Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Red Bull → target #5 of 8

Reebok

Accessible mid-market athletic brand focusing on the intersection of fitness heritage and modern lifestyle.

Founded 1958 · Parent: Authentic Brands Group · Competes with Nike, Adidas, Puma, New Balance · Partnerships: UFC, CrossFit, Victoria Beckham

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
65.7F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 65.7 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.85
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.15
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.89
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.81
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.29
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.49
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3529.9
Taste-profile overlap0.101.5
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.9
Demographic alignment0.108.1
Geographic footprint0.205.9
Momentum0.052.5
F65.7

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Red Bull (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Reebok’s audience embraces them.

Music0.87
Embraced: David Guetta, Swedish House Mafia, Calvin Harris · Least shared: Pendulum, The Prodigy, Netsky
TV0.93
Embraced: The Ultimate Fighter, The Challenge, American Ninja Warrior · Least shared: Top Gear USA, The Island with Bear Grylls, Dirty Jobs
Film0.90
Embraced: Ford v Ferrari, El Camino, The Irishman · Least shared: Tenet, Knives Out, Ad Astra
Podcasts0.87
Embraced: Jocko Podcast, The Art of Charm, The Tai Lopez Show · Least shared: Wen Lambo Crypto Podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, The Tony Robbins Podcast

Taste profile overlap

16 of 84 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
HotelHip HoprapelectronicrockhouseReggaeRestaurant
Buyer only

Travel, Gazpacho, car, friend, california

Reebok only

Tataki Atun, taiwanese drama, Fitness, Health, mexico

Audience shape

Red Bull (buyer) Reebok
-0.64-0.320.00+0.32+0.64≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.06 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Reebok strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Boston, Providence, San Diego, Miami, New York, Tampa, Houston, Los Angeles

Shared strongholds

Salt Lake City, Denver

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Aggregate taste-graph cross-domain agreement is high: the audience's affinities across music, TV, film and podcasts line up strongly, with the overall cross-domain score reading as a strength against the shortlist average.

    t7-m3.value = 0.8925t7-m3.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8466

  • The TV domain is the strongest single alignment, with the shared TV affinities (led by The Ultimate Fighter) indicating the audience over-indexes on high-energy competition programming that fits Reebok's UFC and CrossFit partnerships.

    t7-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9326t7-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.9744

  • Demographic alignment is a strength: the buyer's aggregate age-and-gender profile lines up with the target's, with the demographic alignment value above the shortlist average.

    t7-m4.value = 0.8136t7-m4.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8048

  • Reebok's Qloo profile shows a forward affinity to Red Bull equal to the two-way affinity, and the two-way audience affinity sits at a level the code does not flag as a red flag, though it reads as below the shortlist average, which is a limitation to weigh.

    t7-m1.value = 0.8534t7-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.8534

    Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.8534 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8743)

  • Reebok's popularity is near the top of the scale in the aggregate taste graph, and the code raised no red flags, supporting a case that the brand's visibility can carry a co-brand without a fading-audience concern.

    t7-profile.popularity = 0.9957t7-flags.flags.length = 0

    Rejected by the judge: "flags.length" does not resolve to a number in t7-flags

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Two-way audience affinity between Red Bull and Reebok is weak at 0.853 against a shortlist average of 0.874, so the overlap in the aggregate audience is below the peer set.

    t7-m1.value = 0.8534t7-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8743

  • Taste-profile overlap is thin: only 16 shared tags across a union of 84, with a Jaccard-style value of 0.154 against a shortlist average of 0.190. The audience over-indexes on distinct tags for each brand rather than a shared taste core.

    t7-m2.value = 0.1544t7-m2.sharedCount = 16t7-m2.unionCount = 84

  • Geographic footprint is misaligned: the correlation of the buyer and target metro footprints is -0.413, against a shortlist average of 0.059. Nine white-space metros show the buyer's audience is strong where Reebok's aggregate affinity is weaker, including Boston, New York and Los Angeles.

    t7-m5.correlation = -0.4127t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 9t7-m5.shortlistAverages.correlation = 0.05925

  • Demographic alignment has a visible gap at 45 to 54: the buyer's aggregate index is 0.01 while the target's is -0.62, and the target's 55-and-older index is -0.56 against the buyer's -0.64. Diligence should confirm the age skew before any co-brand creative is planned around it.

    t7-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.62t7-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.01

  • Composite score F is 65.7 against a shortlist average of 70.5, a weakness. Momentum is also weak, with z at -0.058 against a shortlist average of -0.035, so the diligence case should not assume the overlap is growing. The code raised no red flags, but the committee should treat the weaker m1, m2, m5 and m6 readings as the bear case before committing.

    t7-score.F = 65.72t7-m6.z = -0.0578

IC memo

Number check passed: 26 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5 (after one repair pass)

Reebok: WATCH

Recommendation. Keep Reebok at WATCH. The verdict rule applied: composite F of 65.7 falls in the 62 to 67 band, and the code raised no red flags. Reebok ranks 5 of 8 on the shortlist, and its composite is below the shortlist average of 70.5, so the case rests on specific audience strengths rather than an overall lead.

