Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #6 of 8

Altra Running

Performance-focused technical footwear brand catering to runners and hikers who value ergonomic design and biomechanical innovation.

Founded 2009 · Parent: VF Corporation · Competes with Hoka, Salomon, Saucony, La Sportiva · Partnerships: Pleasures

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
67.3F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 67.3 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.92
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.31
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.90
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.71
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.35
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2532.8
Taste-profile overlap0.156.6
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.8
Demographic alignment0.1010.1
Geographic footprint0.104.9
Momentumnot measured–
F67.3

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.26), On (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.23).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Innovative, Active, Comfort, Minimalist, fitness, Sporty.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Altra Running’s audience embraces them.

Music0.87
Embraced: Trampled by Turtles, John Moreland, Jason Isbell · Least shared: Lukas Nelson & Promise of the Real, Tom Petty, Mudcrutch
TV0.92
Embraced: Naked and Afraid, Naked and Afraid XL, Alone Australia · Least shared: Supermarket Sweep, Claim to Fame, The Real World
Film0.91
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Meru, Free Solo · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, The Peanut Butter Falcon
Podcasts0.89
Embraced: Boundless Life, The Rich Roll Podcast, Running On Om · Least shared: The Proof with Simon Hill, The Genius Life, The Tim Ferriss Show

Taste profile overlap

27 of 73 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
folkTourist attractionindierockfriendshipcountryAlternative RockPark
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Fries, Bar

Altra Running only

Wings, Food, Chicken Wings, bluegrass, satire comedy

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Altra Running
-0.78-0.390.00+0.39+0.78≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Altra Running strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Boise, Tucson, Salt Lake City, Memphis, Las Vegas, Louisville, Nashville, Phoenix

Shared strongholds

Virginia Beach, Portland, Seattle

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

IC memo

Number check passed: 10 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written from the ledger template

Altra Running: ADVANCE

VC thesis screen for HOKA. Ranked #6 of 8 on composite audience fit. Composite fit F 67.3. Rule: F 67.3 >= 67 and no red flags.

MetricValueCoverage
Two-way audience affinity0.92full
Taste-profile overlap0.31full
Cross-domain agreement0.90full
Demographic alignment0.71full
Geographic footprint0.35full
Momentumn/anot measured

Shared taste. Both audiences over-index on: folk, Tourist attraction, indie, rock, friendship. Across culture. The buyer audience's favourites this audience embraces most. Music: Trampled by Turtles, John Moreland; TV: Naked and Afraid, Naked and Afraid XL; Film: The Dawn Wall, Meru; Podcasts: Boundless Life, The Rich Roll Podcast. Footprint white space. Metros where the target's audience over-indexes and the buyer's doesn't: Boise, Tucson, Salt Lake City, Memphis, Las Vegas.

Red flags. None raised by the code rules.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok34 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok6702 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t3-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
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   "b": 0.8996699251888457,
   "ratio": 0.9592940087110599,
   "value": 0.9183613293246399,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.9340017562941862
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.9212170704205253
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.9130316251665765
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8304292488740947
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9318242178599573,
   "b": 0.8942579218903515,
   "ratio": 0.9596907599606054,
   "value": 0.9126545976467968
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.30903490759753593,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:bar",
     "name": "Bar",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
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     "name": "Wings",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:chicken_wings",
     "name": "Chicken Wings",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:bluegrass",
     "name": "bluegrass",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:satire_comedy",
     "name": "satire comedy",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 73,
   "sharedCount": 27,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "sharedCount": 25.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41250000000000003
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8971203580508811,
   "domains": [
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     "clash": [
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      },
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       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8455315075347535
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       "name": "Mudcrutch",
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      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8716961788487965,
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       "affinity": 0.9021702398287559
      },
      {
       "name": "John Moreland",
       "affinity": 0.8975361647440746
      },
      {
       "name": "Jason Isbell",
       "affinity": 0.8931457344767952
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Supermarket Sweep",
       "affinity": 0.8933176257610381
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       "affinity": 0.8955163535358626
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     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9224247107801502,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "Naked and Afraid XL",
       "affinity": 0.9642529204484998
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    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
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    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
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   "domains[3].score": 0.8872262523719755
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 {
  "id": "t3-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
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    "female": -0.33,
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    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
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    "female": -0.43,
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    "30_to_34": -0.62,
    "35_to_44": -0.51,
    "45_to_54": 0.48,
    "55_and_older": 0.17,
    "24_and_younger": -0.18
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   "biggestGap": {
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    "bucket": "55_and_older",
    "target": 0.17
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 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
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    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
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    {
     "lat": 40.7608,
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     "metro": "Salt Lake City",
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    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
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     "metro": "Memphis",
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    {
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    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
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     "metro": "Louisville",
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     "targetRel": 0.04085482028165499
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    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
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     "buyer": 0.8297116121273177,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.8684245693077214,
     "buyerRel": 0.00036454154250431525,
     "targetRel": 0.039077498722908
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.4484,
     "lon": -112.074,
     "buyer": 0.908067641943434,
     "metro": "Phoenix",
     "target": 0.9561578121234978,
     "buyerRel": -0.009012747998864645,
     "targetRel": 0.03907742218119914
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   ],
   "correlation": -0.3071221849583606,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
     "lon": -75.978,
     "buyer": 0.8930670085141974,
     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.9078655865135047,
     "buyerRel": 0.03091875457324833,
     "targetRel": 0.04571733257255561
    },
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
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     "buyer": 0.9426367608309525,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.9555895110584239,
     "buyerRel": 0.024807045278702367,
     "targetRel": 0.03775979550617381
    },
    {
     "lat": 47.6062,
     "lon": -122.3321,
     "buyer": 0.9444292433593009,
     "metro": "Seattle",
     "target": 0.9539891402143675,
     "buyerRel": 0.022946437044926937,
     "targetRel": 0.03250633389999358
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   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 10,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4686152548508794,
   "correlation": -0.06276949029824112
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 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Altra Running",
  "data": {
   "name": "Altra Running",
   "drivers": [
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     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.2595401185879738
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.2559875140394286
    },
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.2537129450489651
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.23075942232363247
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Slovakia"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.8697004627824584,
   "screenRank": 3,
   "foundedYear": 2009,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    100,
    200
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "VF Corporation",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9378458710460132,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Hoka",
    "Salomon",
    "Saucony",
    "La Sportiva",
    "Brooks"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [
    {
     "name": "Innovative",
     "score": 0.7274399203995217
    },
    {
     "name": "Active",
     "score": 0.7273849283473037
    },
    {
     "name": "Comfort",
     "score": 0.7269974948214394
    },
    {
     "name": "Minimalist",
     "score": 0.7254190156528867
    },
    {
     "name": "fitness",
     "score": 0.7231020021458361
    },
    {
     "name": "Sporty",
     "score": 0.7230024942765987
    }
   ],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Pleasures"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Performance-focused technical footwear brand catering to runners and hikers who value ergonomic design and biomechanical innovation."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 67.27529078701399,
   "points": {
    "m1": 32.79861890445142,
    "m2": 6.62217659137577,
    "m3": 12.816005115012587,
    "m4": 10.08936292587677,
    "m5": 4.949127250297425,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.7
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 67.89531664857634,
   "coverage": 0.7000000000000001
  }
 }
]