Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #4 of 8

Cotopaxi

A purpose-driven outdoor brand offering high-performance, vibrant gear at a premium price point for environmentally aware adventure enthusiasts.

Founded 2014 · Competes with Patagonia, The North Face, Osprey, Arc'teryx · Partnerships: Cotopaxi Foundation

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
67.9F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 67.9 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.89
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.32
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.88
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.60
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.58
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2531.7
Taste-profile overlap0.156.8
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.6
Demographic alignment0.108.6
Geographic footprint0.108.2
Momentumnot measured–
F67.9

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Tracksmith (0.25), HOKA (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.25), On (0.25).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Active, Sustainability, Functional, Eco-conscious individuals, Functional, Colorful.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Cotopaxi’s audience embraces them.

Music0.89
Embraced: Houndmouth, Rayland Baxter, Dawes · Least shared: Tom Petty, Mudcrutch, Tedeschi Trucks Band
TV0.92
Embraced: Naked and Afraid, Naked and Afraid XL, Forged in Fire · Least shared: American Gladiators, The Real World, The Challenge
Film0.91
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, Meru · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, Finding Jack Charlton
Podcasts0.80
Embraced: Choose Strong, Ali on the Run Show, Work, Play, Love with Lauren Fleshman and Jesse Thomas · Least shared: Endurance Planet, Fitness Confidential, FoundMyFitness

Taste profile overlap

23 of 77 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
indiefolkfriendfriendshipTourist attractionAlternative RockrockPark
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Fries, Steak Tartare

Cotopaxi only

Fish Chips, lesbian, Food, new york city, Sandwich

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Cotopaxi
-0.87-0.430.00+0.43+0.87≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Cotopaxi strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Boise, Birmingham, Nashville, Memphis, Oklahoma City

Shared strongholds

New Orleans, Anchorage, Virginia Beach, Pittsburgh, Minneapolis

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Geographic footprint is a standout strength: the aggregate audience geo score and metro correlation both sit well above the shortlist averages, with shared strongholds such as Minneapolis where both audiences over-index.

    t5-m5.value = 0.5753t5-m5.correlation = 0.1506t5-m5.strongholds[4].targetRel = 0.09267

  • Taste-profile overlap beats the shortlist average, and a smaller share of HOKA's top-20 tastes is missing from Cotopaxi's audience profile than is typical (lower is better).

    t5-m2.value = 0.3192t5-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35

  • Cross-domain agreement is above average, led by film, where the audiences share affinity for adventure documentaries like The Dawn Wall, and by music.

    t5-m3.value = 0.8805t5-m3.domains[2].score = 0.9061t5-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8934t5-m3.domains[2].shared[0].affinity = 0.9686

  • The overall composite score edges above the shortlist average, with better-than-average data coverage.

    t5-score.F = 67.93t5-score.coverage = 0.7

  • Affinity is balanced in both directions: the two-way ratio is slightly above the shortlist average, so neither audience's affinity is markedly lopsided.

    t5-m1.ratio = 0.9609

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Demographic alignment is the weakest link: the aggregate age/gender profiles barely point the same way, with cosine below the shortlist average; HOKA's audience over-indexes on 45-54 while Cotopaxi's under-indexes there.

    t5-m4.cosine = 0.2002t5-m4.value = 0.6001t5-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.455t5-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.6

  • Momentum is unobservable: Qloo returned no trending history, so the composite rests on partial coverage and the committee cannot tell whether Cotopaxi's audience affinity is rising or fading; diligence on trajectory is needed first.

    t5-m6.coverage = 0t5-score.coverage = 0.7

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "coverage" = 0.7 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.6813)

  • Two-way audience affinity, the largest driver of the composite, sits below the shortlist average in both directions, so the headline score leans on a metric where this pair is merely average-minus.

    t5-m1.value = 0.8881t5-m1.a = 0.9061t5-m1.b = 0.8707

  • Taste-profile overlap is thin in absolute terms: only 23 of 77 taste tags are shared, at or below the shortlist average count.

    t5-m2.sharedCount = 23t5-m2.unionCount = 77

  • The overall composite only marginally clears the shortlist average, offering little margin of safety for a VC thesis.

    t5-score.F = 67.93

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 67.9267 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (66.8962)

IC memo

Number check passed: 8 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-opus-5-5 (after one repair pass)

Cotopaxi: ADVANCE

Recommendation Advance Cotopaxi, ranked 4 of 8 in the run-club culture thesis screen. The deciding rule: F 67.9 >= 67 and no red flags. The composite edges above the shortlist average with better-than-average data coverage, but it leans on metrics where this pair is only average.

