Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #1 of 8

Janji

Premium performance running brand focused on travel-inspired design and social impact.

Founded 2012 · Competes with Tracksmith, Patagonia, Satisfy Running, Salomon

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
68.5F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 68.5 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.93
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.31
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.90
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.41
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.68
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.69
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2523.2
Taste-profile overlap0.154.6
Cross-domain agreement0.109.0
Demographic alignment0.104.1
Geographic footprint0.106.8
Momentum0.3020.8
F68.5

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.26), On (0.24), Athletic Brewing Co (0.24).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Fashion, Fashion, Athletic, Diversity and Inclusivity, Innovative, Active.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Janji’s audience embraces them.

Music0.92
Embraced: Houndmouth, Rayland Baxter, Shakey Graves · Least shared: Tom Petty, Mudcrutch, Tedeschi Trucks Band
TV0.90
Embraced: Old Enough!, Better Late Than Never, Alone Australia · Least shared: The Challenge, American Ninja Warrior, American Gladiators
Film0.90
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, Meru · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley, Iron Cowboy
Podcasts0.88
Embraced: I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, Ali on the Run Show, C Tolle Run · Least shared: The Tim Ferriss Show, FoundMyFitness, The Model Health Show

Taste profile overlap

25 of 75 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
indiefolkfriendshipTourist attractionAlternative RockParkrockindie rock
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Fries, Restaurant

Janji only

Hamburger, Cookbooks, Cooking, State park, Elote

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Janji
-0.84-0.420.00+0.42+0.84≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 1.16 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Janji strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Albuquerque, Denver

Shared strongholds

Providence, Hartford, Anchorage, Milwaukee, Virginia Beach, Baltimore, Portland

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Janji's audience affinity for HOKA is 0.926 on the two-way measure, and HOKA itself ranks among the top reverse affinities at 0.946, consistent with a shared audience base.

    t1-m1.reverse[0].affinity = 0.9455

  • Cross-domain agreement is strong: the composite cross-domain score is 0.900 against a shortlist average of 0.879, with the music and podcast domains both reading as strengths.

    t1-m3.value = 0.9004t1-m3.domains[0].score = 0.9199t1-m3.domains[3].score = 0.8848

  • The geographic footprint is a strength with 2 white-space metros, including Albuquerque and Denver, where the buyer's relative affinity is higher than the target's and the audience overlap is an opening to grow together.

    t1-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 2t1-m5.correlation = 0.3559

  • The audience over-indexes on the HOKA-to-Janji direction: aggregate audience affinity for Janji sits at 0.926 against a shortlist average of 0.896, a strength on the two-way affinity measure.

    t1-m1.value = 0.9262t1-m1.value = 0.8957

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8957 for m1 Two-way audience affinity "value", but the ledger says 0.9262

  • Janji's momentum is a clear strength: the z-score of 1.160 sits well above the shortlist average of 0.369, indicating aggregate audience affinity has recently risen.

    t1-m6.z = 1.16t1-m6.z = 0.3691

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.3691 for m6 Momentum "z", but the ledger says 1.1604

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • The audience's age profile diverges from Janji's: the demographic alignment cosine is negative, well below the shortlist average. Aggregate affinities suggest the two brands' audiences are not aligned by age bucket.

    t1-m4.cosine = -0.1866t1-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.313

  • The largest demographic gap sits in the 45 to 54 bucket, where HOKA's aggregate audience skews strongly positive while Janji's is strongly negative. That is a concrete age-segment mismatch the diligence must test before any co-branded plan.

    t1-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.455t1-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.84

  • Janji's TV-domain agreement is weaker than the shortlist average, so the shared audience is less consistent across that content category. This narrows the cross-domain story to music, film and podcasts.

    t1-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8961t1-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[1].score = 0.9175

  • The two-way overlap ratio sits just below the shortlist average, so the headline affinity strength is driven by the level of each side rather than by a tighter match. The gap is small but it is the weaker reading on this measure.

    t1-m1.ratio = 0.9592t1-m1.shortlistAverages.ratio = 0.9604

  • Only two metros show a buyer-led gap where Janji's affinity is weaker, out of 55 measured, so the geographic upside to test is narrow.

    t1-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 2t1-m5.metroCount = 55

IC memo

Number check passed: 9 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5 (after one repair pass)

Janji: ADVANCE

Recommendation. Advance Janji to the next diligence stage. It clears the verdict rule (F 68.5 at or above 67, with no red flags). The affinity case is validated, but the age-segment gap must be tested before any co-branded plan.

