M&A bolt-on · Pepsi → target #10 of 10

Dave's Killer Bread

Premium organic bread brand focused on whole-grain nutrition and hearty textures for health-conscious consumers.

Founded 2005 · Parent: Flowers Foods · Competes with Silver Hills Sprouted Bakery, Nature's Own, Arnold, Oroweat

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Pass

44.5F / 100

90% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 44.5 < 62 and unmitigated red flag(s): DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH.

DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH: m4 < 0.35 (observed m4 0.13)

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity

0.67

Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.

m2 Taste-profile overlap

0.19

Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.

m3 Cross-domain agreement

0.80

How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.

m4 Demographic alignment

0.13

Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.

m5 Geographic footprint

0.23

Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.

m6 Momentum not measured

n/a

Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for M&A bolt-on, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

Metric	Weight	Points
Two-way audience affinity	0.30	22.4
Taste-profile overlap	0.20	4.2
Cross-domain agreement	0.15	13.3
Demographic alignment	0.15	2.1
Geographic footprint	0.10	2.6
Momentum	not measured	–
F		44.5

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Quaker Oats Company (0.26), Gatorade (0.26), Doritos (0.25), Pepsi (0.22).

Shared catalogue categories (Qloo compare): Food & Beverage, Food, Breakfast.

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Dave's Killer Bread’s audience embraces them.

Music0.74

Embraced: Juanes, Sin Bandera, Ricky Martin · Least shared: Farruko, Nicky Jam, Yandel

TV0.89

Embraced: Blown Away, Old Enough!, Lego Masters Australia · Least shared: Saved by the Bell, The Next Step, Doogie Kamealoha, M.D.

Film0.76

Embraced: Ralph Breaks the Internet, Toy Story 4, Incredibles 2 · Least shared: Spider-Man: Homecoming, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw

Podcasts0.81

Embraced: The Chalene Show | Diet, Fitness & Life Balance, Motivation with Brendon Burchard, Trust and Believe with Shaun T · Least shared: First Take, Talk Is Jericho, The Steve Austin Show

Taste profile overlap

16 of 84 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on

rockfemale protagonistfriendshipteenage girlfamily relationshipsfriendindiecountry

Buyer only

Pulpo A La Brasa, Seared Diver Scallops, Mole, electronic, pop

Dave's Killer Bread only

Food, Vegan, Margherita Pizza, new york city, Salad

Audience shape

Pepsi (buyer) Dave's Killer Bread

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Dave's Killer Bread strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros

White space

Portland, Anchorage, Tucson, Seattle, Sacramento, New Orleans, Albuquerque, San Jose

Shared strongholds

Philadelphia

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

Provenance: 31 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

Endpoint	Status	Result	Source
/v2/insights	ok	29 of 29 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	29 profile(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	50 taste tag(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 recommended tv_show(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 recommended artist(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 recommended podcast(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 recommended movie(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	demographics for 14 of 14 entities	cache
/v2/insights	ok	7265 heatmap cell(s) in United States	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	4 of 4 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	50 taste tag(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 of 25 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 of 25 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 of 25 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 of 25 candidates scored	cache
/v2/analysis/compare	ok	3 shared catalogue tag(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	5076 heatmap cell(s) in United States	cache

Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)

