Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Red Bull → target #2 of 8

Nike

Market-leading athletic brand providing high-performance gear across a wide range of price points for professional and amateur athletes.

Founded 1964 · Parent: Nike, Inc. · Competes with Adidas, Puma, Under Armour, New Balance · Partnerships: Kevin Durant, Colin Kaepernick, Anna Cockrell

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
79.1F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 79.1 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.89
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.21
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.83
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.87
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.90
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.49
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3531.2
Taste-profile overlap0.102.1
Cross-domain agreement0.2016.6
Demographic alignment0.108.7
Geographic footprint0.2018.0
Momentum0.052.5
F79.1

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Red Bull (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Nike’s audience embraces them.

Music0.83
Embraced: David Guetta, Calvin Harris, Example · Least shared: Pendulum, The Prodigy, Moguai
TV0.86
Embraced: Hyperdrive, American Gladiators, SAS: Who Dares Wins · Least shared: Top Gear USA, Running Wild with Bear Grylls, The Island with Bear Grylls
Film0.86
Embraced: John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, Ford v Ferrari, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw · Least shared: Knives Out, Richard Jewell, The Peanut Butter Falcon
Podcasts0.77
Embraced: The Joe Rogan Experience, The Tai Lopez Show, The GaryVee Audio Experience · Least shared: Noah Kagan Presents, The Tony Robbins Podcast, The Mike Dillard Show

Taste profile overlap

19 of 81 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
HotelelectronicHip HoprapfriendrockReggaehouse
Buyer only

Travel, Gazpacho, car, Tourist attraction, california

Nike only

Tataki Atun, teenager, teenage girl, love, pop

Audience shape

Red Bull (buyer) Nike
-0.64-0.320.00+0.32+0.64≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.06 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Nike strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Memphis

Shared strongholds

Boise, Omaha, Anchorage, Tucson, Louisville, Albuquerque, Oklahoma City, Nashville

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Two-way audience affinity is high: the audience over-indexes on Nike among Red Bull's audience and on Red Bull among Nike's, at 0.89 in both directions, above the shortlist average of 0.87.

    t2-m1.value = 0.8908t2-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8743

  • Taste-profile overlap is a strength: 19 shared taste tags out of a union of 81, with a shared-tag ratio of 0.21 against a shortlist average of 0.19, and 8 of Red Bull's top-20 tags are shared across the two audiences.

    t2-m2.sharedCount = 19t2-m2.value = 0.2085t2-m2.shortlistAverages.sharedCount = 17.75

  • Demographic alignment is strong: the audience cosine is 0.74 against a shortlist average of 0.61, with both audiences skewing male and under-35 in aggregate, which supports a shared creative and media plan.

    t2-m4.cosine = 0.7422t2-m4.value = 0.8711t2-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.6095

  • Geographic footprint is a strength: the buyer-target correlation across 55 metros is 0.80 versus a shortlist average of 0.06, and Memphis is flagged as the one white-space metro where the target over-indexes relative to the buyer.

    t2-m5.correlation = 0.7982t2-m5.value = 0.8991t2-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 1

  • The composite fit score is 79.1 against a shortlist average of 70.5, a strength driven mainly by audience affinity (31.2 points) and geographic footprint (18.0 points), so the case rests on overlap rather than on cross-domain or momentum signals.

    t2-score.F = 79.06t2-score.points.m1 = 31.18t2-score.points.m5 = 17.98

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Cross-domain agreement is a weakness: the audience's cross-domain score is 0.8323 against a shortlist average of 0.8466, and the music, TV, film and podcast domains each read below the shortlist, so the affinity does not hold consistently across entertainment categories.

    t2-m3.value = 0.8323t2-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8619

  • Momentum is a weakness: the momentum z-score is -0.0564 against a shortlist average of -0.0349, and the recent mean sits below the prior mean in aggregate, so the audience trend is not clearly rising and any licensing upside is unproven on this signal.

    t2-m6.z = -0.05644t2-m6.value = 0.4906

  • The demographic gap is material: the buyer's aggregate affinity for the 45-54 bracket is 0.01 while the target sits at -0.51, and the 55-and-older bucket diverges sharply, so the two brands reach different age cohorts and a co-brand may need separate creative for older audiences.

    t2-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.01t2-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.51

  • The bear case is that the aggregate taste-profile overlap is thin: the shared-taste score sits at 0.2085 against a shortlist average of 0.1905, and the shared tags are mostly generic (Hotel, friend, house), so the audience overlap that the composite rewards is not a deep shared-identity signal.

