Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Los Angeles Dodgers → target #5 of 8

Vans

Accessible, authentic lifestyle brand for action sports and casual streetwear enthusiasts.

Founded 1966 · Parent: VF Corporation · Competes with Converse, DC Shoes, Nike SB, Globe · Partnerships: Supreme, Thrasher, Disney

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
63.5F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 63.5 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.76
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.19
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.81
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.55
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.53
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.50
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3526.7
Taste-profile overlap0.101.9
Cross-domain agreement0.2016.3
Demographic alignment0.105.5
Geographic footprint0.2010.6
Momentum0.052.5
F63.5

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Los Angeles Dodgers (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Vans’s audience embraces them.

Music0.78
Embraced: ScHoolboy Q, The Notorious B.I.G., YG · Least shared: Swishahouse, Berner, UGK
TV0.89
Embraced: Workaholics, Trailer Park Boys, Reno 911! · Least shared: Arrested Development, Running Wilde, A.P. Bio
Film0.79
Embraced: Coach Carter, More Than a Game, Rebound: The Legend of Earl 'The Goat' Manigault · Least shared: Draft Day, 42, Major League II
Podcasts0.81
Embraced: Ten Minute Podcast, Monday Morning Podcast, TigerBelly · Least shared: Anything Better?, The YoYoYo Podcast w/Martin & Hooter, Enchilada Casserole

Taste profile overlap

17 of 83 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hopfriendshiprockfriendrapfemale protagonistelectronicteenage boy
Buyer only

American, Tortillas, mexican american, los angeles california, african american

Vans only

Romance, Salmon A La Plancha, love, chinese drama, based on novel

Audience shape

Los Angeles Dodgers (buyer) Vans
-0.70-0.350.00+0.35+0.70≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.02 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Vans strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Minneapolis, Louisville, Columbus, Cincinnati, Raleigh, St. Louis

Shared strongholds

Boise, Anchorage, Tucson, Albuquerque, Oklahoma City

Bull vs bear

2 of 10 claims survived the judge; 8 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Demographic alignment is above the shortlist average, with a value of 0.548 versus 0.513, and the 24-and-younger bucket shows a 0.36 buyer affinity alongside a 0.51 target affinity, supporting a younger shared audience.

    t7-m4.value = 0.5478t7-m4.buyer.24_and_younger = 0.36

  • Geographic footprint shows six metros where the target audience is strong and the buyer is weaker, a whitespace opportunity to extend reach; the Vans-side strongholds are also very high, with Albuquerque at 0.988 for the target.

    t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 6t7-m5.strongholds[3].target = 0.9882

  • The two-way audience affinity between the Dodgers and Vans is mutual and equal at 0.762, indicating the Dodgers' audience over-indexes on Vans to the same degree Vans' audience over-indexes on the Dodgers.

    t7-m1.value = 0.7623t7-m1.ratio = 1

    Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.7623 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8058)

  • Cross-domain agreement is strong: the aggregate audience affinity across music, TV, film and podcasts scores 0.814, and the TV domain score of 0.889 sits above its shortlist average, pointing to shared taste beyond a single category.

    t7-m3.value = 0.8142t7-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8886

    Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "value" = 0.8142 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8442)

  • Momentum is positive and above the shortlist average at a z-score of 0.016 against a shortlist average of 0.192, so the aggregate affinity trend is not weakening even though the level is flat.

    t7-m6.value = 0.5027t7-m6.z = 0.01633

    Rejected by the judge: cites m6 Momentum "value" = 0.5027 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.532)

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • The composite score sits just below the shortlist average, so this pairing does not clear the committee's usual bar on the blended signal.

    t7-score.data.F = 63.46

    Rejected by the judge: "data.F" does not resolve to a number in t7-score

  • Two-way audience affinity between the Dodgers and Vans is 0.762, under the shortlist average of 0.806. The overlap is real but weaker than comparable pairings, and it is an aggregate affinity, not evidence of co-brand demand.

    t7-m1.data.value = 0.7623

    Rejected by the judge: "data.value" does not resolve to a number in t7-m1

  • Taste-profile overlap is thin: 17 shared tags against a shortlist average of about 22, and the value is 0.190 versus 0.262 on average. Sixty percent of the Dodgers' top-20 audience tags are missing from the Vans profile, well above the 0.475 shortlist average, so the aggregate audience looks only partly shared.

    t7-m2.data.sharedCount = 17t7-m2.data.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.6

    Rejected by the judge: "data.sharedCount" does not resolve to a number in t7-m2

  • Momentum is flat. The z-score is 0.016 against a shortlist average of 0.192, and the value is 0.503 versus 0.532, so the aggregate audience trend gives no timing reason to move now.

    t7-m6.data.z = 0.01633t7-m6.data.value = 0.5027

    Rejected by the judge: "data.z" does not resolve to a number in t7-m6

  • Demographics diverge at the edges. The Vans audience under-indexes heavily on 35-44 (-0.64) and 55 and older (-0.62), while the Dodgers' 55+ affinity is positive (0.33). The cross-domain film affinity (0.785) is also below its shortlist average of 0.809, so the shared-taste story is weakest in film.

    t7-m4.data.target.35_to_44 = -0.64t7-m4.data.target.55_and_older = -0.62t7-m3.data.domains[2].score = 0.7854

    Rejected by the judge: "data.target.35_to_44" does not resolve to a number in t7-m4

IC memo

Number check passed: 24 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Vans: WATCH

Recommendation. Vans scores a composite F of 63.5, which falls in the 62 to 67 WATCH band, and no red flags were raised. It ranks 5 of 8 and sits below the shortlist average of 64.2, so it merits further review rather than advancement.