[
 {
  "id": "t4-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": [
    {
     "m4": 0.12598803859607677,
     "flag": "DEMOGRAPHIC_MISMATCH",
     "rule": "m4 < 0.35"
    }
   ]
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.6836755041898288,
   "b": 0.6589413908663091,
   "ratio": 0.9638218523671838,
   "value": 0.6710806176965833,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "099E174E-1FEC-4AD9-80F2-92C2E6CBD6ED",
     "name": "Quaker Oats Company",
     "affinity": 0.6958892075283055
    },
    {
     "id": "18316CE7-595D-4469-8FDF-43D1B70021E4",
     "name": "Gatorade",
     "affinity": 0.6908452285031108
    },
    {
     "id": "EA3901B0-A3A5-43F5-AC2A-45C35C400926",
     "name": "Doritos",
     "affinity": 0.6657936876328668
    },
    {
     "id": "957B527A-CF2C-4283-A2FD-3F49741DF5DE",
     "name": "Pepsi",
     "affinity": 0.5832374398009531
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.6954073847687763,
   "b": 0.6694354298272059,
   "ratio": 0.9634521435376324,
   "value": 0.6821611379345072
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.18881118881118877,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
     "name": "female protagonist",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenage_girl",
     "name": "teenage girl",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:pulpo_a_la_brasa",
     "name": "Pulpo A La Brasa",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:seared_diver_scallops",
     "name": "Seared Diver Scallops",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:mole",
     "name": "Mole",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:pop",
     "name": "pop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:vegan",
     "name": "Vegan",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:margherita_pizza",
     "name": "Margherita Pizza",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:new_york_city",
     "name": "new york city",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:salad",
     "name": "Salad",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 84,
   "sharedCount": 16,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.22491966033658706,
   "sharedCount": 20.11111111111111,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41666666666666674
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.798913612723567,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Farruko",
       "affinity": 0.700550228051551
      },
      {
       "name": "Nicky Jam",
       "affinity": 0.7066931262827094
      },
      {
       "name": "Yandel",
       "affinity": 0.7079585852323215
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.7353186306819515,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Juanes",
       "affinity": 0.7728778691425059
      },
      {
       "name": "Sin Bandera",
       "affinity": 0.7629856108421433
      },
      {
       "name": "Ricky Martin",
       "affinity": 0.7606125764790488
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Saved by the Bell",
       "affinity": 0.8527937751846995
      },
      {
       "name": "The Next Step",
       "affinity": 0.8532777091194204
      },
      {
       "name": "Doogie Kamealoha, M.D.",
       "affinity": 0.8594696613981864
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.887726126209024,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Blown Away",
       "affinity": 0.9423388774013116
      },
      {
       "name": "Old Enough!",
       "affinity": 0.9335694344052182
      },
      {
       "name": "Lego Masters Australia",
       "affinity": 0.9161067123920617
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Spider-Man: Homecoming",
       "affinity": 0.7327238726795798
      },
      {
       "name": "Ant-Man and the Wasp",
       "affinity": 0.7328711164283882
      },
      {
       "name": "Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw",
       "affinity": 0.7334125468599083
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.7586892168146073,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ralph Breaks the Internet",
       "affinity": 0.8023218557457322
      },
      {
       "name": "Toy Story 4",
       "affinity": 0.8011770837206926
      },
      {
       "name": "Incredibles 2",
       "affinity": 0.7871083177813011
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "First Take",
       "affinity": 0.6599106088034465
      },
      {
       "name": "Talk Is Jericho",
       "affinity": 0.6899747872235186
      },
      {
       "name": "The Steve Austin Show",
       "affinity": 0.6976544954611076
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8139204771886857,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Chalene Show | Diet, Fitness & Life Balance",
       "affinity": 0.9441799255650385
      },
      {
       "name": "Motivation with Brendon Burchard",
       "affinity": 0.9048256516156956
      },
      {
       "name": "Trust and Believe with Shaun T",
       "affinity": 0.9007933618201899
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8142200656582131,
   "domains[0].score": 0.7712218159459897,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8930482681153483,
   "domains[2].score": 0.7853466318542113,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8072635467173033
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.11749999999999998,
    "female": -0.11749999999999998,
    "25_to_29": 0.29000000000000004,
    "30_to_34": -0.0675,
    "35_to_44": -0.22000000000000003,
    "45_to_54": -0.475,
    "55_and_older": -0.3825,
    "24_and_younger": 0.19999999999999998
   },
   "value": 0.12598803859607677,
   "cosine": -0.7480239228078465,
   "target": {
    "male": -0.36,
    "female": 0.36,
    "25_to_29": -0.44,
    "30_to_34": 0.15,
    "35_to_44": 0.06,
    "45_to_54": 0.22,
    "55_and_older": 0.15,
    "24_and_younger": -0.18
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.29000000000000004,
    "bucket": "25_to_29",
    "target": -0.44
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5395238058358314,
   "cosine": 0.07904761167166277
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.2302220834306955,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.6370498133412997,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.958188639779138,
     "buyerRel": -0.2010937201444889,
     "targetRel": 0.12004510629334941
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.49558502705752777,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.8199735856900907,
     "buyerRel": -0.25383935528139906,
     "targetRel": 0.07054920335116388
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.6089413566713184,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.8707888555194347,
     "buyerRel": -0.19662717112740113,
     "targetRel": 0.06522032772071518
    },
    {
     "lat": 47.6062,
     "lon": -122.3321,
     "buyer": 0.7106098918205455,
     "metro": "Seattle",
     "target": 0.9244590808890925,
     "buyerRel": -0.1506472528033782,
     "targetRel": 0.06320193626516879
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.5816,
     "lon": -121.4944,
     "buyer": 0.7552310511414703,
     "metro": "Sacramento",
     "target": 0.9143533147074017,
     "buyerRel": -0.10426585332328575,
     "targetRel": 0.05485641024264565
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
     "lon": -90.0715,
     "buyer": 0.6763113954894275,
     "metro": "New Orleans",
     "target": 0.8632905681222465,
     "buyerRel": -0.13326504023948338,
     "targetRel": 0.053714132393335556
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.6157961515121241,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.8405999786992211,
     "buyerRel": -0.17415876261034524,
     "targetRel": 0.050645064576751775
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.3382,
     "lon": -121.8863,
     "buyer": 0.7861348048497334,
     "metro": "San Jose",
     "target": 0.9226567481242496,
     "buyerRel": -0.09248246308402841,
     "targetRel": 0.044039480190487756
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.539555833138609,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 39.9526,
     "lon": -75.1652,
     "buyer": 0.8644685263094293,
     "metro": "Philadelphia",
     "target": 0.9400840874278681,
     "buyerRel": -0.04068836026085332,
     "targetRel": 0.034927200857585494
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 11,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.3788101542840746,
   "correlation": -0.2423796914318507
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Dave's Killer Bread",
  "data": {
   "name": "Dave's Killer Bread",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Quaker Oats Company",
     "score": 0.26401786910571107
    },
    {
     "name": "Gatorade",
     "score": 0.2621042015568554
    },
    {
     "name": "Doritos",
     "score": 0.2525997368132957
    },
    {
     "name": "Pepsi",
     "score": 0.2212781925241378
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.8431964197928498,
   "screenRank": 4,
   "foundedYear": 2005,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    5,
    8
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Flowers Foods",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.6836755041898288,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Silver Hills Sprouted Bakery",
    "Nature's Own",
    "Arnold",
    "Oroweat"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [
    {
     "name": "Food & Beverage",
     "score": 0.7305072539555804
    },
    {
     "name": "Food",
     "score": 0.7303632399004254
    },
    {
     "name": "Breakfast",
     "score": 0.7218318743219123
    }
   ],
   "knownPartnerships": [],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium organic bread brand focused on whole-grain nutrition and hearty textures for health-conscious consumers."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 44.53820879024766,
   "points": {
    "m1": 22.369353923219442,
    "m2": 4.195804195804195,
    "m3": 13.315226878726117,
    "m4": 2.099800643267946,
    "m5": 2.55802314922995,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.9
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 55.38338238220258,
   "coverage": 0.8800000000000001
  }
 }
]