Where the audiences meet. The two-way audience affinity is 0.926, and HOKA ranks among the top reverse affinities at 0.946, consistent with a shared aggregate audience base. Cross-domain agreement is 0.900 against a shortlist average of 0.879, with music and podcasts both reading as strengths. Music shared affinities are led by Houndmouth and Shakey Graves; podcasts by "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast" and "Ali on the Run Show." Albuquerque and Denver are the two white-space metros, where the buyer's relative affinity exceeds the target's.

Risks.

  • Age alignment is weak. The demographic cosine is negative and well below the shortlist average. The largest gap is in the middle-age bucket, where HOKA's aggregate audience skews positive (0.455) and Janji's is strongly negative (-0.84).
  • TV agreement trails the shortlist average, so the shared audience is less consistent in that category.
  • Overlap ratio is slightly weaker than the shortlist average. Headline strength comes from each side's level rather than a tighter match.
  • Narrow geographic upside. Only two of the 55 measured metros show a buyer-led gap where Janji's affinity is weaker.

Diligence questions

  • Does the aggregate age gap in the middle-age bucket narrow the audience for any joint campaign?
  • Does the music and podcast overlap hold up in a joint activation, and what would it measure?
  • Is the narrow geographic upside enough to justify a metro-by-metro rollout, starting with Albuquerque and Denver?
  • Do the TV and overlap-ratio gaps change the scope of any joint content plan?
  • What partnership history exists? The Qloo profile lists no known partnerships.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok50 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok4447 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/analysis/compareok29 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t1-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9458634349034952,
   "b": 0.9072443115822273,
   "ratio": 0.9591705082402217,
   "value": 0.9261514582486624,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.9455486037758355
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.9406974548318762
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8801333054096298
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8625978823115681
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9142067566664733,
   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
   "ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.30970724191063165,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie_rock",
     "name": "indie rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
     "name": "Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant",
     "name": "Restaurant",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:hamburger",
     "name": "Hamburger",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:cookbooks",
     "name": "Cookbooks",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:cooking",
     "name": "Cooking",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:state_park",
     "name": "State park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:elote",
     "name": "Elote",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 75,
   "sharedCount": 25,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.900352349846212,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8481714915094821
      },
      {
       "name": "Mudcrutch",
       "affinity": 0.8554754574742436
      },
      {
       "name": "Tedeschi Trucks Band",
       "affinity": 0.86687052878394
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.9199316866800266,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Houndmouth",
       "affinity": 0.9669271906071738
      },
      {
       "name": "Rayland Baxter",
       "affinity": 0.9564814929850032
      },
      {
       "name": "Shakey Graves",
       "affinity": 0.952090691966438
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.8714363053002814
      },
      {
       "name": "American Ninja Warrior",
       "affinity": 0.873837934319269
      },
      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.8764455034607452
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.8960614568157714,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.9211886720608355
      },
      {
       "name": "Better Late Than Never",
       "affinity": 0.9186149149101476
      },
      {
       "name": "Alone Australia",
       "affinity": 0.917508526788608
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Dark Waters",
       "affinity": 0.8666841340385278
      },
      {
       "name": "The Inventor: Out for Blood in Silicon Valley",
       "affinity": 0.8735649084770638
      },
      {
       "name": "Iron Cowboy",
       "affinity": 0.8741377915018245
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.9005857414628157,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Dawn Wall",
       "affinity": 0.9498808777260328
      },
      {
       "name": "Free Solo",
       "affinity": 0.9496393212667485
      },
      {
       "name": "Meru",
       "affinity": 0.9260559137449972
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
       "affinity": 0.770013376015571
      },
      {
       "name": "FoundMyFitness",
       "affinity": 0.7846161302494684
      },
      {
       "name": "The Model Health Show",
       "affinity": 0.815069855305299
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8848305144262346,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9835319164333378
      },
      {
