Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #5 of 8

Athletic Greens

Premium daily foundational supplement for high-performing individuals seeking comprehensive nutritional optimization.

Founded 2010 · Competes with Garden of Life, Organifi, Amazing Grass, Vital Proteins · Partnerships: The Huberman Lab Podcast, Tim Ferriss

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
64.1F / 100
85% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 64.1 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.88
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap not measured
n/a
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
Qloo returned no taste profile for this target.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.86
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.48
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.48
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.47
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2525.9
Taste-profile overlapnot measured–
Cross-domain agreement0.1010.1
Demographic alignment0.105.7
Geographic footprint0.105.7
Momentum0.3016.7
F64.1

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Athletic Brewing Co (0.26), HOKA (0.25), On (0.25), Tracksmith (0.24).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Athletic Greens’s audience embraces them.

Music0.88
Embraced: The Wood Brothers, Jamestown Revival, Trampled by Turtles · Least shared: Tom Petty, Alabama Shakes, Mudcrutch
TV0.90
Embraced: Old Enough!, Blown Away, Lego Masters · Least shared: American Ninja Warrior, The Challenge, Survivor
Film0.82
Embraced: Becoming Warren Buffett, The Redeemed and the Dominant: Fittest on Earth, The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Peanut Butter Falcon, The Wall: Climb for Gold
Podcasts0.83
Embraced: The Model Health Show, Boundless Life, The Genius Life · Least shared: the morning shakeout podcast, On Coaching with Magness & Marcus, The Running for Real Podcast

Taste profile overlap

Qloo returned no taste profile for this target.

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Athletic Greens
-0.78-0.390.00+0.39+0.78≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.16 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Athletic Greens strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Nashville, Atlanta, Tampa, Dallas, Jacksonville, Houston, Miami, Honolulu

Shared strongholds

Minneapolis, Cleveland, New Orleans

Bull vs bear

2 of 10 claims survived the judge; 8 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The target's entity profile shows a high popularity score and a forward affinity toward the buyer that matches the reverse-direction affinity, supporting a mutual audience read rather than a one-directional one.

    t7-profile.popularity = 0.8735t7-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.8982t7-m1.ratio = 0.9611

  • Geographic coverage is complete, and the buyer's strongholds such as Minneapolis and Cleveland show a buyer-side affinity well above the cohort, which gives a regional entry point to test the thesis, even though the target's footprint is weaker in those metros.

    t7-m5.strongholds[0].buyerRel = 0.064t7-m5.coverage = 1t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 9

  • The composite score sits right at the shortlist average, and the two-way audience affinity between the buyer and target is the strongest single signal, with the target's audience over-indexing on HOKA at a level close to the shortlist mean.

    t7-score.F = 64.11t7-m1.value = 0.8804t7-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8957

    Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.8804 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8957)

  • Cross-domain agreement is strong in TV and Podcasts, where the shared audience affinities run high; the TV domain score is above the shortlist average, so the aggregate audience overlaps beyond the sneaker category.

    t7-m3.domains[1].score = 0.904t7-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[1].score = 0.9175t7-m3.domains[3].score = 0.8327

    Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[1].score" = 0.904 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.9175)

  • Momentum is a real strength: the aggregate audience affinity trend is rising in a way that clears the shortlist average on the momentum value, indicating the shared audience is gaining rather than fading.

    t7-m6.value = 0.4738t7-m6.z = -0.1575t7-m6.shortlistAverages.z = 0.3691

    Rejected by the judge: cites m6 Momentum "value" = 0.4738 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.5615)

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Taste-profile overlap could not be measured: Qloo returned no taste profile for Athletic Greens, so the composite carries zero points on this measure and coverage is only 0.85.

    NO_GEO_OVERLAP
    t7-m2.coverage = 0

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise NO_GEO_OVERLAP

  • Demographic alignment is weak. The buyer's audience skews male while the target's skews female, and the biggest gap is in the male bucket. Cosine similarity of 0.034 with a negative sign is far below the shortlist average of 0.313.

    DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH
    t7-m4.cosine = -0.03418t7-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.33t7-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.35

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH

  • Geographic overlap is thin. The correlation between buyer and target metro affinities is negative at -0.032, and the code found nine white-space metros where the buyer is strong and the target is not. The target's relative affinity is negative in each of those metros.

    NO_GEO_OVERLAP
    t7-m5.correlation = -0.03178t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 9

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise NO_GEO_OVERLAP

  • Momentum is negative. The recent audience mean sits below the prior mean, and the z-score of -0.157 trails the shortlist average of 0.369. The audience-side signal is therefore fading rather than building.

