Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Red Bull → target #6 of 8

Adidas

Premium global athletic brand offering performance and lifestyle products for both athletes and casual consumers.

Founded 1924 · Parent: Adidas AG · Competes with Nike, Puma, Under Armour, Reebok · Partnerships: Kanye West, Pharrell Williams, FIFA

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
65.0F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 65.0 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.88
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.18
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.86
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.83
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.22
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.50
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3530.8
Taste-profile overlap0.101.8
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.3
Demographic alignment0.108.3
Geographic footprint0.204.4
Momentum0.052.5
F65.0

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Red Bull (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Adidas’s audience embraces them.

Music0.83
Embraced: David Guetta, Calvin Harris, Tiësto · Least shared: Moguai, Wolfgang Gartner, Pendulum
TV0.87
Embraced: Hyperdrive, American Gladiators, SAS: Who Dares Wins · Least shared: Running Wild with Bear Grylls, Top Gear USA, The Island with Bear Grylls
Film0.90
Embraced: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, El Camino · Least shared: The Dawn Wall, Free Solo, First Man
Podcasts0.87
Embraced: The Tai Lopez Show, The GaryVee Audio Experience, Dan Lok Show · Least shared: Noah Kagan Presents, Aubrey Marcus Podcast, The Kevin Rose Show

Taste profile overlap

17 of 83 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
HotelHip HoprapelectronicfriendrockBarSports
Buyer only

Travel, Gazpacho, car, Tourist attraction, california

Adidas only

Pudim, argentina, violence, love, teenager

Audience shape

Red Bull (buyer) Adidas
-0.64-0.320.00+0.32+0.64≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.00 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Adidas strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Chicago, Miami, New York, Los Angeles, Houston, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Dallas

Shared strongholds

Portland, Seattle

Bull vs bear

10 of 10 claims survived the judge; 0 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The audience over-indexes on the Red Bull–Adidas pairing: two-way audience affinity is 0.8798, a strength against the shortlist average of 0.8743, and Red Bull is the top reverse affinity match.

    t4-m1.value = 0.8798t4-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8743

  • Cross-domain agreement is strong in film, podcasts and TV, where the aggregate audience shows high affinity for the shared entities, e.g. Ford v Ferrari at 0.9360 and The Tai Lopez Show at 0.9554.

    t4-m3.domains[2].shared[0].affinity = 0.936t4-m3.domains[3].shared[0].affinity = 0.9554

  • Demographic alignment is a strength: the cosine similarity of the buyer and target gender and age profiles is 0.6616 against a shortlist average of 0.6095, with both audiences skewing male-leaning on the 25-to-29 and 24-and-younger buckets.

    t4-m4.cosine = 0.6616t4-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.6095

  • Momentum reads as a strength, with the normalised momentum value at 0.5 against a shortlist average of 0.4942, so the aggregate signal is not declining.

    t4-m6.value = 0.5t4-m6.shortlistAverages.value = 0.4942

  • Geographic footprint is a partial offset: the buyer's strongholds in Portland and Seattle are shared by the target audience at high affinity, and the white space is limited to 12 metros, so the gap is narrow in aggregate rather than structural.

    t4-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 12t4-m5.strongholds[0].target = 0.968

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • The composite score of 65.0 sits below the shortlist average of 70.5, so on the code's own ranking this target trails its peers, and the bear case starts from that gap.

    t4-score.F = 65.01t4-score.shortlistAverages.F = 70.55

  • Taste-profile overlap is thin: the aggregate audience shares only 17 tags out of 83 in the union, and 55% of the buyer's top-20 tags are missing from the target's audience, well above the shortlist's 46%.

    t4-m2.value = 0.1762t4-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.55t4-m2.shortlistAverages.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.4625

  • Geographic overlap runs against the deal: the correlation between buyer and target metro affinity is negative at -0.56, and 12 metros are white space where the buyer's audience is strong but the target's is not.

    t4-m5.correlation = -0.5642t4-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 12

  • The age and gender profiles diverge sharply: the aggregate target audience skews male at 0.24 and under-indexes on 45-54 at -0.51, while the buyer's 45-54 is 0.01, and the 45-54 gap is the largest single mismatch.

    t4-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.51t4-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.01t4-m4.target.male = 0.24

  • Diligence needed before any co-brand: the code raised no red flags, but the 0.88 two-way affinity is the only overlap signal, and the Music domain is a weakness versus the shortlist (0.83 vs 0.88), so the committee should test whether that affinity holds beyond the single shared driver, Red Bull.

    t4-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8655t4-profile.drivers[0].score = 1

IC memo

Number check passed: 24 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5 (after one repair pass)

Adidas: WATCH

Recommendation Watch, do not advance. The verdict rule applies: the composite F of 65.0 falls between 62 and 67, and the code raised no red flags. Adidas ranks 6 of 8 and sits below the shortlist average of 70.5.

