VC thesis · HOKA → target #8 of 8
Maurten
Premium, science-first sports nutrition provider for serious endurance athletes seeking optimized performance and gastrointestinal tolerance.
Founded 2015 · Competes with Gu Energy Labs, SiS, Hammer Nutrition, Skratch Labs · Partnerships: Major Marathons, IRONMAN, L'Étape Du Tour De France
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Pass
58.3F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured
Why this verdict
F 58.3 < 62.
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.92
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.22
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.86
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.58
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.22
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.52
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.25 | 22.9 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.15 | 3.3 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.10 | 8.6 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.10 | 5.8 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 2.2 |
| Momentum | 0.30 | 15.6 |
| F | 58.3 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are On (0.26), HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.23).
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Maurten’s audience embraces them.
Music0.78
Embraced: John Moreland, Jason Isbell, Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit · Least shared: Shakey Graves, The New Basement Tapes, Greyhounds
TV0.88
Embraced: Old Enough!, World's Toughest Race: Eco-Challenge Fiji, Race Across the World · Least shared: The Challenge, Survivor, American Ninja Warrior
Film0.86
Embraced: Torn, The Alpinist, 14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible · Least shared: Becoming Warren Buffett, Iron Cowboy, The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young
Podcasts0.91
Embraced: I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, Ali on the Run Show, C Tolle Run · Least shared: The Tim Ferriss Show, FoundMyFitness, The Proof with Simon Hill
Taste profile overlap
20 of 80 top taste tags shared.
Both over-index on
indierockfolkTourist attractionelectronicParkRestaurantAlternative Rock
Buyer only
Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, friend, Fries
Maurten only
Yakitori, Personal Development, house, Sports complex, Hip Hop
Audience shape
HOKA (buyer) Maurten
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = 0.12 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
White space: Maurten strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space
Miami, Albuquerque, Orlando, Salt Lake City, Denver, New York, Las Vegas, Los Angeles
Shared strongholds
Portland
Bull vs bear
2 of 7 claims survived the judge; 5 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
Across the two-way audience affinity measure, the buyer-target pair scores above the shortlist average, with the audience over-indexing on both brands together (aggregate affinity 0.9154 vs. a 0.8957 shortlist average).
t2-m1.value = 0.9154t2-m1.a = 0.9347Podcast-domain agreement is a clear strength: aggregate audience affinity across podcasts runs above the shortlist average, which supports a content-led co-marketing angle.
t2-m3.domains[3].score = 0.906
Bear: against, or diligence first
The composite score of 58.29 sits below the shortlist average of 64.06, so this pairing ranks weaker than the typical shortlisted candidate on the aggregate measure.
t2-score.F = 58.29t2-score.shortlistAverages.F = 64.06Rejected by the judge: "shortlistAverages.F" does not resolve to a number in t2-score
Taste-profile overlap is thin: only 20 shared tags out of 80 in the union, and the value of 0.22 is below the shortlist average of 0.28. The buyer's top-20 audience tags are missing from the target 55% of the time, versus 41% on average across the shortlist.
t2-m2.value = 0.2201t2-m2.shortlistAverages.value = 0.2787t2-m2.sharedCount = 20t2-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.55Rejected by the judge: "shortlistAverages.value" does not resolve to a number in t2-m2
Demographic alignment is weak in the aggregate: the buyer's audience over-indexes on 45-to-54 (0.455) while the target's audience under-indexes there (-0.67), and the cosine of 0.16 is well below the shortlist average of 0.31.
t2-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.455t2-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.67t2-m4.cosine = 0.1604t2-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.313Rejected by the judge: "shortlistAverages.cosine" does not resolve to a number in t2-m4
Geographic overlap runs against the deal: the buyer-target footprint correlation is -0.57 against a shortlist average of -0.08, with 12 white-space metros where the buyer is strong and the target is weak, and the target's relative affinity trails the buyer's in the largest markets.
