M&A bolt-on · Pepsi → target #7 of 10

LILY's Sweets

Premium sugar-free chocolate brand focused on delivering decadent taste without the glycemic impact of traditional sugar.

Founded 2012 · Parent: The Hershey Company · Competes with ChocZero, Hu Kitchen, Alter Eco, Endangered Species Chocolate

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Pass

52.2F / 100

90% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 52.2 < 62.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity

0.64

Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.

m2 Taste-profile overlap

0.19

Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.

m3 Cross-domain agreement

0.82

How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.

m4 Demographic alignment

0.68

Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.

m5 Geographic footprint

0.15

Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.

m6 Momentum not measured

n/a

Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for M&A bolt-on, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

Metric	Weight	Points
Two-way audience affinity	0.30	21.2
Taste-profile overlap	0.20	4.2
Cross-domain agreement	0.15	13.7
Demographic alignment	0.15	11.4
Geographic footprint	0.10	1.7
Momentum	not measured	–
F		52.2

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Quaker Oats Company (0.27), Doritos (0.25), Gatorade (0.24), Pepsi (0.23).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly LILY's Sweets’s audience embraces them.

Music0.78

Embraced: HA-ASH, Ricky Martin, Reik · Least shared: Anuel AA, J Balvin, Maluma

TV0.91

Embraced: Blown Away, Lego Masters, Lego Masters Australia · Least shared: Saved by the Bell, Step Up: High Water, The L.A. Complex

Film0.80

Embraced: Jumanji: The Next Level, Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker, Spider-Man: Far from Home · Least shared: Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Thor: Ragnarok

Podcasts0.80

Embraced: The Chalene Show | Diet, Fitness & Life Balance, Trust and Believe with Shaun T, Motivation with Brendon Burchard · Least shared: First Take, Talk Is Jericho, The Steve Austin Show

Taste profile overlap

18 of 82 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on

female protagonistteenage girlfamily relationshipsfriendfriendshiprockcountryteenage boy

Buyer only

Pulpo A La Brasa, Seared Diver Scallops, Mole, electronic, Hip Hop

LILY's Sweets only

Calamari, European, Food, worship, Cookbooks

Audience shape

Pepsi (buyer) LILY's Sweets

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: LILY's Sweets strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros

White space

Boise, Anchorage, Seattle, Louisville, Tucson, Oklahoma City, Portland, Sacramento

Shared strongholds

none

Bull vs bear

No debate on this run.

Provenance: 31 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

Endpoint	Status	Result	Source
/v2/insights	ok	29 of 29 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	29 profile(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	50 taste tag(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 recommended tv_show(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 recommended artist(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 recommended podcast(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 recommended movie(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	demographics for 14 of 14 entities	cache
/v2/insights	ok	7265 heatmap cell(s) in United States	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/trending	ok	26 trend point(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 of 25 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 of 25 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	4 of 4 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	50 taste tag(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 of 25 candidates scored	cache
/v2/insights	ok	5035 heatmap cell(s) in United States	cache
/v2/analysis/compare	ok	0 shared catalogue tag(s)	cache
/v2/insights	ok	25 of 25 candidates scored	cache

Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)

