Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Los Angeles Dodgers → target #6 of 8

Supreme

A premium streetwear brand leveraging scarcity and exclusivity to maintain a high-fashion cachet within the youth market.

Founded 1994 · Parent: VF Corporation · Competes with Stüssy, Palace Skateboards, A Bathing Ape, Kith · Partnerships: Louis Vuitton, Nike, The North Face

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
63.2F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 63.2 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.77
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.18
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.85
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.57
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.46
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.50
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3527.0
Taste-profile overlap0.101.8
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.0
Demographic alignment0.105.7
Geographic footprint0.209.2
Momentum0.052.5
F63.2

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Los Angeles Dodgers (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Supreme’s audience embraces them.

Music0.91
Embraced: Meek Mill, Jay Rock, ScHoolboy Q · Least shared: UGK, E-40, Cam'ron
TV0.89
Embraced: The Righteous Gemstones, Ballers, Men of a Certain Age · Least shared: Arrested Development, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Running Wilde
Film0.76
Embraced: Coach Carter, Creed, More Than a Game · Least shared: Major League II, Draft Day, 42
Podcasts0.84
Embraced: The Church of What's Happening Now: The New Testament, I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST, What's Up Fool? Podcast · Least shared: Anything Better?, The YoYoYo Podcast w/Martin & Hooter, Tom Segura En Español

Taste profile overlap

16 of 84 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hoprapelectronicfriendshiprockfriendrhythm & bluestrap
Buyer only

American, Tortillas, mexican american, family relationships, los angeles california

Supreme only

Omakase, chinese drama, live action adaptation, japanese drama, based on novel

Audience shape

Los Angeles Dodgers (buyer) Supreme
-0.70-0.350.00+0.35+0.70≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.01 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Supreme strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Minneapolis, Raleigh, Columbus, Richmond, Hartford, New Orleans, Louisville, Baltimore

Shared strongholds

Albuquerque, Tucson, Anchorage, Portland

Bull vs bear

2 of 10 claims survived the judge; 8 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Cross-domain agreement is strong: the shared music artists (Meek Mill, Jay Rock, ScHoolboy Q) carry high aggregate affinity, and the music domain score of 0.91 is above its shortlist average, indicating the audience's taste signals line up across music and TV.

    t6-m3.domains[0].score = 0.9112t6-m3.domains[0].shared[0].affinity = 0.9535t6-m3.value = 0.8502
  • Geographic footprint shows strongholds where the Dodgers and Supreme audiences both index high, including Albuquerque and Tucson, which gives the partnership concrete regional anchors to activate.

    t6-m5.strongholds[0].buyerRel = 0.09552t6-m5.strongholds[1].buyerRel = 0.09609
  • The audience affinity for the Dodgers and for Supreme is reciprocal and aggregate: the Dodgers' audience over-indexes on Supreme at the same level Supreme's audience over-indexes on the Dodgers, a two-way affinity of 0.77 that sits close to the shortlist average.

    t6-m1.value = 0.7727t6-m1.ratio = 1

    Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.7727 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8058)

  • Taste-profile overlap is shared across the hip hop, rap, trap and R&B genres, and the overlap is concentrated in the top-20 buyer taste tags, which supports a music-led co-brand narrative.

    t6-m2.sharedCount = 16t6-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.65

    Rejected by the judge: cites m2 Taste-profile overlap "sharedCount" = 16 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (21.75)

  • The composite score of 63.2 is close to the shortlist average, with momentum above its shortlist average, meaning the audience affinity is holding steady rather than declining.

    t6-score.F = 63.22t6-m6.z = 0.01315

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 63.2158 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (64.1762)

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Taste-profile overlap is thin: the shared-tag share of the taste profile is 0.1811 against a shortlist average of 0.2621, and 0.65 of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target, versus a shortlist average of 0.475 (lower is worse for overlap, higher missing share means weaker fit).

    TASTE_CLASH
    t6-m2.value = 0.1811t6-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.65

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise TASTE_CLASH

  • The shared taste base is narrow: only 16 shared tags versus a shortlist average of 21.75, while the buyer-only and target-only lists diverge into distinct lifestyle and drama tags, so the audience overlap rests on a small core.

