M&A bolt-on · Starbucks → target #8 of 8
Intelligentsia Coffee
Premium, craft-focused specialty coffee brand targeting discerning consumers who value direct trade ethics and superior roast quality.
Founded 1995 · Competes with Stumptown Coffee Roasters, Blue Bottle Coffee, Counter Culture Coffee, Verve Coffee Roasters
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Why this verdict
F 52.0 < 62 and unmitigated red flag(s): TASTE_CLASH.
- TASTE_CLASH: > 50% of the buyer's top-20 tags missing from the target's top-50, and m2 < 0.15 (observed m2 0.10, buyerTop20MissingShare 0.85)
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for M&A bolt-on, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.30 | 19.9 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.20 | 1.9 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.15 | 12.3 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.15 | 8.9 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.10 | 4.0 |
| Momentum | 0.10 | 5.0 |
| F | 52.0 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Starbucks (1.00).
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Intelligentsia Coffee’s audience embraces them.
Taste profile overlap
9 of 91 top taste tags shared.
Manga, japanese drama, based on manga, live action adaptation, J-pop
Avocado Toast, Coffee shop, folk, Cooking, Gnocchi
Audience shape
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = -0.01 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
Chicago, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Detroit, San Jose
Louisville, Indianapolis, Cincinnati
Bull vs bear
6 of 10 claims survived the judge; 4 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
Demographic alignment is a strength: the buyer and target audiences align at 0.591 against a shortlist average of 0.549, and the shape-level cosine of 0.182 is also above the 0.099 shortlist average.
t4-m4.value = 0.591t4-m4.cosine = 0.1819The aggregate audience over-indexes on cross-domain agreement: the audience affinity value across the four domains is 0.8225, above the shortlist average of 0.8006, which the code reads as a strength.
t4-m3.value = 0.8225t4-m3.value = 0.8006Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8006 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "value", but the ledger says 0.8225
Within TV, the shared audience affinity is strong: the domain score of 0.9116 is well above the shortlist average of 0.8738, suggesting the same aggregate audience gravitates to premium-coffee-adjacent screen content.
t4-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9116t4-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8738Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8738 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[1].score", but the ledger says 0.9116
The film domain is also a strength, with an aggregate audience affinity score of 0.8774 against a shortlist average of 0.8302, which gives the bolt-on a lifestyle and brand-positioning story beyond coffee itself.
t4-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8774t4-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8302Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8302 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[2].score", but the ledger says 0.8774
The podcast domain score of 0.7567 sits above the shortlist average of 0.7427, so agreement holds in a fourth media category, though the margin is narrow and the audience overlap is aggregate, not individual.
t4-m3.domains[3].score = 0.7567t4-m3.domains[3].score = 0.7427Rejected by the judge: cited 0.7427 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[3].score", but the ledger says 0.7567
Bear: against, or diligence first
The code raised a TASTE_CLASH flag: 85% of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target's top-50 and taste-profile overlap is only 0.096, so the two audiences share little taste vocabulary in aggregate.
TASTE_CLASHt4-m2.value = 0.09583t4-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.85Taste-profile overlap is a clear weakness against the shortlist: 9 shared tags versus a shortlist average of 13.5, and the shortlist average overlap is 0.130.
t4-m2.sharedCount = 9t4-m2.value = 0.09583t4-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.85Geographic footprint runs against the buyer: the correlation between buyer and target metro affinity is -0.197, a weakness versus the shortlist average of 0.091, so the target's strongholds do not line up with the buyer's footprint.
t4-m5.correlation = -0.1973t4-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 9Momentum is flat and below the shortlist: the z-score is -0.009 against a shortlist average of 0.249, so the aggregate audience signal is not gaining strength for a premium-priced brand.
t4-m6.z = -0.008741t4-m6.value = 0.4985The composite F of 51.97 sits below the shortlist average of 53.69, and the two-way audience affinity of 0.662 is itself a weakness against 0.666, so the deal case rests on diligence not yet done on taste fit and ownership, which the profile lists as unknown.
