Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Red Bull → target #3 of 8

Vans

Accessible, authentic lifestyle brand for action sports and casual streetwear enthusiasts.

Founded 1966 · Parent: VF Corporation · Competes with Converse, DC Shoes, Nike SB, Globe · Partnerships: Supreme, Thrasher, Disney

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
76.8F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 76.8 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.88
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.15
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.84
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.67
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.92
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.49
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3530.9
Taste-profile overlap0.101.5
Cross-domain agreement0.2016.8
Demographic alignment0.106.7
Geographic footprint0.2018.3
Momentum0.052.5
F76.8

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Red Bull (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Vans’s audience embraces them.

Music0.78
Embraced: Skrillex, David Guetta, Calvin Harris · Least shared: Fedde Le Grand, Steve Angello, Bingo Players
TV0.89
Embraced: Fear Factor, The Ultimate Fighter, American Gladiators · Least shared: Race Across the World, The Island with Bear Grylls, Naked and Afraid XL
Film0.84
Embraced: The Peanut Butter Falcon, Uncut Gems, Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood · Least shared: Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, 6 Underground, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
Podcasts0.86
Embraced: The Tai Lopez Show, The GaryVee Audio Experience, The Dropout Degree with Josh King Madrid · Least shared: Jocko Podcast, The Kevin Rose Show, Wealthy Way

Taste profile overlap

16 of 84 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip HopfriendrockindierapTourist attractionelectronicAlternative Rock
Buyer only

Travel, Gazpacho, car, house, Reggae

Vans only

Romance, Salmon A La Plancha, teenager, teenage girl, high school

Audience shape

Red Bull (buyer) Vans
-0.64-0.320.00+0.32+0.64≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.04 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Vans strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Memphis

Shared strongholds

Boise, Anchorage, Omaha, Tucson, Albuquerque, Louisville, Oklahoma City, Nashville

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The two-way audience affinity between Red Bull and Vans is high, with the audience over-indexing on both brands at a level above the shortlist average for this target.

    t3-m1.value = 0.8836t3-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8743

  • The composite score sits above the shortlist average, with the geographic footprint contributing the second-largest point block of the composite.

    t3-score.F = 76.77t3-score.points.m5 = 18.32t3-score.points.m1 = 30.93

  • Geographic overlap is a strength: the aggregate audience affinity correlates strongly across metros, well above the shortlist average correlation.

    t3-m5.correlation = 0.8319t3-m5.shortlistAverages.correlation = 0.05925

  • Vans is recorded with Red Bull as its forward driver and a near-maximum popularity, suggesting the brand relationship is already present in the taste graph as a base to build on.

    t3-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.8836t3-profile.popularity = 0.9997

  • Cross-domain agreement is strongest in TV and podcasts, where the audience over-indexes on Red Bull-adjacent content at affinities above the shortlist averages for those domains.

    t3-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8889t3-m3.domains[3].score = 0.8244t3-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[1].score = 0.8777

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8244 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[3].score", but the ledger says 0.8613

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Taste-profile overlap is thin: the code reads the shared-tag overlap as a weakness versus the shortlist, with only 16 shared tags out of 84 in the union, meaning the two audiences' taste graphs barely intersect at the tag level.

    t3-m2.value = 0.1549t3-m2.sharedCount = 16t3-m2.unionCount = 84

  • Demographic alignment is the weakest read: the aggregate gender-and-age profile cosine is 0.3336 against a shortlist average of 0.6095, and the largest gap sits in the 35-to-44 bucket, where the buyer is at 0.07 and the target at -0.64.

    t3-m4.cosine = 0.3336t3-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.64t3-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.07

  • Momentum is flat-to-negative for the target: the z-score is -0.0401 against a shortlist average of -0.0349, a weakness, so the audience signal is not strengthening and a co-brand would be launching into a stagnant trend.

    t3-m6.z = -0.04011t3-m6.z = -0.03486

  • Cross-domain agreement on music and film is below the shortlist, so the shared audience's tastes are less consistent in those areas; the strong two-way affinity of 0.8836 (equal to Vans' forward affinity) rests on a single driver, Red Bull, and should be verified before it is treated as evidence of fit.

    t3-m3.domains[0].score = 0.7813t3-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.8836

