M&A bolt-on · Starbucks → target #4 of 8
Dutch Bros. Coffee
Accessible, high-energy drive-through coffee chain prioritizing speed, friendliness, and extensive customization options.
Founded 1992 · Parent: Dutch Bros Inc. · Competes with Starbucks, Dunkin', 7 Brew Coffee, Scooter's Coffee · Partnerships: Bad Birdie
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Why this verdict
F 53.9 < 62.
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for M&A bolt-on, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.30 | 23.4 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.20 | 4.0 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.15 | 12.9 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.15 | 6.4 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 2.1 |
| Momentum | 0.10 | 5.1 |
| F | 53.9 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Starbucks (1.00).
Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Food & Beverage, Drinks, Coffee & Tea.
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Dutch Bros. Coffee’s audience embraces them.
Taste profile overlap
19 of 81 top taste tags shared.
Manga, Cafe, japanese drama, based on manga, live action adaptation
Cioppino, country, Juice shop, best friend, male protagonist
Audience shape
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = 0.07 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
Tucson, Portland, Sacramento, Phoenix, Seattle, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, San Jose
Anchorage
Bull vs bear
3 of 10 claims survived the judge; 7 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
The composite score of 53.86 sits marginally above the shortlist average of 53.69, with the audience-affinity component (m1) contributing the largest share of points at 23.37, so the overall case is supported by the strongest measures.
t1-score.F = 53.86t1-score.points.m1 = 23.37Audience affinity for Dutch Bros is strong and mirrors the buyer: the two-way affinity between the brands is 0.779, above the shortlist average of 0.666, meaning the Starbucks audience over-indexes on Dutch Bros to a notable degree.
t1-m1.value = 0.779t1-m1.value = 0.6656Rejected by the judge: cited 0.6656 for m1 Two-way audience affinity "value", but the ledger says 0.779
Cross-domain agreement is the deal's clearest strength: the aggregate audience shows high agreement across domains, with the film score at 0.895 and the TV score at 0.920, both above their shortlist averages.
t1-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8946t1-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9201t1-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8738Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8738 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[1].score", but the ledger says 0.9201
Shared taste territory is broad: 19 shared taste tags against a shortlist average of 13.5, and 60% of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target, which the code reads as a strength in differentiation room.
t1-m2.sharedCount = 19t1-m2.sharedCount = 13.5t1-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.6Rejected by the judge: cited 13.5 for m2 Taste-profile overlap "sharedCount", but the ledger says 19
Momentum and geographic reach are the open questions; the Dutch Bros entity profile shows a popularity of 0.924 and a forward affinity to Starbucks of 0.779, indicating the target's audience pull is high even though the code does not flag fading.
NO_GEO_OVERLAPt1-profile.popularity = 0.9238t1-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.779Rejected by the judge: nothing to mitigate: the code rules did not raise NO_GEO_OVERLAP
Bear: against, or diligence first
Demographic misalignment is the sharpest weakness: the buyer's audience skews 55 and older at -0.54 against the target's 0.57, and the demographic cosine is -0.146 versus a shortlist average of 0.099, so the two audiences point in opposite age directions.
t1-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.54t1-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.57t1-m4.cosine = -0.1461Geographic footprint runs against the deal thesis: the buyer-target footprint correlation is -0.581, and 12 metros are white space where the buyer is strong but the target is not, which means a bolt-on could be stacking coverage into markets where the target has little affinity.
t1-m5.correlation = -0.5812t1-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 12Bear case on fit: the audience's taste-profile overlap with Dutch Bros is thin, with only 19 shared tags against a shortlist average of 13.5 and an overlap value of 0.199 that is much lower than the shortlist's own overlap averages, so the combined taste graph is less overlapping than the headline affinity suggests.
t1-m2.value = 0.1989t1-m2.sharedCount = 19Rejected by the judge: cites m2 Taste-profile overlap "value" = 0.1989 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.1302)
Momentum is weak: the target's momentum z-score is 0.071 against a shortlist average of 0.249, so the audience signal is not accelerating and any synergy case should not assume growth from recent trends.
t1-m6.z = 0.07052t1-m6.z = 0.2486Rejected by the judge: cited 0.2486 for m6 Momentum "z", but the ledger says 0.0705
Diligence required before any bid: the strong two-way affinity (0.779) is driven by a single reverse link to Starbucks and a profile where Starbucks is the only driver, so the committee should test whether the affinity reflects genuine independent audiences or a single-brand reference, and should confirm the aggregate age and geography findings with first-party data before relying on the composite score of 53.86.
