VC thesis · HOKA → target #7 of 8
Maurten
Premium, science-first sports nutrition provider for serious endurance athletes seeking optimized performance and gastrointestinal tolerance.
Founded 2015 · Competes with Gu Energy Labs, SiS, Hammer Nutrition, Skratch Labs · Partnerships: Major Marathons, IRONMAN, L'Étape Du Tour De France
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Pass
61.0F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured
Why this verdict
F 61.0 < 62.
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.92
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.22
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.86
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.58
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.22
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.25 | 32.7 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.15 | 4.7 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.10 | 12.2 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.10 | 8.3 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 3.1 |
| Momentum | not measured | – |
| F | 61.0 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are On (0.26), HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.23).
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Maurten’s audience embraces them.
Music0.78
Embraced: John Moreland, Jason Isbell, Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit · Least shared: Shakey Graves, The New Basement Tapes, Greyhounds
TV0.88
Embraced: Old Enough!, World's Toughest Race: Eco-Challenge Fiji, Race Across the World · Least shared: The Challenge, Survivor, American Ninja Warrior
Film0.86
Embraced: Torn, The Alpinist, 14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible · Least shared: Becoming Warren Buffett, Iron Cowboy, The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young
Podcasts0.91
Embraced: I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, Ali on the Run Show, C Tolle Run · Least shared: The Tim Ferriss Show, FoundMyFitness, The Proof with Simon Hill
Taste profile overlap
20 of 80 top taste tags shared.
Both over-index on
indierockfolkTourist attractionelectronicParkRestaurantAlternative Rock
Buyer only
Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, friend, Fries
Maurten only
Yakitori, Personal Development, house, Sports complex, Hip Hop
Audience shape
HOKA (buyer) Maurten
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.
Footprint overlap for distribution
White space: Maurten strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space
Miami, Albuquerque, Orlando, Salt Lake City, Denver, New York, Las Vegas, Los Angeles
Shared strongholds
Portland
Bull vs bear
10 of 10 claims survived the judge; 0 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
Maurten carries meaningful aggregate popularity in Qloo's graph, and HOKA's forward affinity toward it is high, which supports it as a credible venture target.
t2-profile.popularity = 0.7296t2-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.9347The m1 affinity metric contributes the largest share of the composite score, which makes core audience fit the main driver of the thesis.
t2-score.points.m1 = 32.69Podcast taste is a clear area of alignment. The shared-podcast domain score is above the shortlist average, and running-focused shows lead the shared audience affinities.
t2-m3.domains[3].score = 0.906t2-m3.domains[3].shared[0].affinity = 0.9662In Maurten's reverse affinity list, HOKA ranks among the top brands its audience over-indexes on, nearly tied with On, which suggests a natural aggregate audience adjacency.
t2-m1.reverse[1].affinity = 0.9237t2-profile.drivers[1].score = 0.2575Two-way audience affinity is the strongest signal: the aggregate HOKA-to-Maurten affinity and the reverse both sit above the shortlist average, and the combined m1 value also beats the shortlist mean.
t2-m1.a = 0.9347t2-m1.b = 0.8969t2-m1.value = 0.9154
Bear: against, or diligence first
Demographic alignment trails the shortlist: the age/gender cosine is about half the average. The biggest gap is the 45-54 bucket, where HOKA's audience over-indexes and Maurten's under-indexes.
t2-m4.cosine = 0.1604t2-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.455t2-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.67Cross-domain agreement is below the shortlist average, and music is the weakest domain against its shortlist benchmark.
t2-m3.value = 0.8559t2-m3.domains[0].score = 0.7779Taste-profile overlap is below the shortlist average. 55% of HOKA's top-20 taste tags are missing from Maurten's profile, versus a shortlist average of roughly 41%.
t2-m2.value = 0.2201t2-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.55Momentum cannot be assessed because coverage is zero, with no trending history available. The composite therefore rests on partial data and sits below the shortlist average.
t2-m6.coverage = 0t2-score.F = 61Geographic footprint is the weakest link: the aggregate metro affinity correlation between the two audiences is negative and far below the shortlist, and the footprint score is under half the shortlist average, with 12 white-space metros. No flag was raised, but the committee should diligence whether the audiences concentrate in different markets.
