Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Red Bull → target #1 of 8

The North Face

Premium technical outdoor brand offering high-performance gear for both professional explorers and style-conscious urban consumers.

Founded 1968 · Parent: VF Corporation · Competes with Patagonia, Columbia Sportswear, Arc'teryx, Mammut · Partnerships: Gucci, Kaws, Supreme

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
83.5F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 83.5 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.91
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.32
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.86
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.96
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.96
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.51
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3531.9
Taste-profile overlap0.103.2
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.1
Demographic alignment0.109.6
Geographic footprint0.2019.2
Momentum0.052.6
F83.5

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Red Bull (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly The North Face’s audience embraces them.

Music0.77
Embraced: Netsky, Avicii, deadmau5 · Least shared: Fedde Le Grand, Benny Benassi, Steve Angello
TV0.92
Embraced: Running Wild with Bear Grylls, The Island with Bear Grylls, Naked and Afraid · Least shared: American Gladiators, The Challenge, The Ultimate Fighter
Film0.86
Embraced: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, First Man · Least shared: Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, 6 Underground, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
Podcasts0.87
Embraced: The Tim Ferriss Show, Aubrey Marcus Podcast, Jocko Podcast · Least shared: Wen Lambo Crypto Podcast, The Dropout Degree with Josh King Madrid, Dan Lok Show

Taste profile overlap

25 of 75 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
TravelelectronicHip HopTourist attractionfriendrockrapindie
Buyer only

Gazpacho, car, california, Tarta Tatin, heavy metal

The North Face only

Cheese Cake, japanese drama, folk, Park, live action adaptation

Audience shape

Red Bull (buyer) The North Face
-0.70-0.350.00+0.35+0.70≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.06 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: The North Face strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Memphis

Shared strongholds

Boise, Anchorage, Omaha, Tucson, Albuquerque, Louisville, Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City

Bull vs bear

9 of 10 claims survived the judge; 1 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Two-way audience affinity is strong: the audience affinity for The North Face is 0.911, above the shortlist average of 0.874, and the reverse affinity from Red Bull's side is identical at 0.911.

    t1-m1.value = 0.9109t1-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8743

  • Taste-profile overlap is a clear strength: 25 shared taste tags out of a 75-tag union, with a buyer top-20 missing share of 0.25 against a shortlist average of 0.4625, meaning Red Bull's top audience tags are largely present in the North Face audience profile.

    t1-m2.sharedCount = 25t1-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.25t1-m2.shortlistAverages.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.4625

  • Demographic alignment is high, with a cosine of 0.914 between buyer and target gender and age profiles against a shortlist average of 0.610, though the male skew is more pronounced in the Red Bull audience (0.62) than in the North Face audience (0.34).

    t1-m4.cosine = 0.9143t1-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.6095t1-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.34

  • Geographic footprint overlaps well: the regional correlation is 0.919 against a shortlist average of 0.059, and eight strongholds such as Salt Lake City and Tucson show both audiences over-indexing together, with Memphis identified as a white-space metro where the target is relatively stronger.

    t1-m5.correlation = 0.9186t1-m5.shortlistAverages.correlation = 0.05925t1-m5.whiteSpace[0].targetRel = 0.05906

  • Cross-domain agreement is strong across all four domains, with the TV domain scoring 0.922 and the film domain 0.861, and the shared audience affinities concentrating on adventure and endurance figures such as Bear Grylls programming at 0.970 affinity.

    t1-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9218t1-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8613t1-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.9699

    Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[2].score" = 0.8613 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8718)

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • The Music domain is the weakest of the target's cross-domain reads: the audience affinity score sits below the shortlist average, so the overlap with Red Bull's music-led audience is narrower than the headline score suggests. Read this as aggregate affinity, not a measure of customer behaviour.

    t1-m3.domains[0].score = 0.7729t1-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[0].score = 0.8124

  • The Film domain also trails the shortlist average, which weakens the claim that the two audiences share a broad cross-domain taste profile. The gap is small, but it is a weakness rather than a strength.

    t1-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8613t1-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[2].score = 0.8718

  • The aggregate gender skew is pronounced: the buyer audience over-indexes on male affinity far more than the target audience does, so a co-brand could tilt toward one segment and leave the other under-served. This is a demographic affinity gap, not evidence of who buys.

