M&A bolt-on · Starbucks → target #5 of 8
Black Rifle
Premium, lifestyle-driven coffee brand that leverages strong patriotic and veteran-focused messaging to appeal to a dedicated, values-driven audience.
Founded 2014 · Parent: Black Rifle Coffee Company, Inc. · Competes with Death Wish Coffee, Peet's Coffee, Starbucks, Dunkin' · Partnerships: Hunting Organizations, Veterans Affairs Initiatives
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Why this verdict
F 52.9 < 62 and unmitigated red flag(s): TASTE_CLASH.
- TASTE_CLASH: > 50% of the buyer's top-20 tags missing from the target's top-50, and m2 < 0.15 (observed m2 0.06, buyerTop20MissingShare 0.95)
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for M&A bolt-on, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.30 | 18.9 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.20 | 1.3 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.15 | 11.4 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.15 | 6.5 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 9.8 |
| Momentum | 0.10 | 5.0 |
| F | 52.9 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Starbucks (1.00).
Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Food & Beverage, Drinks, Coffee & Tea.
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Black Rifle’s audience embraces them.
Taste profile overlap
7 of 93 top taste tags shared.
Manga, Cafe, japanese drama, based on manga, live action adaptation
country, Gun shop, Mashed Potatoes, fistfight, heavy metal
Audience shape
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = 0.01 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
none
Birmingham, Louisville, Richmond, Raleigh, Columbus, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
Bull vs bear
6 of 9 claims survived the judge; 3 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
Geographic footprint is the strongest signal: aggregate audience affinity for both brands is concentrated in the same 55 metros, with a footprint correlation of 0.951 against a shortlist average of 0.091, and no white-space metros were found.
t7-m5.correlation = 0.9507t7-m5.metroCount = 55t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 0Black Rifle's audience shows high aggregate affinity in its key markets, with a popularity score of 0.980 and a screen rank of 12, indicating the brand has broad reach that a bolt-on could extend into Starbucks' existing customer base.
t7-profile.popularity = 0.9798t7-profile.screenRank = 12The audience over-indexes on Black Rifle's Starbucks-driven affinity: two-way audience affinity between the brands is 0.629, and the target's forward affinity matches it, so the cross-brand link is real even though it sits below the shortlist average.
t7-m1.value = 0.6286t7-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.6286Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.6286 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.6656)
The composite is close to the shortlist average, and the taste-clash flag is the main drag on it: the buyer's top-20 tags are 95% absent from the target's top-50, so the audiences differ in taste even though they overlap geographically.
TASTE_CLASHt7-flags.flags[0].buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.95t7-score.F = 52.85Rejected by the judge: TASTE_CLASH cannot be mitigated (only FADING and NO_GEO_OVERLAP can)
Cross-domain agreement in TV is strong in aggregate: the target's TV domain score is 0.853 and the audience over-indexes on shared titles such as Life Sentence at 0.889, suggesting a shared media appetite beyond the coffee category.
t7-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8529t7-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.8886Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[1].score" = 0.8529 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8738)
Bear: against, or diligence first
The code raised a TASTE_CLASH flag: 95% of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target's top-50 audience profile, and taste-profile overlap is only 0.063, well below the 0.15 threshold. Aggregate audience tastes barely overlap, which undercuts any assumption that the two brands share a customer taste base for cross-selling.
TASTE_CLASHt7-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.95t7-m2.value = 0.06339Taste-profile overlap is a weakness against the shortlist: the shared-tag count is 7 versus a shortlist average of 13.5, and the missing-share is 0.95 versus 0.7375. The audience over-indexes on distinct tags (for example Manga and Cafe on the buyer side, Gun shop and country on the target side).
t7-m2.sharedCount = 7t7-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.95t7-m2.shortlistAverages.sharedCount = 13.5Demographic alignment is weak: the cosine between buyer and target age and gender profiles is -0.127, against a shortlist average of 0.099. The largest gap is on gender, where the target audience skews male at 0.57 while the buyer sits at -0.32.
t7-m4.cosine = -0.1273t7-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.57t7-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.32The composite score of 52.85 sits just below the shortlist average of 53.69, and the code reads it as a weakness. Two-way audience affinity (0.629 against 0.666) and momentum (z 0.007 against 0.249) also lag the shortlist, so the case rests on geography rather than taste or trajectory.