t2-m5.correlation = -0.5698t2-m5.value = 0.2151t2-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 12
Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 23 of 23 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 23 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 12 of 12 entities | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 8330 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 215 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 215 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 214 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 214 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 337 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 360 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 362 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 374 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 450 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 626 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 1412 ms | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 1675 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 4 of 4 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 0 shared catalogue tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 3083 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t2-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": []
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t2-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.934746883509087,
"b": 0.8968952812618882,
"ratio": 0.9595060407100776,
"value": 0.9154299732976328,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
"name": "On",
"affinity": 0.9238212754039677
},
{
"id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
"name": "HOKA",
"affinity": 0.9237498076239031
},
{
"id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
"name": "Tracksmith",
"affinity": 0.9051335978317925
},
{
"id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
"name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
"affinity": 0.8348764441878895
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.9142067566664733,
"b": 0.8780226767666233,
"ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
"value": 0.8957493307746848
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.22009569377990423,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
"name": "indie",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
"name": "folk",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
"name": "Tourist attraction",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
"name": "electronic",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
"name": "Park",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant",
"name": "Restaurant",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
"name": "Alternative Rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
"name": "Shrimp Tacos",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
"name": "anime animation",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
"name": "british",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
"name": "Fries",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:yakitori",
"name": "Yakitori",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:personal_development",
"name": "Personal Development",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
"name": "house",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:sports_complex",
"name": "Sports complex",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
"name": "Hip Hop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"unionCount": 80,
"sharedCount": 20,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.27871786779809044,
"sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.8558825748923317,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Shakey Graves",
"affinity": 0.7215505466864278
},
{
"name": "The New Basement Tapes",
"affinity": 0.743667145376487
},
{
"name": "Greyhounds",
"affinity": 0.744853555637859
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.7778876911599462,
"shared": [
{
"name": "John Moreland",
"affinity": 0.8288810522674541
},
{
"name": "Jason Isbell",
"affinity": 0.8239192533525174
},
{
"name": "Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit",
"affinity": 0.8236306941610128
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Challenge",
"affinity": 0.8487260165436762
},
{
"name": "Survivor",
"affinity": 0.8520870390620033
},
{
"name": "American Ninja Warrior",
"affinity": 0.8522143507666244
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.8771026859982137,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Old Enough!",
"affinity": 0.9115647691695439
},
{
"name": "World's Toughest Race: Eco-Challenge Fiji",
"affinity": 0.9004986491739153
},
{
"name": "Race Across the World",
"affinity": 0.8960451675144047
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Becoming Warren Buffett",
"affinity": 0.8254251973911724
},
{
"name": "Iron Cowboy",
"affinity": 0.8265309448978657
},
{
"name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
"affinity": 0.8298280609861195
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.8625324630559432,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Torn",
"affinity": 0.9018758774521148
},
{
"name": "The Alpinist",
"affinity": 0.8996645555371413