    t1-m4.buyer.male = 0.62t1-m4.target.male = 0.34

  • The target audience under-indexes more strongly on the 55-and-older bucket than the buyer audience does, which limits how far the pairing reaches into older segments.

    t1-m4.target.55_and_older = -0.7t1-m4.buyer.55_and_older = -0.64

  • Geographic overlap is thin in at least one metro: Memphis is the single white-space metro, where the buyer's relative footprint is far smaller than the target's, so a joint launch there would rest on the target's presence alone.

    t1-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 1t1-m5.whiteSpace[0].buyerRel = 0.01838

IC memo

Number check passed: 21 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

The North Face: ADVANCE

Recommendation. ADVANCE, ranked 1 of 8. The verdict rule was met: composite F of 83.5 clears the 67 threshold and no red flags were recorded. Treat this as a discovery-stage candidate, not a commitment.

Where the audiences meet

  • Two-way audience affinity is 0.91 from both sides, above the shortlist average of 0.87.
  • Taste overlap is strong: 25 shared tags out of a 75-tag union. The buyer's top-20 missing share is 0.25, against a shortlist average of 0.46. In aggregate, Red Bull's top audience tags are largely present in The North Face profile.
  • Demographic cosine is 0.91, against a shortlist average of 0.61.
  • Regional correlation is 0.92, against a shortlist average of 0.06. Eight strongholds, including Salt Lake City and Tucson, show both audiences over-indexing together.