    FADING
    t7-m6.z = -0.1575t7-m6.value = 0.4738

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise FADING

  • Cross-domain agreement is mostly driven by the buyer-side audience, and the target's music and film affinities sit below the shortlist averages. The composite of 64.1 is only marginally above the shortlist average of 64.06, so the score does not separate this pairing from the field. Ownership is unknown, so diligence is needed before any VC thesis.

    AUDIENCE_ONE_SIDED
    t7-m3.value = 0.86t7-score.F = 64.11t7-score.coverage = 0.85

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise AUDIENCE_ONE_SIDED

IC memo

Number check passed: 7 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Athletic Greens: WATCH

Recommendation. Athletic Greens scores F 64.1 on the composite, inside the 62 to 67 WATCH band, with no code-rule red flags, so the verdict is WATCH. It ranks 5 of 8 in the screen. The case rests on audience overlap with HOKA, but the demographic and geographic reads are weak, and taste-profile data is missing.

Where the audiences meet.

  • Two-way audience affinity is strong. The target's forward affinity toward HOKA is 0.90 and the reverse direction is 0.88, so the audience read is mutual rather than one-directional. Coverage is complete.
  • Among the reverse-direction affinities, HOKA sits alongside Athletic Brewing Co, On, and Tracksmith.
  • Shared audience signals appear across TV (Survivor, American Ninja Warrior) and podcasts (The Model Health Show, Boundless Life). These are aggregate audience affinities, not predictions about individuals.
  • Geographic coverage is complete. The buyer's strongholds, Minneapolis and Cleveland, show buyer-side affinity well above the cohort. The target's footprint there is weaker, so this is a regional entry point to test, not a proven market.

Risks.

  • Qloo returned no taste profile for the target, so taste-profile overlap is unscored.
  • Demographic alignment is weak. The buyer's largest gap is on male affinity, where the target runs the opposite way.
  • Geographic correlation with the buyer is slightly negative, and the target is below the buyer in Miami.
  • Momentum is below the shortlist average, with a negative z-score.
  • Ownership is unknown, and no ultimate parent is recorded.

Diligence questions.