  • The buyer's top-20 taste tags are largely missing from the target's profile: the buyer-side missing share is 0.5, above the shortlist average of 0.4625, so a co-brand would need to bridge a sizeable gap in aggregate affinity.

    t3-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.5t3-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.4625

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.4625 for m2 Taste-profile overlap "buyerTop20MissingShare", but the ledger says 0.5

IC memo

Number check passed: 24 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Vans: ADVANCE

Recommendation. Advance Vans to the next screen. Under the verdict rule (composite F of 76.8 at or above 67, with no red flags), Vans clears both tests: its composite is above the shortlist average of 70.5 and it ranks 3 of 8. The audience signal is strong on affinity and geography, but taste and demographic overlap are weak, so this is a conditional advance.

Where the audiences meet. The two-way audience affinity between Red Bull and Vans is 0.88, slightly above the shortlist average of 0.87. Geographic footprint is the second-largest point block in the composite. Audience affinity correlates strongly across metros (0.83, against a shortlist average of 0.06), and the aggregate audience over-indexes in several shared strongholds, including Boise, Omaha, Tucson and Nashville. Vans' profile lists Red Bull as its forward driver with a popularity near 1.

Risks.

  • Taste overlap is thin. Only 16 shared tags out of 84 in the union, against a shortlist average of 17.75 shared tags. The two audiences' taste graphs barely intersect at the tag level.
  • Demographic alignment is the weakest read. The gender-and-age cosine is 0.33, against a shortlist average of 0.61. The largest gap is in the 35-to-44 bucket: the buyer audience is at 0.07 and the target at -0.64.
  • Momentum is flat-to-negative. The z-score is -0.04, against a shortlist average of -0.03. The audience signal is not strengthening.
  • Cross-domain agreement is weak in music and film. The strong two-way affinity rests on a single driver, Red Bull, and needs verification before it is read as evidence of fit.
  • Red flags: none recorded.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot between Red Bull and Vans show about shared tastes, given only 16 shared tags?
  • Can the 35-to-44 gap be explained by the product or channel plan, and how would the pilot address it?
  • Does the flat momentum reading hold on a longer window, and what would signal a turn?
  • Does the affinity hold when Red Bull is not the only driver, given the single-driver profile?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok15 of 15 candidates scoredlive 78 ms
/v2/insightsok15 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 109 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 582 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 612 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 984 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 2269 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3481 ms
/v2/insightsok11060 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3602 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 303 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok10712 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 279 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 292 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 312 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 313 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 328 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 329 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t3-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8836033830097875,
   "b": 0.8836033830097875,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8836033830097875,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "409FAF5A-BC5F-4DC3-943D-E3B5F20B471D",
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "affinity": 0.8836033830097875
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8742664278855332,
   "b": 0.8742664278855332,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8742664278855332
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.15489130434782603,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:alternative_rock",
     "name": "Alternative Rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:travel",
     "name": "Travel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:gazpacho",
     "name": "Gazpacho",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
     "name": "house",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:reggae",
     "name": "Reggae",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:romance",
     "name": "Romance",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:salmon_a_la_plancha",
     "name": "Salmon A La Plancha",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenager",
     "name": "teenager",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenage_girl",
     "name": "teenage girl",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:high_school",
     "name": "high school",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 84,
   "sharedCount": 16,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.5
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.1904880193092421,
   "sharedCount": 17.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4625000000000001
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8420693302736023,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Fedde Le Grand",
       "affinity": 0.7246210552346983
      },
      {
       "name": "Steve Angello",
       "affinity": 0.7401354290025813
      },
      {
       "name": "Bingo Players",
       "affinity": 0.7433642698287113
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.7813021289034168,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Skrillex",
       "affinity": 0.8425138589533671
      },
      {
       "name": "David Guetta",
       "affinity": 0.8225689992665045
      },
      {
       "name": "Calvin Harris",
       "affinity": 0.8212724191219319
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Race Across the World",
       "affinity": 0.8652581769471501
      },
      {
       "name": "The Island with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.8724375589785187
      },
      {
       "name": "Naked and Afraid XL",
       "affinity": 0.8726624089400314
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.888868831201009,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Fear Factor",
       "affinity": 0.920113683128627