},
{
"name": "14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible",
"affinity": 0.8980520426372529
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
"affinity": 0.8407360142489958
},
{
"name": "FoundMyFitness",
"affinity": 0.8522307252123111
},
{
"name": "The Proof with Simon Hill",
"affinity": 0.8641197244126921
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.9060074593552234,
"shared": [
{
"name": "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast",
"affinity": 0.9662183811125999
},
{
"name": "Ali on the Run Show",
"affinity": 0.9605978276750456
},
{
"name": "C Tolle Run",
"affinity": 0.9437020755475988
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8787015846441593,
"domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
"domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
"domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
"domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": 0.33,
"female": -0.33,
"25_to_29": -0.34,
"30_to_34": -0.3025,
"35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
"45_to_54": 0.455,
"55_and_older": -0.78,
"24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
},
"value": 0.5801771246019849,
"cosine": 0.16035424920396973,
"target": {
"male": 0.63,
"female": -0.63,
"25_to_29": -0.45,
"30_to_34": 0,
"35_to_44": 0.46,
"45_to_54": -0.67,
"55_and_older": 0.14,
"24_and_younger": 0.66
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": 0.455,
"bucket": "45_to_54",
"target": -0.67
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.6564897568012151,
"cosine": 0.31297951360243037
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.21510769161835974,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 25.7617,
"lon": -80.1918,
"buyer": 0.8162518123316667,
"metro": "Miami",
"target": 0.813039605285917,
"buyerRel": -0.05981641638735746,
"targetRel": -0.06302862343310711
},
{
"lat": 35.0844,
"lon": -106.6504,
"buyer": 0.8768338571349227,
"metro": "Albuquerque",
"target": 0.7739468218092201,
"buyerRel": 0.018581350820651155,
"targetRel": -0.08430568450505138
},
{
"lat": 28.5383,
"lon": -81.3792,
"buyer": 0.8461609455058751,
"metro": "Orlando",
"target": 0.7544241796802401,
"buyerRel": -0.017321327670044018,
"targetRel": -0.10905809349567896
},
{
"lat": 40.7608,
"lon": -111.891,
"buyer": 0.9110029107020463,
"metro": "Salt Lake City",
"target": 0.808132062861362,
"buyerRel": -0.008274856776990136,
"targetRel": -0.11114570461767448
},
{
"lat": 39.7392,
"lon": -104.9903,
"buyer": 0.9593531371483174,
"metro": "Denver",
"target": 0.8235573062488317,
"buyerRel": 0.023291616088475298,
"targetRel": -0.11250421481101036
},
{
"lat": 40.7128,
"lon": -74.006,
"buyer": 0.9382406221219367,
"metro": "New York",
"target": 0.7967821574856301,
"buyerRel": 0.02872735443791985,
"targetRel": -0.11273111019838677
},
{
"lat": 36.1699,
"lon": -115.1398,
"buyer": 0.8408845461485173,
"metro": "Las Vegas",
"target": 0.7562164224492366,
"buyerRel": -0.03452769297597036,
"targetRel": -0.11919581667525103
},
{
"lat": 34.0522,
"lon": -118.2437,
"buyer": 0.893170252135341,
"metro": "Los Angeles",
"target": 0.7856115990687444,
"buyerRel": -0.018147967992925063,
"targetRel": -0.12570662105952157
}
],
"correlation": -0.5697846167632805,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 45.5152,
"lon": -122.6784,
"buyer": 0.9426367608309525,
"metro": "Portland",
"target": 0.7541818812012171,
"buyerRel": 0.04601439043401434,
"targetRel": -0.14244048919572105
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 12,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.460515719992653,
"correlation": -0.07896856001469411
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": null,
"note": "Qloo has no trending history for the 12 weeks to 2026-10-24.",
"value": null,
"priorSd": null,
"coverage": 0,
"priorMean": null,
"normalised": false,
"recentMean": null
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t2-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Maurten",
"data": {
"name": "Maurten",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "On",
"score": 0.2575053338735922
},
{
"name": "HOKA",
"score": 0.25748541299164596
},
{
"name": "Tracksmith",
"score": 0.25229634293490577
},
{
"name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
"score": 0.23271291019985596
}
],
"ownership": "unknown",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States",
"Europe"
],
"popularity": 0.7295604414232679,
"screenRank": 4,
"foundedYear": 2015,
"priceRangeUsd": [
35,
100
],
"ultimateParent": null,
"forwardAffinity": 0.934746883509087,
"competitorBrands": [
"Gu Energy Labs",
"SiS",
"Hammer Nutrition",
"Skratch Labs",
"Precision Hydration"
],
"sharedCategories": [],
"knownPartnerships": [
"Major Marathons",
"IRONMAN",
"L'Étape Du Tour De France",
"PTO"
],
"marketPositioning": "Premium, science-first sports nutrition provider for serious endurance athletes seeking optimized performance and gastrointestinal tolerance."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t2-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 60.9983695003802,
"points": {
"m1": 32.6939276177726,
"m2": 4.7163362952836625,
"m3": 12.226893927033311,
"m4": 8.288244637171212,
"m5": 3.072967023119425,
"m6": 0
},
"coverage": 0.7
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 66.89621770116648,
"coverage": 0.68125
}
}
]