M&A bolt-on · Starbucks → target #7 of 8
Death Wish Coffee Co.
Premium, high-caffeine coffee for bold consumers seeking superior strength without sacrificing flavor.
Founded 2012 · Competes with Black Rifle Coffee Company, Stumptown Coffee Roasters, Intelligentsia Coffee
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Why this verdict
F 52.1 < 62 and unmitigated red flag(s): TASTE_CLASH.
- TASTE_CLASH: > 50% of the buyer's top-20 tags missing from the target's top-50, and m2 < 0.15 (observed m2 0.10, buyerTop20MissingShare 0.85)
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for M&A bolt-on, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.30 | 19.0 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.20 | 1.9 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.15 | 11.6 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.15 | 6.2 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 8.4 |
| Momentum | 0.10 | 4.9 |
| F | 52.1 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Starbucks (1.00).
Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Food & Beverage, Drinks, Coffee & Tea.
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Death Wish Coffee Co.’s audience embraces them.
Taste profile overlap
11 of 89 top taste tags shared.
Manga, Cafe, japanese drama, based on manga, live action adaptation
Chips Salsa, heavy metal, dark comedy, metal, superhero
Audience shape
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = -0.07 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
Albuquerque
Louisville, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Columbus, Cincinnati, Virginia Beach, Indianapolis
Bull vs bear
5 of 10 claims survived the judge; 5 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
The strongest bull point is geographic footprint: the aggregate audience affinity across metros is high for both brands, and the metro-level correlation between buyer and target affinity is a clear strength versus the shortlist.
t6-m5.value = 0.8424t6-m5.correlation = 0.6848t6-m5.shortlistAverages.correlation = 0.09082Within the footprint, the target's audience affinity is concentrated in Midwest and Mid-Atlantic strongholds such as Louisville, Buffalo and Pittsburgh, where the buyer's own affinity is also near saturation, which suggests a shared-territory base to build on rather than a gap to open.
t6-m5.strongholds[1].target = 0.9379t6-m5.strongholds[1].buyer = 0.9983t6-m5.strongholds[2].target = 0.9302Qloo's profile lists Starbucks as the sole driver of the target's audience with a full score, and the forward affinity from Starbucks to the target is at the same level as the reverse affinity, indicating a symmetric aggregate link between the two brands.
t6-profile.drivers[0].score = 1t6-m1.ratio = 1t6-m1.value = 0.6324Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.6324 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.6656)
Cross-domain agreement is a mitigating point: the target's audience shows high affinity across TV and film shortlists, with the TV domain score near 0.85 even though it sits below the shortlist average, supporting a broader lifestyle-content overlap that a combined media and coffee offer could use.
t6-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8491t6-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8132Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[1].score" = 0.8491 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8738)
The taste-clash flag is real, since the buyer's top tags are largely absent from the target's profile, but the target's audience still shares a core of 11 aggregate tags with the buyer, and the cafe and manga tags on the buyer side are a plausible bridge for a joint offer.
TASTE_CLASHt6-m2.sharedCount = 11t6-m2.unionCount = 89Rejected by the judge: TASTE_CLASH cannot be mitigated (only FADING and NO_GEO_OVERLAP can)
Bear: against, or diligence first
The code raised a TASTE_CLASH flag: 85% of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target's top-50, and taste-profile overlap (m2) is only 0.096. Aggregate audiences of the two brands share very little taste structure, so the cross-sell logic behind a bolt-on is weak.
TASTE_CLASHt6-m2.value = 0.09583t6-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.85Demographic alignment is weak: the cosine between buyer and target age and gender profiles is -0.169, against a shortlist average of 0.099. The buyer's audience over-indexes on 24-and-younger and 25-to-29 segments while the target's aggregate affinity is strongest at 55-and-older and 45-to-54, so the buyer's largest gap sits in the 55-and-older bucket.
t6-m4.cosine = -0.1691t6-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.37t6-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.54Momentum is negative and below peers: the z-score is -0.073 against a shortlist average of 0.249, and the normalised recent audience mean sits under the prior mean. Diligence must establish whether the target's audience engagement is declining before any price is set.
t6-m6.z = -0.07344t6-m6.value = 0.4878Taste-profile overlap is well below the shortlist average (0.096 against 0.130), with only 11 shared tags against a shortlist average of 13.5, so the target's audience is less similar to the buyer's than peer targets are.
