VC thesis · HOKA → target #8 of 8
Maurten
Premium, science-first sports nutrition provider for serious endurance athletes seeking optimized performance and gastrointestinal tolerance.
Founded 2015 · Competes with Gu Energy Labs, SiS, Hammer Nutrition, Skratch Labs · Partnerships: Major Marathons, IRONMAN, L'Étape Du Tour De France
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Why this verdict
F 58.3 < 62.
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.25 | 22.9 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.15 | 3.3 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.10 | 8.6 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.10 | 5.8 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 2.2 |
| Momentum | 0.30 | 15.6 |
| F | 58.3 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are On (0.26), HOKA (0.26), Tracksmith (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.23).
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Maurten’s audience embraces them.
Taste profile overlap
20 of 80 top taste tags shared.
Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, friend, Fries
Yakitori, Personal Development, house, Sports complex, Hip Hop
Audience shape
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = 0.12 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
Miami, Albuquerque, Orlando, Salt Lake City, Denver, New York, Las Vegas, Los Angeles
Portland
Bull vs bear
9 of 10 claims survived the judge; 1 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
The two brands share a strong two-way audience affinity: the value sits above the shortlist average, and both directions are strengths, with HOKA's own affinity to Maurten's audience at 0.9237 in the reverse list.
t2-m1.value = 0.9154t2-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8957t2-m1.reverse[1].affinity = 0.9237Cross-domain agreement is strongest in podcasts, where the audience over-indexes on endurance-oriented shows and the domain score is a strength against the shortlist average.
t2-m3.domains[3].score = 0.906t2-m3.domains[3].shared[0].affinity = 0.9662The shared-audience footprint in film and TV is high: the film domain score and the TV domain score both carry strong aggregate affinity for adventure and endurance titles, supporting a cross-media campaign concept.
t2-m3.domains[2].shared[0].affinity = 0.9019t2-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.9116Maurten's Qloo profile shows real momentum and reach: a popularity of 0.7296 and a screen rank of 4, with the HOKA driver score close to the top driver, indicating the two brands sit near each other in the taste graph; the momentum is flagged as an average-to-weak reading, so the case rests on reach rather than acceleration.
t2-profile.popularity = 0.7296t2-profile.drivers[1].score = 0.2575The overlap in the shared-audience footprint is material: the 20 shared taste tags, including running-adjacent genres such as rock, indie and folk, give a common cultural base to build creative around even though the overall overlap is below the shortlist average.
t2-m2.sharedCount = 20t2-m2.unionCount = 80Rejected by the judge: cites m2 Taste-profile overlap "sharedCount" = 20 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (23.8571)
Bear: against, or diligence first
The composite score sits below the shortlist average, with the audience-overlap and demographic signals driving most of the gap; the bear case is that this is a weaker-than-peer fit rather than a disqualifying one.
t2-score.F = 58.29t2-score.shortlistAverages.F = 64.06Taste-profile overlap is thin: only 20 shared tags out of an 80-tag union, and the buyer's top-20 audience has a 55% missing share, both weaker than the shortlist, so the shared-interest story rests on a narrow base.
t2-m2.sharedCount = 20t2-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.55t2-m2.shortlistAverages.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.4143Demographic alignment is weak: the audience overlap on age and gender reads as a mismatch in the 45-54 bucket, where the buyer audience sits at 0.455 against -0.67 for the target, and the cosine similarity is below the shortlist average.
t2-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.455t2-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.67t2-m4.cosine = 0.1604Geographic footprint is a bear concern: the buyer and target audiences move in opposite directions across 55 metros (correlation -0.57), with 12 buyer white-space metros where the target is weaker, so a joint campaign could underserve the buyer's strongest areas.
t2-m5.correlation = -0.5698t2-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 12Momentum is flat in aggregate, with the recent mean barely moved from the prior period and a z-score well below the shortlist average, so there is no clear trend to ride; the diligence should confirm whether this is a stable audience or a stalled one.