NO_GEO_OVERLAPt2-m5.correlation = -0.5698t2-m5.shortlistAverages.correlation = -0.07897t2-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 12t2-m5.value = 0.2151Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise NO_GEO_OVERLAP
Cross-domain agreement is below the shortlist on music, where the clash list is led by artists such as Shakey Graves, and the overall momentum signal of 0.52 is also below the shortlist average of 0.56. Audience affinity on the buyer side is aggregate and may not carry to a brand deal.
t2-m3.domains[0].score = 0.7779t2-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8646t2-m6.value = 0.5198t2-m6.shortlistAverages.value = 0.5615Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8646 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[0].score", but the ledger says 0.7779
Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 23 of 23 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 23 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 12 of 12 entities | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 8330 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 330 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 332 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 332 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 333 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 635 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 640 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 639 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 642 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 928 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 932 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 1657 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 50 trend point(s) | live 1805 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 4 of 4 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 0 shared catalogue tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 3083 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t2-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": []
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t2-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.934746883509087,
"b": 0.8968952812618882,
"ratio": 0.9595060407100776,
"value": 0.9154299732976328,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
"name": "On",
"affinity": 0.9238212754039677
},
{
"id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
"name": "HOKA",
"affinity": 0.9237498076239031
},
{
"id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
"name": "Tracksmith",
"affinity": 0.9051335978317925
},
{
"id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
"name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
"affinity": 0.8348764441878895
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.9142067566664733,
"b": 0.8780226767666233,
"ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
"value": 0.8957493307746848
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.22009569377990423,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
"name": "indie",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
"name": "folk",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
"name": "Tourist attraction",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
"name": "electronic",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
"name": "Park",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant",
"name": "Restaurant",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
"name": "Alternative Rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
"name": "Shrimp Tacos",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
"name": "anime animation",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
"name": "british",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
"name": "Fries",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:yakitori",
"name": "Yakitori",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:personal_development",
"name": "Personal Development",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
"name": "house",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:sports_complex",
"name": "Sports complex",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
"name": "Hip Hop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"unionCount": 80,
"sharedCount": 20,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.27871786779809044,
"sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.8558825748923317,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Shakey Graves",
"affinity": 0.7215505466864278
},
{
"name": "The New Basement Tapes",
"affinity": 0.743667145376487
},
{
"name": "Greyhounds",
"affinity": 0.744853555637859
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.7778876911599462,
"shared": [
{
"name": "John Moreland",
"affinity": 0.8288810522674541
},
{
"name": "Jason Isbell",
"affinity": 0.8239192533525174
},
{
"name": "Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit",
"affinity": 0.8236306941610128
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Challenge",
"affinity": 0.8487260165436762
},
{
"name": "Survivor",
"affinity": 0.8520870390620033
},
{
"name": "American Ninja Warrior",
"affinity": 0.8522143507666244
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.8771026859982137,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Old Enough!",
"affinity": 0.9115647691695439
},
{
"name": "World's Toughest Race: Eco-Challenge Fiji",
"affinity": 0.9004986491739153
},
{
"name": "Race Across the World",
"affinity": 0.8960451675144047
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Becoming Warren Buffett",
"affinity": 0.8254251973911724
},
{
"name": "Iron Cowboy",
"affinity": 0.8265309448978657