t7-score.F = 52.85t7-m6.z = 0.006949t7-m6.shortlistAverages.z = 0.2486
Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 14 of 14 candidates scored | live 94 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 14 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 9 of 9 entities | live 56 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | live 412 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | live 530 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 1157 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | live 1538 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | live 3427 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 10900 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 3659 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 322 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 321 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 322 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 327 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 601 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 614 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 3454 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 1 of 1 candidates scored | live 4180 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 4960 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 5255 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 5279 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 5486 ms | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 3 shared catalogue tag(s) | live 5685 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 9894 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 10176 ms |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t7-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": [
{
"m2": 0.06338615512927438,
"flag": "TASTE_CLASH",
"rule": "> 50% of the buyer's top-20 tags missing from the target's top-50, and m2 < 0.15",
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.95
}
]
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t7-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.6285869072576887,
"b": 0.6285869072576887,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.6285869072576887,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "B13C02E3-BA3C-4B39-85B4-ACF12FEBC892",
"name": "Starbucks",
"affinity": 0.6285869072576887
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.6656015264478415,
"b": 0.6656015264478415,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.6656015264478415
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.06338615512927438,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
"name": "friendship",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:violence",
"name": "violence",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
"name": "Alternative Rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:murder",
"name": "murder",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
"name": "family relationships",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:manga",
"name": "Manga",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:cafe",
"name": "Cafe",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:japanese_drama",
"name": "japanese drama",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_manga",
"name": "based on manga",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:live_action_adaptation",
"name": "live action adaptation",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
"name": "country",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:gun_shop",
"name": "Gun shop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:mashed_potatoes",
"name": "Mashed Potatoes",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:fistfight",
"name": "fistfight",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:heavy_metal",
"name": "heavy metal",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"unionCount": 93,
"sharedCount": 7,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.95
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.13021980374501824,
"sharedCount": 13.5,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.7375
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.7609605063271769,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "SUNMI",
"affinity": 0.7050900571794334
},
{
"name": "IVE",
"affinity": 0.7064277092796023
},
{
"name": "Wonder Girls",
"affinity": 0.7129879506793203
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.732003600465087,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Taylor Swift",
"affinity": 0.8136201540337286
},
{
"name": "Ariana Grande",
"affinity": 0.7815228753279424
},
{
"name": "EXO-K",
"affinity": 0.7434215633485998
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel",
"affinity": 0.8090506818811338
},
{
"name": "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend",
"affinity": 0.8293770957973272
},
{
"name": "Jane the Virgin",
"affinity": 0.8329976787168444
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.8528821090447658,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Life Sentence",
"affinity": 0.8886307810542488
},
{
"name": "Good Trouble",
"affinity": 0.8831353099681595
},
{
"name": "Private Practice",
"affinity": 0.8695738301336058
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "To All the Boys I've Loved Before",
"affinity": 0.679085253300938
},
{
"name": "Call Me by Your Name",
"affinity": 0.7020786362083756
},
{
"name": "Beauty and the Beast",
"affinity": 0.703402644509152
