Simpatico

VC thesis · HOKA → target #2 of 8

Whoop

Premium, data-focused wearable performance coach designed for individuals who demand professional-grade health insights.

Founded 2012 · Competes with Oura, Garmin, Apple Watch · Partnerships: PGA Tour, NFL Players Association

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
70.1F / 100
70% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 70.1 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.91
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.28
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.90
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.69
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.64
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum not measured
n/a
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.
Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for VC thesis, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.2532.4
Taste-profile overlap0.155.9
Cross-domain agreement0.1012.8
Demographic alignment0.109.8
Geographic footprint0.109.1
Momentumnot measured–
F70.1

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are On (0.25), HOKA (0.25), Athletic Brewing Co (0.25), Tracksmith (0.24).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Whoop’s audience embraces them.

Music0.91
Embraced: Zach Bryan, Tyler Childers, Charley Crockett · Least shared: Tom Petty, Mudcrutch, Alabama Shakes
TV0.94
Embraced: American Ninja Warrior, BattleBots, American Gladiators · Least shared: Old Enough!, Making It, Better Late Than Never
Film0.88
Embraced: Free Solo, The Dawn Wall, 14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible · Least shared: The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young, Dirtbag: The Legend of Fred Beckey, This Mountain Life
Podcasts0.86
Embraced: Boundless Life, FoundMyFitness, The Model Health Show · Least shared: Hurdle, I'll Have Another with Lindsey Hein Podcast, Ali on the Run Show

Taste profile overlap

26 of 74 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
indiefolkrockfriendshipfriendelectronicAlternative Rockcountry
Buyer only

Shrimp Tacos, anime animation, british, Steak Tartare, Soup

Whoop only

Documentary, French Fries, Golf course, american football, Golf club

Audience shape

HOKA (buyer) Whoop
-0.78-0.390.00+0.39+0.78≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Whoop strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Birmingham, Nashville, Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa, Houston, Dallas

Shared strongholds

Virginia Beach, Pittsburgh, Richmond, New Orleans

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

IC memo

Number check passed: 10 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written from the ledger template

Whoop: ADVANCE

VC thesis screen for HOKA. Ranked #2 of 8 on composite audience fit. Composite fit F 70.1. Rule: F 70.1 >= 67 and no red flags.

MetricValueCoverage
Two-way audience affinity0.91full
Taste-profile overlap0.28full
Cross-domain agreement0.90full
Demographic alignment0.69full
Geographic footprint0.64full
Momentumn/anot measured

Shared taste. Both audiences over-index on: indie, folk, rock, friendship, friend. Across culture. The buyer audience's favourites this audience embraces most. Music: Zach Bryan, Tyler Childers; TV: American Ninja Warrior, BattleBots; Film: Free Solo, The Dawn Wall; Podcasts: Boundless Life, FoundMyFitness. Footprint white space. Metros where the target's audience over-indexes and the buyer's doesn't: Birmingham, Nashville, Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa.

