Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Red Bull → target #4 of 8

Under Armour

A mid-market performance athletic brand known for technical innovation and moisture-wicking materials.

Founded 1996 · Parent: Under Armour, Inc. · Competes with Nike, Adidas, Puma, Reebok · Partnerships: Curry Brand, Bryce Harper, Dwayne Johnson

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
76.1F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 76.1 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.86
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.25
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.85
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.88
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.77
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.48
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3530.1
Taste-profile overlap0.102.5
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.0
Demographic alignment0.108.8
Geographic footprint0.2015.3
Momentum0.052.4
F76.1

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Red Bull (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Under Armour’s audience embraces them.

Music0.79
Embraced: deadmau5, Swedish House Mafia, David Guetta · Least shared: Pendulum, Netsky, Moguai
TV0.89
Embraced: The Challenge, American Gladiators, The Ultimate Fighter · Least shared: The Island with Bear Grylls, Running Wild with Bear Grylls, Junkyard Wars
Film0.90
Embraced: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, El Camino · Least shared: Knives Out, Tenet, 6 Underground
Podcasts0.82
Embraced: Jocko Podcast, The Tai Lopez Show, The Art of Charm · Least shared: The Tony Robbins Podcast, Wen Lambo Crypto Podcast, Noah Kagan Presents

Taste profile overlap

22 of 78 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hopelectronicrapfriendrockhouseheavy metalmale protagonist
Buyer only

Travel, Gazpacho, Tourist attraction, Techno, vomiting

Under Armour only

Golf course, Lobster Pasta, country, Golf club, mixed martial arts

Audience shape

Red Bull (buyer) Under Armour
-0.70-0.350.00+0.35+0.70≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.11 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Under Armour strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Memphis, Raleigh

Shared strongholds

Boise, Omaha, Anchorage, Tucson, Louisville, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Nashville

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The composite fit score is 76.10, above the shortlist average of 70.55, with full data coverage across all six measures.

    t6-score.F = 76.1t6-score.shortlistAverages.F = 70.55
  • Taste-profile overlap is a strength: 22 shared taste tags, against a shortlist average of 17.75, with a shared-tag overlap value of 0.249 versus 0.190 for the shortlist.

    t6-m2.sharedCount = 22t6-m2.shortlistAverages.sharedCount = 17.75t6-m2.value = 0.2488
  • Cross-domain agreement is strong at 0.848 against a shortlist average of 0.847. The audience shows aggregate affinity clustering across music, TV, film and podcasts, with the TV domain score of 0.889 above its shortlist average of 0.878.

    t6-m3.value = 0.8482t6-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8893t6-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[1].score = 0.8777
  • Geographic footprint is a strength: aggregate audience correlation between the two brands across metros is 0.534 versus a shortlist average of 0.059, and two metros (Memphis and Raleigh) show whitespace where the target's relative affinity exceeds the buyer's.

    t6-m5.correlation = 0.5345t6-m5.shortlistAverages.correlation = 0.05925t6-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 2
  • Demographic alignment is strong: the cosine similarity of the buyer and target age-gender profiles is 0.764 against a shortlist average of 0.610, though the 30-to-34 bucket is a visible gap to manage in co-brand targeting.

    t6-m4.cosine = 0.7643t6-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.6095

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Two-way audience affinity between Red Bull and Under Armour is 0.859, below the shortlist average of 0.874, so the mutual pull is weaker than typical for this shortlist.

    t6-m1.value = 0.8592t6-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8743
  • Momentum is flat-to-soft: the z-score of -0.105 sits below the shortlist average of -0.035, and the momentum value of 0.482 trails the shortlist average of 0.494, so the aggregate audience signal is not strengthening.

    t6-m6.z = -0.1054t6-m6.value = 0.4824
  • The Under Armour audience over-indexes on the 30 to 34 bucket at -0.70 against Red Bull's 0.04, the largest demographic gap in the pack, so the aggregate age profiles diverge sharply even though the overall demographic cosine reads as a strength.

    t6-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.7t6-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.04
  • Taste-profile overlap is thin on the buyer side: 35% of Red Bull's top-20 taste tags are missing from the Under Armour profile, and only 22 tags are shared out of a union of 78, so a co-brand would rest on a narrow common ground in aggregate taste.

    t6-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35t6-m2.sharedCount = 22

    Rejected by the judge: cites m2 Taste-profile overlap "buyerTop20MissingShare" = 0.35 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.4625)

