Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #6 of 8

Cotopaxi

A purpose-driven outdoor brand offering high-performance, vibrant gear at a premium price point for environmentally aware adventure enthusiasts.

Founded 2014 · Competes with Patagonia, The North Face, Osprey, Arc'teryx · Partnerships: Cotopaxi Foundation

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
63.7F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 63.7 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.89
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.32
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.88
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.60
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.58
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.54
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2522.2
Taste-profile overlap0.154.8
Cross-domain agreement0.108.8
Demographic alignment0.106.0
Geographic footprint0.105.8
Momentum0.3016.2
F63.7

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Tracksmith (0.25), HOKA (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.25), On (0.25).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Active, Sustainability, Functional, Eco-conscious individuals, Functional, Colorful.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Cotopaxi’s audience embraces them.

Music0.89
Embraced: Houndmouth, Rayland Baxter, Dawes · Least shared: Tom Petty, Mudcrutch, Tedeschi Trucks Band
TV0.92
Embraced: Naked and Afraid, Naked and Afraid XL, Forged in Fire · Least shared: American Gladiators, The Real World, The Challenge
Film0.91
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, Meru · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, Finding Jack Charlton
Podcasts0.80
Embraced: Choose Strong, Ali on the Run Show, Work, Play, Love with Lauren Fleshman and Jesse Thomas · Least shared: Endurance Planet, Fitness Confidential, FoundMyFitness

Taste profile overlap

23 of 77 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
indiefolkfriendfriendshipTourist attractionAlternative RockrockPark
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Fries, Steak Tartare

Cotopaxi only

Fish Chips, lesbian, Food, new york city, Sandwich

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Cotopaxi
-0.87-0.430.00+0.43+0.87≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.23 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Cotopaxi strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Boise, Birmingham, Nashville, Memphis, Oklahoma City

Shared strongholds

New Orleans, Anchorage, Virginia Beach, Pittsburgh, Minneapolis

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Aggregate audience affinity is reciprocal: the two-way ratio of 0.961 sits at the shortlist average of 0.960, so the HOKA and Cotopaxi audiences over-index on each other about as much as peers do.

    t5-m1.ratio = 0.9609t5-m1.shortlistAverages.ratio = 0.9604

  • Cross-domain agreement is a strength: the overall score of 0.881 beats the shortlist average of 0.879, and the TV domain reaches 0.920 against a shortlist average of 0.917, so shared audience taste holds across media types.

    t5-m3.value = 0.8805t5-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9196t5-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[1].score = 0.9175

  • The geographic footprint is a strength: aggregate affinity across 55 metros reaches 0.575 against a shortlist average of 0.461, and the code found 5 white-space metros where Cotopaxi's audience is stronger than HOKA's.

    t5-m5.value = 0.5753t5-m5.shortlistAverages.value = 0.4605t5-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 5

  • Taste-profile overlap is a strength: the shared-taste value of 0.319 beats the shortlist average of 0.279, and only 0.35 of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target, below the shortlist average of 0.414.

    t5-m2.value = 0.3192t5-m2.shortlistAverages.value = 0.2787t5-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35

  • Cotopaxi's aggregate audience popularity is high at 0.882, and its forward affinity to HOKA is 0.906, indicating that the target's audience is strongly tied to the buyer's brand.

    t5-profile.popularity = 0.8822t5-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.9061

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Two-way audience affinity is weaker than the shortlist on both sides: the aggregate audience affinity for Cotopaxi is below its shortlist average, and HOKA's affinity for Cotopaxi's audience is also below average, so mutual pull is not stronger than peers.

    t5-m1.value = 0.8881t5-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8957

  • Demographic alignment is weak: the buyer's audience skews toward the 45 to 54 bucket, where Cotopaxi's audience sits at a sharply negative value, a biggest gap that a brand deal would need to address.

    t5-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.455t5-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.6t5-m4.cosine = 0.2002

  • Momentum is below the shortlist on both the z-score and the level, so the aggregate audience signal is not clearly rising and any thesis built on growth needs independent evidence.

    t5-m6.z = 0.2319t5-m6.value = 0.5386

  • The composite score sits slightly below the shortlist average, so on the code's own weighting this pairing does not outperform its peers and does not justify a premium.

