Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #5 of 8

Athletic Greens

Premium daily foundational supplement for high-performing individuals seeking comprehensive nutritional optimization.

Founded 2010 · Competes with Garden of Life, Organifi, Amazing Grass, Vital Proteins · Partnerships: The Huberman Lab Podcast, Tim Ferriss

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
64.1F / 100
85% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 64.1 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.88
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap not measured
n/a
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
Qloo returned no taste profile for this target.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.86
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.48
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.48
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.47
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2525.9
Taste-profile overlapnot measured–
Cross-domain agreement0.1010.1
Demographic alignment0.105.7
Geographic footprint0.105.7
Momentum0.3016.7
F64.1

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Athletic Brewing Co (0.26), HOKA (0.25), On (0.25), Tracksmith (0.24).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Athletic Greens’s audience embraces them.

Music0.88
Embraced: The Wood Brothers, Jamestown Revival, Trampled by Turtles · Least shared: Tom Petty, Alabama Shakes, Mudcrutch
TV0.90
Embraced: Old Enough!, Blown Away, Lego Masters · Least shared: American Ninja Warrior, The Challenge, Survivor
Film0.82
Embraced: Becoming Warren Buffett, The Redeemed and the Dominant: Fittest on Earth, The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young · Least shared: Dark Waters, The Peanut Butter Falcon, The Wall: Climb for Gold
Podcasts0.83
Embraced: The Model Health Show, Boundless Life, The Genius Life · Least shared: the morning shakeout podcast, On Coaching with Magness & Marcus, The Running for Real Podcast

Taste profile overlap

Qloo returned no taste profile for this target.

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Athletic Greens
-0.78-0.390.00+0.39+0.78≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.16 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Athletic Greens strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Nashville, Atlanta, Tampa, Dallas, Jacksonville, Houston, Miami, Honolulu

Shared strongholds

Minneapolis, Cleveland, New Orleans

Bull vs bear

9 of 10 claims survived the judge; 1 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The composite score sits at the shortlist average, and the code raised no red flags, so the deal clears the screen on a no-flag basis rather than failing on a specific risk.

    t7-score.F = 64.11t7-score.coverage = 0.85

  • Geographic footprint is the clearest strength: the audience overlap is aggregate and relative to the cohort at 0.484, well above the shortlist average of 0.461, with a positive gap in strongholds such as Minneapolis and Cleveland.

    t7-m5.value = 0.4841t7-m5.strongholds[0].buyerRel = 0.064t7-m5.coverage = 1

  • Two-way audience affinity shows the pair is closely linked in taste space: the ratio of the two directions is 0.961, a strength against the shortlist, indicating the audiences mirror each other in aggregate even though absolute affinity is slightly below average.

    t7-m1.ratio = 0.9611t7-m1.coverage = 1

  • Cross-domain agreement shows a strong aggregate pull in the music domain, where the audience scores 0.880 against a shortlist average of 0.865, pointing to a shared cultural lane for co-branded content.

    t7-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8804t7-m3.coverage = 1

  • Momentum is a limit on the bull case rather than a support, so it is not cited here; the strongest remaining lever is that the Athletic Greens profile lists HOKA among its top taste drivers with a score of 0.254, a sign of aggregate adjacency worth exploring in a pilot.

    t7-profile.drivers[1].score = 0.2538

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Two-way audience affinity is weak: the audience over-indexes on Athletic Greens at 0.880 against a shortlist average of 0.896, and on HOKA at 0.863 against 0.878, so the overlap sits below the peer group on both sides.

    t7-m1.value = 0.8804t7-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8957t7-m1.b = 0.8633

  • Demographic alignment is the clearest gap: the buyer's audience skews male (0.33) while the target's skews female (0.35), the largest bucket gap, and the demographic cosine is -0.034 against a shortlist average of 0.313.

    t7-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.33t7-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.35t7-m4.cosine = -0.03418t7-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.313

  • Cross-domain agreement is below the shortlist on three of four domains: TV, film and podcasts all read as weaknesses, with the film score at 0.823 against a shortlist average of 0.856, so shared taste is narrow to music.

    t7-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8228t7-m3.value = 0.86t7-m3.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8787

  • Momentum is flat to slightly negative: the z-score is -0.157 against a shortlist average of 0.369, so the aggregate audience signal is not gaining ground and the composite leans on a weak trend.

