Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #6 of 8

Cotopaxi

A purpose-driven outdoor brand offering high-performance, vibrant gear at a premium price point for environmentally aware adventure enthusiasts.

Founded 2014 · Competes with Patagonia, The North Face, Osprey, Arc'teryx · Partnerships: Cotopaxi Foundation

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
63.7F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 63.7 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.89
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.32
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.88
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.60
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.58
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.54
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2522.2
Taste-profile overlap0.154.8
Cross-domain agreement0.108.8
Demographic alignment0.106.0
Geographic footprint0.105.8
Momentum0.3016.2
F63.7

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Tracksmith (0.25), HOKA (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.25), On (0.25).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Active, Sustainability, Functional, Eco-conscious individuals, Functional, Colorful.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Cotopaxi’s audience embraces them.

Music0.89
Embraced: Houndmouth, Rayland Baxter, Dawes · Least shared: Tom Petty, Mudcrutch, Tedeschi Trucks Band
TV0.92
Embraced: Naked and Afraid, Naked and Afraid XL, Forged in Fire · Least shared: American Gladiators, The Real World, The Challenge
Film0.91
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, Meru · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, Finding Jack Charlton
Podcasts0.80
Embraced: Choose Strong, Ali on the Run Show, Work, Play, Love with Lauren Fleshman and Jesse Thomas · Least shared: Endurance Planet, Fitness Confidential, FoundMyFitness

Taste profile overlap

23 of 77 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
indiefolkfriendfriendshipTourist attractionAlternative RockrockPark
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Fries, Steak Tartare

Cotopaxi only

Fish Chips, lesbian, Food, new york city, Sandwich

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Cotopaxi
-0.87-0.430.00+0.43+0.87≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.23 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Cotopaxi strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Boise, Birmingham, Nashville, Memphis, Oklahoma City

Shared strongholds

New Orleans, Anchorage, Virginia Beach, Pittsburgh, Minneapolis

Bull vs bear

3 of 10 claims survived the judge; 7 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Cross-domain agreement is strong: the aggregate TV score is 0.920, above the shortlist average of 0.917, and the overall cross-domain value is 0.881, near the shortlist average of 0.879.

    t5-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9196t5-m3.value = 0.8805

  • Film and music affinity is well aligned, with the film domain score at 0.906 above its shortlist average of 0.876, and the music domain score at 0.893 above its shortlist average of 0.865.

    t5-m3.domains[2].score = 0.9061t5-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8934

  • Geographic footprint shows five metros where both brands over-index, including Anchorage, Minneapolis and Pittsburgh, with the aggregate footprint value of 0.575 above the shortlist average of 0.461.

    t5-m5.value = 0.5753t5-m5.strongholds[1].target = 0.9858

  • The audience over-indexes on both brands together: two-way audience affinity is 0.888, close to the shortlist average of 0.896, with the buyer-side affinity at 0.871 and the target-side at 0.906.

    t5-m1.value = 0.8881t5-m1.b = 0.8707t5-m1.a = 0.9061

    Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.8881 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8957)

  • Momentum is positive: the recent-period mean of 0.327 sits above the prior mean of 0.322, and the composite score of 63.7 is close to the shortlist average of 64.1, with the momentum score at 16.16 in the composite.

    t5-m6.value = 0.5386t5-score.points.m6 = 16.16

    Rejected by the judge: cites m6 Momentum "value" = 0.5386 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.5615)

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • The composite score of 63.7 sits just below the shortlist average of 64.1, so Cotopaxi is not a standout candidate even before weighing diligence risks.

    t5-score.F = 63.71t5-score.F = 64.06

    Rejected by the judge: cited 64.0564 for Composite score "F", but the ledger says 63.7082

  • Taste-profile overlap is thin: the shared-tag value of 0.319 is above the shortlist average of 0.279, but the buyer's top-20 tags are 35% missing from the target, below the 41% shortlist average on this lower-is-better measure only in part, and the shared-count of 23 sits below the 23.9 shortlist average.

    t5-m2.value = 0.3192t5-m2.sharedCount = 23t5-m2.sharedCount = 23.86

    Rejected by the judge: cites m2 Taste-profile overlap "value" = 0.3192 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.2787)

  • Demographic alignment is weak in the 45-54 bucket: the buyer audience over-indexes at 0.455 while the target audience is at -0.6, and the cosine of 0.200 falls well below the 0.313 shortlist average, a direct taste clash on age.

    DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH
    t5-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.455t5-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.6t5-m4.cosine = 0.2002

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH

  • Geographic overlap is limited: the correlation of 0.151 between buyer and target metro affinities is well above the -0.079 shortlist average, but only five white-space metros exist and the target's own footprint is not a clear fit with buyer strongholds in the same cities.

    NO_GEO_OVERLAP
    t5-m5.correlation = 0.1506t5-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 5

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise NO_GEO_OVERLAP

  • Momentum is flat in the aggregate: the z-score of 0.232 is below the 0.369 shortlist average, so the audience signal is not clearly rising and any thesis built on near-term growth needs independent confirmation.

    FADING
    t5-m6.z = 0.2319t5-m6.value = 0.5386

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise FADING

IC memo

Number check passed: 26 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Cotopaxi: WATCH

Recommendation: Cotopaxi scores F 63.7, which falls in the 62 to 67 WATCH band, and it has no red flags. It ranks 6 of 8 on the shortlist, with a composite just below the shortlist average of F 64.1. The verdict rests on the band rule, not on a strong case for action.

Where the audiences meet

  • Cross-domain agreement is the strongest signal. The aggregate TV score is 0.920, above the shortlist average of 0.917, and the overall cross-domain value is 0.881, near the shortlist average of 0.879.
  • Film and music affinity is well aligned. The film domain score is 0.906, above its shortlist average of 0.876, and the music domain score is 0.893, above its shortlist average of 0.865. Audience affinity over-indexes on outdoor and endurance titles such as Free Solo and The Dawn Wall.
  • Geographic footprint shows five metros where both brands over-index: Anchorage, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Virginia Beach. The aggregate footprint value is 0.575, above the shortlist average of 0.461.

Risks

  • Demographic alignment is weaker than the shortlist. The value is 0.600 against a shortlist average of 0.656. The largest gap is in the 45 to 54 bucket, where the buyer skews to 0.455 and Cotopaxi's audience sits at -0.60.
  • Momentum is below the shortlist average (z 0.23 against 0.37), so recent movement in aggregate audience affinity does not add to the case.
  • Ownership is unknown, and the entity profile lists no ultimate parent.