Where the audiences meet

  • Geography: The aggregate geo score and metro correlation both sit well above shortlist averages. Both audiences over-index in shared strongholds such as Minneapolis, Pittsburgh and Anchorage.
  • Taste profile: Overlap beats the shortlist average. A smaller share of HOKA's top-20 tastes is missing from Cotopaxi's audience profile than is typical. Shared tags include indie, folk and parks.
  • Cross-domain: Agreement is above average. Film leads, with shared audience affinity for adventure documentaries such as The Dawn Wall, Free Solo and Meru. Music follows, with artists such as Houndmouth and Dawes.
  • Balance: The two-way affinity ratio sits slightly above the shortlist average. HOKA ranks among the top brands in reverse affinity from Cotopaxi's audience, alongside Tracksmith and On.

Risks

  • Demographics are the weakest link. The aggregate age and gender profiles barely point the same way, and cosine is below the shortlist average. HOKA's audience over-indexes on the mid-forties-to-mid-fifties bracket, while Cotopaxi's under-indexes there.
  • Affinity is below average in both directions. Two-way affinity is the largest driver of the composite, yet it trails the shortlist average in both directions.
  • Taste overlap is thin in absolute terms. Only 23 of 77 taste tags are shared, at or below the shortlist average count.
  • Momentum is missing. Qloo has no trending history for the window ending 2026-10-24.
  • Thesis fit is indirect. Cotopaxi is positioned as an outdoor brand, and its competitors include Patagonia and Arc'teryx.

Diligence questions

  • Given the age-bracket gap, what would a co-branded HOKA × Cotopaxi pilot show about fit across age groups?
  • With two-way affinity below average in both directions, does a pilot support the headline score?
  • Given thin absolute taste overlap, do the Minneapolis stronghold and the adventure-film affinity hold up in a test activation?
  • Can momentum data be obtained before committing?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 215 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 215 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 214 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 214 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 337 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 360 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 362 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 374 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 450 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 626 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 1412 ms
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 1675 ms
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok9 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok7593 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t5-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9061182854992674,
   "b": 0.8706958647134183,
   "ratio": 0.9609075091489501,
   "value": 0.8880539858723958,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.8859993961837991
    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.8708614783699977
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8632314195173647
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8626911647825115
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9142067566664733,
   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
   "ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.3191929643041903,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:steak_tartare",
     "name": "Steak Tartare",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fish_chips",
     "name": "Fish Chips",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:lesbian",
     "name": "lesbian",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:new_york_city",
     "name": "new york city",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:sandwich",
     "name": "Sandwich",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 77,
   "sharedCount": 23,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
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 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.880536325839484,
   "domains": [
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     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
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       "affinity": 0.8205615228616584
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       "name": "Tedeschi Trucks Band",
       "affinity": 0.8446058523668601
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     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.893384600855061,
     "shared": [
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       "affinity": 0.9599345068345047
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      {
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     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.891802281838493
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      {
       "name": "The Real World",
       "affinity": 0.8960754937504573
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     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9196476909720124,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "Naked and Afraid XL",
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    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
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       "name": "The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley",
       "affinity": 0.867791638176361
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     ],
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     ],
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    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
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       "affinity": 0.7483178274404302
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      {
       "name": "Fitness Confidential",
       "affinity": 0.7698056355783948
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      {
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     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8030092253173506,
     "shared": [
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       "affinity": 0.8418514710647569
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      {
       "name": "Ali on the Run Show",
       "affinity": 0.8349813750774381
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       "name": "Work, Play, Love with Lauren Fleshman and Jesse Thomas",
       "affinity": 0.8349498003301121
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   "coverage": 1
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
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 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
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    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
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   "value": 0.6000883876070412,
   "cosine": 0.20017677521408234,
   "target": {
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    "female": 0.01,
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    "30_to_34": -0.87,
    "35_to_44": 0.31,
    "45_to_54": -0.6000000000000001,
    "55_and_older": -0.6000000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": -0.18
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
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    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.6000000000000001
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   "cosine": 0.31297951360243037
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 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.5753225507062255,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
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     "lon": -116.2023,
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    {
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    {
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    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
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    {
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     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
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   ],
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   "strongholds": [
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    {
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     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.9858054746015935,
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     "targetRel": 0.1299457512782055
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
     "lon": -75.978,
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     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.9175626445142473,
     "buyerRel": 0.0700605585580869,
     "targetRel": 0.0945561945581368
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.4406,
     "lon": -79.9959,
     "buyer": 0.8767029097139056,
     "metro": "Pittsburgh",
     "target": 0.9097027751376697,
     "buyerRel": 0.06551784110354708,
     "targetRel": 0.09851770652731118
    },
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
     "buyer": 0.9263430202196176,
     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.955017676896257,
     "buyerRel": 0.06399564871366115,
     "targetRel": 0.09267030539030063
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 5,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.460515719992653,
   "correlation": -0.07896856001469411
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": false,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Cotopaxi",
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