Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #1 of 8

Strava

The leading social network and performance analytics hub for endurance athletes and everyday fitness enthusiasts.

Founded 2009 · Parent: Strava, Inc. · Competes with Garmin, Nike Run Club, MapMyRun, TrainingPeaks · Partnerships: Runna

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
71.9F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 71.9 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.88
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.33
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.89
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.90
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.56
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2531.3
Taste-profile overlap0.157.0
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.7
Demographic alignment0.1012.9
Geographic footprint0.108.0
Momentumnot measured–
F71.9

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are On (0.27), HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.23).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Strava’s audience embraces them.

Music0.83
Embraced: Alabama Shakes, John Moreland, Jason Isbell · Least shared: Greensky Bluegrass, Lukas Nelson & Promise of the Real, Charley Crockett
TV0.94
Embraced: Forged in Fire, American Ninja Warrior, BattleBots · Least shared: Old Enough!, Claim to Fame, Better Late Than Never
Film0.91
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, Meru · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, Finding Jack Charlton
Podcasts0.88
Embraced: The Rich Roll Podcast, Boundless Life, The Tim Ferriss Show · Least shared: I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, Hurdle, Ali on the Run Show

Taste profile overlap

26 of 74 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
rockbritishindiefolkTourist attractionAlternative RockelectronicPark
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, Fries, Bar, Steak Tartare

Strava only

england, satire, london england, Steak Frites, british

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Strava
-0.81-0.410.00+0.41+0.81≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Strava strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Tucson, Sacramento, San Jose, San Francisco, Boise

Shared strongholds

Hartford, Virginia Beach, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Anchorage, Portland

Bull vs bear

10 of 10 claims survived the judge; 0 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Cross-domain agreement exceeds the shortlist average, led by TV, Film and Podcasts, where shared audience affinities include endurance-adjacent titles like The Dawn Wall and The Rich Roll Podcast.

    t8-m3.value = 0.8877t8-m3.domains[2].score = 0.9055t8-m3.domains[3].score = 0.8753t8-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9408

  • Taste-profile overlap beats the shortlist: more shared taste tags and a lower share of HOKA's top-20 tags missing from Strava's audience profile.

    t8-m2.value = 0.3274t8-m2.sharedCount = 26t8-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35

  • Geographic footprint is above the shortlist average and metro-level affinity correlation is positive versus a negative shortlist average, suggesting the aggregate audiences concentrate in overlapping markets.

    t8-m5.value = 0.563t8-m5.correlation = 0.1259

  • The composite score sits above the shortlist average, with coverage also above average, supporting Strava as a relatively strong candidate on the measured dimensions.

    t8-score.F = 71.95t8-score.coverage = 0.7

  • Demographic alignment is a standout strength: the aggregate age/gender affinity profiles of HOKA and Strava audiences align at a cosine well above the shortlist average, with both over-indexing on the 45-54 bucket.

    t8-m4.value = 0.9038t8-m4.cosine = 0.8076t8-m4.target.45_to_54 = 0.56

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • The momentum metric has zero coverage, so there is no trending evidence for or against Strava's trajectory. This gap must be closed in diligence before a VC thesis is underwritten.

    t8-m6.coverage = 0

  • Strava's audience shows slightly stronger aggregate affinity for On than for HOKA, and both reverse affinities trail the shortlist. HOKA does not hold a distinctive position in this audience, so the committee should check competitive exposure before committing.

    t8-m1.reverse[0].affinity = 0.9151t8-m1.b = 0.8591

  • Cross-domain agreement in music trails the shortlist: the score is 0.8291 against a 0.8646 average. This points to weaker aggregate cultural overlap for music-led co-marketing.

    t8-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8291

  • Two-way audience affinity, the largest driver of the composite, sits below the shortlist average: the combined value is 0.8763 against a 0.8957 average, and HOKA-to-Strava affinity is 0.8943 against 0.9142.

    t8-m1.value = 0.8763t8-m1.a = 0.8943

  • Within demographics, the 35-44 bucket diverges most: the buyer audience over-indexes there while Strava's audience under-indexes. That gap is a segment to examine before assuming a shared customer base.

    t8-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.52t8-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.155

IC memo

Number check passed: 11 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-opus-5-5 (after one repair pass)

Strava: ADVANCE

Recommendation Advance Strava to diligence. It ranks 1 of 8 on the run-club culture screen under the verdict rule: F 71.9 >= 67 and no red flags. Momentum is unmeasured, so this supports diligence, not yet an underwritten thesis.

Where the audiences meet

  • Demographics: This is the standout strength. The aggregate age/gender affinity profiles align at a cosine of 0.81, well above the shortlist average. Both audiences over-index on the mid-forties to mid-fifties bucket.
  • Cross-domain culture: Agreement beats the shortlist, led by TV, Film and Podcasts. Shared audience affinities include The Dawn Wall, Free Solo and The Rich Roll Podcast.
  • Taste profile: The audiences share more taste tags than the shortlist average. A smaller share of HOKA's top tags is missing from Strava's audience profile than the shortlist norm. Shared tags include indie, folk and Park.
  • Geography: The footprint is above average. Metro-level affinity correlation is positive (0.13), while the shortlist average is negative. Shared strongholds include Portland, Baltimore and Milwaukee.

