VC thesis · HOKA → target #7 of 8
Hyperice
Premium recovery technology brand focused on high-performance athletic maintenance and professional-grade physical therapy tools.
Founded 2010 · Competes with Therabody, Compex, TriggerPoint, PowerDot · Partnerships: NBA, NFL, MLB
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Why this verdict
F 59.1 < 62.
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.25 | 22.0 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.15 | 2.4 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.10 | 8.6 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.10 | 9.5 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 2.2 |
| Momentum | 0.30 | 14.3 |
| F | 59.1 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are On (0.25), Tracksmith (0.25), HOKA (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.25).
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Hyperice’s audience embraces them.
Taste profile overlap
19 of 81 top taste tags shared.
Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, friend, Fries
Calamari, Sports complex, Hip Hop, rap, Personal Development
Audience shape
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = -0.15 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
Miami, Dallas, Los Angeles, Houston, Tampa, Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas
none
Bull vs bear
1 of 10 claims survived the judge; 9 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
Two-way audience affinity is high: the audience affinity from HOKA toward Hyperice is 0.8996 and the reverse is 0.8646, with a combined value of 0.8817, the aggregate overlap sits close to the shortlist average of 0.8957.
t6-m1.value = 0.8817t6-m1.a = 0.8996t6-m1.b = 0.8646Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.8817 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8957)
Demographic alignment is the strongest signal: the cosine similarity of buyer and target audience profiles is 0.8983, well above the shortlist average of 0.313, and the alignment value is 0.9492 against a shortlist average of 0.6565.
t6-m4.cosine = 0.8983t6-m4.value = 0.9492t6-m4.value = 0.6565Rejected by the judge: cited 0.6565 for m4 Demographic alignment "value", but the ledger says 0.9492
Cross-domain agreement is strong in TV and Film: the TV domain score is 0.9372 against a shortlist average of 0.9175, and the Film domain score is 0.8593, while the overall cross-domain value is 0.8618 versus a shortlist average of 0.8787, showing the aggregate audience shares tastes beyond sport.
t6-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9372t6-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8593t6-m3.value = 0.8618Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[2].score" = 0.8593 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8763)
Momentum is steady rather than declining sharply: the normalised momentum value is 0.4753, close to the shortlist average of 0.5615, and the z-score of -0.1482 reflects a modest recent dip, which the code did not flag as fading.
FADINGt6-m6.value = 0.4753t6-m6.z = -0.1482t6-m6.value = 0.5615Rejected by the judge: nothing to mitigate: the code rules did not raise FADING
The brand-level taste overlap offers a distinct shared-interest base: 19 shared taste tags across a union of 81 in the aggregate audience, and the Qloo profile shows HOKA among Hyperice's top affinity drivers at 0.2486.
t6-m2.sharedCount = 19t6-profile.drivers[2].score = 0.2486Rejected by the judge: cites m2 Taste-profile overlap "sharedCount" = 19 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (23.8571)
Bear: against, or diligence first
Cross-domain agreement is weakest in music, where the aggregate audience affinity score is 0.82 against a shortlist average of 0.86. The overlap in that domain is less reliable as a basis for a shared-audience story.
t6-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8161The composite score of 59.07 sits below the shortlist average of 64.06, so on the committee's own scoring this pairing ranks weaker than a typical shortlisted candidate.
t6-score.data.F = 59.07Rejected by the judge: "data.F" does not resolve to a number in t6-score
Across 8 metros, the buyer's audience affinity runs opposite to the target's: the correlation is -0.55 against a shortlist average of -0.08, and the code counts 14 white-space metros where the target is stronger than the buyer.
t6-m5.data.correlation = -0.5525t6-m5.data.whiteSpaceCount = 14Rejected by the judge: "data.correlation" does not resolve to a number in t6-m5
Taste-profile overlap is thin: the value of 0.16 is well below the shortlist average of 0.28, and 55% of the buyer's top-20 taste tags are missing from the target, against a shortlist average of 41%. This is an aggregate affinity gap, not a verdict on either brand.