       "name": "Ali on the Run Show",
       "affinity": 0.9778390200430225
      },
      {
       "name": "C Tolle Run",
       "affinity": 0.9508198609990045
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8787015846441593,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.33,
    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.40667795585700417,
   "cosine": -0.18664408828599172,
   "target": {
    "male": -0.02,
    "female": 0.02,
    "25_to_29": -0.45,
    "30_to_34": 0,
    "35_to_44": 0.78,
    "45_to_54": -0.84,
    "55_and_older": 0.17,
    "24_and_younger": -0.18
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.455,
    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.84
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6564897568012151,
   "cosine": 0.31297951360243037
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.6779285147021398,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.8768338571349227,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.8915852439315559,
     "buyerRel": 0.018581350820651155,
     "targetRel": 0.03333273761728439
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.7392,
     "lon": -104.9903,
     "buyer": 0.9593531371483174,
     "metro": "Denver",
     "target": 0.94524984581957,
     "buyerRel": 0.023291616088475298,
     "targetRel": 0.009188324759727862
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.3558570294042795,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 41.824,
     "lon": -71.4128,
     "buyer": 0.963626004059159,
     "metro": "Providence",
     "target": 0.9391085938151496,
     "buyerRel": 0.07285401646247103,
     "targetRel": 0.048336606218461586
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.7658,
     "lon": -72.6734,
     "buyer": 0.9618839070016612,
     "metro": "Hartford",
     "target": 0.8837254940248843,
     "buyerRel": 0.09116169807766727,
     "targetRel": 0.013003285100890438
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.8988125680292488,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.8975297117232542,
     "buyerRel": 0.042952844705860804,
     "targetRel": 0.04166998839986624
    },
    {
     "lat": 43.0389,
     "lon": -87.9065,
     "buyer": 0.9307328833748337,
     "metro": "Milwaukee",
     "target": 0.8827563189610494,
     "buyerRel": 0.06045229007822128,
     "targetRel": 0.012475725664436998
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
     "lon": -75.978,
     "buyer": 0.8930670085141974,
     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.8250829266434277,
     "buyerRel": 0.0700605585580869,
     "targetRel": 0.0020764766873172524
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.2904,
     "lon": -76.6122,
     "buyer": 0.9297448853864333,
     "metro": "Baltimore",
     "target": 0.8604738552813654,
     "buyerRel": 0.06916254301313696,
     "targetRel": -0.00010848709193089778
    },
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.9426367608309525,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.899778787678768,
     "buyerRel": 0.04601439043401434,
     "targetRel": 0.003156417281829804
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 2,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.460515719992653,
   "correlation": -0.07896856001469411
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 1.1603531249914756,
   "value": 0.6933921874985792,
   "priorSd": 0.014678459585028628,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0.7372163905460731,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0.7604234530459026
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.3690696956512553,
   "value": 0.5615116159418759
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Janji",
  "data": {
   "name": "Janji",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.26055512051842067
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.25921833921209897
    },
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.24252929838564757
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.23769724188383273
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.6415724432540557,
   "screenRank": 2,
   "foundedYear": 2012,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    50,
    120
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   "forwardAffinity": 0.9458634349034952,
   "competitorBrands": [
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    "Salomon",
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   ],
   "sharedCategories": [
    {
     "name": "Fashion",
     "score": 0.7307481702311143
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    {
     "name": "Fashion",
     "score": 0.7292849950590256
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    {
     "name": "Athletic",
     "score": 0.7289855573312215
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    {
     "name": "Diversity and Inclusivity",
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    {
     "name": "Innovative",
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    {
     "name": "Active",
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   ],
   "knownPartnerships": [],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium performance running brand focused on travel-inspired design and social impact."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 68.45074891388697,
   "points": {
    "m1": 23.15378645621656,
    "m2": 4.645608628659475,
    "m3": 9.00352349846212,
    "m4": 4.066779558570042,
    "m5": 6.7792851470213975,
    "m6": 20.801765624957376
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.05637653955682
  }
 }
]