    t7-m6.z = -0.1575t7-m6.shortlistAverages.z = 0.3691

  • The composite of 64.1 sits essentially at the shortlist average of 64.1 and rests on geography, which is the one strength; the code raised no red flags, but the taste-profile overlap (m2) is missing entirely, so the diligence must obtain it before any VC thesis is pursued.

    t7-score.F = 64.11t7-score.coverage = 0.85t7-m2.coverage = 0

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 64.1094 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (64.0564)

IC memo

Number check passed: 23 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Athletic Greens: WATCH

Recommendation. Athletic Greens scores F 64.1, inside the 62 to 67 WATCH band, and the code raised no red flags, so it clears the screen without failing on a specific risk. It sits at the shortlist average, so it earns a pilot discussion, not a commitment. Taste-profile overlap was not returned by Qloo, which leaves one of six measures unscored.

Where the audiences meet. The strongest validated evidence is geographic. Aggregate footprint overlap is 0.484 against a shortlist average of 0.461, with positive gaps in strongholds Minneapolis and Cleveland. Two-way affinity is closely linked in ratio terms (0.961), so the two audiences mirror each other in aggregate even though absolute affinity is slightly below average. In music, the shared audience scores 0.880 against a shortlist average of 0.865, pointing to a possible shared lane for co-branded content.

Risks.