Risks

  • Momentum: This metric has zero coverage. Qloo has no trending history for the window ending 2026-10-24, so there is no evidence on trajectory either way.
  • Competitive exposure: Strava's audience shows slightly stronger aggregate affinity for On than for HOKA, and both reverse affinities trail the shortlist. HOKA does not hold a distinctive position in this audience.
  • Two-way affinity: This is the largest composite driver, and it sits below the shortlist average (0.88 vs 0.90).
  • Music: Cross-domain agreement in music trails the shortlist (0.83 vs 0.86). This is weaker ground for music-led co-marketing.
  • Mid-thirties to mid-forties segment: The HOKA audience over-indexes on this bucket, while Strava's audience under-indexes.

Diligence questions

  • What trending or engagement data can close the momentum gap before a VC thesis is underwritten?
  • How exposed is HOKA to On within Strava's audience? Could a co-branded pilot show whether HOKA can build a distinctive position?
  • Why does two-way affinity trail the shortlist despite strong demographic and cultural alignment?
  • How significant is the mid-thirties to mid-forties divergence for HOKA's core segment?
  • Should co-marketing lean on endurance film and podcasts rather than music?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 215 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 215 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 214 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 214 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 337 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 360 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 362 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 374 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 450 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 626 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 1412 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 1675 ms
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok7428 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t8-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8942733009115911,
   "b": 0.8590785617501776,
   "ratio": 0.9606443140754206,
   "value": 0.8763227022697307,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.9151260961769193
    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.8767922531211794
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.8488010569534327
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.795594840749179
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9142067566664733,
   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
   "ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.32743362831858414,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:bar",
     "name": "Bar",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:steak_tartare",
     "name": "Steak Tartare",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:england",
     "name": "england",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:satire",
     "name": "satire",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:london_england",
     "name": "london england",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:steak_frites",
     "name": "Steak Frites",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 74,
   "sharedCount": 26,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.27871786779809044,
   "sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8876687548470068,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Greensky Bluegrass",
       "affinity": 0.7993986757641138
      },
      {
       "name": "Lukas Nelson & Promise of the Real",
       "affinity": 0.8014666765081568
      },
      {
       "name": "Charley Crockett",
       "affinity": 0.8044792695859966
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8291217366946012,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Alabama Shakes",
       "affinity": 0.8798230306369047
      },
      {
       "name": "John Moreland",
       "affinity": 0.8630602278594157
      },
      {
       "name": "Jason Isbell",
       "affinity": 0.8625070842129058
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.9108678210376038
      },
      {
       "name": "Claim to Fame",
       "affinity": 0.9143247094063419
      },
      {
       "name": "Better Late Than Never",
       "affinity": 0.9219020896855726
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9408293552457354,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "Forged in Fire",
       "affinity": 0.9611274465003812
      },
      {
       "name": "American Ninja Warrior",
       "affinity": 0.9608808701139832
      },
      {
       "name": "BattleBots",
       "affinity": 0.960373493132399
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     ],
     "expected": 25,
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    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "Dark Waters",
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      {
       "name": "The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley",
       "affinity": 0.8901516429805079
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       "name": "Finding Jack Charlton",
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      {
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      {
       "name": "Meru",
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     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8101477930303531
      },
      {
       "name": "Hurdle",
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       "name": "Ali on the Run Show",
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     "label": "Podcasts",
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     "shared": [
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       "name": "The Rich Roll Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9786413374146916
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      {
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       "affinity": 0.9476396036272086
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      {
       "name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
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    }
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   "coverage": 1
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
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 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
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    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.9037768402178712,
   "cosine": 0.8075536804357425,
   "target": {
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    "female": -0.65,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": -0.52,
    "45_to_54": 0.56,
    "55_and_older": -0.81,
    "24_and_younger": -0.18
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
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    "bucket": "35_to_44",
    "target": -0.52
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  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "cosine": 0.31297951360243037
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 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
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   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
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    {
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     "metro": "Sacramento",
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    {
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    {
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    {
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     "metro": "Boise",
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     "targetRel": 0.05015110642788845
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   ],
   "correlation": 0.12590268770245383,
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     "metro": "Hartford",
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     "targetRel": 0.05192507275398972
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
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     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.8826394792952863,
     "buyerRel": 0.0700605585580869,
     "targetRel": 0.0596330293391758
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.2904,
     "lon": -76.6122,
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     "metro": "Baltimore",
     "target": 0.9190862336969375,
     "buyerRel": 0.06916254301313696,
     "targetRel": 0.0585038913236412
    },
    {
     "lat": 43.0389,
     "lon": -87.9065,
     "buyer": 0.9307328833748337,
     "metro": "Milwaukee",
     "target": 0.9302178082974478,
     "buyerRel": 0.06045229007822128,
     "targetRel": 0.059937215000835375
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.8988125680292488,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.923091726629481,
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     "targetRel": 0.06723200330609302
    },
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
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     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.954207719137616,
     "buyerRel": 0.04601439043401434,
     "targetRel": 0.05758534874067789
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 5,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.460515719992653,
   "correlation": -0.07896856001469411
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
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  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
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 {
  "id": "t8-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Strava",
  "data": {
   "name": "Strava",
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     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.2663103634877576
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   ],
   "ownership": "independent",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "United Kingdom",
    "France",
    "Germany",
    "Japan"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9590361241545321,
   "screenRank": 13,
   "foundedYear": 2009,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
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   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Strava, Inc.",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8942733009115911,
   "competitorBrands": [
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    "Wahoo Fitness"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
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   ],
   "marketPositioning": "The leading social network and performance analytics hub for endurance athletes and everyday fitness enthusiasts."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
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   "points": {
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    "m2": 7.016434892541089,
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "coverage": 0.68125
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 }
]