      },
      {
       "name": "The Ultimate Fighter",
       "affinity": 0.9132927101871209
      },
      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.9070626347546968
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw",
       "affinity": 0.7890026217641989
      },
      {
       "name": "6 Underground",
       "affinity": 0.7994927665996863
      },
      {
       "name": "John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum",
       "affinity": 0.80624487365719
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8368259525968373,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Peanut Butter Falcon",
       "affinity": 0.8955069388767046
      },
      {
       "name": "Uncut Gems",
       "affinity": 0.8845325285970919
      },
      {
       "name": "Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood",
       "affinity": 0.8718036842487329
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Jocko Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8068842435511601
      },
      {
       "name": "The Kevin Rose Show",
       "affinity": 0.8374181259160138
      },
      {
       "name": "Wealthy Way",
       "affinity": 0.8400925948152032
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8612804083931461,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Tai Lopez Show",
       "affinity": 0.9503411412357765
      },
      {
       "name": "The GaryVee Audio Experience",
       "affinity": 0.8937179916684531
      },
      {
       "name": "The Dropout Degree with Josh King Madrid",
       "affinity": 0.8916654670549369
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8465550725421571,
   "domains[0].score": 0.81236913387113,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8777061177037968,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8717940715775916,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8243509670161102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.62,
    "female": -0.62,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.04,
    "35_to_44": 0.07,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": -0.64,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05
   },
   "value": 0.6668025536762521,
   "cosine": 0.33360510735250415,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.03,
    "female": -0.03,
    "25_to_29": 0.1,
    "30_to_34": 0.15,
    "35_to_44": -0.64,
    "45_to_54": -0.45,
    "55_and_older": -0.62,
    "24_and_younger": 0.51
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.07,
    "bucket": "35_to_44",
    "target": -0.64
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8047735128605162,
   "cosine": 0.6095470257210326
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.9159310060278555,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
     "lon": -90.049,
     "buyer": 0.9168995581664985,
     "metro": "Memphis",
     "target": 0.971532638160382,
     "buyerRel": 0.018382928823719502,
     "targetRel": 0.07301600881760306
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.831862012055711,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.9795637467798889,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.9682200595614554,
     "buyerRel": 0.10446112472283309,
     "targetRel": 0.0931174375043996
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.9802737173952585,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.9657211056995523,
     "buyerRel": 0.08051457770014148,
     "targetRel": 0.06596196600443527
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.2565,
     "lon": -95.9345,
     "buyer": 0.9320263317139016,
     "metro": "Omaha",
     "target": 0.954419240585192,
     "buyerRel": 0.061812645934653854,
     "targetRel": 0.08420555480594427
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.9807976562454038,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.9851832804779406,
     "buyerRel": 0.06023799128701168,
     "targetRel": 0.06462361551954843
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.9816286046876824,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9882015531078187,
     "buyerRel": 0.05304300910658999,
     "targetRel": 0.059615957526726215
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.9607272859150928,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9806533139539768,
     "buyerRel": 0.04413724780614969,
     "targetRel": 0.06406327584503368
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.9752945243126018,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9861224003291553,
     "buyerRel": 0.04639099752475939,
     "targetRel": 0.05721887354131294
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.9701633276552362,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.9855803183145777,
     "buyerRel": 0.036245461301631754,
     "targetRel": 0.0516624519609733
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 1,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5296261155151881,
   "correlation": 0.05925223103037629
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.0401117192418976,
   "value": 0.49331471345968375,
   "priorSd": 0.0006520250325365353,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.1734818653788941,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.17428409976373205
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": -0.034857319857814484,
   "value": 0.4941904466903642
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Vans",
  "data": {
   "name": "Vans",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "United Kingdom",
    "Canada",
    "Germany",
    "Japan"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9996779169703853,
   "screenRank": 3,
   "foundedYear": 1966,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    50,
    120
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "VF Corporation",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8836033830097875,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Converse",
    "DC Shoes",
    "Nike SB",
    "Globe",
    "Emerica"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Supreme",
    "Thrasher",
    "Disney",
    "National Geographic",
    "Karl Lagerfeld"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Accessible, authentic lifestyle brand for action sports and casual streetwear enthusiasts."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 76.76963727891093,
   "points": {
    "m1": 30.92611840534256,
    "m2": 1.5489130434782603,
    "m3": 16.841386605472046,
    "m4": 6.668025536762521,
    "m5": 18.31862012055711,
    "m6": 2.466573567298419
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.54651629229
  }
 }
]