Where the audiences meet

  • Aggregate cross-domain agreement across music, TV, film and podcasts is a validated strength.
  • TV is the strongest single alignment. The audience affinity over-indexes on high-energy competition programming, led by The Ultimate Fighter, which fits Reebok's UFC and CrossFit partnerships.
  • Demographic alignment is a strength on the aggregate age-and-gender profile, above the shortlist average.

Risks

  • Two-way audience affinity with Red Bull is 0.853, below the 0.874 shortlist average.
  • Taste overlap is thin: 16 shared tags across a union of 84, a value of 0.154 against a 0.190 average.
  • Geographic footprints are misaligned: correlation of -0.413 against a 0.059 average. Nine white-space metros, including Boston, New York and Los Angeles, show buyer affinity where Reebok's is weaker.
  • Age gap in the middle bracket: buyer index 0.01, target index -0.62. In the 55-and-older bracket the target is -0.56 against the buyer's -0.64.
  • Momentum is weak: z at -0.058 against a -0.035 average. The weaker m1, m2, m5 and m6 readings form the bear case.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot show, given two-way affinity of 0.853 against a 0.874 average?
  • Does the thin shared taste core (16 of 84 tags) hold up in creative testing?
  • Which of the nine white-space metros matter for a launch, and can the footprint gap be closed?
  • Does the middle-age skew hold in fresh audience data before any creative is planned around it?
  • Is momentum flat or declining, given z at -0.058?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok15 of 15 candidates scoredlive 78 ms
/v2/insightsok15 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 109 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 582 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 612 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 984 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 2269 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3481 ms
/v2/insightsok11060 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3602 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 303 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 6988 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 7203 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 7732 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 7978 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 8082 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 8305 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 8702 ms
/v2/insightsok7151 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 11730 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t7-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8533534715491858,
   "b": 0.8533534715491858,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8533534715491858,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "409FAF5A-BC5F-4DC3-943D-E3B5F20B471D",
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "affinity": 0.8533534715491858
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8742664278855332,
   "b": 0.8742664278855332,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8742664278855332
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.15436849253055682,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:hotel",
     "name": "Hotel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
     "name": "house",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:reggae",
     "name": "Reggae",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant",
     "name": "Restaurant",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:travel",
     "name": "Travel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:gazpacho",
     "name": "Gazpacho",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:california",
     "name": "california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tataki_atun",
     "name": "Tataki Atun",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:taiwanese_drama",
     "name": "taiwanese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:fitness",
     "name": "Fitness",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:health",
     "name": "Health",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mexico",
     "name": "mexico",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 84,
   "sharedCount": 16,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.1904880193092421,
   "sharedCount": 17.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4625000000000001
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.892520036794066,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Pendulum",
       "affinity": 0.8040194613137931
      },
      {
       "name": "The Prodigy",
       "affinity": 0.8125204626319553
      },
      {
       "name": "Netsky",
       "affinity": 0.8291040156592351
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8650841207545881,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "David Guetta",
       "affinity": 0.91092607394747
      },
      {
       "name": "Swedish House Mafia",
       "affinity": 0.8945398224752573
      },
      {
       "name": "Calvin Harris",
       "affinity": 0.891709850084078
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Top Gear USA",
       "affinity": 0.9085691001169907
      },
      {
       "name": "The Island with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.911663445716401
      },
      {
       "name": "Dirty Jobs",
       "affinity": 0.9120292898503607
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.932628704806169,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Ultimate Fighter",
       "affinity": 0.9744140167252598
      },
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.9569025339365231
      },
      {
       "name": "American Ninja Warrior",
       "affinity": 0.9549999691181457
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Tenet",
       "affinity": 0.8815222775061362
      },
      {
       "name": "Knives Out",
       "affinity": 0.8836439510087136
      },
      {
       "name": "Ad Astra",
       "affinity": 0.88368150138558
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8991788228198467,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ford v Ferrari",
       "affinity": 0.9394116768489058
      },
      {
       "name": "El Camino",
