Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #1 of 8

Saucony

A premium performance running brand that balances technical innovation with heritage, catering to dedicated runners seeking reliable, high-cushioning footwear.

Founded 1898 · Parent: Wolverine World Wide, Inc. · Competes with Brooks Running, Asics, Hoka, New Balance · Partnerships: ID.me

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
75.5F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 75.5 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.90
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.34
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.90
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.96
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.65
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2532.3
Taste-profile overlap0.157.3
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.8
Demographic alignment0.1013.8
Geographic footprint0.109.3
Momentumnot measured–
F75.5

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.25), On (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.23).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Fashion, Footwear, Innovative, Active, comfortable, Sustainability.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Saucony’s audience embraces them.

Music0.85
Embraced: Alabama Shakes, Tom Petty, Dawes · Least shared: Charley Crockett, Lukas Nelson & Promise of the Real, Billy Strings
TV0.95
Embraced: The Amazing Race, Survivor, Naked and Afraid · Least shared: Old Enough!, Claim to Fame, The Real World
Film0.89
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, Meru · Least shared: The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, This Mountain Life, Torn
Podcasts0.90
Embraced: The Rich Roll Podcast, Boundless Life, Running On Om · Least shared: On Coaching with Magness & Marcus, FoundMyFitness, The Genius Life

Taste profile overlap

27 of 73 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
indierockfolkTourist attractionAlternative Rockfriendshipelectroniccountry
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Fries, Bar

Saucony only

Guacamole Chips, Hip Hop, Running store, Christian Music, Food

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Saucony
-0.78-0.390.00+0.39+0.78≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Saucony strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Atlanta, Indianapolis, Columbus, Miami, Cincinnati, Houston

Shared strongholds

Cleveland, Virginia Beach, Baltimore, Pittsburgh

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

IC memo

Number check passed: 10 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written from the ledger template

Saucony: ADVANCE

VC thesis screen for HOKA. Ranked #1 of 8 on composite audience fit. Composite fit F 75.5. Rule: F 75.5 >= 67 and no red flags.

MetricValueCoverage
Two-way audience affinity0.90full
Taste-profile overlap0.34full
Cross-domain agreement0.90full
Demographic alignment0.96full
Geographic footprint0.65full
Momentumn/anot measured

Shared taste. Both audiences over-index on: indie, rock, folk, Tourist attraction, Alternative Rock. Across culture. The buyer audience's favourites this audience embraces most. Music: Alabama Shakes, Tom Petty; TV: The Amazing Race, Survivor; Film: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo; Podcasts: The Rich Roll Podcast, Boundless Life. Footprint white space. Metros where the target's audience over-indexes and the buyer's doesn't: Atlanta, Indianapolis, Columbus, Miami, Cincinnati.