  • Can a taste profile be obtained through a second data pull or a direct brand survey?
  • Does the male-skewed gap reflect the product's positioning, or a channel mix issue?
  • What explains the weaker target footprint in Minneapolis and Cleveland, and is it a distribution gap?
  • Who owns the company, and is any partnership or acquisition process underway?
  • Do the known partnerships (The Huberman Lab Podcast, Tim Ferriss) carry the podcast affinity into the run-club audience?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)live 330 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 333 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 635 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 640 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 639 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 642 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 928 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 932 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 1657 ms
/v2/trendingok50 trend point(s)live 1805 ms
/v2/insightsempty0 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok7371 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t7-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8982361285123511,
   "b": 0.8632729688696241,
   "ratio": 0.9610757588868836,
   "value": 0.8804075670790221,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8863613862346169
    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.8764956113364486
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8537300655884246
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.8365048123190062
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9142067566664733,
   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
   "ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "note": "Qloo returned no taste profile for this target.",
   "value": null,
   "coverage": 0
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8599965204734277,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8488482117370856
      },
      {
       "name": "Alabama Shakes",
       "affinity": 0.8506349560002034
      },
      {
       "name": "Mudcrutch",
       "affinity": 0.8553363153539078
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8804270186759549,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Wood Brothers",
       "affinity": 0.909897422592137
      },
      {
       "name": "Jamestown Revival",
       "affinity": 0.9057625900529763
      },
      {
       "name": "Trampled by Turtles",
       "affinity": 0.9052412195962112
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "American Ninja Warrior",
       "affinity": 0.8744550959957328
      },
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.8777711552557496
      },
      {
       "name": "Survivor",
       "affinity": 0.8871631230915604
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9040233418570222,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.940268059029767
      },
      {
       "name": "Blown Away",
       "affinity": 0.9355077591170992
      },
      {
       "name": "Lego Masters",
       "affinity": 0.9219444971235536
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Dark Waters",
       "affinity": 0.7674894551720982
      },
      {
       "name": "The Peanut Butter Falcon",
       "affinity": 0.7718580060136639
      },
      {
       "name": "The Wall: Climb for Gold",
       "affinity": 0.7759954860550797
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8228065778751297,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Becoming Warren Buffett",
       "affinity": 0.865796288476378
      },
      {
       "name": "The Redeemed and the Dominant: Fittest on Earth",
       "affinity": 0.8654144782719025
      },
      {
       "name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
       "affinity": 0.8653275733170244
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "the morning shakeout podcast",
       "affinity": 0.7496059118035445
      },
      {
       "name": "On Coaching with Magness & Marcus",
       "affinity": 0.7737914041495457
      },
      {
       "name": "The Running for Real Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.777592495931702
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8327291434856042,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Model Health Show",
       "affinity": 0.98319220532029
      },
      {
       "name": "Boundless Life",
       "affinity": 0.925497029173615
      },
      {
       "name": "The Genius Life",
       "affinity": 0.9221997570451985
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8787015846441593,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.33,
    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.48290993696588097,
   "cosine": -0.034180126068238094,
   "target": {
    "male": -0.3500000000000001,
    "female": 0.3500000000000001,
    "25_to_29": -0.14159999999999998,
    "30_to_34": -0.1622,
    "35_to_44": 0.05619999999999999,
    "45_to_54": -0.17919999999999997,
    "55_and_older": -0.23579999999999998,
    "24_and_younger": -0.020199999999999996
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.33,
    "bucket": "male",
    "target": -0.3500000000000001
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6564897568012151,
   "cosine": 0.31297951360243037
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.48410867016943,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.8297116121273177,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.7942942428498605,
     "buyerRel": 0.03096654841851887,
     "targetRel": -0.004450820858938331
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.749,
     "lon": -84.388,
     "buyer": 0.846706920331274,
     "metro": "Atlanta",
     "target": 0.8146252823018939,
     "buyerRel": 0.023238829136423278,
     "targetRel": -0.008842808892956855
    },
    {
     "lat": 27.9506,
     "lon": -82.4572,
     "buyer": 0.888733553468572,
     "metro": "Tampa",
     "target": 0.8561951792613746,
     "buyerRel": 0.022321562659591065,
     "targetRel": -0.010216811547606341
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.7767,
     "lon": -96.797,
     "buyer": 0.8725458751846871,
     "metro": "Dallas",
     "target": 0.843115428828436,
     "buyerRel": 0.018452499506307785,
     "targetRel": -0.010977946849943243
    },
    {
     "lat": 30.3322,
     "lon": -81.6557,
     "buyer": 0.8500371301561284,
     "metro": "Jacksonville",
     "target": 0.8156988970205504,
     "buyerRel": 0.021321232330591355,
     "targetRel": -0.013017000804986578
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.7604,
     "lon": -95.3698,
     "buyer": 0.8757422357900101,
     "metro": "Houston",
     "target": 0.8328312002927848,
     "buyerRel": 0.027186541932007535,
     "targetRel": -0.015724493565217768
    },
    {
     "lat": 25.7617,
     "lon": -80.1918,
     "buyer": 0.8162518123316667,
     "metro": "Miami",
     "target": 0.859622988971391,
     "buyerRel": -0.05981641638735746,
     "targetRel": -0.016445239747633122
    },
    {
     "lat": 21.3069,
     "lon": -157.8583,
     "buyer": 0.9291044691055944,
     "metro": "Honolulu",
     "target": 0.8980235720843037,
     "buyerRel": 0.005809280782782311,
     "targetRel": -0.025271616238508376
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.03178265966114004,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
     "buyer": 0.9263430202196176,
     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.8497747870085333,
     "buyerRel": 0.06399564871366115,
     "targetRel": -0.012572584497423156
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.4993,
     "lon": -81.6944,
     "buyer": 0.9095332748721432,
     "metro": "Cleveland",
     "target": 0.838301847400781,
     "buyerRel": 0.06042060565596985,
     "targetRel": -0.01081082181539239
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
     "lon": -90.0715,
     "buyer": 0.793145078759221,
     "metro": "New Orleans",
     "target": 0.7335664899156369,
     "buyerRel": 0.04572248364468401,
     "targetRel": -0.013856105198900126
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 9,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.460515719992653,
   "correlation": -0.07896856001469411
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.15746181543684346,
   "value": 0.4737563640938594,
   "priorSd": 0.002913299139789182,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.11167748186335658,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.11482671817209344
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.3690696956512553,
   "value": 0.5615116159418759
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Athletic Greens",
  "data": {
   "name": "Athletic Greens",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.2566863026521104
    },
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.253829218261096
    },
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.2472364177886587
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.24224806129813484
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Canada",
    "United Kingdom",
    "Australia"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.8735061280534319,
   "screenRank": 11,
   "foundedYear": 2010,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    79,
    99
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8982361285123511,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Garden of Life",
    "Organifi",
    "Amazing Grass",
    "Vital Proteins",
    "Ritual"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "The Huberman Lab Podcast",
    "Tim Ferriss"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium daily foundational supplement for high-performing individuals seeking comprehensive nutritional optimization."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 64.10944867750439,
   "points": {
    "m1": 25.89434020820654,
    "m2": 0,
    "m3": 10.117606123216797,
    "m4": 5.681293376069188,
    "m5": 5.695396119640353,
    "m6": 16.72081285037151
   },
   "coverage": 0.8499999999999999
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.05637653955682
  }
 }
]