       "affinity": 0.9188699627176669
      },
      {
       "name": "The Irishman",
       "affinity": 0.9183447288233919
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Wen Lambo Crypto Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.819042725244689
      },
      {
       "name": "The Joe Rogan Experience",
       "affinity": 0.8411191613271853
      },
      {
       "name": "The Tony Robbins Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8450157856327272
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8731884987956601,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Jocko Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9058793563048709
      },
      {
       "name": "The Art of Charm",
       "affinity": 0.9046287989223385
      },
      {
       "name": "The Tai Lopez Show",
       "affinity": 0.8996743850361859
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8465550725421571,
   "domains[0].score": 0.81236913387113,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8777061177037968,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8717940715775916,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8243509670161102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.62,
    "female": -0.62,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.04,
    "35_to_44": 0.07,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": -0.64,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05
   },
   "value": 0.8136090646501979,
   "cosine": 0.6272181293003957,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.24,
    "female": -0.24,
    "25_to_29": -0.07,
    "30_to_34": 0.24,
    "35_to_44": 0.36,
    "45_to_54": -0.62,
    "55_and_older": -0.56,
    "24_and_younger": -0.02
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.01,
    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.62
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8047735128605162,
   "cosine": 0.6095470257210326
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.29363104819803587,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 42.3601,
     "lon": -71.0589,
     "buyer": 0.9833822627003668,
     "metro": "Boston",
     "target": 0.9755774742966753,
     "buyerRel": 0.0003520029893324672,
     "targetRel": -0.007452785414359009
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.824,
     "lon": -71.4128,
     "buyer": 0.9877027144128224,
     "metro": "Providence",
     "target": 0.95750421068145,
     "buyerRel": 0.010286658706696095,
     "targetRel": -0.019911845024676356
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.7157,
     "lon": -117.1611,
     "buyer": 0.9981198834853208,
     "metro": "San Diego",
     "target": 0.9635637207901888,
     "buyerRel": 0.010987804756228736,
     "targetRel": -0.023568357938903217
    },
    {
     "lat": 25.7617,
     "lon": -80.1918,
     "buyer": 0.9941335403646854,
     "metro": "Miami",
     "target": 0.9530075557836742,
     "buyerRel": 0.013097057976390936,
     "targetRel": -0.028028926604620197
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7128,
     "lon": -74.006,
     "buyer": 0.9938338170838814,
     "metro": "New York",
     "target": 0.9603607734700959,
     "buyerRel": 0.005304710247738709,
     "targetRel": -0.02816833336604685
    },
    {
     "lat": 27.9506,
     "lon": -82.4572,
     "buyer": 0.9947985384695401,
     "metro": "Tampa",
     "target": 0.9519497360239282,
     "buyerRel": 0.013534131424928764,
     "targetRel": -0.029314671020683192
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.7604,
     "lon": -95.3698,
     "buyer": 0.9891464680709147,
     "metro": "Houston",
     "target": 0.9495100343806154,
     "buyerRel": 0.00827685189974292,
     "targetRel": -0.03135958179055631
    },
    {
     "lat": 34.0522,
     "lon": -118.2437,
     "buyer": 0.9945263438831847,
     "metro": "Los Angeles",
     "target": 0.9540965972161642,
     "buyerRel": 0.008230511741984414,
     "targetRel": -0.03219923492503607
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.4127379036039282,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 40.7608,
     "lon": -111.891,
     "buyer": 0.9945142527870496,
     "metro": "Salt Lake City",
     "target": 0.911392047161816,
     "buyerRel": 0.04605769248067082,
     "targetRel": -0.03706451314456283
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.7392,
     "lon": -104.9903,
     "buyer": 0.9964989417490946,
     "metro": "Denver",
     "target": 0.9341654466342731,
     "buyerRel": 0.0345994134340315,
     "targetRel": -0.027734081680789946
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 9,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5296261155151881,
   "correlation": 0.05925223103037629
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.057799190103235976,
   "value": 0.49036680164946067,
   "priorSd": 0.0007266741285960163,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0.16579979615060614,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0.16464381234854142
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": -0.034857319857814484,
   "value": 0.4941904466903642
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Reebok",
  "data": {
   "name": "Reebok",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "United Kingdom",
    "Europe",
    "China"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9956942584462036,
   "screenRank": 7,
   "foundedYear": 1958,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    50,
    150
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Authentic Brands Group",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8533534715491858,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Nike",
    "Adidas",
    "Puma",
    "New Balance",
    "Under Armour"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "UFC",
    "CrossFit",
    "Victoria Beckham"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Accessible mid-market athletic brand focusing on the intersection of fitness heritage and modern lifestyle."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 65.72200278411839,
   "points": {
    "m1": 29.867371504221506,
    "m2": 1.5436849253055682,
    "m3": 17.85040073588132,
    "m4": 8.136090646501978,
    "m5": 5.872620963960717,
    "m6": 2.451834008247303
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.54651629229
  }
 }
]