Red flags. None raised by the code rules.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok40 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok6666 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t7-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9240619078885661,
   "b": 0.8865843448870518,
   "ratio": 0.9594425842234439,
   "value": 0.9049352627379162,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.9387398587505278
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.9019701887683635
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8981673538258815
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8074599782034342
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9318242178599573,
   "b": 0.8942579218903515,
   "ratio": 0.9596907599606054,
   "value": 0.9126545976467968
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.33998949027850756,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:bar",
     "name": "Bar",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:guacamole_chips",
     "name": "Guacamole Chips",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:running_store",
     "name": "Running store",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:christian_music",
     "name": "Christian Music",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 73,
   "sharedCount": 27,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.45
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.2923883996049556,
   "sharedCount": 25.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41250000000000003
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8965303820275261,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Charley Crockett",
       "affinity": 0.8217742423125521
      },
      {
       "name": "Lukas Nelson & Promise of the Real",
       "affinity": 0.8227515822171318
      },
      {
       "name": "Billy Strings",
       "affinity": 0.8246515652838103
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8479662805385146,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Alabama Shakes",
       "affinity": 0.8781991187890468
      },
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8672476952249607
      },
      {
       "name": "Dawes",
       "affinity": 0.8665347950121497
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.9288203953125487
      },
      {
       "name": "Claim to Fame",
       "affinity": 0.9302639618869029
      },
      {
       "name": "The Real World",
       "affinity": 0.9312129257503154
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9477332283150842,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Amazing Race",
       "affinity": 0.9809633048223882
      },
      {
       "name": "Survivor",
       "affinity": 0.9711146396572217
      },
      {
       "name": "Naked and Afraid",
       "affinity": 0.9651172997597823
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley",
       "affinity": 0.8590603952096222
      },
      {
       "name": "This Mountain Life",
       "affinity": 0.8614445027560493
      },
      {
       "name": "Torn",
       "affinity": 0.8689900575143994
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8872838409800718,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Dawn Wall",
       "affinity": 0.9263214449776138
      },
      {
       "name": "Free Solo",
       "affinity": 0.9196140393568719
      },
      {
       "name": "Meru",
       "affinity": 0.9192155866874572
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "On Coaching with Magness & Marcus",
       "affinity": 0.8813070165758696
      },
      {
       "name": "FoundMyFitness",
       "affinity": 0.8836726777058552
      },
      {
       "name": "The Genius Life",
       "affinity": 0.8849051994454827
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.903138178276434,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Rich Roll Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9753439213190145
      },
      {
       "name": "Boundless Life",
       "affinity": 0.930843522605568
      },
      {
       "name": "Running On Om",
       "affinity": 0.9280052119868724
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8895360570163606,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8671579273614827,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9184741196444983,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8852859286874863,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8872262523719755
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.33,
    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.9641081403811506,
   "cosine": 0.9282162807623011,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.29,
    "female": -0.29,
    "25_to_29": -0.25,
    "30_to_34": -0.6000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": 0.36,
    "45_to_54": 0.37,
    "55_and_older": -0.75,
    "24_and_younger": -0.17
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": -0.3025,
    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": -0.6000000000000001
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6743017600086788,
   "cosine": 0.34860352001735756
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.6486633953252868,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 33.749,
     "lon": -84.388,
     "buyer": 0.846706920331274,
     "metro": "Atlanta",
     "target": 0.9141948724009903,
     "buyerRel": -0.00019490616335715583,
     "targetRel": 0.0672930459063591
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.7684,
     "lon": -86.1581,
     "buyer": 0.8540164668100355,
     "metro": "Indianapolis",
     "target": 0.9109002068608653,
     "buyerRel": 0.002624365856524813,
     "targetRel": 0.05950810590735456
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.9612,
     "lon": -82.9988,
     "buyer": 0.8547156102257165,
     "metro": "Columbus",
     "target": 0.910385381822017,
     "buyerRel": 0.002110285898252573,
     "targetRel": 0.05778005749455306
    },
    {
     "lat": 25.7617,
     "lon": -80.1918,
     "buyer": 0.8162518123316667,
     "metro": "Miami",
     "target": 0.9352932040929609,
     "buyerRel": -0.06732010762979201,
     "targetRel": 0.05172128413150223
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.1031,
     "lon": -84.512,
     "buyer": 0.8515095203703348,
     "metro": "Cincinnati",
     "target": 0.9011018606530468,
     "buyerRel": 0.0014665050436224458,
     "targetRel": 0.05105884532633442
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.7604,
     "lon": -95.3698,
     "buyer": 0.8757422357900101,
     "metro": "Houston",
     "target": 0.9240943035506821,
     "buyerRel": 0.0015897471829543486,
     "targetRel": 0.04994181494362637
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.2973267906505737,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 41.4993,
     "lon": -81.6944,
     "buyer": 0.9095332748721432,
     "metro": "Cleveland",
     "target": 0.9524668065311699,
     "buyerRel": 0.027679371140028275,
     "targetRel": 0.07061290279905497
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
     "lon": -75.978,
     "buyer": 0.8930670085141974,
     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.9154078513736483,
     "buyerRel": 0.03091875457324833,
     "targetRel": 0.05325959743269926
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.2904,
     "lon": -76.6122,
     "buyer": 0.9297448853864333,
     "metro": "Baltimore",
     "target": 0.9363604830932011,
     "buyerRel": 0.03860167398245573,
     "targetRel": 0.045217271689223515
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.4406,
     "lon": -79.9959,
     "buyer": 0.8767029097139056,
     "metro": "Pittsburgh",
     "target": 0.9053832394271194,
     "buyerRel": 0.026808800073103045,
     "targetRel": 0.055489129786316815
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 6,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4686152548508794,
   "correlation": -0.06276949029824112
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Saucony",
  "data": {
   "name": "Saucony",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.2647068674752317
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.25433851668203994
    },
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.2532661892254327
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.22768842661729555
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9597735247749657,
   "screenRank": 7,
   "foundedYear": 1898,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    75,
    250
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Wolverine World Wide, Inc.",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9240619078885661,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Brooks Running",
    "Asics",
    "Hoka",
    "New Balance",
    "Nike"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [
    {
     "name": "Fashion",
     "score": 0.7307481702311143
    },
    {
     "name": "Footwear",
     "score": 0.7301438218533568
    },
    {
     "name": "Innovative",
     "score": 0.7274399203995217
    },
    {
     "name": "Active",
     "score": 0.7273849283473037
    },
    {
     "name": "comfortable",
     "score": 0.7244742811018416
    },
    {
     "name": "Sustainability",
     "score": 0.724114287756014
    }
   ],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "ID.me"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "A premium performance running brand that balances technical innovation with heritage, catering to dedicated runners seeking reliable, high-cushioning footwear."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 75.45177585709308,
   "points": {
    "m1": 32.31911652635416,
    "m2": 7.285489077396591,
    "m3": 12.807576886107517,
    "m4": 13.772973434016436,
    "m5": 9.266619933218383,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.7
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 67.89531664857634,
   "coverage": 0.7000000000000001
  }
 }
]