t6-m2.sharedCount = 11t6-m2.value = 0.09583shortlistAverages.shortlistAverages.sharedCount = 13.5Rejected by the judge: cited evidence "shortlistAverages" is not in this target's ledger
Two-way audience affinity is weak at 0.632 against a shortlist average of 0.666, and the target's own profile lists Starbucks as its only driver with no known partnerships, so the affinity is one-directional brand proximity rather than shared-audience evidence. Diligence should confirm that this affinity is not an artefact of the Starbucks tie.
t6-m1.value = 0.6324t6-profile.knownPartnerships = 0Rejected by the judge: "knownPartnerships" does not resolve to a number in t6-profile
Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 14 of 14 candidates scored | live 94 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 14 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 9 of 9 entities | live 56 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | live 412 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | live 530 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 1157 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | live 1538 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | live 3427 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 10900 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 3659 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 322 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 321 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 322 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 327 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 601 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 614 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 1 of 1 candidates scored | live 7683 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 8523 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 9694 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 9768 ms | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 3 shared catalogue tag(s) | live 9801 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 10176 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 10510 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 5996 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 11989 ms |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t6-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": [
{
"m2": 0.09583154275891705,
"flag": "TASTE_CLASH",
"rule": "> 50% of the buyer's top-20 tags missing from the target's top-50, and m2 < 0.15",
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.85
}
]
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t6-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.6323851241369643,
"b": 0.6323851241369643,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.6323851241369643,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "B13C02E3-BA3C-4B39-85B4-ACF12FEBC892",
"name": "Starbucks",
"affinity": 0.6323851241369643
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.6656015264478415,
"b": 0.6656015264478415,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.6656015264478415
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.09583154275891705,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
"name": "friendship",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
"name": "female protagonist",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:fight",
"name": "fight",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:violence",
"name": "violence",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
"name": "Alternative Rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:murder",
"name": "murder",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:manga",
"name": "Manga",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:cafe",
"name": "Cafe",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:japanese_drama",
"name": "japanese drama",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_manga",
"name": "based on manga",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:live_action_adaptation",
"name": "live action adaptation",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:chips_salsa",
"name": "Chips Salsa",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:heavy_metal",
"name": "heavy metal",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:dark_comedy",
"name": "dark comedy",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:metal",
"name": "metal",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:superhero",
"name": "superhero",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"unionCount": 89,
"sharedCount": 11,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.85
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.13021980374501824,
"sharedCount": 13.5,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.7375
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.7763781695997809,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "IU",
"affinity": 0.7185170288396923
},
{
"name": "BLACKPINK",
"affinity": 0.721412881886402
},
{
"name": "SUNMI",
"affinity": 0.7230734570647791
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.7339356021127625,
"shared": [
{
"name": "EXO-K",
"affinity": 0.7543387498815787
},
{
"name": "Stray Kids",
"affinity": 0.7491127322116583
},
{
"name": "Taylor Swift",
"affinity": 0.7463890545393614
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Bold Type",
"affinity": 0.8279647622841393
},
{
"name": "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend",
"affinity": 0.8300882095109842
},
{
"name": "Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life",
"affinity": 0.8339330073520188
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.8490762236970876,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Dead to Me",
"affinity": 0.8707265855636401