t1-m1.value = 0.779t1-profile.drivers[0].score = 1Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.779 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.6656)
Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 14 of 14 candidates scored | live 94 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 14 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 9 of 9 entities | live 56 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | live 412 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | live 530 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 1157 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | live 1538 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | live 3427 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 10900 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 3659 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 322 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 321 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 322 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 327 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 601 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 614 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 1 of 1 candidates scored | live 9850 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 10725 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 10887 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 10950 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 11258 ms | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 3 shared catalogue tag(s) | live 11417 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 12256 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 5018 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 15638 ms |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t1-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": []
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t1-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.7790490319347009,
"b": 0.7790490319347009,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.779049031934701,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "B13C02E3-BA3C-4B39-85B4-ACF12FEBC892",
"name": "Starbucks",
"affinity": 0.7790490319347009
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.6656015264478415,
"b": 0.6656015264478415,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.6656015264478415
}
},
{
"id": "t1-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.19887165021156553,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:high_school",
"name": "high school",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenager",
"name": "teenager",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
"name": "friendship",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenage_girl",
"name": "teenage girl",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
"name": "female protagonist",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
"name": "indie",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:manga",
"name": "Manga",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:cafe",
"name": "Cafe",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:japanese_drama",
"name": "japanese drama",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_manga",
"name": "based on manga",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:live_action_adaptation",
"name": "live action adaptation",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:cioppino",
"name": "Cioppino",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
"name": "country",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:juice_shop",
"name": "Juice shop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:best_friend",
"name": "best friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:male_protagonist",
"name": "male protagonist",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"unionCount": 81,
"sharedCount": 19,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.6
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.13021980374501824,
"sharedCount": 13.5,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.7375
}
},
{
"id": "t1-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.8599769662943025,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "f(x)",
"affinity": 0.7696867876228294
},
{
"name": "EXID",
"affinity": 0.7730894905663119
},
{
"name": "Wonder Girls",
"affinity": 0.7762598599850455
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.7985933314877249,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Taylor Swift",
"affinity": 0.9096472650171237
},
{
"name": "Ariana Grande",
"affinity": 0.8719800155132675
},
{
"name": "BTS",
"affinity": 0.8223154061348719
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Private Practice",
"affinity": 0.8860682002076439
},
{
"name": "Ginny & Georgia",
"affinity": 0.9013987365680396
},
{
"name": "Hart of Dixie",
"affinity": 0.9074056970680647
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.9201194013843328,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Friends from College",
"affinity": 0.9435510532193226
},
{
"name": "Workin' Moms",
"affinity": 0.9416028582175353
},
{
"name": "Better Things",
"affinity": 0.9408160594783705
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Beauty and the Beast",
"affinity": 0.8270597029548121
},
{
"name": "Hidden Figures",
"affinity": 0.8434005620326069
},
{
"name": "Lion",
"affinity": 0.8464402490570873