  • The Under Armour entity profile lists Red Bull as its only driver and shows no shared categories, and the code raised no red flags, so the remaining bear case rests on diligence: confirm the affinity is not an artefact of a single driver before underwriting the composite of 76.1.

    t6-profile.drivers[0].score = 1t6-score.F = 76.1

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 76.1026 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (70.5465)

IC memo

Number check passed: 26 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Under Armour: ADVANCE

Recommendation. Advance Under Armour to the next stage of the Red Bull sneaker collaboration screen. The verdict rule was met: the composite fit score is 76.1, above the 67 threshold, and no red flags were raised. It ranks 4 of 8 on the shortlist.

Where the audiences meet. The strongest evidence is geographic and taste-based:

  • Aggregate audience correlation across metros is 0.534, against a shortlist average of 0.059.
  • Two metros, Memphis and Raleigh, show whitespace where the target's relative affinity exceeds the buyer's.
  • The audience shows 22 shared taste tags, against a shortlist average of 17.75. Shared tags sit mainly in music (hip hop, rap, electronic, rock).
  • Cross-domain agreement is 0.848, in line with the shortlist average of 0.847. The TV domain score of 0.889 is above its shortlist average of 0.878.
  • Demographic cosine similarity is 0.764, against a shortlist average of 0.610.

Risks.