    AUDIENCE_ONE_SIDED
    t6-m2.sharedCount = 16t6-m2.unionCount = 84

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise AUDIENCE_ONE_SIDED

  • Demographic alignment is weak on the buyer side: the largest gap is in the 30 to 34 bucket, where the buyer sits at -0.7 against the target's 0.23, and the cosine similarity of 0.1362 is only modestly above the shortlist average of 0.0258, so the audiences are not closely matched.

    DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH
    t6-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.7t6-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.23t6-m4.cosine = 0.1362

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH

  • Geographic overlap does not line up: the correlation between buyer and target affinity across metros is -0.0836, below the shortlist average of -0.1322 in direction only in sign terms, and nine metros are white space where the target is strong but the buyer is weak, such as Columbus at a buyer affinity of 0.7649 against a target of 0.9530.

    NO_GEO_OVERLAP
    t6-m5.correlation = -0.08364t6-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 9t6-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 9

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise NO_GEO_OVERLAP

  • Momentum is flat rather than rising: the momentum z-score is 0.0132 against a shortlist average of 0.1917, so the audience trend offers little evidence of growth to borrow for a co-brand. The composite F of 63.22 also sits just below the shortlist average of 64.18.

    FADING
    t6-m6.z = 0.01315t6-score.F = 63.22

    Rejected by the judge: bear cannot invent a flag: the code rules did not raise FADING

IC memo

Number check passed: 18 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Supreme: WATCH

Recommendation. Hold Supreme on WATCH. Its composite F of 63.2 falls in the 62 to 67 band, and it has no red flags, which is the rule that set the verdict. It ranks 6 of 8 on the shortlist and sits below the shortlist average, so it merits monitoring rather than advancement.

Where the audiences meet. The strongest validated evidence is cross-domain agreement. The shared music artists Meek Mill, Jay Rock and ScHoolboy Q carry high aggregate affinity, and the music domain scores 0.91, above its shortlist average. Aggregate affinity also concentrates in regional strongholds, notably Albuquerque and Tucson, where both the Dodgers and Supreme audiences index high.

Risks

  • Taste overlap is thin. The audience shares 16 tags across an 84-tag union, and the overlap value of 0.18 is below the shortlist average.
  • Two-way audience affinity of 0.77 is below its shortlist average.
  • Demographic alignment is weak, with a cosine of 0.14. The largest gap is in the 30 to 34 bucket.
  • Geographic correlation is slightly negative (-0.08). Whitespace in 9 metros is an upside to test, not a proven overlap.
  • Momentum is flat through the window ending 2025-10-01.
  • Supreme is part of VF Corporation, so parent-level approval is a gating layer.