},
{
"name": "Ginny & Georgia",
"affinity": 0.8669463810630844
},
{
"name": "Life Sentence",
"affinity": 0.8658098543148743
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Little Women",
"affinity": 0.7278930541172312
},
{
"name": "Me Before You",
"affinity": 0.7452308253166184
},
{
"name": "To All the Boys I've Loved Before",
"affinity": 0.7578516419530376
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.8131880263335011,
"shared": [
{
"name": "The Shape of Water",
"affinity": 0.890487306071872
},
{
"name": "The Greatest Showman",
"affinity": 0.8496081184158951
},
{
"name": "The Big Sick",
"affinity": 0.8477742074014104
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Stanning BTS",
"affinity": 0.6433977131923274
},
{
"name": "Stefanie and Joan's Beauty Bar",
"affinity": 0.6610524180741798
},
{
"name": "Showmance: Glee Recap Edition with Kevin McHale and Jenna Ushkowitz",
"affinity": 0.662551903125043
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.7093128262557725,
"shared": [
{
"name": "VIEWS with David Dobrik & Jason Nash",
"affinity": 0.7509760714251543
},
{
"name": "Off The Vine with Kaitlyn Bristowe",
"affinity": 0.7471959524138992
},
{
"name": "The Tablo Podcast",
"affinity": 0.7456358326975644
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8006435967791996,
"domains[0].score": 0.7558883662204854,
"domains[1].score": 0.8738105180061315,
"domains[2].score": 0.8301890189706208,
"domains[3].score": 0.7426864839195607
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": -0.32,
"female": 0.32,
"25_to_29": 0.32,
"30_to_34": 0.29,
"35_to_44": -0.68,
"45_to_54": -0.41000000000000003,
"55_and_older": -0.54,
"24_and_younger": 0.35000000000000003
},
"value": 0.41543182259141964,
"cosine": -0.1691363548171607,
"target": {
"male": 0.1,
"female": -0.1,
"25_to_29": -0.28,
"30_to_34": -0.58,
"35_to_44": -0.42,
"45_to_54": 0.29,
"55_and_older": 0.37,
"24_and_younger": 0.43
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": -0.54,
"bucket": "55_and_older",
"target": 0.37
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.549469416340185,
"cosine": 0.09893883268036997
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.8424217449008307,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 35.0844,
"lon": -106.6504,
"buyer": 0.9897677206314004,
"metro": "Albuquerque",
"target": 0.9267252245168254,
"buyerRel": 0.1247615733558145,
"targetRel": 0.061719077241239484
}
],
"correlation": 0.6848434898016612,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 38.2527,
"lon": -85.7585,
"buyer": 0.99547873641209,
"metro": "Louisville",
"target": 0.8797035357753917,
"buyerRel": 0.19658633967548422,
"targetRel": 0.080811139038786
},
{
"lat": 42.8864,
"lon": -78.8784,
"buyer": 0.9982895962981143,
"metro": "Buffalo",
"target": 0.9379247501544594,
"buyerRel": 0.15992052835060966,
"targetRel": 0.09955568220695477
},
{
"lat": 40.4406,
"lon": -79.9959,
"buyer": 0.997890256679076,
"metro": "Pittsburgh",
"target": 0.9302027828673832,
"buyerRel": 0.16247486264067912,
"targetRel": 0.0947873888289863
},
{
"lat": 37.5407,
"lon": -77.436,
"buyer": 0.9954701849311437,
"metro": "Richmond",
"target": 0.8563829624825993,
"buyerRel": 0.19455921063153592,
"targetRel": 0.05547198818299148
},
{
"lat": 39.9612,
"lon": -82.9988,
"buyer": 0.9965011923999506,
"metro": "Columbus",
"target": 0.8952711954272492,
"buyerRel": 0.17542107565970855,
"targetRel": 0.07419107868700714
},
{
"lat": 39.1031,
"lon": -84.512,
"buyer": 0.9971305139412303,
"metro": "Cincinnati",
"target": 0.9023577164627855,
"buyerRel": 0.16689163123301687,
"targetRel": 0.07211883375457206
},
{
"lat": 36.8529,
"lon": -75.978,
"buyer": 0.9940768670494438,
"metro": "Virginia Beach",
"target": 0.9197551291214711,
"buyerRel": 0.15421054033996562,
"targetRel": 0.07988880241199292
},
{
"lat": 39.7684,
"lon": -86.1581,
"buyer": 0.9969276995199778,
"metro": "Indianapolis",
"target": 0.911580141774342,
"buyerRel": 0.1567900709822675,
"targetRel": 0.07144251323663164
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 1,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.5454106162909474,
"correlation": 0.09082123258189484
}
},
{
"id": "t6-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": -0.07344296586101473,
"value": 0.4877595056898309,
"priorSd": 0.0014959813962194069,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": 0.009716913811628425,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": 0.00824805449440813
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.24859334489178028,
"value": 0.5414322241486301
}
},
{
"id": "t6-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Death Wish Coffee Co.",
"data": {
"name": "Death Wish Coffee Co.",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "Starbucks",
"score": 1
}
],
"ownership": "unknown",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States"
],
"popularity": 0.8735569832686342,
"screenRank": 11,
"foundedYear": 2012,
"priceRangeUsd": [
19.99,
45
],
"ultimateParent": null,
"forwardAffinity": 0.6323851241369643,
"competitorBrands": [
"Black Rifle Coffee Company",
"Stumptown Coffee Roasters",
"Intelligentsia Coffee"
],
"sharedCategories": [
{
"name": "Food & Beverage",
"score": 0.7305072539555804
},
{
"name": "Drinks",
"score": 0.7297067290653321
},
{
"name": "Coffee & Tea",
"score": 0.7265467579953535
}
],
"knownPartnerships": [],
"marketPositioning": "Premium, high-caffeine coffee for bold consumers seeking superior strength without sacrificing flavor."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t6-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 52.06714696806189,
"points": {
"m1": 18.97155372410893,
"m2": 1.9166308551783409,
"m3": 11.645672543996714,
"m4": 6.2314773388712945,
"m5": 8.424217449008307,
"m6": 4.877595056898309
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 53.69256546952215
}
}
]