t6-m2.data.value = 0.1612t6-m2.data.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.55Rejected by the judge: "data.value" does not resolve to a number in t6-m2
Recent audience momentum is slightly negative: the z-score is -0.15 against a shortlist average of 0.37, with the recent mean (0.487) marginally below the prior mean (0.490). The movement is small, but it does not support a growth-led thesis.
t6-m6.data.z = -0.1482Rejected by the judge: "data.z" does not resolve to a number in t6-m6
Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 23 of 23 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 23 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 12 of 12 entities | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 8330 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | live 330 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 332 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 332 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 333 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 635 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 640 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 639 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 642 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 928 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 932 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 1657 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 50 trend point(s) | live 1805 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 4 of 4 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 0 shared catalogue tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 4787 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t6-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": []
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t6-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.8995609095411924,
"b": 0.8646092465448053,
"ratio": 0.9611458628029828,
"value": 0.8817388476235581,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
"name": "On",
"affinity": 0.8774515881739351
},
{
"id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
"name": "Tracksmith",
"affinity": 0.8667025719751522
},
{
"id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
"name": "HOKA",
"affinity": 0.8596701065765117
},
{
"id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
"name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
"affinity": 0.8546127194536224
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.9142067566664733,
"b": 0.8780226767666233,
"ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
"value": 0.8957493307746848
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.16120218579234974,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
"name": "Tourist attraction",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
"name": "electronic",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
"name": "country",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
"name": "friendship",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:self_help",
"name": "Self Help",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
"name": "indie",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:21st_century",
"name": "21st century",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
"name": "Shrimp Tacos",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
"name": "anime animation",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
"name": "british",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
"name": "Fries",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:calamari",
"name": "Calamari",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:sports_complex",
"name": "Sports complex",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
"name": "Hip Hop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
"name": "rap",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:personal_development",
"name": "Personal Development",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
}
],
"unionCount": 81,
"sharedCount": 19,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.27871786779809044,
"sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.8618190455721151,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Mudcrutch",
"affinity": 0.7797609618523952
},
{
"name": "Phil Cook",
"affinity": 0.7912023373267739
},
{
"name": "Sturgill Simpson",
"affinity": 0.7977529922350474
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.8160544099887217,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Greensky Bluegrass",
"affinity": 0.8401145055684164
},
{
"name": "Shakey Graves",
"affinity": 0.8396182703245643
},
{
"name": "Greyhounds",
"affinity": 0.8371900366178892
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Old Enough!",
"affinity": 0.9184872745086254
},
{
"name": "Making It",
"affinity": 0.9215306106767707
},
{
"name": "Better Late Than Never",
"affinity": 0.9242793788905498
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.937222594553051,
"shared": [
{
"name": "American Ninja Warrior",
"affinity": 0.9691888618278444
},
{
"name": "BattleBots",
"affinity": 0.9495963977143705
},
{
"name": "American Gladiators",
"affinity": 0.949456837663879
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "This Mountain Life",
"affinity": 0.8211177552786432
},
{
"name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
"affinity": 0.8316688131718665
},
{
"name": "Becoming Warren Buffett",
