Licensing / co-brand · Red Bull → target #7 of 8
Puma
Mass-market performance and lifestyle sports brand competing on technical innovation and cultural collaborations.
Founded 1948 · Parent: Puma SE · Competes with Nike, Adidas, Reebok, Under Armour · Partnerships: Scuderia Ferrari, Manchester City FC, A$AP Rocky
Corporate details are Qloo entity data.
Why this verdict
F 60.4 < 62 and 1 red flags.
- NO_GEO_OVERLAP: m5 < 0.2 (licensing deals only) (observed m5 0.04)
Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.
Six audience metrics
Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.
How F is built
Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).
| Metric | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Two-way audience affinity | 0.35 | 30.4 |
| Taste-profile overlap | 0.10 | 1.5 |
| Cross-domain agreement | 0.20 | 17.0 |
| Demographic alignment | 0.10 | 8.1 |
| Geographic footprint | 0.20 | 0.9 |
| Momentum | 0.05 | 2.5 |
| F | 60.4 |
Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Red Bull (1.00).
Where the audiences meet, across culture
The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Puma’s audience embraces them.
Taste profile overlap
16 of 84 top taste tags shared.
Travel, Gazpacho, Tourist attraction, california, Techno
Banana Bread, chinese drama, teenager, murder, love
Audience shape
Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.
Momentum
z = -0.03 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).
Footprint overlap for distribution
Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, DC, Boston
none
Bull vs bear
8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.Bull: for the deal
Aggregate taste-graph cross-domain agreement is a strength: the audience's affinity for Puma's cross-domain profile is strong across music, TV, film and podcasts, with the cross-domain agreement value above the shortlist average.
t5-m3.value = 0.8488t5-m3.domains[0].score = 0.838t5-m3.domains[2].score = 0.8871The demographic profile is a strength: the audience over-indexes on the 25-to-34 age band and male skew, and demographic alignment with the shortlist is above average, with cosine similarity of 0.6256.
t5-m4.value = 0.8128t5-m4.cosine = 0.6256t5-m4.target.30_to_34 = 0.31Puma's audience momentum is a strength: the momentum z-score sits above the shortlist average, indicating a stable or slightly rising aggregate affinity trend.
t5-m6.z = -0.02598t5-m6.value = 0.4957The taste overlap has a bright spot: buyer-side top-20 missing share is lower than the shortlist average, meaning the Red Bull audience's top interests are more often present in Puma's taste profile than typical shortlist pairings.
t5-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.45t5-m2.shortlistAverages.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.4625The geographic footprint flag is a real concern, but the audience overlap is strongest in dense metros: the code flags low geographic overlap, yet the 14 white-space metros indicate limited regional overlap that a co-brand could target as a growth lever rather than a reason to reject the deal outright.
NO_GEO_OVERLAPt5-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 14t5-m5.metroCount = 55
Bear: against, or diligence first
The code raised NO_GEO_OVERLAP: the two brands' metro footprints barely overlap (m5 0.043), and the audience over-indexes on Red Bull relative to Puma in 14 white-space metros, so a licensing deal would lack a shared geographic base to activate in.
NO_GEO_OVERLAPt5-flags.flags[0].m5 = 0.04313t5-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 14t5-m5.correlation = -0.9137Taste-profile overlap is thin: only 16 shared tags out of 84 in the union (m2 0.154), below the shortlist average of 17.75 shared tags and 0.190 overlap.
t5-m2.value = 0.1538t5-m2.sharedCount = 16t5-m2.unionCount = 84The two-way audience affinity of 0.868 sits below the shortlist average of 0.874, so the mutual pull between the brands is weaker than typical for alternatives considered.
t5-m1.value = 0.8681t5-m1.value = 0.8743Geographic correlation is strongly negative (-0.91) and the audience reads as a weakness against the shortlist average (0.059), indicating the places where Red Bull's audience is strongest are not where Puma's is.
NO_GEO_OVERLAPt5-m5.correlation = -0.9137t5-m5.correlation = 0.05925Rejected by the judge: cited 0.0593 for m5 Geographic footprint "correlation", but the ledger says -0.9137
The composite F of 60.37 trails the shortlist average of 70.55, and the deal is weaker on geography and audience overlap; diligence should test whether the demographic and cross-domain fit justify proceeding despite these gaps.
t5-score.F = 60.37t5-score.F = 70.55Rejected by the judge: cited 70.5465 for Composite score "F", but the ledger says 60.3668
Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target
Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.
