Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #8 of 8

Maurten

Premium, science-first sports nutrition provider for serious endurance athletes seeking optimized performance and gastrointestinal tolerance.

Founded 2015 · Competes with Gu Energy Labs, SiS, Hammer Nutrition, Skratch Labs · Partnerships: Major Marathons, IRONMAN, L'Étape Du Tour De France

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
62.1F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 62.1 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.92
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.22
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.86
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.58
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.29
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2532.7
Taste-profile overlap0.154.7
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.2
Demographic alignment0.108.3
Geographic footprint0.104.2
Momentumnot measured–
F62.1

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are On (0.26), HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.23).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Maurten’s audience embraces them.

Music0.78
Embraced: John Moreland, Jason Isbell, Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit · Least shared: Shakey Graves, The New Basement Tapes, Greyhounds
TV0.88
Embraced: Old Enough!, World's Toughest Race: Eco-Challenge Fiji, Race Across the World · Least shared: The Challenge, Survivor, American Ninja Warrior
Film0.86
Embraced: Torn, The Alpinist, 14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible · Least shared: Becoming Warren Buffett, Iron Cowboy, The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young
Podcasts0.91
Embraced: I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, Ali on the Run Show, C Tolle Run · Least shared: The Tim Ferriss Show, FoundMyFitness, The Proof with Simon Hill

Taste profile overlap

20 of 80 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
indierockfolkTourist attractionelectronicParkRestaurantAlternative Rock
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, friend, Fries

Maurten only

Yakitori, Personal Development, house, Sports complex, Hip Hop

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Maurten
-0.78-0.390.00+0.39+0.78≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Maurten strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Miami, Albuquerque, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Orlando, San Francisco, San Diego

Shared strongholds

New York, Portland

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

IC memo

Number check passed: 11 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written from the ledger template

Maurten: WATCH

VC thesis screen for HOKA. Ranked #8 of 8 on composite audience fit. Composite fit F 62.1. Rule: F 62.1 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

MetricValueCoverage
Two-way audience affinity0.92full
Taste-profile overlap0.22full
Cross-domain agreement0.86full
Demographic alignment0.58full
Geographic footprint0.29full
Momentumn/anot measured

Shared taste. Both audiences over-index on: indie, rock, folk, Tourist attraction, electronic. Across culture. The buyer audience's favourites this audience embraces most. Music: John Moreland, Jason Isbell; TV: Old Enough!, World's Toughest Race: Eco-Challenge Fiji; Film: Torn, The Alpinist; Podcasts: I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, Ali on the Run Show. Footprint white space. Metros where the target's audience over-indexes and the buyer's doesn't: Miami, Albuquerque, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles.