Red flags. None raised by the code rules.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 29 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok23 of 23 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok23 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok8330 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 12 of 12 entitieslive 145 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingempty0 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 155 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 186 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 196 ms
/v2/trendingok26 trend point(s)live 196 ms
/v2/insightsok4 of 4 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok6920 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t3-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
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   "b": 0.8891848866937895,
   "ratio": 0.9602051641010727,
   "value": 0.9072365515387868,
   "reverse": [
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     "id": "CCE5E494-2690-42BA-9A52-3110AE273676",
     "name": "On",
     "affinity": 0.8994021938572937
    },
    {
     "id": "B7F13D5E-36A8-4AC4-A5A6-E949DED54050",
     "name": "HOKA",
     "affinity": 0.8975832463303153
    },
    {
     "id": "D962C4A9-93FB-433E-B11C-E9BF7029BFE5",
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "affinity": 0.8966207127461793
    },
    {
     "id": "F1545668-5556-4111-8A2E-AC787DD7503A",
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "affinity": 0.8631333938413698
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.9142067566664733,
   "b": 0.8780226767666233,
   "ratio": 0.9604328890241645,
   "value": 0.8957493307746848
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.2769153730595894,
   "shared": [
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     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:shrimp_tacos",
     "name": "Shrimp Tacos",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:anime_animation",
     "name": "anime animation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:british",
     "name": "british",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:steak_tartare",
     "name": "Steak Tartare",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:soup",
     "name": "Soup",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
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     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
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     "name": "French Fries",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:golf_course",
     "name": "Golf course",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:golf_club",
     "name": "Golf club",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 74,
   "sharedCount": 26,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "sharedCount": 23.857142857142858,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41428571428571426
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8981596499915091,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Tom Petty",
       "affinity": 0.8571313479969637
      },
      {
       "name": "Mudcrutch",
       "affinity": 0.8654724405184473
      },
      {
       "name": "Alabama Shakes",
       "affinity": 0.8709439728284102
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     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.9122465769376347,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "Zach Bryan",
       "affinity": 0.9609362183165613
      },
      {
       "name": "Tyler Childers",
       "affinity": 0.9566507723123016
      },
      {
       "name": "Charley Crockett",
       "affinity": 0.9387361675071961
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.9179290879505696
      },
      {
       "name": "Making It",
       "affinity": 0.9189170294079053
      },
      {
       "name": "Better Late Than Never",
       "affinity": 0.9216645688452304
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     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9366188852317971,
     "shared": [
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      },
      {
       "name": "BattleBots",
       "affinity": 0.9475635920685506
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      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
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      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
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    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "The Barkley Marathons: The Race That Eats Its Young",
       "affinity": 0.8541052680665876
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       "name": "Dirtbag: The Legend of Fred Beckey",
       "affinity": 0.8586690959092484
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    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "Hurdle",
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     "label": "Podcasts",
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 {
  "id": "t3-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
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    "female": -0.33,
    "25_to_29": -0.34,
    "30_to_34": -0.3025,
    "35_to_44": 0.15500000000000003,
    "45_to_54": 0.455,
    "55_and_older": -0.78,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05499999999999999
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   "cosine": 0.37607569041834843,
   "target": {
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    "female": -0.34,
    "25_to_29": -0.15,
    "30_to_34": 0.12,
    "35_to_44": 0.43,
    "45_to_54": -0.66,
    "55_and_older": -0.62,
    "24_and_younger": -0.14
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
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    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.66
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 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
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    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
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    {
     "lat": 33.749,
     "lon": -84.388,
     "buyer": 0.846706920331274,
     "metro": "Atlanta",
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     "targetRel": 0.09978543600173129
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    {
     "lat": 35.2271,
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     "metro": "Charlotte",
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    {
     "lat": 27.9506,
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     "metro": "Tampa",
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     "targetRel": 0.09626673086447057
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    {
     "lat": 29.7604,
     "lon": -95.3698,
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     "metro": "Houston",
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     "targetRel": 0.09041820925681088
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    {
     "lat": 32.7767,
     "lon": -96.797,
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     "metro": "Dallas",
     "target": 0.9443031568670733,
     "buyerRel": 0.018452499506307785,
     "targetRel": 0.09020978118869405
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   ],
   "correlation": 0.2794692883952668,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 36.8529,
     "lon": -75.978,
     "buyer": 0.8930670085141974,
     "metro": "Virginia Beach",
     "target": 0.9265121713100363,
     "buyerRel": 0.0700605585580869,
     "targetRel": 0.10350572135392577
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.4406,
     "lon": -79.9959,
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     "metro": "Pittsburgh",
     "target": 0.9138569085500217,
     "buyerRel": 0.06551784110354708,
     "targetRel": 0.10267183993966311
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.5407,
     "lon": -77.436,
     "buyer": 0.8487140815258525,
     "metro": "Richmond",
     "target": 0.8921411037798274,
     "buyerRel": 0.061913422166431364,
     "targetRel": 0.10534044442040624
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
     "lon": -90.0715,
     "buyer": 0.793145078759221,
     "metro": "New Orleans",
     "target": 0.8357384082376305,
     "buyerRel": 0.04572248364468401,
     "targetRel": 0.08831581312309345
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   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 7,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.460515719992653,
   "correlation": -0.07896856001469411
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 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Whoop",
  "data": {
   "name": "Whoop",
   "drivers": [
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     "name": "On",
     "score": 0.25287266105069967
    },
    {
     "name": "HOKA",
     "score": 0.2523612523565692
    },
    {
     "name": "Athletic Brewing Co",
     "score": 0.2520906299026398
    },
    {
     "name": "Tracksmith",
     "score": 0.2426754566900913
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   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "United Kingdom",
    "Canada"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.946008713193538,
   "screenRank": 5,
   "foundedYear": 2012,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
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    399
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9260363513314666,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Oura",
    "Garmin",
    "Apple Watch"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "PGA Tour",
    "NFL Players Association"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium, data-focused wearable performance coach designed for individuals who demand professional-grade health insights."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 70.13423682620956,
   "points": {
    "m1": 32.40130541209953,
    "m2": 5.933900851276917,
    "m3": 12.830852142735845,
    "m4": 9.829112074416775,
    "m5": 9.139066345680478,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.7
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 66.89621770116648,
   "coverage": 0.68125
  }
 }
]