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.7571980729999513,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Bohemian Rhapsody",
"affinity": 0.8126429645248792
},
{
"name": "Hidden Figures",
"affinity": 0.8088009240710687
},
{
"name": "Green Book",
"affinity": 0.8057728262289722
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Stanning BTS",
"affinity": 0.6181209079173052
},
{
"name": "Showmance: Glee Recap Edition with Kevin McHale and Jenna Ushkowitz",
"affinity": 0.6426381208719898
},
{
"name": "Psychobabble with Tyler Oakley & Korey Kuhl",
"affinity": 0.6528789550051302
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.7017582427989035,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Zane and Heath: Unfiltered",
"affinity": 0.7455646791172753
},
{
"name": "VIEWS with David Dobrik & Jason Nash",
"affinity": 0.7425475394771692
},
{
"name": "NONSENSIBLE w/ Sam, Dave, and Saul",
"affinity": 0.7404101767364696
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8006435967791996,
"domains[0].score": 0.7558883662204854,
"domains[1].score": 0.8738105180061315,
"domains[2].score": 0.8301890189706208,
"domains[3].score": 0.7426864839195607
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": -0.32,
"female": 0.32,
"25_to_29": 0.32,
"30_to_34": 0.29,
"35_to_44": -0.68,
"45_to_54": -0.41000000000000003,
"55_and_older": -0.54,
"24_and_younger": 0.35000000000000003
},
"value": 0.4363676810843287,
"cosine": -0.1272646378313426,
"target": {
"male": 0.5700000000000001,
"female": -0.5700000000000001,
"25_to_29": -0.37,
"30_to_34": 0.06,
"35_to_44": -0.61,
"45_to_54": 0.30000000000000004,
"55_and_older": 0.02,
"24_and_younger": 0.04
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": -0.32,
"bucket": "male",
"target": 0.5700000000000001
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.549469416340185,
"cosine": 0.09893883268036997
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.9753310370242598,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [],
"correlation": 0.9506620740485198,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 33.5186,
"lon": -86.8104,
"buyer": 0.993136150382904,
"metro": "Birmingham",
"target": 0.9575839708722992,
"buyerRel": 0.2738502839428083,
"targetRel": 0.23829810443220345
},
{
"lat": 38.2527,
"lon": -85.7585,
"buyer": 0.99547873641209,
"metro": "Louisville",
"target": 0.9693227283342374,
"buyerRel": 0.19658633967548422,
"targetRel": 0.17043033159763166
},
{
"lat": 37.5407,
"lon": -77.436,
"buyer": 0.9954701849311437,
"metro": "Richmond",
"target": 0.970047983872322,
"buyerRel": 0.19455921063153592,
"targetRel": 0.16913700957271427
},
{
"lat": 35.7796,
"lon": -78.6382,
"buyer": 0.9977682581312272,
"metro": "Raleigh",
"target": 0.9772362740458931,
"buyerRel": 0.17724332561235256,
"targetRel": 0.1567113415270185
},
{
"lat": 39.9612,
"lon": -82.9988,
"buyer": 0.9965011923999506,
"metro": "Columbus",
"target": 0.9740264188554374,
"buyerRel": 0.17542107565970855,
"targetRel": 0.15294630211519533
},
{
"lat": 29.9511,
"lon": -90.0715,
"buyer": 0.9920657359691225,
"metro": "New Orleans",
"target": 0.9509711569186596,
"buyerRel": 0.17867523827932952,
"targetRel": 0.13758065922886664
},
{
"lat": 39.1031,
"lon": -84.512,
"buyer": 0.9971305139412303,
"metro": "Cincinnati",
"target": 0.9757650171603351,
"buyerRel": 0.16689163123301687,
"targetRel": 0.1455261344521217
},
{
"lat": 40.4406,
"lon": -79.9959,
"buyer": 0.997890256679076,
"metro": "Pittsburgh",
"target": 0.9802617887491402,
"buyerRel": 0.16247486264067912,
"targetRel": 0.14484639471074323
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 0,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.5454106162909474,
"correlation": 0.09082123258189484
}
},
{
"id": "t7-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": 0.0069492849288255165,
"value": 0.5011582141548042,
"priorSd": 0.00010556418246677108,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": -0.1811337185403712,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": -0.18099473284179468
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.24859334489178028,
"value": 0.5414322241486301
}
},
{
"id": "t7-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Black Rifle",
"data": {
"name": "Black Rifle",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "Starbucks",
"score": 1
}
],
"ownership": "independent",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States"
],
"popularity": 0.9797765760878778,
"screenRank": 12,
"foundedYear": 2014,
"priceRangeUsd": [
15,
60
],
"ultimateParent": "Black Rifle Coffee Company, Inc.",
"forwardAffinity": 0.6285869072576887,
"competitorBrands": [
"Death Wish Coffee",
"Peet's Coffee",
"Starbucks",
"Dunkin'"
],
"sharedCategories": [
{
"name": "Food & Beverage",
"score": 0.7305072539555804
},
{
"name": "Drinks",
"score": 0.7297067290653321
},
{
"name": "Coffee & Tea",
"score": 0.7265467579953535
}
],
"knownPartnerships": [
"Hunting Organizations",
"Veterans Affairs Initiatives"
],
"marketPositioning": "Premium, lifestyle-driven coffee brand that leverages strong patriotic and veteran-focused messaging to appeal to a dedicated, values-driven audience."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t7-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 52.850145643279376,
"points": {
"m1": 18.857607217730664,
"m2": 1.2677231025854876,
"m3": 11.414407594907654,
"m4": 6.54551521626493,
"m5": 9.753310370242598,
"m6": 5.011582141548042
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 53.69256546952215
}
}
]