Red flags. None raised by the code rules.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok3083 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t4-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
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   "b": 0.8968952812618882,
   "ratio": 0.9595060407100776,
   "value": 0.9154299732976328,
   "reverse": [
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     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.9238212754039677
    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
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     "affinity": 0.9237498076239031
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.9051335978317925
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
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    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9318242178599573,
   "b": 0.8942579218903515,
   "ratio": 0.9596907599606054,
   "value": 0.9126545976467968
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.22009569377990423,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant",
     "name": "Restaurant",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:yakitori",
     "name": "Yakitori",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:personal_development",
     "name": "Personal Development",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
     "name": "house",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:sports_complex",
     "name": "Sports complex",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 80,
   "sharedCount": 20,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "sharedCount": 25.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41250000000000003
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8558825748923317,
   "domains": [
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     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "Shakey Graves",
       "affinity": 0.7215505466864278
      },
      {
       "name": "The New Basement Tapes",
       "affinity": 0.743667145376487
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      {
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     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.7778876911599462,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "John Moreland",
       "affinity": 0.8288810522674541
      },
      {
       "name": "Jason Isbell",
       "affinity": 0.8239192533525174
      },
      {
       "name": "Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit",
       "affinity": 0.8236306941610128
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.8487260165436762
      },
      {
       "name": "Survivor",
       "affinity": 0.8520870390620033
      },
      {
       "name": "American Ninja Warrior",
       "affinity": 0.8522143507666244
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.8771026859982137,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.9115647691695439
      },
      {
       "name": "World's Toughest Race: Eco-Challenge Fiji",
       "affinity": 0.9004986491739153
      },
      {
       "name": "Race Across the World",
       "affinity": 0.8960451675144047
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "Becoming Warren Buffett",
       "affinity": 0.8254251973911724
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      {
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       "affinity": 0.8265309448978657
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       "name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
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     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8625324630559432,
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       "affinity": 0.9018758774521148
      },
      {
       "name": "The Alpinist",
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      {
       "name": "14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible",
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     ],
     "expected": 25,
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    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
       "affinity": 0.8407360142489958
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      {
       "name": "FoundMyFitness",
       "affinity": 0.8522307252123111
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      {
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     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
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     "shared": [
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       "affinity": 0.9662183811125999
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      {
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[2].score": 0.8852859286874863,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8872262523719755
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 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
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    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
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   "value": 0.5801771246019849,
   "cosine": 0.16035424920396973,
   "target": {
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    "female": -0.63,
    "25_to_29": -0.45,
    "30_to_34": 0,
    "35_to_44": 0.46,
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    "55_and_older": 0.14,
    "24_and_younger": 0.66
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
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    "bucket": "45_to_54",
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 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
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   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
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    {
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    {
     "lat": 40.7608,
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     "metro": "Salt Lake City",
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    {
     "lat": 36.1699,
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    {
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     "metro": "Los Angeles",
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     "buyerRel": -0.020546524423029955,
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    {
     "lat": 28.5383,
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     "metro": "Orlando",
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     "buyerRel": -0.03752743959191707,
     "targetRel": -0.129264205417552
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    {
     "lat": 37.7749,
     "lon": -122.4194,
     "buyer": 0.9293970794413613,
     "metro": "San Francisco",
     "target": 0.7908533824239228,
     "buyerRel": -0.0005559158748891235,
     "targetRel": -0.13909961289232764
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.7157,
     "lon": -117.1611,
     "buyer": 0.923580355741573,
     "metro": "San Diego",
     "target": 0.7963262913949274,
     "buyerRel": -0.012446159706746895,
     "targetRel": -0.13970022405339255
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   ],
   "correlation": -0.41378403970552724,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 40.7128,
     "lon": -74.006,
     "buyer": 0.9382406221219367,
     "metro": "New York",
     "target": 0.7967821574856301,
     "buyerRel": 0.022442831207490355,
     "targetRel": -0.11901563342881627
    },
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.9426367608309525,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.7541818812012171,
     "buyerRel": 0.024807045278702367,
     "targetRel": -0.16364783435103303
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   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 8,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4686152548508794,
   "correlation": -0.06276949029824112
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 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Maurten",
  "data": {
   "name": "Maurten",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.2575053338735922
    },
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.25748541299164596
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.25229634293490577
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.23271291019985596
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Europe"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.7295604414232679,
   "screenRank": 4,
   "foundedYear": 2015,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    35,
    100
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.934746883509087,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Gu Energy Labs",
    "SiS",
    "Hammer Nutrition",
    "Skratch Labs",
    "Precision Hydration"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Major Marathons",
    "IRONMAN",
    "L'Étape Du Tour De France",
    "PTO"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium, science-first sports nutrition provider for serious endurance athletes seeking optimized performance and gastrointestinal tolerance."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 62.112659336507015,
   "points": {
    "m1": 32.6939276177726,
    "m2": 4.7163362952836625,
    "m3": 12.226893927033311,
    "m4": 8.288244637171212,
    "m5": 4.187256859246234,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.7
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 67.89531664857634,
   "coverage": 0.7000000000000001
  }
 }
]