t2-m6.z = 0.1189t2-m6.shortlistAverages.z = 0.3691
Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 23 of 23 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 23 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 12 of 12 entities | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 8330 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | empty | 0 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 50 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 4 of 4 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | cache | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 0 shared catalogue tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 3083 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t2-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": []
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t2-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.934746883509087,
"b": 0.8968952812618882,
"ratio": 0.9595060407100776,
"value": 0.9154299732976328,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
"name": "On",
"affinity": 0.9238212754039677
},
{
"id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
"name": "HOKA",
"affinity": 0.9237498076239031
},
{
"id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
"name": "Tracksmith",
"affinity": 0.9051335978317925
},
{
"id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
"name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
"affinity": 0.8348764441878895
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.9142067566664733,
"b": 0.8780226767666233,
"ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
"value": 0.8957493307746848
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.22009569377990423,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
"name": "indie",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
"name": "folk",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
"name": "Tourist attraction",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
"name": "electronic",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
"name": "Park",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant",
"name": "Restaurant",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
"name": "Alternative Rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
"name": "Shrimp Tacos",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
"name": "anime animation",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
"name": "british",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:fries",
"name": "Fries",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:yakitori",
"name": "Yakitori",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:personal_development",
"name": "Personal Development",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
"name": "house",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:sports_complex",
"name": "Sports complex",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
"name": "Hip Hop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"unionCount": 80,
"sharedCount": 20,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.27871786779809044,
"sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.8558825748923317,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Shakey Graves",
"affinity": 0.7215505466864278
},
{
"name": "The New Basement Tapes",
"affinity": 0.743667145376487
},
{
"name": "Greyhounds",
"affinity": 0.744853555637859
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.7778876911599462,
"shared": [
{
"name": "John Moreland",
"affinity": 0.8288810522674541
},
{
"name": "Jason Isbell",
"affinity": 0.8239192533525174
},
{
"name": "Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit",
"affinity": 0.8236306941610128
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Challenge",
"affinity": 0.8487260165436762
},
{
"name": "Survivor",
"affinity": 0.8520870390620033
},
{
"name": "American Ninja Warrior",
"affinity": 0.8522143507666244
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.8771026859982137,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Old Enough!",
"affinity": 0.9115647691695439
},
{
"name": "World's Toughest Race: Eco-Challenge Fiji",
"affinity": 0.9004986491739153
},
{
"name": "Race Across the World",
"affinity": 0.8960451675144047
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Becoming Warren Buffett",
"affinity": 0.8254251973911724
},
{
"name": "Iron Cowboy",
"affinity": 0.8265309448978657
},
{
"name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
"affinity": 0.8298280609861195
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.8625324630559432,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Torn",
"affinity": 0.9018758774521148
},
{
"name": "The Alpinist",
"affinity": 0.8996645555371413
},
{
"name": "14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible",
"affinity": 0.8980520426372529
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
"affinity": 0.8407360142489958
},
{
"name": "FoundMyFitness",
"affinity": 0.8522307252123111
},
{
"name": "The Proof with Simon Hill",
"affinity": 0.8641197244126921
