Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Los Angeles Dodgers → target #3 of 8

New Era Cap

The definitive, authentic market leader in licensed sports headwear that transitions seamlessly from the playing field to daily streetwear.

Founded 1920 · Competes with Mitchell & Ness, Fanatics, '47, Under Armour · Partnerships: MLB, NFL, NBA

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
65.9F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 65.9 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.85
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.36
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.83
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.52
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.40
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.52
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3529.9
Taste-profile overlap0.103.6
Cross-domain agreement0.2016.7
Demographic alignment0.105.2
Geographic footprint0.207.9
Momentum0.052.6
F65.9

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Los Angeles Dodgers (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly New Era Cap’s audience embraces them.

Music0.81
Embraced: The Notorious B.I.G., Problem, Cam'ron · Least shared: Berner, Nipsey Hussle, 2 Chainz
TV0.90
Embraced: Ballers, Brockmire, Eastbound & Down · Least shared: Arrested Development, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Running Wilde
Film0.84
Embraced: Creed, Coach Carter, More Than a Game · Least shared: Rudy, The Pistol: The Birth of a Legend, Hoosiers
Podcasts0.78
Embraced: I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST, Anything Better?, The Pete and Sebastian Show · Least shared: Riffin With Griffin, George Perez Stories, Enchilada Casserole

Taste profile overlap

26 of 74 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hoprapelectronicafrican americanfriendfamily relationshipsamerican footballlos angeles california
Buyer only

Tortillas, mexican american, European, latino, female protagonist

New Era Cap only

Stadium, Veal Parmesan, car, football, Reggaeton

Audience shape

Los Angeles Dodgers (buyer) New Era Cap
-0.73-0.360.00+0.36+0.73≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.13 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: New Era Cap strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Buffalo, New York, Chicago, Atlanta

Shared strongholds

Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento, San Jose

Bull vs bear

9 of 10 claims survived the judge; 1 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Two-way audience affinity is strong: the Dodgers audience scores New Era Cap at 0.8545 and the reverse holds equally, both above the shortlist average of 0.8058, with a symmetric ratio of 1.

    t2-m1.value = 0.8545t2-m1.ratio = 1

  • Composite fit of 65.89 sits above the shortlist average of 64.18, and the Dodgers are New Era's top profile driver with a score of 1.

    t2-score.F = 65.89t2-profile.drivers[0].score = 1

  • Cross-domain agreement is high in TV, where the aggregate audience affinity for shared shows such as Ballers reaches 0.9816 and the TV domain score of 0.9007 exceeds its shortlist benchmark of 0.8837.

    t2-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9007t2-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.9816

  • Film and podcast affinities also clear their shortlist benchmarks: the film domain score is 0.8429 versus 0.8087 and the Creed affinity is 0.9220, supporting a sports-storytelling creative platform.

    t2-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8429t2-m3.domains[2].shared[0].affinity = 0.922

  • Momentum is positive at 0.5221, and the buyer's Top-20 missing-share is 0.35, below the shortlist average of 0.475, meaning fewer of the buyer's top audience tags are absent from New Era's profile.

    t2-m6.value = 0.5221t2-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35

    Rejected by the judge: cites m6 Momentum "value" = 0.5221 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.532)

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Aggregate momentum is soft: the audience momentum z-score sits at 0.133, below the shortlist average of 0.192, and the normalised momentum value of 0.522 is also under the 0.532 average. The affinity signal is not clearly accelerating.

    t2-m6.z = 0.1326t2-m6.value = 0.5221

  • Geographic alignment is weaker than the cohort. The correlation between buyer and target metro affinities is -0.208, below the shortlist average of -0.132, and the footprint value of 0.396 trails the 0.434 average. Diligence should test whether the overlap holds outside the top metros.

    t2-m5.correlation = -0.2084t2-m5.value = 0.3958

  • Music is the weakest cross-domain link. The music domain score of 0.809 is well below the shortlist average of 0.879, so the shared artist affinity may not carry the co-brand story the way the TV and film domains do.

    t2-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8086

  • Podcast affinity is also below the cohort. The podcast domain score of 0.779 sits under the 0.805 shortlist average, so the audience overlap in that channel is thinner than the headline cross-domain figure suggests.

    t2-m3.domains[3].score = 0.7791

  • The overall cross-domain agreement of 0.833 is slightly under the 0.844 shortlist average. Taken together with the weaker music and podcast domains, the cross-domain case rests more on TV and film than on the full taste graph.

    t2-m3.value = 0.8328

IC memo

Number check passed: 25 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

New Era Cap: WATCH

Recommendation. Verdict is WATCH under the composite rule: F 65.9 falls in the 62 to 67 band and the code checks raised no red flags. The fit is real but not yet proven for a co-brand. Momentum, geography, and the music and podcast channels all trail the shortlist, so advance only with diligence.