t4-score.F = 51.97t4-m1.value = 0.6618
Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 14 of 14 candidates scored | live 94 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 14 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 9 of 9 entities | live 56 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | live 412 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | live 530 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 1157 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | live 1538 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | live 3427 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 10900 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 3659 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 322 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 321 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 322 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 327 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 601 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 614 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 1 of 1 candidates scored | live 67 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 138 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 166 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 474 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 486 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 725 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 5158 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 4784 ms | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 0 shared catalogue tag(s) | live 13676 ms |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t4-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": [
{
"m2": 0.09583154275891706,
"flag": "TASTE_CLASH",
"rule": "> 50% of the buyer's top-20 tags missing from the target's top-50, and m2 < 0.15",
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.85
}
]
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t4-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.6618156063499746,
"b": 0.6618156063499746,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.6618156063499746,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "B13C02E3-BA3C-4B39-85B4-ACF12FEBC892",
"name": "Starbucks",
"affinity": 0.6618156063499746
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.6656015264478415,
"b": 0.6656015264478415,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.6656015264478415
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.09583154275891706,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:cafe",
"name": "Cafe",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:french",
"name": "French",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
"name": "friendship",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
"name": "indie",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
"name": "Alternative Rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
"name": "electronic",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:manga",
"name": "Manga",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:japanese_drama",
"name": "japanese drama",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_manga",
"name": "based on manga",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:live_action_adaptation",
"name": "live action adaptation",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:j_pop",
"name": "J-pop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:avocado_toast",
"name": "Avocado Toast",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:coffee_shop",
"name": "Coffee shop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
"name": "folk",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:cooking",
"name": "Cooking",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:gnocchi",
"name": "Gnocchi",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
}
],
"unionCount": 91,
"sharedCount": 9,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.85
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.13021980374501824,
"sharedCount": 13.5,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.7375
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.8225180514100648,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Stray Kids",
"affinity": 0.7181644933470832
},
{
"name": "Itzy",
"affinity": 0.7245502250153596
},
{
"name": "aespa",
"affinity": 0.7251249083958111
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.7444057396485426,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Ariana Grande",
"affinity": 0.8034561792462338
},
{
"name": "Taylor Swift",
"affinity": 0.7955918867158139
},
{
"name": "EXO-K",
"affinity": 0.7623212022081707
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Private Practice",
"affinity": 0.8867875717163964
},
{
"name": "Hart of Dixie",
"affinity": 0.8958016938508828
},
{
"name": "Gilmore Girls",
"affinity": 0.8964217650454409
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.9115663006717604,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Workin' Moms",
"affinity": 0.9409723776719388
},
{
"name": "Better Things",
"affinity": 0.9380533468680031
},
{
"name": "Friends from College",
"affinity": 0.9322063596048522
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Beauty and the Beast",
"affinity": 0.792901329075411
},
{
"name": "Me Before You",
"affinity": 0.7996975163137072
},
{
"name": "La La Land",
"affinity": 0.837171316392023