  • Two-way audience affinity is 0.859, below the shortlist average of 0.874. The mutual pull is weaker than typical for this shortlist.
  • Momentum is flat-to-soft. The z-score is -0.105, below the shortlist average of -0.035, and the momentum value of 0.482 trails the average of 0.494.
  • The age profiles diverge sharply. The Under Armour audience over-indexes on the 30 to 34 bucket at -0.70, against 0.04 for Red Bull. This is the largest demographic gap in the pack, even though the overall demographic cosine reads as a strength.
  • No red flags were raised.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot show about mutual affinity, given the two-way score sits below the shortlist average?
  • Is the flat-to-soft momentum signal stable enough to support a launch timeline?
  • How would co-brand targeting address the 30 to 34 gap, and does creative or channel planning need to account for it?
  • Which Memphis and Raleigh whitespace markets justify a regional test first?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok15 of 15 candidates scoredlive 78 ms
/v2/insightsok15 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 109 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 582 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 612 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 984 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 2269 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3481 ms
/v2/insightsok11060 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3602 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 303 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok10097 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 10952 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 11241 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 11503 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 11842 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 11968 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 12186 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t6-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8591921533745354,
   "b": 0.8591921533745354,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8591921533745354,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "409FAF5A-BC5F-4DC3-943D-E3B5F20B471D",
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "affinity": 0.8591921533745354
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8742664278855332,
   "b": 0.8742664278855332,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8742664278855332
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.248775710088149,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
     "name": "house",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:heavy_metal",
     "name": "heavy  metal",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:male_protagonist",
     "name": "male protagonist",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:travel",
     "name": "Travel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:gazpacho",
     "name": "Gazpacho",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:techno",
     "name": "Techno",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:vomiting",
     "name": "vomiting",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:golf_course",
     "name": "Golf course",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:lobster_pasta",
     "name": "Lobster Pasta",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:golf_club",
     "name": "Golf club",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mixed_martial_arts",
     "name": "mixed martial arts",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 78,
   "sharedCount": 22,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.1904880193092421,
   "sharedCount": 17.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4625000000000001
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8482330780774963,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Pendulum",
       "affinity": 0.7600978764366796
      },
      {
       "name": "Netsky",
       "affinity": 0.7609651055120903
      },
      {
       "name": "Moguai",
       "affinity": 0.7622483153539964
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.7881155427626361,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "deadmau5",
       "affinity": 0.8127738205771223
      },
      {
       "name": "Swedish House Mafia",
       "affinity": 0.8083724347678768
      },
      {
       "name": "David Guetta",
       "affinity": 0.8032978827465742
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Island with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.8623297079071572
      },
      {
       "name": "Running Wild with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.8678476493171938
      },
      {
       "name": "Junkyard Wars",
       "affinity": 0.8686921944974059
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.889320169023722,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Challenge",
       "affinity": 0.9198661609416346
      },
      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.9196785540620113
      },
      {
       "name": "The Ultimate Fighter",
       "affinity": 0.9196388868375238
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Knives Out",
       "affinity": 0.8705784160962662
      },
      {
       "name": "Tenet",
       "affinity": 0.8740596605879288
      },
      {
       "name": "6 Underground",
       "affinity": 0.8741959041731391
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8975440781845908,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ford v Ferrari",
       "affinity": 0.9303395344628571
      },
      {
       "name": "The Irishman",
       "affinity": 0.9184351724486993
      },
      {
       "name": "El Camino",
       "affinity": 0.9181375436876243
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Tony Robbins Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.7731947344035163
      },
      {
       "name": "Wen Lambo Crypto Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.7810336384366006
      },
      {
       "name": "Noah Kagan Presents",
       "affinity": 0.7872003385112006
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8179525223390358,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Jocko Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8791791302527285
      },
      {
       "name": "The Tai Lopez Show",
       "affinity": 0.8403747665222232
      },
      {
       "name": "The Art of Charm",
       "affinity": 0.8401371424803873
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[0].score": 0.81236913387113,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8777061177037968,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8717940715775916,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8243509670161102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.62,
    "female": -0.62,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.04,
    "35_to_44": 0.07,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": -0.64,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05
   },
   "value": 0.882153948370878,
   "cosine": 0.7643078967417561,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.5,
    "female": -0.5,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": 0.34,
    "45_to_54": 0.07,
    "55_and_older": -0.66,
    "24_and_younger": -0.04
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.04,
    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": -0.7000000000000001
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8047735128605162,
   "cosine": 0.6095470257210326
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.7672388365952688,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 35.1495,
     "lon": -90.049,
     "buyer": 0.9168995581664985,
     "metro": "Memphis",
     "target": 0.9593520172099206,
     "buyerRel": 0.018382928823719502,
     "targetRel": 0.0608353878671416
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.7796,
     "lon": -78.6382,
     "buyer": 0.9718596145906949,
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     "target": 0.9832656715139809,
     "buyerRel": 0.020182407840855787,
     "targetRel": 0.03158846476414179
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.5344776731905376,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
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     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.918905648766176,
     "buyerRel": 0.10446112472283309,
     "targetRel": 0.043803026709120174
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.2565,
     "lon": -95.9345,
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     "metro": "Omaha",
     "target": 0.9338576056575101,
     "buyerRel": 0.061812645934653854,
     "targetRel": 0.06364391987826234
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
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     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.9424700024148152,
     "buyerRel": 0.08051457770014148,
     "targetRel": 0.04271086271969815
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.9807976562454038,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.9520390324907239,
     "buyerRel": 0.06023799128701168,
     "targetRel": 0.031479367532331715
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.9607272859150928,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9624618467785476,
     "buyerRel": 0.04413724780614969,
     "targetRel": 0.0458718086696045
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.9752945243126018,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9659330478738503,
     "buyerRel": 0.04639099752475939,
     "targetRel": 0.03702952108600788
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.0997,
     "lon": -94.5786,
     "buyer": 0.975555364516625,
     "metro": "Kansas City",
     "target": 0.9767022794771445,
     "buyerRel": 0.037230700049361576,
     "targetRel": 0.03837761500988113
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.9701633276552362,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.9697365612608236,
     "buyerRel": 0.036245461301631754,
     "targetRel": 0.03581869490721923
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 2,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5296261155151881,
   "correlation": 0.05925223103037629
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.10541548568213654,
   "value": 0.48243075238631056,
   "priorSd": 0.0018978977711527165,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0.8076118792237077,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0.805503569510065
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": -0.034857319857814484,
   "value": 0.4941904466903642
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Under Armour",
  "data": {
   "name": "Under Armour",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "independent",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Canada",
    "China",
    "United Kingdom",
    "Japan"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9985421504975335,
   "screenRank": 6,
   "foundedYear": 1996,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    20,
    180
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Under Armour, Inc.",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8591921533745354,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Nike",
    "Adidas",
    "Puma",
    "Reebok",
    "New Balance"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Curry Brand",
    "Bryce Harper",
    "Dwayne Johnson"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "A mid-market performance athletic brand known for technical innovation and moisture-wicking materials."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 76.10261400808587,
   "points": {
    "m1": 30.071725368108737,
    "m2": 2.48775710088149,
    "m3": 16.964661561549924,
    "m4": 8.82153948370878,
    "m5": 15.344776731905377,
    "m6": 2.412153761931553
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.54651629229
  }
 }
]