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8895360570163606,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8671579273614827,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9184741196444983,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8852859286874863,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8872262523719755
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.33,
    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.5727436252216107,
   "cosine": 0.14548725044322136,
   "target": {
    "male": -0.19,
    "female": 0.19,
    "25_to_29": -0.25,
    "30_to_34": -0.6000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": 0.72,
    "45_to_54": -0.81,
    "55_and_older": -0.45,
    "24_and_younger": -0.17
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.455,
    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.81
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6743017600086788,
   "cosine": 0.34860352001735756
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.6067394564226164,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
     "lon": -90.049,
     "buyer": 0.7524965372047269,
     "metro": "Memphis",
     "target": 0.873639812721175,
     "buyerRel": -0.036056674130995,
     "targetRel": 0.0850866013854531
    },
    {
     "lat": 30.3322,
     "lon": -81.6557,
     "buyer": 0.8500371301561284,
     "metro": "Jacksonville",
     "target": 0.9307916426830422,
     "buyerRel": -0.0043218198990198076,
     "targetRel": 0.07643269262789398
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.7684,
     "lon": -86.1581,
     "buyer": 0.8540164668100355,
     "metro": "Indianapolis",
     "target": 0.9274172671580226,
     "buyerRel": 0.002624365856524813,
     "targetRel": 0.07602516620451194
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.9612,
     "lon": -82.9988,
     "buyer": 0.8547156102257165,
     "metro": "Columbus",
     "target": 0.9284495997151336,
     "buyerRel": 0.002110285898252573,
     "targetRel": 0.07584427538766969
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.8157297774752361,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.8948068004205549,
     "buyerRel": -0.003321613807734547,
     "targetRel": 0.07575540913758427
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.8297116121273177,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.9049559811132832,
     "buyerRel": 0.00036454154250431525,
     "targetRel": 0.07560891052846985
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.1031,
     "lon": -84.512,
     "buyer": 0.8515095203703348,
     "metro": "Cincinnati",
     "target": 0.9237881775948129,
     "buyerRel": 0.0014665050436224458,
     "targetRel": 0.07374516226810057
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.2271,
     "lon": -80.8431,
     "buyer": 0.8598747624479326,
     "metro": "Charlotte",
     "target": 0.9361893238069712,
     "buyerRel": -0.003980601398335781,
     "targetRel": 0.0723339599607028
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.2134789128452327,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 40.4406,
     "lon": -79.9959,
     "buyer": 0.8767029097139056,
     "metro": "Pittsburgh",
     "target": 0.9443187481573606,
     "buyerRel": 0.026808800073103045,
     "targetRel": 0.09442463851655802
    },
    {
     "lat": 42.8864,
     "lon": -78.8784,
     "buyer": 0.8989421915829079,
     "metro": "Buffalo",
     "target": 0.9392967687224065,
     "buyerRel": 0.03888268649895088,
     "targetRel": 0.07923726363844952
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
     "lon": -75.978,
     "buyer": 0.8930670085141974,
     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.9447601208125793,
     "buyerRel": 0.03091875457324833,
     "targetRel": 0.08261186687163025
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.4993,
     "lon": -81.6944,
     "buyer": 0.9095332748721432,
     "metro": "Cleveland",
     "target": 0.9560218279267133,
     "buyerRel": 0.027679371140028275,
     "targetRel": 0.07416792419459839
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 8,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4686152548508794,
   "correlation": -0.06276949029824112
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Nuun Hydration",
  "data": {
   "name": "Nuun Hydration",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.25524871184467834
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.2528966927835158
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.248636724024084
    },
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.24321787134772171
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Canada"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.8688783034700208,
   "screenRank": 1,
   "foundedYear": 2004,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    7,
    30
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Nestlé S.A.",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9521322383345385,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Liquid I.V.",
    "Gatorade",
    "LMNT",
    "Ultima Replenisher",
    "Hydrant"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Ironman",
    "USA Triathlon"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium functional electrolyte hydration for active lifestyles focused on clean ingredients and efficacy."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 68.56682062168665,
   "points": {
    "m1": 33.30116628735051,
    "m2": 5.716414732808174,
    "m3": 12.699481292324718,
    "m4": 8.182051788880154,
    "m5": 8.667706520323092,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.7
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 67.89531664857634,
   "coverage": 0.7000000000000001
  }
 }
]