Where the audiences meet

  • Cross-domain agreement is 0.81. Shared affinities cluster in music (ScHoolboy Q, The Notorious B.I.G.), TV (Workaholics, Trailer Park Boys), film (Coach Carter) and podcasts (Ten Minute Podcast).
  • Demographic alignment is 0.55, above the shortlist average of 0.51. The 24-and-younger bucket shows a 0.36 buyer affinity and a 0.51 target affinity, which points to a shared younger audience.
  • Geographic whitespace is present in six metros where the target audience is strong and the buyer is weaker. Albuquerque is a Vans-side stronghold at 0.988 for the target.

Risks

  • Taste-profile overlap is 0.19, below the shortlist average of 0.26. Shared tags are mostly music and media keywords, and the buyer's top-20 tags are largely absent from the Vans profile.
  • The 55-and-older bucket is the widest gap: 0.33 for the buyer against -0.62 for Vans.
  • Momentum is 0.02 on the z-score, against a shortlist average of 0.19. Two-way affinity is 0.76, against 0.81 for the shortlist.
  • Vans is part of VF Corporation, which adds an approval layer.

Diligence questions

  • Does the 24-and-younger overlap hold in a campaign-level sample, or is it driven by a narrow segment?
  • Can a co-brand product address the taste-profile gap without diluting the Dodgers identity?
  • What is the licensing path through VF Corporation, and how long would approval take?
  • Are rights available in the six whitespace metros?
  • What is the momentum trend behind the low z-score, and is it stable?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok7800 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 461 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 462 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 726 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 739 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 740 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 741 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 1017 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok10712 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t7-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.762283886518628,
   "b": 0.762283886518628,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.762283886518628,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "9B8B279C-B777-4293-8121-B8174970B57D",
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "affinity": 0.762283886518628
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "b": 0.8058428397073507,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8058428397073506
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.19047619047619047,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
     "name": "female protagonist",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenage_boy",
     "name": "teenage boy",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:american",
     "name": "American",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tortillas",
     "name": "Tortillas",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mexican_american",
     "name": "mexican american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:los_angeles_california",
     "name": "los angeles california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
     "name": "african american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:romance",
     "name": "Romance",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:salmon_a_la_plancha",
     "name": "Salmon A La Plancha",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:love",
     "name": "love",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:chinese_drama",
     "name": "chinese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_novel",
     "name": "based on novel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 83,
   "sharedCount": 17,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.6
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "sharedCount": 21.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.475
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.814169380463704,
   "domains": [
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     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
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       "affinity": 0.7326985469507507
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      },
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       "affinity": 0.8102011535874057
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      }
     ],
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     "returned": 25
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    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
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     "score": 0.8885785884142714,
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    {
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      {
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       "name": "TigerBelly",
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   "domains[2].score": 0.8086589764417401,
   "domains[3].score": 0.804967040700262
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
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    "female": -0.21,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": -0.53,
    "45_to_54": 0.22,
    "55_and_older": 0.33,
    "24_and_younger": 0.36
   },
   "value": 0.5478065748854846,
   "cosine": 0.09561314977096919,
   "target": {
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    "female": -0.03,
    "25_to_29": 0.1,
    "30_to_34": 0.15,
    "35_to_44": -0.64,
    "45_to_54": -0.45,
    "55_and_older": -0.62,
    "24_and_younger": 0.51
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
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    "bucket": "55_and_older",
    "target": -0.62
   }
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "cosine": 0.02581819237381071
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 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.5299363374508927,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
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     "target": 0.9875444425124503,
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    {
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    {
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    {
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     "lon": -116.2023,
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     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.9682200595614554,
     "buyerRel": 0.08757333791546484,
     "targetRel": 0.14695743714948972
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.8499582220228651,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.9657211056995523,
     "buyerRel": 0.047812276744295,
     "targetRel": 0.1635751604209822
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.9663896768709499,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.9851832804779406,
     "buyerRel": 0.09608621357675451,
     "targetRel": 0.11487981718374518
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.9706899894380029,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9882015531078187,
     "buyerRel": 0.09551623700885659,
     "targetRel": 0.11302780067867235
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.9157176737693803,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9861224003291553,
     "buyerRel": 0.032889662529978936,
     "targetRel": 0.10329438908975397
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 6,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.43391156033354505,
   "correlation": -0.13217687933290995
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.016329731190756203,
   "value": 0.502721621865126,
   "priorSd": 0.000412322309596877,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.1811742623720276,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.18084766774821248
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.19174600813212095,
   "value": 0.5319576680220202
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Vans",
  "data": {
   "name": "Vans",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "United Kingdom",
    "Canada",
    "Germany",
    "Japan"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9996779169703853,
   "screenRank": 7,
   "foundedYear": 1966,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    50,
    120
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "VF Corporation",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.762283886518628,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Converse",
    "DC Shoes",
    "Nike SB",
    "Globe",
    "Emerica"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Supreme",
    "Thrasher",
    "Disney",
    "National Geographic",
    "Karl Lagerfeld"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Accessible, authentic lifestyle brand for action sports and casual streetwear enthusiasts."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 63.45848614938628,
   "points": {
    "m1": 26.679936028151978,
    "m2": 1.9047619047619047,
    "m3": 16.28338760927408,
    "m4": 5.478065748854846,
    "m5": 10.598726749017855,
    "m6": 2.51360810932563
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.17616394455051
  }
 }
]