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.894626664261244,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Lady Bird",
"affinity": 0.953414695580673
},
{
"name": "Crazy Rich Asians",
"affinity": 0.9436458268530609
},
{
"name": "To All the Boys I've Loved Before",
"affinity": 0.9370048157068478
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Stanning BTS",
"affinity": 0.7680802093544572
},
{
"name": "I Think You're Dope w/ Eric Nam",
"affinity": 0.7767853679031652
},
{
"name": "PENTAGON's Jack Pod",
"affinity": 0.7768429856492419
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.8265684680439084,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Off The Vine with Kaitlyn Bristowe",
"affinity": 0.9154914985306633
},
{
"name": "Zane and Heath: Unfiltered",
"affinity": 0.8854959627601837
},
{
"name": "LadyGang",
"affinity": 0.8844757314850512
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8006435967791996,
"domains[0].score": 0.7558883662204854,
"domains[1].score": 0.8738105180061315,
"domains[2].score": 0.8301890189706208,
"domains[3].score": 0.7426864839195607
}
},
{
"id": "t1-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": -0.32,
"female": 0.32,
"25_to_29": 0.32,
"30_to_34": 0.29,
"35_to_44": -0.68,
"45_to_54": -0.41000000000000003,
"55_and_older": -0.54,
"24_and_younger": 0.35000000000000003
},
"value": 0.42692650177425207,
"cosine": -0.14614699645149581,
"target": {
"male": -0.34,
"female": 0.34,
"25_to_29": -0.12,
"30_to_34": -0.6900000000000001,
"35_to_44": 0.02,
"45_to_54": -0.49,
"55_and_older": 0.5700000000000001,
"24_and_younger": -0.17
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": -0.54,
"bucket": "55_and_older",
"target": 0.5700000000000001
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.549469416340185,
"cosine": 0.09893883268036997
}
},
{
"id": "t1-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.20940924543499045,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 32.2226,
"lon": -110.9747,
"buyer": 0.9928531983321991,
"metro": "Tucson",
"target": 0.9764746391814245,
"buyerRel": 0.1266513363028764,
"targetRel": 0.11027277715210182
},
{
"lat": 45.5152,
"lon": -122.6784,
"buyer": 0.9929958142836254,
"metro": "Portland",
"target": 0.9975501552094636,
"buyerRel": 0.08060484365071718,
"targetRel": 0.08515918457655536
},
{
"lat": 38.5816,
"lon": -121.4944,
"buyer": 0.9981402331791654,
"metro": "Sacramento",
"target": 0.995467305211695,
"buyerRel": 0.0772074759381578,
"targetRel": 0.07453454797068737
},
{
"lat": 33.4484,
"lon": -112.074,
"buyer": 0.9959586204325361,
"metro": "Phoenix",
"target": 0.9959331072884874,
"buyerRel": 0.06580384803659212,
"targetRel": 0.06577833489254337
},
{
"lat": 47.6062,
"lon": -122.3321,
"buyer": 0.9976298916492312,
"metro": "Seattle",
"target": 0.9729498590104859,
"buyerRel": 0.0753352094302796,
"targetRel": 0.050655176791534307
},
{
"lat": 36.1699,
"lon": -115.1398,
"buyer": 0.9956219596873354,
"metro": "Las Vegas",
"target": 0.960159196023776,
"buyerRel": 0.08405688787303356,
"targetRel": 0.04859412420947418
},
{
"lat": 40.7608,
"lon": -111.891,
"buyer": 0.9909735825311338,
"metro": "Salt Lake City",
"target": 0.9041683653912841,
"buyerRel": 0.1110108123594874,
"targetRel": 0.02420559521963772
},
{
"lat": 37.3382,
"lon": -121.8863,
"buyer": 0.997238782902343,
"metro": "San Jose",
"target": 0.9509218375040721,
"buyerRel": 0.06532603448814989,
"targetRel": 0.019009089089878972
}
],
"correlation": -0.5811815091300191,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 61.2181,
"lon": -149.9003,
"buyer": 0.985801446368868,
"metro": "Anchorage",
"target": 0.8776279116862591,
"buyerRel": 0.15605462921433677,
"targetRel": 0.04788109453172784
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 12,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.5454106162909474,
"correlation": 0.09082123258189484
}
},
{
"id": "t1-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": 0.0705192833567736,
"value": 0.5117532138927956,
"priorSd": 0.0009319506994743659,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": -0.28932805255097693,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": -0.28791766688384146
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.24859334489178028,
"value": 0.5414322241486301
}
},
{
"id": "t1-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Dutch Bros. Coffee",
"data": {
"name": "Dutch Bros. Coffee",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "Starbucks",
"score": 1
}
],
"ownership": "independent",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States"
],
"popularity": 0.9237680324117238,
"screenRank": 2,
"foundedYear": 1992,
"priceRangeUsd": [
3,
8
],
"ultimateParent": "Dutch Bros Inc.",
"forwardAffinity": 0.7790490319347009,
"competitorBrands": [
"Starbucks",
"Dunkin'",
"7 Brew Coffee",
"Scooter's Coffee"
],
"sharedCategories": [
{
"name": "Food & Beverage",
"score": 0.7305072539555804
},
{
"name": "Drinks",
"score": 0.7297067290653321
},
{
"name": "Coffee & Tea",
"score": 0.7265467579953535
}
],
"knownPartnerships": [
"Bad Birdie"
],
"marketPositioning": "Accessible, high-energy drive-through coffee chain prioritizing speed, friendliness, and extensive customization options."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t1-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 53.86408057657852,
"points": {
"m1": 23.37147095804103,
"m2": 3.9774330042313104,
"m3": 12.899654494414538,
"m4": 6.403897526613781,
"m5": 2.0940924543499047,
"m6": 5.117532138927956
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 53.69256546952215
}
}
]