    t2-m2.value = 0.2085t2-m2.sharedCount = 19

    Rejected by the judge: cites m2 Taste-profile overlap "value" = 0.2085 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.1905)

  • Diligence is needed before committing: the code raised no red flags, but the composite F of 79.06 is carried mostly by the two-way affinity term (m1 at 0.8908) and the geographic term, so the committee should confirm these aggregate signals hold on a fresh pull and verify the partnership history of Nike before pursuing a licence.

    t2-m1.value = 0.8908t2-score.F = 79.06

    Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.8908 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.8743)

IC memo

Number check passed: 27 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5 (after one repair pass)

Nike: ADVANCE

Recommendation Advance Nike to the next stage of the Red Bull sneaker collaboration screen. The verdict rule was a composite F of at least 67 with no red flags. Nike scores 79.1 against a shortlist average of 70.5, ranks 2 of 8, and has no red flags. The case rests on audience overlap rather than on cross-domain or momentum signals.

Where the audiences meet

  • Two-way audience affinity is 0.89 in both directions, above the shortlist average of 0.87. The audience over-indexes on Nike among Red Bull's audience and on Red Bull among Nike's.
  • Taste overlap is a strength: 19 shared taste tags out of a union of 81, a shared-tag ratio of 0.21 against a shortlist average of 0.19. Eight of Red Bull's top-20 tags are shared.
  • Audience cosine is 0.74 against a shortlist average of 0.61. Both audiences skew male and under-35 in aggregate, which supports a shared creative and media plan.
  • Geographic footprint is strong: buyer-target correlation across 55 metros is 0.80 against a shortlist average of 0.06. Memphis is the one white-space metro, where the target over-indexes relative to the buyer.

Risks

  • Cross-domain agreement is a validated weakness: 0.8323 against a shortlist average of 0.8466. Music, TV, film and podcast each read below the shortlist, so the affinity is not consistent across entertainment categories.
  • Momentum is a validated weakness: z-score of -0.0564 against a shortlist average of -0.0349. The recent mean sits below the prior mean in aggregate, so upside is unproven on this signal.
  • The age gap is material. The buyer's aggregate affinity for the bracket following 35-to-44 is 0.01, while the target sits at -0.51. The 55-and-older bucket diverges sharply, so a co-brand may need separate creative for older audiences.
  • The code rules raised no red flags.