Where the audiences meet

  • Two-way audience affinity is strong at 0.85, with the reverse holding equally (ratio 1). Both sit above the shortlist average of 0.81.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers is New Era Cap's top profile driver, with a score of 1.
  • TV is the strongest cross-domain channel: the domain score is 0.90 against a benchmark of 0.88. Ballers shows an aggregate affinity of 0.98.
  • Film clears its benchmark (0.84 versus 0.81), with Creed at 0.92. This supports a sports-storytelling creative platform.

Risks

  • Momentum is soft: the z-score is 0.13 against a shortlist average of 0.19. The affinity signal is not clearly accelerating.
  • Geographic alignment trails the cohort. The buyer-target metro correlation is -0.21 against -0.13, and the footprint value is 0.40 against 0.43.
  • Music (0.81 versus 0.88) and podcasts (0.78 versus 0.81) are below benchmark. Overall cross-domain agreement is 0.83 against 0.84, so the case rests mainly on TV and film.
  • Red flags: none.

Diligence questions

  • Does the audience overlap hold outside the top metros, given the weak geographic correlation?
  • Is there evidence that affinity is strengthening over time, or is the current level flat?
  • Can the shared artist affinity in music support a co-brand narrative, or should the deal lead with TV and film?
  • Does the podcast channel add reach, or is it a thin secondary channel?
  • What would a co-branded pilot built around TV and film content show before a full commitment?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok7800 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 461 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 726 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 739 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 740 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 741 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 1017 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok6409 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t2-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8545459731464383,
   "b": 0.8545459731464383,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8545459731464383,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "9B8B279C-B777-4293-8121-B8174970B57D",
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "affinity": 0.8545459731464383
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8058428397073507,
   "b": 0.8058428397073507,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8058428397073506
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.36217948717948717,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
     "name": "african american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:los_angeles_california",
     "name": "los angeles california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tortillas",
     "name": "Tortillas",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mexican_american",
     "name": "mexican american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:european",
     "name": "European",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:latino",
     "name": "latino",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
     "name": "female protagonist",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:stadium",
     "name": "Stadium",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:veal_parmesan",
     "name": "Veal Parmesan",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:football",
     "name": "football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:reggaeton",
     "name": "Reggaeton",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 74,
   "sharedCount": 26,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.26208447790247186,
   "sharedCount": 21.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.475
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8327897434562456,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Berner",
       "affinity": 0.7887758357702228
      },
      {
       "name": "Nipsey Hussle",
       "affinity": 0.7951040180156043
      },
      {
       "name": "2 Chainz",
       "affinity": 0.7952862229696628
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8085500474305332,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Notorious B.I.G.",
       "affinity": 0.8434961920873667
      },
      {
       "name": "Problem",
       "affinity": 0.838110050546372
      },
      {
       "name": "Cam'ron",
       "affinity": 0.8244390547052439
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Arrested Development",
       "affinity": 0.8626296545623761
      },
      {
       "name": "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia",
       "affinity": 0.8732075134550504
      },
      {
       "name": "Running Wilde",
       "affinity": 0.8774078312382643
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9006889478956094,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ballers",
       "affinity": 0.9816285497758254
      },
      {
       "name": "Brockmire",
       "affinity": 0.9239997346865342
      },
      {
       "name": "Eastbound & Down",
       "affinity": 0.9175369859537635
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Rudy",
       "affinity": 0.802175172221207
      },
      {
       "name": "The Pistol: The Birth of a Legend",
       "affinity": 0.8077485154620593
      },
      {
       "name": "Hoosiers",
       "affinity": 0.807986748804707
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8428648633121136,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Creed",
       "affinity": 0.9219850438759404
      },
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.8719895124814361
      },