| Purpose | Endpoint | Status | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /v2/insights | ok | 15 of 15 candidates scored | live 78 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 15 profile(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | demographics for 9 of 9 entities | live 109 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | live 582 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended tv_show(s) | live 612 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended podcast(s) | live 984 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended movie(s) | live 2269 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 recommended artist(s) | live 3481 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 11060 heatmap cell(s) in United States | live 3602 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | cache | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 303 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 331 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 331 ms | |
| /v2/trending | ok | 47 trend point(s) | live 332 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 50 taste tag(s) | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 8245 heatmap cell(s) in United States | cache | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 1 of 1 candidates scored | live 4954 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 5751 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 6055 ms | |
| /v2/analysis/compare | ok | 0 shared catalogue tag(s) | live 6195 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 6526 ms | |
| /v2/insights | ok | 25 of 25 candidates scored | live 6732 ms |
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
{
"id": "t5-flags",
"label": "Red flags (code rules)",
"data": {
"flags": [
{
"m5": 0.04312633316543574,
"flag": "NO_GEO_OVERLAP",
"rule": "m5 < 0.2 (licensing deals only)"
}
]
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t5-m1",
"label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
"data": {
"a": 0.8680951667634365,
"b": 0.8680951667634365,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.8680951667634365,
"reverse": [
{
"id": "409FAF5A-BC5F-4DC3-943D-E3B5F20B471D",
"name": "Red Bull",
"affinity": 0.8680951667634365
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"a": 0.8742664278855332,
"b": 0.8742664278855332,
"ratio": 1,
"value": 0.8742664278855332
}
},
{
"id": "t5-m2",
"label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
"data": {
"value": 0.15384615384615385,
"shared": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:hotel",
"name": "Hotel",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
"name": "Hip Hop",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
"name": "rap",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
"name": "electronic",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
"name": "friend",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
"name": "rock",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:house",
"name": "house",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:trap",
"name": "trap",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"coverage": 1,
"buyerOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:media:travel",
"name": "Travel",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:gazpacho",
"name": "Gazpacho",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
"name": "Tourist attraction",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:california",
"name": "california",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:genre:music:techno",
"name": "Techno",
"subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
}
],
"targetOnly": [
{
"id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:banana_bread",
"name": "Banana Bread",
"subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:chinese_drama",
"name": "chinese drama",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenager",
"name": "teenager",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:murder",
"name": "murder",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
},
{
"id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:love",
"name": "love",
"subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
}
],
"unionCount": 84,
"sharedCount": 16,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.45
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.1904880193092421,
"sharedCount": 17.75,
"buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4625000000000001
}
},
{
"id": "t5-m3",
"label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
"data": {
"value": 0.8488041221774685,
"domains": [
{
"type": "urn:entity:artist",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Pendulum",
"affinity": 0.7696522811022056
},
{
"name": "The Prodigy",
"affinity": 0.7698962033416108
},
{
"name": "nero",
"affinity": 0.7996004290818258
}
],
"label": "Music",
"score": 0.8379607379294065,
"shared": [
{
"name": "David Guetta",
"affinity": 0.8939962355947982
},
{
"name": "Calvin Harris",
"affinity": 0.8923920201136147
},
{
"name": "Tiësto",
"affinity": 0.877879652241162
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Naked and Afraid",
"affinity": 0.8350763579087207
},
{
"name": "Naked and Afraid XL",
"affinity": 0.8370202362787484
},
{
"name": "Ride with Norman Reedus",
"affinity": 0.8373677075033595
}
],
"label": "TV",
"score": 0.8579759098389887,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Hyperdrive",
"affinity": 0.8997290167234931
},
{