[
 {
  "id": "t8-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.6451061144717869,
   "b": 0.6254778127694153,
   "ratio": 0.9695735302114703,
   "value": 0.6351403521373061,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "099E174E-1FEC-4AD9-80F2-92C2E6CBD6ED",
     "name": "Quaker Oats Company",
     "affinity": 0.6867433028310403
    },
    {
     "id": "EA3901B0-A3A5-43F5-AC2A-45C35C400926",
     "name": "Doritos",
     "affinity": 0.6260707527132945
    },
    {
     "id": "18316CE7-595D-4469-8FDF-43D1B70021E4",
     "name": "Gatorade",
     "affinity": 0.6079269059490435
    },
    {
     "id": "957B527A-CF2C-4283-A2FD-3F49741DF5DE",
     "name": "Pepsi",
     "affinity": 0.5811702895842826
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.6954073847687763,
   "b": 0.6694354298272059,
   "ratio": 0.9634521435376324,
   "value": 0.6821611379345072
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.18770377270610156,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
     "name": "female protagonist",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenage_girl",
     "name": "teenage girl",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenage_boy",
     "name": "teenage boy",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:pulpo_a_la_brasa",
     "name": "Pulpo A La Brasa",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:seared_diver_scallops",
     "name": "Seared Diver Scallops",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:mole",
     "name": "Mole",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:calamari",
     "name": "Calamari",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:european",
     "name": "European",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:food",
     "name": "Food",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:worship",
     "name": "worship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:cookbooks",
     "name": "Cookbooks",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 82,
   "sharedCount": 18,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.45
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.22491966033658706,
   "sharedCount": 20.11111111111111,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.41666666666666674
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8235043973756497,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Anuel AA",
       "affinity": 0.73784908119233
      },
      {
       "name": "J Balvin",
       "affinity": 0.7500877037650895
      },
      {
       "name": "Maluma",
       "affinity": 0.7567993612719712
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.782050093319268,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "HA-ASH",
       "affinity": 0.8231267907204196
      },
      {
       "name": "Ricky Martin",
       "affinity": 0.8122704075155499
      },
      {
       "name": "Reik",
       "affinity": 0.8101063582971053
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Saved by the Bell",
       "affinity": 0.8834029776065323
      },
      {
       "name": "Step Up: High Water",
       "affinity": 0.8895665857878019
      },
      {
       "name": "The L.A. Complex",
       "affinity": 0.8896012178264151
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9119478426852902,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Blown Away",
       "affinity": 0.9559350391722585
      },
      {
       "name": "Lego Masters",
       "affinity": 0.9550103739444693
      },
      {
       "name": "Lego Masters Australia",
       "affinity": 0.9452108337341905
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2",
       "affinity": 0.7475669938808472
      },
      {
       "name": "Spider-Man: Homecoming",
       "affinity": 0.749657536285533
      },
      {
       "name": "Thor: Ragnarok",
       "affinity": 0.7566915791151508
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8004796005110353,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Jumanji: The Next Level",
       "affinity": 0.8408215857990153
      },
      {
       "name": "Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker",
       "affinity": 0.8383786472098245
      },
      {
       "name": "Spider-Man: Far from Home",
       "affinity": 0.8349738531727271
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "First Take",
       "affinity": 0.6537048995411454
      },
      {
       "name": "Talk Is Jericho",
       "affinity": 0.6842942496652732
      },
      {
       "name": "The Steve Austin Show",
       "affinity": 0.6882988877038629
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.7995400529870055,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Chalene Show | Diet, Fitness & Life Balance",
       "affinity": 0.9396800267488764
      },
      {
       "name": "Trust and Believe with Shaun T",
       "affinity": 0.9007829567880961
      },
      {
       "name": "Motivation with Brendon Burchard",
       "affinity": 0.8827875890943927
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8142200656582131,
   "domains[0].score": 0.7712218159459897,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8930482681153483,
   "domains[2].score": 0.7853466318542113,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8072635467173033
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.11749999999999998,
    "female": -0.11749999999999998,
    "25_to_29": 0.29000000000000004,
    "30_to_34": -0.0675,
    "35_to_44": -0.22000000000000003,
    "45_to_54": -0.475,
    "55_and_older": -0.3825,
    "24_and_younger": 0.19999999999999998
   },
   "value": 0.6839248818042627,
   "cosine": 0.3678497636085255,
   "target": {
    "male": -0.77,
    "female": 0.77,
    "25_to_29": 0.16,
    "30_to_34": -0.8,
    "35_to_44": 0.27,
    "45_to_54": -0.59,
    "55_and_older": -0.5700000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": 0.62
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.11749999999999998,
    "bucket": "male",
    "target": -0.77
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5395238058358314,
   "cosine": 0.07904761167166277
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.154807226901656,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.5548783018204364,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.8612713326616613,
     "buyerRel": -0.23160565198839222,
     "targetRel": 0.07478737885283271
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.49558502705752777,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.8211930852684377,
     "buyerRel": -0.25383935528139906,
     "targetRel": 0.07176870292951087
    },
    {
     "lat": 47.6062,
     "lon": -122.3321,
     "buyer": 0.7106098918205455,
     "metro": "Seattle",
     "target": 0.9133195106119435,
     "buyerRel": -0.1506472528033782,
     "targetRel": 0.05206236598801983
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.6833639071557437,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.8470898638376726,
     "buyerRel": -0.1119661683187444,
     "targetRel": 0.05175978836318451
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.6089413566713184,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.8533772988475076,
     "buyerRel": -0.19662717112740113,
     "targetRel": 0.047808771048788
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.6872049394855749,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.8708140220249834,
     "buyerRel": -0.13706411737560187,
     "targetRel": 0.04654496516380657
    },
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.6370498133412997,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.8835133165331027,
     "buyerRel": -0.2010937201444889,
     "targetRel": 0.045369783047314094
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.5816,
     "lon": -121.4944,
     "buyer": 0.7552310511414703,
     "metro": "Sacramento",
     "target": 0.9044488533157277,
     "buyerRel": -0.10426585332328575,
     "targetRel": 0.044951948850971646
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.690385546196688,
   "strongholds": [],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 13,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.3788101542840746,
   "correlation": -0.2423796914318507
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": null,
   "note": "Qloo's trending series did not move for this brand or the cohort in the 12 weeks to 2026-10-23, so momentum is not measurable for this window.",
   "value": null,
   "priorSd": null,
   "coverage": 0,
   "priorMean": null,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": null
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: LILY's Sweets",
  "data": {
   "name": "LILY's Sweets",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Quaker Oats Company",
     "score": 0.27448747533919754
    },
    {
     "name": "Doritos",
     "score": 0.2502369947949288
    },
    {
     "name": "Gatorade",
     "score": 0.24298500024219005
    },
    {
     "name": "Pepsi",
     "score": 0.23229052962368354
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Canada"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.8540031530233425,
   "screenRank": 8,
   "foundedYear": 2012,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    4,
    8
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "The Hershey Company",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.6451061144717869,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "ChocZero",
    "Hu Kitchen",
    "Alter Eco",
    "Endangered Species Chocolate"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium sugar-free chocolate brand focused on delivering decadent taste without the glycemic impact of traditional sugar."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 52.18644163884051,
   "points": {
    "m1": 21.17134507124354,
    "m2": 4.171194949024478,
    "m3": 13.72507328959416,
    "m4": 11.398748030071046,
    "m5": 1.720080298907289,
    "m6": 0
   },
   "coverage": 0.9
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 55.38338238220258,
   "coverage": 0.8800000000000001
  }
 }
]