Diligence questions

  • What is the ownership structure, and who controls the brand?
  • Does the 45 to 54 audience gap hold across other data windows, or is it a snapshot effect?
  • Is the Cotopaxi Foundation partnership active, and does it relate to the sustainability affinity in the profile?
  • What drives the softer momentum reading, and does it reverse in the next window?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 330 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 333 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 635 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 640 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 639 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 642 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 928 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 932 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 1657 ms
/v2/trendingok50 trend point(s)live 1805 ms
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok9 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok7593 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t5-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9061182854992674,
   "b": 0.8706958647134183,
   "ratio": 0.9609075091489501,
   "value": 0.8880539858723958,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.8859993961837991
    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.8708614783699977
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8632314195173647
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8626911647825115
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9142067566664733,
   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
   "ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.3191929643041903,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:steak_tartare",
     "name": "Steak Tartare",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fish_chips",
     "name": "Fish Chips",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:lesbian",
     "name": "lesbian",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:new_york_city",
     "name": "new york city",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:sandwich",
     "name": "Sandwich",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 77,
   "sharedCount": 23,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.27871786779809044,
   "sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.880536325839484,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8122157807027888
      },
      {
       "name": "Mudcrutch",
       "affinity": 0.8205615228616584
      },
      {
       "name": "Tedeschi Trucks Band",
       "affinity": 0.8446058523668601
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.893384600855061,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Houndmouth",
       "affinity": 0.9599345068345047
      },
      {
       "name": "Rayland Baxter",
       "affinity": 0.943717927663213
      },
      {
       "name": "Dawes",
       "affinity": 0.9368711231056008
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.891802281838493
      },
      {
       "name": "The Real World",
       "affinity": 0.8960754937504573
      },
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.8986798824187759
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9196476909720124,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Naked and Afraid",
       "affinity": 0.9575374073621805
      },
      {
       "name": "Naked and Afraid XL",
       "affinity": 0.9516374096302967
      },
      {
       "name": "Forged in Fire",
       "affinity": 0.9488567984702412
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Dark Waters",
       "affinity": 0.8556769988783808
      },
      {
       "name": "The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley",
       "affinity": 0.867791638176361
      },
      {
       "name": "Finding Jack Charlton",
       "affinity": 0.8722039446760745
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.9061037862135123,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Dawn Wall",
       "affinity": 0.968577907307127
      },
      {
       "name": "Free Solo",
       "affinity": 0.9638327625930353
      },
      {
       "name": "Meru",
       "affinity": 0.9565104899962491
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Endurance Planet",
       "affinity": 0.7483178274404302
      },
      {
       "name": "Fitness Confidential",
       "affinity": 0.7698056355783948
      },
      {
       "name": "FoundMyFitness",
       "affinity": 0.7745311760115281
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8030092253173506,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Choose Strong",
       "affinity": 0.8418514710647569
      },
      {
       "name": "Ali on the Run Show",
       "affinity": 0.8349813750774381
      },
      {
       "name": "Work, Play, Love with Lauren Fleshman and Jesse Thomas",
       "affinity": 0.8349498003301121
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8787015846441593,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.33,
    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.6000883876070412,
   "cosine": 0.20017677521408234,
   "target": {
    "male": -0.01,
    "female": 0.01,
    "25_to_29": 0.53,
    "30_to_34": -0.87,
    "35_to_44": 0.31,
    "45_to_54": -0.6000000000000001,
    "55_and_older": -0.6000000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": -0.18
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.455,
    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.6000000000000001
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6564897568012151,
   "cosine": 0.31297951360243037
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.5753225507062255,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.7650557482100473,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.9767033024966002,
     "buyerRel": -0.04423854067931943,
     "targetRel": 0.16740901360723348
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.5186,
     "lon": -86.8104,
     "buyer": 0.7473393960773093,
     "metro": "Birmingham",
     "target": 0.8558774570510677,
     "buyerRel": 0.004344656738440311,
     "targetRel": 0.11288271771219871
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.8297116121273177,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.9096628119798743,
     "buyerRel": 0.03096654841851887,
     "targetRel": 0.11091774827107548
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
     "lon": -90.049,
     "buyer": 0.7524965372047269,
     "metro": "Memphis",
     "target": 0.8486419556931138,
     "buyerRel": 0.0024804208248982995,
     "targetRel": 0.09862583931328528
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.7735162122542768,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.8807818617714416,
     "buyerRel": -0.014814723137858476,
     "targetRel": 0.0924509263793063
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.15064510141245097,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
     "lon": -90.0715,
     "buyer": 0.793145078759221,
     "metro": "New Orleans",
     "target": 0.8758054824464027,
     "buyerRel": 0.04572248364468401,
     "targetRel": 0.12838288733186565
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.8988125680292488,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.9858054746015935,
     "buyerRel": 0.042952844705860804,
     "targetRel": 0.1299457512782055
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
     "lon": -75.978,
     "buyer": 0.8930670085141974,
     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.9175626445142473,
     "buyerRel": 0.0700605585580869,
     "targetRel": 0.0945561945581368
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.4406,
     "lon": -79.9959,
     "buyer": 0.8767029097139056,
     "metro": "Pittsburgh",
     "target": 0.9097027751376697,
     "buyerRel": 0.06551784110354708,
     "targetRel": 0.09851770652731118
    },
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
     "buyer": 0.9263430202196176,
     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.955017676896257,
     "buyerRel": 0.06399564871366115,
     "targetRel": 0.09267030539030063
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 5,
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