  • Two-way affinity is weak in absolute terms: 0.880 against 0.896 for Athletic Greens, and 0.863 against 0.878 for HOKA.
  • Demographics diverge. The buyer audience skews male (0.33) and the target skews female (0.35). The demographic cosine is -0.034 against a shortlist average of 0.313.
  • Cross-domain agreement is below the shortlist on three of four domains. Film is 0.823 against 0.856, so shared taste is narrow to music.
  • Momentum is flat to slightly negative, with a z-score of -0.157 against a shortlist average of 0.369. The composite leans on a weak trend.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot show on the weak two-way affinity, given the 0.880 and 0.863 readings?
  • Can a pilot test the male/female skew directly, given the -0.034 demographic cosine?
  • Does the music overlap hold up in content formats outside music, where film and TV read weak?
  • Is there a reason to expect momentum to turn, or should the trend be treated as a standing drag?
  • Can Qloo return a taste-profile overlap for this target before any decision?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok50 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsempty0 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok7371 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t7-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8982361285123511,
   "b": 0.8632729688696241,
   "ratio": 0.9610757588868836,
   "value": 0.8804075670790221,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8863613862346169
    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.8764956113364486
    },
    {
     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8537300655884246
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.8365048123190062
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9142067566664733,
   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
   "ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "note": "Qloo returned no taste profile for this target.",
   "value": null,
   "coverage": 0
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8599965204734277,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8488482117370856
      },
      {
       "name": "Alabama Shakes",
       "affinity": 0.8506349560002034
      },
      {
       "name": "Mudcrutch",
       "affinity": 0.8553363153539078
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8804270186759549,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Wood Brothers",
       "affinity": 0.909897422592137
      },
      {
       "name": "Jamestown Revival",
       "affinity": 0.9057625900529763
      },
      {
       "name": "Trampled by Turtles",
       "affinity": 0.9052412195962112
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "American Ninja Warrior",
       "affinity": 0.8744550959957328
      },
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.8777711552557496
      },
      {
       "name": "Survivor",
       "affinity": 0.8871631230915604
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9040233418570222,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.940268059029767
      },
      {
       "name": "Blown Away",
       "affinity": 0.9355077591170992
      },
      {
       "name": "Lego Masters",
       "affinity": 0.9219444971235536
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Dark Waters",
       "affinity": 0.7674894551720982
      },
      {
       "name": "The Peanut Butter Falcon",
       "affinity": 0.7718580060136639
      },
      {
       "name": "The Wall: Climb for Gold",
       "affinity": 0.7759954860550797
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8228065778751297,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Becoming Warren Buffett",
       "affinity": 0.865796288476378
      },
      {
       "name": "The Redeemed and the Dominant: Fittest on Earth",
       "affinity": 0.8654144782719025
      },
      {
       "name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
       "affinity": 0.8653275733170244
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     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "the morning shakeout podcast",
       "affinity": 0.7496059118035445
      },
      {
       "name": "On Coaching with Magness & Marcus",
       "affinity": 0.7737914041495457
      },
      {
       "name": "The Running for Real Podcast",
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     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8327291434856042,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Model Health Show",
       "affinity": 0.98319220532029
      },
      {
       "name": "Boundless Life",
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      {
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   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[0].score": 0.8646246964099812,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9174851346497923,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8762767200479108,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8564197874689529
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
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    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
   },
   "value": 0.48290993696588097,
   "cosine": -0.034180126068238094,
   "target": {
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    "female": 0.3500000000000001,
    "25_to_29": -0.14159999999999998,
    "30_to_34": -0.1622,
    "35_to_44": 0.05619999999999999,
    "45_to_54": -0.17919999999999997,
    "55_and_older": -0.23579999999999998,
    "24_and_younger": -0.020199999999999996
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
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    "bucket": "male",
    "target": -0.3500000000000001
   }
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   "cosine": 0.31297951360243037
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 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.48410867016943,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
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     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.8297116121273177,
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     "targetRel": -0.004450820858938331
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.749,
     "lon": -84.388,
     "buyer": 0.846706920331274,
     "metro": "Atlanta",
     "target": 0.8146252823018939,
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     "targetRel": -0.008842808892956855
    },
    {
     "lat": 27.9506,
     "lon": -82.4572,
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     "metro": "Tampa",
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     "targetRel": -0.010216811547606341
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.7767,
     "lon": -96.797,
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     "metro": "Dallas",
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     "buyerRel": 0.018452499506307785,
     "targetRel": -0.010977946849943243
    },
    {
     "lat": 30.3322,
     "lon": -81.6557,
     "buyer": 0.8500371301561284,
     "metro": "Jacksonville",
     "target": 0.8156988970205504,
     "buyerRel": 0.021321232330591355,
     "targetRel": -0.013017000804986578
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.7604,
     "lon": -95.3698,
     "buyer": 0.8757422357900101,
     "metro": "Houston",
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     "targetRel": -0.015724493565217768
    },
    {
     "lat": 25.7617,
     "lon": -80.1918,
     "buyer": 0.8162518123316667,
     "metro": "Miami",
     "target": 0.859622988971391,
     "buyerRel": -0.05981641638735746,
     "targetRel": -0.016445239747633122
    },
    {
     "lat": 21.3069,
     "lon": -157.8583,
     "buyer": 0.9291044691055944,
     "metro": "Honolulu",
     "target": 0.8980235720843037,
     "buyerRel": 0.005809280782782311,
     "targetRel": -0.025271616238508376
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.03178265966114004,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
     "buyer": 0.9263430202196176,
     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.8497747870085333,
     "buyerRel": 0.06399564871366115,
     "targetRel": -0.012572584497423156
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.4993,
     "lon": -81.6944,
     "buyer": 0.9095332748721432,
     "metro": "Cleveland",
     "target": 0.838301847400781,
     "buyerRel": 0.06042060565596985,
     "targetRel": -0.01081082181539239
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
     "lon": -90.0715,
     "buyer": 0.793145078759221,
     "metro": "New Orleans",
     "target": 0.7335664899156369,
     "buyerRel": 0.04572248364468401,
     "targetRel": -0.013856105198900126
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 9,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.460515719992653,
   "correlation": -0.07896856001469411
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.15746181543684346,
   "value": 0.4737563640938594,
   "priorSd": 0.002913299139789182,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.11167748186335658,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.11482671817209344
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.3690696956512553,
   "value": 0.5615116159418759
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Athletic Greens",
  "data": {
   "name": "Athletic Greens",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.2566863026521104
    },
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.253829218261096
    },
    {
     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.2472364177886587
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.24224806129813484
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Canada",
    "United Kingdom",
    "Australia"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.8735061280534319,
   "screenRank": 11,
   "foundedYear": 2010,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    79,
    99
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8982361285123511,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Garden of Life",
    "Organifi",
    "Amazing Grass",
    "Vital Proteins",
    "Ritual"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "The Huberman Lab Podcast",
    "Tim Ferriss"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium daily foundational supplement for high-performing individuals seeking comprehensive nutritional optimization."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 64.10944867750439,
   "points": {
    "m1": 25.89434020820654,
    "m2": 0,
    "m3": 10.117606123216797,
    "m4": 5.681293376069188,
    "m5": 5.695396119640353,
    "m6": 16.72081285037151
   },
   "coverage": 0.8499999999999999
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.05637653955682
  }
 }
]