Diligence questions

  • Would a co-branded pilot hold up across music, TV, film and podcast placements, given the weaker cross-domain agreement?
  • What evidence would show whether momentum is rising, given the negative recent-versus-prior trend?
  • How would the creative plan address the older-age gap without diluting the core audience?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok15 of 15 candidates scoredlive 78 ms
/v2/insightsok15 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 109 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 582 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 612 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 984 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 2269 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3481 ms
/v2/insightsok11060 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3602 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 303 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok11306 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 3456 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 3736 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 4282 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 4754 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 5228 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 5444 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t2-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8907942834587187,
   "b": 0.8907942834587187,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8907942834587187,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "409FAF5A-BC5F-4DC3-943D-E3B5F20B471D",
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "affinity": 0.8907942834587187
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8742664278855332,
   "b": 0.8742664278855332,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8742664278855332
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.20853080568720384,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:hotel",
     "name": "Hotel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:reggae",
     "name": "Reggae",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
     "name": "house",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:travel",
     "name": "Travel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:gazpacho",
     "name": "Gazpacho",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:california",
     "name": "california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tataki_atun",
     "name": "Tataki Atun",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenager",
     "name": "teenager",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenage_girl",
     "name": "teenage girl",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:love",
     "name": "love",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:pop",
     "name": "pop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 81,
   "sharedCount": 19,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.45
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.1904880193092421,
   "sharedCount": 17.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4625000000000001
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.832299715142953,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Pendulum",
       "affinity": 0.7823486333042297
      },
      {
       "name": "The Prodigy",
       "affinity": 0.7854128400261418
      },
      {
       "name": "Moguai",
       "affinity": 0.7893362675867204
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8344450034174555,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "David Guetta",
       "affinity": 0.883711242112496
      },
      {
       "name": "Calvin Harris",
       "affinity": 0.8722757842715364
      },
      {
       "name": "Example",
       "affinity": 0.870032364259281
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Top Gear USA",
       "affinity": 0.8402688019735147
      },
      {
       "name": "Running Wild with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.8409219360840852
      },
      {
       "name": "The Island with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.8463307089991857
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.861898511358829,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Hyperdrive",
       "affinity": 0.8984887536218936
      },
      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.8951930866699025
      },
      {
       "name": "SAS: Who Dares Wins",
       "affinity": 0.8797295610937816
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Knives Out",
       "affinity": 0.8322753271641657
      },
      {
       "name": "Richard Jewell",
       "affinity": 0.839002885959094
      },
      {
       "name": "The Peanut Butter Falcon",
       "affinity": 0.83981696947156
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8647886252850155,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum",
       "affinity": 0.9044462011637033
      },
      {
       "name": "Ford v Ferrari",
       "affinity": 0.9027772013696207
      },
      {
       "name": "Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw",
       "affinity": 0.8942082279394412
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Noah Kagan Presents",
       "affinity": 0.7213977586924019
      },
      {
       "name": "The Tony Robbins Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.740163694652641
      },
      {
       "name": "The Mike Dillard Show",
       "affinity": 0.7438461303866828
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.7680667205105116,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Joe Rogan Experience",
       "affinity": 0.8295648865332585
      },
      {
       "name": "The Tai Lopez Show",
       "affinity": 0.8139320576353011
      },
      {
       "name": "The GaryVee Audio Experience",
       "affinity": 0.8025659051819641
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8465550725421571,
   "domains[0].score": 0.81236913387113,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8777061177037968,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8717940715775916,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8243509670161102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.62,
    "female": -0.62,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.04,
    "35_to_44": 0.07,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": -0.64,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05
   },
   "value": 0.8710929231159943,
   "cosine": 0.7421858462319887,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.32,
    "female": -0.32,
    "25_to_29": 0.18,
    "30_to_34": 0.12,
    "35_to_44": 0.07,
    "45_to_54": -0.51,
    "55_and_older": -0.59,
    "24_and_younger": 0.29
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.01,
    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.51
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8047735128605162,
   "cosine": 0.6095470257210326
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8991093181469659,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
     "lon": -90.049,
     "buyer": 0.9168995581664985,
     "metro": "Memphis",
     "target": 0.98991985345953,
     "buyerRel": 0.018382928823719502,
     "targetRel": 0.09140322411675106
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.7982186362939319,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.9795637467798889,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.9749606382511943,
     "buyerRel": 0.10446112472283309,
     "targetRel": 0.09985801619413848
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.2565,
     "lon": -95.9345,
     "buyer": 0.9320263317139016,
     "metro": "Omaha",
     "target": 0.9759982846935712,
     "buyerRel": 0.061812645934653854,
     "targetRel": 0.10578459891432346
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.9802737173952585,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.9780272342692001,
     "buyerRel": 0.08051457770014148,
     "targetRel": 0.07826809457408312
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.9807976562454038,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.9875782678893517,
     "buyerRel": 0.06023799128701168,
     "targetRel": 0.06701860293095951
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.9607272859150928,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9900676939699086,
     "buyerRel": 0.04413724780614969,
     "targetRel": 0.07347765586096544
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.9816286046876824,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9861741584224529,
     "buyerRel": 0.05304300910658999,
     "targetRel": 0.05758856284136049
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.9752945243126018,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9922630385171581,
     "buyerRel": 0.04639099752475939,
     "targetRel": 0.06335951172931575
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.9701633276552362,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.991268304424779,
     "buyerRel": 0.036245461301631754,
     "targetRel": 0.05735043807117457
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 1,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5296261155151881,
   "correlation": 0.05925223103037629
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.056441450432653806,
   "value": 0.4905930915945577,
   "priorSd": 0.001050869151016424,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0.00769239699313351,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0.006563567984480434
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": -0.034857319857814484,
   "value": 0.4941904466903642
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Nike",
  "data": {
   "name": "Nike",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "independent",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "North America",
    "Europe",
    "Greater China",
    "Asia Pacific",
    "Latin America"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9999915241307996,
   "screenRank": 2,
   "foundedYear": 1964,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    300
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Nike, Inc.",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8907942834587187,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Adidas",
    "Puma",
    "Under Armour",
    "New Balance",
    "Reebok"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Kevin Durant",
    "Colin Kaepernick",
    "Anna Cockrell",
    "Daryl Homer",
    "Saroya Tinker"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Market-leading athletic brand providing high-performance gear across a wide range of price points for professional and amateur athletes."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 79.05518333285832,
   "points": {
    "m1": 31.177799921055154,
    "m2": 2.085308056872038,
    "m3": 16.64599430285906,
    "m4": 8.710929231159943,
    "m5": 17.98218636293932,
    "m6": 2.4529654579727884
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.54651629229
  }
 }
]