"name": "Race Across the World",
"affinity": 0.8881896274165164
},
{
"name": "SAS: Who Dares Wins",
"affinity": 0.8880261059077736
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:movie",
"clash": [
{
"name": "The Dawn Wall",
"affinity": 0.8337054344844423
},
{
"name": "Free Solo",
"affinity": 0.8516158102068995
},
{
"name": "Papillon",
"affinity": 0.8619992874950547
}
],
"label": "Film",
"score": 0.8871081579223348,
"shared": [
{
"name": "Ford v Ferrari",
"affinity": 0.9288269457646375
},
{
"name": "Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw",
"affinity": 0.9263703383783688
},
{
"name": "John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum",
"affinity": 0.922668905734087
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
},
{
"type": "urn:entity:podcast",
"clash": [
{
"name": "Noah Kagan Presents",
"affinity": 0.749569077871947
},
{
"name": "The Kevin Rose Show",
"affinity": 0.7544615452880129
},
{
"name": "Wealthy Way",
"affinity": 0.7781809495462427
}
],
"label": "Podcasts",
"score": 0.8121716830191439,
"shared": [
{
"name": "The Tai Lopez Show",
"affinity": 0.8731702972444667
},
{
"name": "The Joe Rogan Experience",
"affinity": 0.8457233924446868
},
{
"name": "The GaryVee Audio Experience",
"affinity": 0.8438780148740922
}
],
"expected": 25,
"returned": 25
}
],
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8465550725421571,
"domains[0].score": 0.81236913387113,
"domains[1].score": 0.8777061177037968,
"domains[2].score": 0.8717940715775916,
"domains[3].score": 0.8243509670161102
}
},
{
"id": "t5-m4",
"label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
"data": {
"buyer": {
"male": 0.62,
"female": -0.62,
"25_to_29": -0.03,
"30_to_34": 0.04,
"35_to_44": 0.07,
"45_to_54": 0.01,
"55_and_older": -0.64,
"24_and_younger": 0.05
},
"value": 0.8128050101197185,
"cosine": 0.625610020239437,
"target": {
"male": 0.19,
"female": -0.19,
"25_to_29": 0.2,
"30_to_34": 0.31,
"35_to_44": 0.03,
"45_to_54": -0.49,
"55_and_older": -0.56,
"24_and_younger": 0.16
},
"coverage": 1,
"biggestGap": {
"buyer": 0.01,
"bucket": "45_to_54",
"target": -0.49
}
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.8047735128605162,
"cosine": 0.6095470257210326
}
},
{
"id": "t5-m5",
"label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
"data": {
"value": 0.04312633316543574,
"coverage": 1,
"metroCount": 55,
"whiteSpace": [
{
"lat": 34.0522,
"lon": -118.2437,
"buyer": 0.9945263438831847,
"metro": "Los Angeles",
"target": 0.9803180571024303,
"buyerRel": 0.008230511741984414,
"targetRel": -0.005977775038770061
},
{
"lat": 40.7128,
"lon": -74.006,
"buyer": 0.9938338170838814,
"metro": "New York",
"target": 0.9824706082797211,
"buyerRel": 0.005304710247738709,
"targetRel": -0.006058498556421599
},
{
"lat": 33.749,
"lon": -84.388,
"buyer": 0.982366669246253,
"metro": "Atlanta",
"target": 0.9661375105213619,
"buyerRel": 0.005394304038942588,
"targetRel": -0.01083485468594858
},
{
"lat": 41.8781,
"lon": -87.6298,
"buyer": 0.9904054357984292,
"metro": "Chicago",
"target": 0.9706984956187071,
"buyerRel": 0.007545504960417282,
"targetRel": -0.012161435219304795
},
{
"lat": 25.7617,
"lon": -80.1918,
"buyer": 0.9941335403646854,
"metro": "Miami",
"target": 0.9687955897510883,
"buyerRel": 0.013097057976390936,
"targetRel": -0.01224089263720618
},
{
"lat": 39.9526,
"lon": -75.1652,
"buyer": 0.9902570471007516,
"metro": "Philadelphia",
"target": 0.9676256556848055,
"buyerRel": 0.009048091380870704,
"targetRel": -0.013583300035075352
},
{
"lat": 38.9072,
"lon": -77.0369,
"buyer": 0.9832977502211661,
"metro": "Washington, DC",
"target": 0.9574118280884025,
"buyerRel": 0.007826395671971298,
"targetRel": -0.01805952646079223
},
{
"lat": 42.3601,
"lon": -71.0589,
"buyer": 0.9833822627003668,
"metro": "Boston",
"target": 0.9638577208396526,
"buyerRel": 0.0003520029893324672,
"targetRel": -0.019172538871381706
}
],
"correlation": -0.9137473336691285,
"strongholds": [],
"whiteSpaceCount": 14,
"relativeToCohort": true
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"value": 0.5296261155151881,
"correlation": 0.05925223103037629
}
},
{
"id": "t5-m6",
"label": "m6 Momentum",
"data": {
"z": -0.025980873981490404,
"value": 0.49566985433641825,
"priorSd": 0.0004233064911459226,
"coverage": 1,
"priorMean": -0.2215004008178867,
"normalised": true,
"recentMean": -0.2220200182975165
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"z": -0.034857319857814484,
"value": 0.4941904466903642
}
},
{
"id": "t5-profile",
"label": "Qloo entity profile: Puma",
"data": {
"name": "Puma",
"drivers": [
{
"name": "Red Bull",
"score": 1
}
],
"ownership": "independent",
"keyMarkets": [
"Europe",
"North America",
"Asia-Pacific",
"Latin America"
],
"popularity": 0.9990930819955587,
"screenRank": 5,
"foundedYear": 1948,
"priceRangeUsd": [
25,
250
],
"ultimateParent": "Puma SE",
"forwardAffinity": 0.8680951667634365,
"competitorBrands": [
"Nike",
"Adidas",
"Reebok",
"Under Armour",
"New Balance"
],
"sharedCategories": [],
"knownPartnerships": [
"Scuderia Ferrari",
"Manchester City FC",
"A$AP Rocky",
"Salehe Bembury",
"Formula 1"
],
"marketPositioning": "Mass-market performance and lifestyle sports brand competing on technical innovation and cultural collaborations."
},
"shortlistAverages": {}
},
{
"id": "t5-score",
"label": "Composite score",
"data": {
"F": 60.36680085491917,
"points": {
"m1": 30.383330836720276,
"m2": 1.5384615384615385,
"m3": 16.97608244354937,
"m4": 8.128050101197186,
"m5": 0.8625266633087147,
"m6": 2.478349271682091
},
"coverage": 1
},
"shortlistAverages": {
"F": 70.54651629229
}
}
]