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.8774210437213396,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Lady Bird",
"affinity": 0.9325092710036871
},
{
"name": "Marriage Story",
"affinity": 0.9251265533385685
},
{
"name": "Crazy Rich Asians",
"affinity": 0.9201373152572889
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "IDOL 42",
"affinity": 0.7029131666011099
},
{
"name": "Gabriel's Podcast",
"affinity": 0.7054426838058262
},
{
"name": "How Did I Get Here? w/ Jae and AleXa",
"affinity": 0.714549928985069
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.7566791215986172,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Pretty Big Deal with Ashley Graham",
"affinity": 0.8101081340917133
},
{
"name": "AsianBossGirl",
"affinity": 0.8025611493609037
},
{
"name": "LadyGang",
"affinity": 0.791032801483409
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8006435967791996,
"domains[0].score": 0.7558883662204854,
"domains[1].score": 0.8738105180061315,
"domains[2].score": 0.8301890189706208,
"domains[3].score": 0.7426864839195607
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": -0.32,
"female": 0.32,
"25_to_29": 0.32,
"30_to_34": 0.29,
"35_to_44": -0.68,
"45_to_54": -0.41000000000000003,
"55_and_older": -0.54,
"24_and_younger": 0.35000000000000003
},
"value": 0.59097318227826,
"cosine": 0.18194636455652008,
"target": {
"male": 0.31,
"female": -0.31,
"25_to_29": -0.42,
"30_to_34": 0.25,
"35_to_44": -0.67,
"45_to_54": 0.14,
"55_and_older": 0.16,
"24_and_younger": 0.54
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": 0.32,
"bucket": "25_to_29",
"target": -0.42
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.549469416340185,
"cosine": 0.09893883268036997
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.40135091430026393,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 41.8781,
"lon": -87.6298,
"buyer": 0.9971741020217509,
"metro": "Chicago",
"target": 0.9813843703611835,
"buyerRel": 0.08398669679443349,
"targetRel": 0.06819696513386608
},
{
"lat": 44.9778,
"lon": -93.265,
"buyer": 0.9970678337156825,
"metro": "Minneapolis",
"target": 0.8916194323906151,
"buyerRel": 0.12660375135123236,
"targetRel": 0.021155350026164976
},
{
"lat": 37.7749,
"lon": -122.4194,
"buyer": 0.9962956640962388,
"metro": "San Francisco",
"target": 0.9569192090156222,
"buyerRel": 0.05847358911128786,
"targetRel": 0.01909713403067126
},
{
"lat": 42.3601,
"lon": -71.0589,
"buyer": 0.9953728336804654,
"metro": "Boston",
"target": 0.9188205885591435,
"buyerRel": 0.09099506842714034,
"targetRel": 0.014442823305818475
},
{
"lat": 40.7128,
"lon": -74.006,
"buyer": 0.9990561006345081,
"metro": "New York",
"target": 0.9129018830328024,
"buyerRel": 0.09629061642407455,
"targetRel": 0.01013639882236883
},
{
"lat": 34.0522,
"lon": -118.2437,
"buyer": 0.9960033891691644,
"metro": "Los Angeles",
"target": 0.9631190338445053,
"buyerRel": 0.04132521496009778,
"targetRel": 0.008440859635438613
},
{
"lat": 42.3314,
"lon": -83.0458,
"buyer": 0.9981594357241557,
"metro": "Detroit",
"target": 0.8818808899218126,
"buyerRel": 0.12420126477261029,
"targetRel": 0.007922718970267195
},
{
"lat": 37.3382,
"lon": -121.8863,
"buyer": 0.997238782902343,
"metro": "San Jose",
"target": 0.9366493582244878,
"buyerRel": 0.06532603448814989,
"targetRel": 0.004736609810294667
}
],
"correlation": -0.1972981713994722,
"strongholds": [
{
"lat": 38.2527,
"lon": -85.7585,
"buyer": 0.99547873641209,
"metro": "Louisville",
"target": 0.8159482994584708,
"buyerRel": 0.19658633967548422,
"targetRel": 0.01705590272186508
},
{
"lat": 39.7684,
"lon": -86.1581,
"buyer": 0.9969276995199778,
"metro": "Indianapolis",
"target": 0.8684722744972272,
"buyerRel": 0.1567900709822675,
"targetRel": 0.028334645959516847
},
{
"lat": 39.1031,
"lon": -84.512,
"buyer": 0.9971305139412303,
"metro": "Cincinnati",
"target": 0.8436633165855217,
"buyerRel": 0.16689163123301687,
"targetRel": 0.013424433877308295
}
],
"whiteSpaceCount": 9,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.5454106162909474,
"correlation": 0.09082123258189484
}
},
{
"id": "t4-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": -0.00874109750734764,
"value": 0.49854315041544206,
"priorSd": 0.0006162383282556256,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": -0.17452554040223545,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": -0.1747003623523824
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": 0.24859334489178028,
"value": 0.5414322241486301
}
},
{
"id": "t4-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Intelligentsia Coffee",
"data": {
"name": "Intelligentsia Coffee",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "Starbucks",
"score": 1
}
],
"ownership": "unknown",
"keyMarkets": [
"United States"
],
"popularity": 0.8675475920055602,
"screenRank": 9,
"foundedYear": 1995,
"priceRangeUsd": [
18,
35
],
"ultimateParent": null,
"forwardAffinity": 0.6618156063499746,
"competitorBrands": [
"Stumptown Coffee Roasters",
"Blue Bottle Coffee",
"Counter Culture Coffee",
"Verve Coffee Roasters"
],
"sharedCategories": [],
"knownPartnerships": [],
"marketPositioning": "Premium, craft-focused specialty coffee brand targeting discerning consumers who value direct trade ethics and superior roast quality."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t4-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 51.97240819815951,
"points": {
"m1": 19.854468190499237,
"m2": 1.916630855178341,
"m3": 12.337770771150973,
"m4": 8.8645977341739,
"m5": 4.013509143002639,
"m6": 4.985431504154421
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 53.69256546952215
}
}
]