      {
       "name": "More Than a Game",
       "affinity": 0.8683217724125536
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Riffin With Griffin",
       "affinity": 0.7437941886854972
      },
      {
       "name": "George Perez Stories",
       "affinity": 0.746446439835072
      },
      {
       "name": "Enchilada Casserole",
       "affinity": 0.7476450509976843
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.7790551151867259,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST",
       "affinity": 0.8482926333696806
      },
      {
       "name": "Anything Better?",
       "affinity": 0.8316525985278301
      },
      {
       "name": "The Pete and Sebastian Show",
       "affinity": 0.8124485829040397
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8441854633559238,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8794888506674802,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8836269856142132,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8086589764417401,
   "domains[3].score": 0.804967040700262
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.21,
    "female": -0.21,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": -0.53,
    "45_to_54": 0.22,
    "55_and_older": 0.33,
    "24_and_younger": 0.36
   },
   "value": 0.517856706400541,
   "cosine": 0.03571341280108201,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.73,
    "female": -0.73,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.06,
    "35_to_44": 0.01,
    "45_to_54": 0.16,
    "55_and_older": -0.6900000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": -0.06
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.33,
    "bucket": "55_and_older",
    "target": -0.6900000000000001
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5129090961869054,
   "cosine": 0.02581819237381071
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.39578544876821603,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 42.8864,
     "lon": -78.8784,
     "buyer": 0.822516777760419,
     "metro": "Buffalo",
     "target": 0.975721542654899,
     "buyerRel": -0.09553453489772157,
     "targetRel": 0.057670229996758415
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7128,
     "lon": -74.006,
     "buyer": 0.9277621396874952,
     "metro": "New York",
     "target": 0.9559924100522847,
     "buyerRel": -0.03799999557565281,
     "targetRel": -0.009769725210863278
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.8781,
     "lon": -87.6298,
     "buyer": 0.9369385202202375,
     "metro": "Chicago",
     "target": 0.9516857401937747,
     "buyerRel": -0.026636719026512434,
     "targetRel": -0.011889499052975205
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.749,
     "lon": -84.388,
     "buyer": 0.9192048906814938,
     "metro": "Atlanta",
     "target": 0.9266002004855813,
     "buyerRel": -0.028202428204356922,
     "targetRel": -0.020807118400269387
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.20842910246356794,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 33.4484,
     "lon": -112.074,
     "buyer": 0.9871317998785691,
     "metro": "Phoenix",
     "target": 0.9342773754414108,
     "buyerRel": 0.04539765309736399,
     "targetRel": -0.007456771339794388
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.7157,
     "lon": -117.1611,
     "buyer": 0.9991776483152878,
     "metro": "San Diego",
     "target": 0.9549017524261905,
     "buyerRel": 0.03613923205339131,
     "targetRel": -0.008136663835705993
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.5816,
     "lon": -121.4944,
     "buyer": 0.9869141049046211,
     "metro": "Sacramento",
     "target": 0.9191799664395105,
     "buyerRel": 0.04403233985604815,
     "targetRel": -0.023701798609062408
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.3382,
     "lon": -121.8863,
     "buyer": 0.9808622670867017,
     "metro": "San Jose",
     "target": 0.9246961895723682,
     "buyerRel": 0.028624991795488386,
     "targetRel": -0.02754108571884506
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 4,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.43391156033354505,
   "correlation": -0.13217687933290995
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.1325909549243054,
   "value": 0.5220984924873843,
   "priorSd": 0.0021496145950654065,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.12010409849195325,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.11745227939346714
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.19174600813212095,
   "value": 0.5319576680220202
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: New Era Cap",
  "data": {
   "name": "New Era Cap",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Japan",
    "Australia",
    "Europe"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9843026902408842,
   "screenRank": 2,
   "foundedYear": 1920,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    60
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8545459731464383,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Mitchell & Ness",
    "Fanatics",
    "'47",
    "Under Armour"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "MLB",
    "NFL",
    "NBA",
    "NHL",
    "Spike Lee"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "The definitive, authentic market leader in licensed sports headwear that transitions seamlessly from the playing field to daily streetwear."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 65.89146730285177,
   "points": {
    "m1": 29.909109060125342,
    "m2": 3.621794871794872,
    "m3": 16.65579486912491,
    "m4": 5.17856706400541,
    "m5": 7.91570897536432,
    "m6": 2.6104924624369215
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.17616394455051
  }
 }
]