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.9060074593552234,
"shared": [
{
"name": "I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast",
"affinity": 0.9662183811125999
},
{
"name": "Ali on the Run Show",
"affinity": 0.9605978276750456
},
{
"name": "C Tolle Run",
"affinity": 0.9437020755475988
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8787015846441593,
"domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
"domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
"domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
"domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": 0.33,
"female": -0.33,
"25_to_29": -0.34,
"30_to_34": -0.3025,
"35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
"45_to_54": 0.455,
"55_and_older": -0.78,
"24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
},
"value": 0.5801771246019849,
"cosine": 0.16035424920396973,
"target": {
"male": 0.63,
"female": -0.63,
"25_to_29": -0.45,
"30_to_34": 0,
"35_to_44": 0.46,
"45_to_54": -0.67,
"55_and_older": 0.14,
"24_and_younger": 0.66
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": 0.455,
"bucket": "45_to_54",
"target": -0.67
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.6564897568012151,
"cosine": 0.31297951360243037
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.21510769161835974,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 25.7617,
"lon": -80.1918,
"buyer": 0.8162518123316667,
"metro": "Miami",
"target": 0.813039605285917,
"buyerRel": -0.05981641638735746,
"targetRel": -0.06302862343310711
},
{
"lat": 35.0844,
"lon": -106.6504,
"buyer": 0.8768338571349227,
"metro": "Albuquerque",
"target": 0.7739468218092201,
"buyerRel": 0.018581350820651155,
"targetRel": -0.08430568450505138
},
{
"lat": 28.5383,
"lon": -81.3792,
"buyer": 0.8461609455058751,
"metro": "Orlando",
"target": 0.7544241796802401,
"buyerRel": -0.017321327670044018,
"targetRel": -0.10905809349567896
},
{
"lat": 40.7608,
"lon": -111.891,
"buyer": 0.9110029107020463,
"metro": "Salt Lake City",
"target": 0.808132062861362,
"buyerRel": -0.008274856776990136,
"targetRel": -0.11114570461767448
},
{
"lat": 39.7392,
"lon": -104.9903,
"buyer": 0.9593531371483174,
"metro": "Denver",
"target": 0.8235573062488317,
"buyerRel": 0.023291616088475298,
"targetRel": -0.11250421481101036
},
{
"lat": 40.7128,
"lon": -74.006,
"buyer": 0.9382406221219367,
"metro": "New York",
"target": 0.7967821574856301,
"buyerRel": 0.02872735443791985,
"targetRel": -0.11273111019838677
},
{
"lat": 36.1699,
"lon": -115.1398,
"buyer": 0.8408845461485173,
"metro": "Las Vegas",
"target": 0.7562164224492366,
"buyerRel": -0.03452769297597036,
"targetRel": -0.11919581667525103
},
{
"lat": 34.0522,
"lon": -118.2437,
"buyer": 0.893170252135341,
"metro": "Los Angeles",
"target": 0.7856115990687444,
"buyerRel": -0.018147967992925063,
"targetRel": -0.12570662105952157
}
],
"correlation": -0.5697846167632805,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 45.5152,
"lon": -122.6784,
"buyer": 0.9426367608309525,
"metro": "Portland",
"target": 0.7541818812012171,
"buyerRel": 0.04601439043401434,
"targetRel": -0.14244048919572105
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 12,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.460515719992653,
"correlation": -0.07896856001469411
}
},
{
"id": "t2-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": 0.11893911032258009,
"value": 0.5198231850537633,
"priorSd": 0.0016913557535310404,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": -0.02300471407001292,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": -0.02062593186356132
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.3690696956512553,
"value": 0.5615116159418759
}
},
{
"id": "t2-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Maurten",
"data": {
"name": "Maurten",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "On",
"score": 0.2575053338735922
},
{
"name": "HOKA",
"score": 0.25748541299164596
},
{
"name": "Tracksmith",
"score": 0.25229634293490577
},
{
"name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
"score": 0.23271291019985596
}
],
"ownership": "unknown",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States",
"Europe"
],
"popularity": 0.7295604414232679,
"screenRank": 4,
"foundedYear": 2015,
"priceRangeUsd": [
35,
100
],
"ultimateParent": null,
"forwardAffinity": 0.934746883509087,
"competitorBrands": [
"Gu Energy Labs",
"SiS",
"Hammer Nutrition",
"Skratch Labs",
"Precision Hydration"
],
"sharedCategories": [],
"knownPartnerships": [
"Major Marathons",
"IRONMAN",
"L'Étape Du Tour De France",
"PTO"
],
"marketPositioning": "Premium, science-first sports nutrition provider for serious endurance athletes seeking optimized performance and gastrointestinal tolerance."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t2-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 58.29355420187904,
"points": {
"m1": 22.88574933244082,
"m2": 3.3014354066985634,
"m3": 8.558825748923317,
"m4": 5.8017712460198485,
"m5": 2.151076916183597,
"m6": 15.5946955516129
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 64.05637653955682
}
}
]