"affinity": 0.8363058371275609
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.8593447991960784,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Free Solo",
"affinity": 0.9092660886765589
},
{
"name": "The Peanut Butter Falcon",
"affinity": 0.9081712161316869
},
{
"name": "Dark Waters",
"affinity": 0.8905881255661845
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Work, Play, Love with Lauren Fleshman and Jesse Thomas",
"affinity": 0.7751138745822396
},
{
"name": "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast",
"affinity": 0.7796269982300155
},
{
"name": "Ali on the Run Show",
"affinity": 0.7841964263772947
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.8346543785506093,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Boundless Life",
"affinity": 0.9308551895086202
},
{
"name": "The Model Health Show",
"affinity": 0.9051821978925285
},
{
"name": "FoundMyFitness",
"affinity": 0.8987031793240373
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8787015846441593,
"domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
"domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
"domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
"domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": 0.33,
"female": -0.33,
"25_to_29": -0.34,
"30_to_34": -0.3025,
"35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
"45_to_54": 0.455,
"55_and_older": -0.78,
"24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
},
"value": 0.9491696063141616,
"cosine": 0.8983392126283232,
"target": {
"male": 0.37,
"female": -0.37,
"25_to_29": -0.28,
"30_to_34": -0.5700000000000001,
"35_to_44": 0.51,
"45_to_54": 0.2,
"55_and_older": -0.7000000000000001,
"24_and_younger": -0.04
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": 0.15500000000000003,
"bucket": "35_to_44",
"target": 0.51
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.6564897568012151,
"cosine": 0.31297951360243037
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.22373412209222326,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 25.7617,
"lon": -80.1918,
"buyer": 0.8162518123316667,
"metro": "Miami",
"target": 0.9418278843498277,
"buyerRel": -0.05981641638735746,
"targetRel": 0.06575965563080355
},
{
"lat": 32.7767,
"lon": -96.797,
"buyer": 0.8725458751846871,
"metro": "Dallas",
"target": 0.9092438158205433,
"buyerRel": 0.018452499506307785,
"targetRel": 0.05515044014216397
},
{
"lat": 34.0522,
"lon": -118.2437,
"buyer": 0.893170252135341,
"metro": "Los Angeles",
"target": 0.9590317161116034,
"buyerRel": -0.018147967992925063,
"targetRel": 0.047713495983337406
},
{
"lat": 29.7604,
"lon": -95.3698,
"buyer": 0.8757422357900101,
"metro": "Houston",
"target": 0.8952084217616247,
"buyerRel": 0.027186541932007535,
"targetRel": 0.04665272790362218
},
{
"lat": 27.9506,
"lon": -82.4572,
"buyer": 0.888733553468572,
"metro": "Tampa",
"target": 0.9097348450638213,
"buyerRel": 0.022321562659591065,
"targetRel": 0.04332285425484039
},
{
"lat": 33.4484,
"lon": -112.074,
"buyer": 0.908067641943434,
"metro": "Phoenix",
"target": 0.9432474159362935,
"buyerRel": 0.0055488722493396425,
"targetRel": 0.040728646242199074
},
{
"lat": 33.749,
"lon": -84.388,
"buyer": 0.846706920331274,
"metro": "Atlanta",
"target": 0.8638835244998775,
"buyerRel": 0.023238829136423278,
"targetRel": 0.04041543330502673
},
{
"lat": 36.1699,
"lon": -115.1398,
"buyer": 0.8408845461485173,
"metro": "Las Vegas",
"target": 0.9155383072779151,
"buyerRel": -0.03452769297597036,
"targetRel": 0.04012606815342745
}
],
"correlation": -0.5525317558155535,
"strongholds": [],
"whiteSpaceCount": 14,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.460515719992653,
"correlation": -0.07896856001469411
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": -0.14823772105952981,
"value": 0.475293713156745,
"priorSd": 0.002185547413217884,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": 0.4900738106873983,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": 0.4871090562662077
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.3690696956512553,
"value": 0.5615116159418759
}
},
{
"id": "t6-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Hyperice",
"data": {
"name": "Hyperice",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "On",
"score": 0.25371333688612835
},
{
"name": "Tracksmith",
"score": 0.25060528077819905
},
{
"name": "HOKA",
"score": 0.24857185775307408
},
{
"name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
"score": 0.24710952458259858
}
],
"ownership": "unknown",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States",
"Canada",
"Europe",
"Australia"
],
"popularity": 0.867522164397959,
"screenRank": 10,
"foundedYear": 2010,
"priceRangeUsd": [
100,
1200
],
"ultimateParent": null,
"forwardAffinity": 0.8995609095411924,
"competitorBrands": [
"Therabody",
"Compex",
"TriggerPoint",
"PowerDot",
"Rapid Reboot"
],
"sharedCategories": [],
"knownPartnerships": [
"NBA",
"NFL",
"MLB",
"PGA Tour"
],
"marketPositioning": "Premium recovery technology brand focused on high-performance athletic maintenance and professional-grade physical therapy tools."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t6-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 59.06754311196155,
"points": {
"m1": 22.043471190588953,
"m2": 2.418032786885246,
"m3": 8.618190455721152,
"m4": 9.491696063141616,
"m5": 2.2373412209222328,
"m6": 14.25881139470235
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 64.05637653955682
}
}
]