    t5-score.F = 63.71t5-score.F = 64.06

    Rejected by the judge: cited 64.0564 for Composite score "F", but the ledger says 63.7082

  • Shared taste overlap has few common tags relative to the union, and the buyer's top-tag missing share is high, so the audiences share limited common ground at the tag level; diligence should confirm the overlap holds beyond aggregate affinities before any joint positioning.

    t5-m2.sharedCount = 23t5-m2.unionCount = 77t5-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35

    Rejected by the judge: cites m2 Taste-profile overlap "buyerTop20MissingShare" = 0.35 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.4143)

IC memo

Number check passed: 33 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Cotopaxi: WATCH

Recommendation. Cotopaxi scores F 63.7 and ranks 6 of 8 on the shortlist. It falls in the 62 to 67 WATCH band with no red flags, so the verdict is WATCH rather than advance. The shortlist average is F 64.1, so the target sits just below peers. Treat it as a candidate to monitor, not a deal to pursue now.

Where the audiences meet. The strongest validated evidence is geographic and cross-domain. Aggregate affinity across 55 metros is 0.58 against a shortlist average of 0.46, and the audience over-indexes on five white-space metros where Cotopaxi is stronger than HOKA. Cross-domain agreement is 0.88, slightly above the shortlist average of 0.88, and the TV domain reaches 0.92 against 0.92. Taste overlap is also a strength: the shared-taste value is 0.32 against 0.28, and 0.35 of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target, versus 0.41 for peers. Two-way affinity is reciprocal in ratio terms (0.96, in line with peers).

Risks.

  • Two-way pull is weaker than peers on both sides: Cotopaxi's affinity for HOKA's audience is 0.91 against 0.91, and HOKA's affinity for Cotopaxi's audience is 0.87 against 0.88.
  • Demographic alignment is weak. The buyer's audience skews toward 45 to 54, where Cotopaxi's aggregate value is -0.60 against the buyer's 0.46, the largest gap in the screen.
  • Momentum is below the shortlist on z-score (0.23 against 0.37) and level (0.54 against 0.56). The aggregate signal is not clearly rising.
  • Red flags: none.

Diligence questions

  • Two-way affinity is weaker than peers on both sides. What would a co-branded pilot between HOKA and Cotopaxi show?
  • The 45 to 54 demographic gap is the largest in the screen. How would a brand deal address it, and what would a pilot measure in that bucket?
  • Momentum is below the shortlist. What independent evidence supports any growth thesis?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok50 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok9 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok7593 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t5-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
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   "b": 0.8706958647134183,
   "ratio": 0.9609075091489501,
   "value": 0.8880539858723958,
   "reverse": [
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    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
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    },
    {
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     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
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    },
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    }
   ],
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   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
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   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
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   "shared": [
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     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
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    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
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    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
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    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
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    },
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     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
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     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:steak_tartare",
     "name": "Steak Tartare",
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    }
   ],
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    },
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     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
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    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:new_york_city",
     "name": "new york city",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:sandwich",
     "name": "Sandwich",
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    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 77,
   "sharedCount": 23,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
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 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m3",
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       "name": "Tedeschi Trucks Band",
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     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.893384600855061,
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     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "Naked and Afraid XL",
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     ],
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    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
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 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
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    "female": -0.33,
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    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
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 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
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   "whiteSpace": [
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    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
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     "target": 0.9858054746015935,
     "buyerRel": 0.042952844705860804,
     "targetRel": 0.1299457512782055
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
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     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.9175626445142473,
     "buyerRel": 0.0700605585580869,
     "targetRel": 0.0945561945581368
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.4406,
     "lon": -79.9959,
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     "metro": "Pittsburgh",
     "target": 0.9097027751376697,
     "buyerRel": 0.06551784110354708,
     "targetRel": 0.09851770652731118
    },
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
     "buyer": 0.9263430202196176,
     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.955017676896257,
     "buyerRel": 0.06399564871366115,
     "targetRel": 0.09267030539030063
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 5,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.460515719992653,
   "correlation": -0.07896856001469411
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t5-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.23189541715685769,
   "value": 0.5386492361928096,
   "priorSd": 0.00308707058224643,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0.32225076697542465,
   "normalised": true,
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