Diligence questions

  • Does the 30 to 34 demographic gap point to a product or price-point mismatch?
  • Can VF Corporation approve a co-brand, and what exclusivity terms would apply?
  • Can a regional activation in Albuquerque or Tucson be tested before any national commitment?
  • Does Supreme's scarcity positioning fit a team-licensed product line?
  • Can momentum be re-read on a current window before committing?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok7800 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 461 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 726 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 739 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 740 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 741 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 1017 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok9899 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t6-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.7727085015935597,
   "b": 0.7727085015935597,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.7727085015935596,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "9B8B279C-B777-4293-8121-B8174970B57D",
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "affinity": 0.7727085015935597
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8058428397073507,
   "b": 0.8058428397073507,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8058428397073506
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.1811023622047244,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rhythm_blues",
     "name": "rhythm & blues",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:trap",
     "name": "trap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:american",
     "name": "American",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tortillas",
     "name": "Tortillas",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mexican_american",
     "name": "mexican american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:los_angeles_california",
     "name": "los angeles california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:omakase",
     "name": "Omakase",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:chinese_drama",
     "name": "chinese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:live_action_adaptation",
     "name": "live action adaptation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:japanese_drama",
     "name": "japanese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_novel",
     "name": "based on novel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 84,
   "sharedCount": 16,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.65
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.26208447790247186,
   "sharedCount": 21.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.475
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8502104442136906,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "UGK",
       "affinity": 0.8458655459696001
      },
      {
       "name": "E-40",
       "affinity": 0.8491618169756809
      },
      {
       "name": "Cam'ron",
       "affinity": 0.8493478112952971
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.9111581307872052,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "Meek Mill",
       "affinity": 0.953524423394985
      },
      {
       "name": "Jay Rock",
       "affinity": 0.9522001569127307
      },
      {
       "name": "ScHoolboy Q",
       "affinity": 0.9451700114377217
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Arrested Development",
       "affinity": 0.8549574552583015
      },
      {
       "name": "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia",
       "affinity": 0.8622561000329658
      },
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       "name": "Running Wilde",
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      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.8863725771103454,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "The Righteous Gemstones",
       "affinity": 0.9243397636403059
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      },
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       "name": "Men of a Certain Age",
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      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Major League II",
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      },
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      },
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       "name": "42",
       "affinity": 0.7270930308179046
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
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     "shared": [
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     ],
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    {
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       "affinity": 0.800799585109407
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       "affinity": 0.8027849861596902
      },
      {
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       "affinity": 0.8140557873424826
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8445998685233878,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Church of What's Happening Now: The New Testament",
       "affinity": 0.8825924501071436
      },
      {
       "name": "I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST",
       "affinity": 0.8791146667868431
      },
      {
       "name": "What's Up Fool? Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8716857194667736
      }
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[1].score": 0.8836269856142132,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8086589764417401,
   "domains[3].score": 0.804967040700262
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.21,
    "female": -0.21,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": -0.53,
    "45_to_54": 0.22,
    "55_and_older": 0.33,
    "24_and_younger": 0.36
   },
   "value": 0.5681194157515412,
   "cosine": 0.13623883150308252,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.39,
    "female": -0.39,
    "25_to_29": 0.08,
    "30_to_34": 0.23,
    "35_to_44": -0.66,
    "45_to_54": -0.47000000000000003,
    "55_and_older": -0.59,
    "24_and_younger": 0.37
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
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    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": 0.23
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5129090961869054,
   "cosine": 0.02581819237381071
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.4581805226792658,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
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     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.9645150837501468,
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    {
     "lat": 35.7796,
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    {
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    {
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     "targetRel": 0.07497453637138463
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.7658,
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     "metro": "Hartford",
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     "targetRel": 0.07486803485725413
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
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     "metro": "New Orleans",
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     "targetRel": 0.07374379191774061
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.8065839559632366,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9329259499082655,
     "buyerRel": -0.05332035817189362,
     "targetRel": 0.07302163577313525
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.2904,
     "lon": -76.6122,
     "buyer": 0.8511852724968442,
     "metro": "Baltimore",
     "target": 0.9874529610641741,
     "buyerRel": -0.06503757303932489,
     "targetRel": 0.07123011552800507
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.0836389546414684,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.9706899894380029,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9644209413778402,
     "buyerRel": 0.09551623700885659,
     "targetRel": 0.08924718894869388
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.9663896768709499,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.954674387121302,
     "buyerRel": 0.09608621357675451,
     "targetRel": 0.08437092382710665
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.8499582220228651,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.914962372821318,
     "buyerRel": 0.047812276744295,
     "targetRel": 0.1128164275427479
    },
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.9398023648759333,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.9761736445368259,
     "buyerRel": 0.043643888424171884,
     "targetRel": 0.08001516808506448
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 9,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.43391156033354505,
   "correlation": -0.13217687933290995
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.013151852484016846,
   "value": 0.5021919754140028,
   "priorSd": 0.0004223393061461323,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.23026282478592353,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.2299997877362432
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  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.19174600813212095,
   "value": 0.5319576680220202
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Supreme",
  "data": {
   "name": "Supreme",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Japan",
    "Europe"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9989320404807513,
   "screenRank": 6,
   "foundedYear": 1994,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    40,
    500
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "VF Corporation",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.7727085015935597,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Stüssy",
    "Palace Skateboards",
    "A Bathing Ape",
    "Kith",
    "Off-White"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Louis Vuitton",
    "Nike",
    "The North Face",
    "Comme Des Garçons",
    "Levi's"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "A premium streetwear brand leveraging scarcity and exclusivity to maintain a high-fashion cachet within the youth market."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 63.21579455026638,
   "points": {
    "m1": 27.044797555774586,
    "m2": 1.811023622047244,
    "m3": 17.00420888427381,
    "m4": 5.681194157515412,
    "m5": 9.163610453585315,
    "m6": 2.510959877070014
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   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.17616394455051
  }
 }
]