},
{
"name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
"affinity": 0.8298280609861195
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.8625324630559432,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Torn",
"affinity": 0.9018758774521148
},
{
"name": "The Alpinist",
"affinity": 0.8996645555371413
},
{
"name": "14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible",
"affinity": 0.8980520426372529
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
"affinity": 0.8407360142489958
},
{
"name": "FoundMyFitness",
"affinity": 0.8522307252123111
},
{
"name": "The Proof with Simon Hill",
"affinity": 0.8641197244126921
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.9060074593552234,
"shared": [
{
"name": "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast",
"affinity": 0.9662183811125999
},
{
"name": "Ali on the Run Show",
"affinity": 0.9605978276750456
},
{
"name": "C Tolle Run",
"affinity": 0.9437020755475988
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8787015846441593,
"domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
"domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
"domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
"domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": 0.33,
"female": -0.33,
"25_to_29": -0.34,
"30_to_34": -0.3025,
"35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
"45_to_54": 0.455,
"55_and_older": -0.78,
"24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
},
"value": 0.5801771246019849,
"cosine": 0.16035424920396973,
"target": {
"male": 0.63,
"female": -0.63,
"25_to_29": -0.45,
"30_to_34": 0,
"35_to_44": 0.46,
"45_to_54": -0.67,
"55_and_older": 0.14,
"24_and_younger": 0.66
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": 0.455,
"bucket": "45_to_54",
"target": -0.67
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.6564897568012151,
"cosine": 0.31297951360243037
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.21510769161835974,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 25.7617,
"lon": -80.1918,
"buyer": 0.8162518123316667,
"metro": "Miami",
"target": 0.813039605285917,
"buyerRel": -0.05981641638735746,
"targetRel": -0.06302862343310711
},
{
"lat": 35.0844,
"lon": -106.6504,
"buyer": 0.8768338571349227,
"metro": "Albuquerque",
"target": 0.7739468218092201,
"buyerRel": 0.018581350820651155,
"targetRel": -0.08430568450505138
},
{
"lat": 28.5383,
"lon": -81.3792,
"buyer": 0.8461609455058751,
"metro": "Orlando",
"target": 0.7544241796802401,
"buyerRel": -0.017321327670044018,
"targetRel": -0.10905809349567896
},
{
"lat": 40.7608,
"lon": -111.891,
"buyer": 0.9110029107020463,
"metro": "Salt Lake City",
"target": 0.808132062861362,
"buyerRel": -0.008274856776990136,
"targetRel": -0.11114570461767448
},
{
"lat": 39.7392,
"lon": -104.9903,
"buyer": 0.9593531371483174,
"metro": "Denver",
"target": 0.8235573062488317,
"buyerRel": 0.023291616088475298,
"targetRel": -0.11250421481101036
},
{
"lat": 40.7128,
"lon": -74.006,
"buyer": 0.9382406221219367,
"metro": "New York",
"target": 0.7967821574856301,
"buyerRel": 0.02872735443791985,
"targetRel": -0.11273111019838677
},
{
"lat": 36.1699,
"lon": -115.1398,
"buyer": 0.8408845461485173,
"metro": "Las Vegas",
"target": 0.7562164224492366,
"buyerRel": -0.03452769297597036,
"targetRel": -0.11919581667525103
},
{
"lat": 34.0522,
"lon": -118.2437,
"buyer": 0.893170252135341,
"metro": "Los Angeles",
"target": 0.7856115990687444,
"buyerRel": -0.018147967992925063,
"targetRel": -0.12570662105952157
}
],
"correlation": -0.5697846167632805,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 45.5152,
"lon": -122.6784,
"buyer": 0.9426367608309525,
"metro": "Portland",
"target": 0.7541818812012171,
"buyerRel": 0.04601439043401434,
"targetRel": -0.14244048919572105
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 12,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.460515719992653,
"correlation": -0.07896856001469411
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": 0.11893911032258009,
"value": 0.5198231850537633,
"priorSd": 0.0016913557535310404,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": -0.02300471407001292,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": -0.02062593186356132
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.3690696956512553,
"value": 0.5615116159418759
}
},
{
"id": "t2-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Maurten",
"data": {
"name": "Maurten",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "On",
"score": 0.2575053338735922
},
{
"name": "HOKA",
"score": 0.25748541299164596
},
{
"name": "Tracksmith",
"score": 0.25229634293490577
},
{
"name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
"score": 0.23271291019985596
}
],
"ownership": "unknown",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States",
"Europe"
],
"popularity": 0.7295604414232679,
"screenRank": 4,
"foundedYear": 2015,
"priceRangeUsd": [
35,
100
],
"ultimateParent": null,
"forwardAffinity": 0.934746883509087,
"competitorBrands": [
"Gu Energy Labs",
"SiS",
"Hammer Nutrition",
"Skratch Labs",
"Precision Hydration"
],
"sharedCategories": [],
"knownPartnerships": [
"Major Marathons",
"IRONMAN",
"L'Étape Du Tour De France",
"PTO"
],
"marketPositioning": "Premium, science-first sports nutrition provider for serious endurance athletes seeking optimized performance and gastrointestinal tolerance."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t2-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 58.29355420187904,
"points": {
"m1": 22.88574933244082,
"m2": 3.3014354066985634,
"m3": 8.558825748923317,
"m4": 5.8017712460198485,
"m5": 2.151076916183597,
"m6": 15.5946955516129
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 64.05637653955682
}
}
]