Risks

  • The Music and Film domain reads trail the shortlist average. The headline overlap is narrower than the score suggests.
  • The aggregate gender skew is pronounced. The Red Bull audience over-indexes on male affinity (0.62) far more than the target does (0.34), so a co-brand could tilt toward one segment.
  • Both audiences under-index on the 55-and-older bucket, and the target does so more strongly (-0.70 against -0.64). This limits reach into older segments.
  • Memphis is the only white-space metro. A launch there would rest on the target's presence alone.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot show on the music- and film-led audience tags where the read is weakest?
  • How would a joint product line handle the male skew, and does it serve the female and 55-plus segments?
  • Should Memphis be tested separately before any joint launch there?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok15 of 15 candidates scoredlive 78 ms
/v2/insightsok15 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 109 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 582 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 612 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 984 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 2269 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3481 ms
/v2/insightsok11060 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3602 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 303 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 986 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 1183 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 1258 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 1445 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 2043 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 2240 ms
/v2/insightsok11352 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 6042 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 12461 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t1-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9108610325022669,
   "b": 0.9108610325022669,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.9108610325022669,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "409FAF5A-BC5F-4DC3-943D-E3B5F20B471D",
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "affinity": 0.9108610325022669
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8742664278855332,
   "b": 0.8742664278855332,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8742664278855332
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.3171487603305784,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:travel",
     "name": "Travel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:indie",
     "name": "indie",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:gazpacho",
     "name": "Gazpacho",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:california",
     "name": "california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tarta_tatin",
     "name": "Tarta Tatin",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:heavy_metal",
     "name": "heavy  metal",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:cheese_cake",
     "name": "Cheese Cake",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:japanese_drama",
     "name": "japanese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:folk",
     "name": "folk",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:park",
     "name": "Park",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:live_action_adaptation",
     "name": "live action adaptation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 75,
   "sharedCount": 25,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.25
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.1904880193092421,
   "sharedCount": 17.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4625000000000001
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8570241830326184,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Fedde Le Grand",
       "affinity": 0.6864127290073424
      },
      {
       "name": "Benny Benassi",
       "affinity": 0.7140076891302695
      },
      {
       "name": "Steve Angello",
       "affinity": 0.7320677778706699
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.7729058181090224,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Netsky",
       "affinity": 0.8308386460798928
      },
      {
       "name": "Avicii",
       "affinity": 0.8203645779849245
      },
      {
       "name": "deadmau5",
       "affinity": 0.8101560206665879
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.8871286516235508
      },
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.8923288687043059
      },
      {
       "name": "The Ultimate Fighter",
       "affinity": 0.8981965981583349
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9218145872840305,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Running Wild with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.9699443977028107
      },
      {
       "name": "The Island with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.9623217853814074
      },
      {
       "name": "Naked and Afraid",
       "affinity": 0.9609283002994122
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw",
       "affinity": 0.7691234507583792
      },
      {
       "name": "6 Underground",
       "affinity": 0.8036803490748665
      },
      {
       "name": "John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum",
       "affinity": 0.8065976398417124
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8612795216994173,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Dawn Wall",
       "affinity": 0.9619917563016005
      },
      {
       "name": "Free Solo",
       "affinity": 0.9598298042775792
      },
      {
       "name": "First Man",
       "affinity": 0.8975047574575437
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Wen Lambo Crypto Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.7989338368070701
      },
      {
       "name": "The Dropout Degree with Josh King Madrid",
       "affinity": 0.8242288939570749
      },
      {
       "name": "Dan Lok Show",
       "affinity": 0.8358921351650241
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8720968050380032,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Tim Ferriss Show",
       "affinity": 0.9429082921068939
      },
      {
       "name": "Aubrey Marcus Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9162235632352688
      },
      {
       "name": "Jocko Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9038908096567235
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8465550725421571,
   "domains[0].score": 0.81236913387113,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8777061177037968,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8717940715775916,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8243509670161102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.62,
    "female": -0.62,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.04,
    "35_to_44": 0.07,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": -0.64,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05
   },
   "value": 0.9571264729178476,
   "cosine": 0.9142529458356952,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.34,
    "female": -0.34,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": 0.07,
    "35_to_44": 0.01,
    "45_to_54": 0.19,
    "55_and_older": -0.7000000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": 0.12
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.62,
    "bucket": "male",
    "target": 0.34
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8047735128605162,
   "cosine": 0.6095470257210326
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.9592971894007942,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
     "lon": -90.049,
     "buyer": 0.9168995581664985,
     "metro": "Memphis",
     "target": 0.9575746318463637,
     "buyerRel": 0.018382928823719502,
     "targetRel": 0.05905800250358473
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.9185943788015885,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.9795637467798889,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.9873273108849752,
     "buyerRel": 0.10446112472283309,
     "targetRel": 0.11222468882791936
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.9802737173952585,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.980182199372267,
     "buyerRel": 0.08051457770014148,
     "targetRel": 0.08042305967715002
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.2565,
     "lon": -95.9345,
     "buyer": 0.9320263317139016,
     "metro": "Omaha",
     "target": 0.9688483565448944,
     "buyerRel": 0.061812645934653854,
     "targetRel": 0.09863467076564669
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.9807976562454038,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.992259410747558,
     "buyerRel": 0.06023799128701168,
     "targetRel": 0.07169974578916583
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.9816286046876824,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9891837982759634,
     "buyerRel": 0.05304300910658999,
     "targetRel": 0.06059820269487093
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.9607272859150928,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9807094198068006,
     "buyerRel": 0.04413724780614969,
     "targetRel": 0.06411938169785747
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.9752945243126018,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9814825192715251,
     "buyerRel": 0.04639099752475939,
     "targetRel": 0.052578992483682696
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7608,
     "lon": -111.891,
     "buyer": 0.9945142527870496,
     "metro": "Salt Lake City",
     "target": 0.9965662289904885,
     "buyerRel": 0.04605769248067082,
     "targetRel": 0.04810966868410971
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 1,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5296261155151881,
   "correlation": 0.05925223103037629
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.06311249860199153,
   "value": 0.5105187497669986,
   "priorSd": 0.0010767168572649404,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0.3067663085384602,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0.30802855851050004
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": -0.034857319857814484,
   "value": 0.4941904466903642
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: The North Face",
  "data": {
   "name": "The North Face",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Canada",
    "Europe",
    "China",
    "Japan"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9972453425098744,
   "screenRank": 1,
   "foundedYear": 1968,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    30,
    900
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "VF Corporation",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9108610325022669,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Patagonia",
    "Columbia Sportswear",
    "Arc'teryx",
    "Mammut",
    "Mountain Hardwear"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Gucci",
    "Kaws",
    "Supreme",
    "Brain Dead",
    "Jil Sander"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium technical outdoor brand offering high-performance gear for both professional explorers and style-conscious urban consumers."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t1-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 83.50190966756685,
   "points": {
    "m1": 31.880136137579342,
    "m2": 3.1714876033057844,
    "m3": 17.140483660652368,
    "m4": 9.571264729178475,
    "m5": 19.185943788015884,
    "m6": 2.552593748834993
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.54651629229
  }
 }
]