Where the audiences meet

  • Two-way audience affinity is 0.8798, against a shortlist average of 0.8743. Red Bull is the only reverse affinity match, so the overlap rests on a single shared driver.
  • Film and podcast agreement is strong. The aggregate audience shows high affinity for Ford v Ferrari (0.9360) and The Tai Lopez Show (0.9554).
  • Demographic cosine similarity is 0.6616, against a shortlist average of 0.6095.

Risks

  • Taste overlap is thin. The aggregate audience shares 17 tags out of 83 in the union, and 55% of the buyer's top-20 tags are absent from the target audience, against 46% for the shortlist.
  • Geography runs against the deal. Metro affinity correlation is -0.56, and 12 metros are white space where the buyer's audience is strong and the target's is not.
  • Age profiles diverge. The target under-indexes on the middle-aged bucket at -0.51, where the buyer sits at 0.01. This is the largest single mismatch. The target skews male at 0.24.
  • Music cross-domain agreement is the weakest read on the shortlist-relative test. The code's TV reading also trails the shortlist, so the affinity signal may not hold beyond Red Bull.
  • Momentum is 0.5, against a shortlist average of 0.4942. The aggregate signal is not declining, but it offers little support.

Diligence questions

  • Does the Red Bull–Adidas affinity hold when Red Bull is not the only driver?
  • What would a co-branded pilot show on taste overlap and the middle-aged age gap?
  • Does the metro mismatch narrow in markets beyond Portland and Seattle?
  • What signal would move the target from WATCH to advance?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok15 of 15 candidates scoredlive 78 ms
/v2/insightsok15 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 109 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 582 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 612 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 984 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 2269 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3481 ms
/v2/insightsok11060 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3602 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 303 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 331 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 332 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok9366 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 1717 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 2752 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 2984 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 3246 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 4034 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 4455 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t4-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.879796143962465,
   "b": 0.879796143962465,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8797961439624651,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "409FAF5A-BC5F-4DC3-943D-E3B5F20B471D",
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "affinity": 0.879796143962465
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8742664278855332,
   "b": 0.8742664278855332,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8742664278855332
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.17619926199261995,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:hotel",
     "name": "Hotel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:bar",
     "name": "Bar",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:sports",
     "name": "Sports",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:travel",
     "name": "Travel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:gazpacho",
     "name": "Gazpacho",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:tourist_attraction",
     "name": "Tourist attraction",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:california",
     "name": "california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:pudim",
     "name": "Pudim",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:argentina",
     "name": "argentina",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:violence",
     "name": "violence",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:love",
     "name": "love",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenager",
     "name": "teenager",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 83,
   "sharedCount": 17,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.1904880193092421,
   "sharedCount": 17.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.4625000000000001
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.864383773421172,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Moguai",
       "affinity": 0.7802021763706022
      },
      {
       "name": "Wolfgang Gartner",
       "affinity": 0.7847975872177215
      },
      {
       "name": "Pendulum",
       "affinity": 0.7858914861831001
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8297472001721161,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "David Guetta",
       "affinity": 0.9229733175048191
      },
      {
       "name": "Calvin Harris",
       "affinity": 0.9007294001166772
      },
      {
       "name": "Tiësto",
       "affinity": 0.874740204534347
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Running Wild with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.8435910623388678
      },
      {
       "name": "Top Gear USA",
       "affinity": 0.8440150941398095
      },
      {
       "name": "The Island with Bear Grylls",
       "affinity": 0.8502080995354329
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.8655394544522329,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Hyperdrive",
       "affinity": 0.9011191572037333
      },
      {
       "name": "American Gladiators",
       "affinity": 0.8962999302320116
      },
      {
       "name": "SAS: Who Dares Wins",
       "affinity": 0.8865429770213522
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Dawn Wall",
       "affinity": 0.8588573115544691
      },
      {
       "name": "Free Solo",
       "affinity": 0.8655220879134551
      },
      {
       "name": "First Man",
       "affinity": 0.8783007887975004
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8956548080041713,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ford v Ferrari",
       "affinity": 0.9359743450043849
      },
      {
       "name": "The Irishman",
       "affinity": 0.9126982667574427
      },
      {
       "name": "El Camino",
       "affinity": 0.9094850509551683
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Noah Kagan Presents",
       "affinity": 0.8283855004171975
      },
      {
       "name": "Aubrey Marcus Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8323941843789988
      },
      {
       "name": "The Kevin Rose Show",
       "affinity": 0.8340750196153329
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8665936310561677,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Tai Lopez Show",
       "affinity": 0.9553971379538488
      },
      {
       "name": "The GaryVee Audio Experience",
       "affinity": 0.9005600347725637
      },
      {
       "name": "Dan Lok Show",
       "affinity": 0.8844042527047414
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[0].score": 0.81236913387113,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8777061177037968,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8717940715775916,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8243509670161102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.62,
    "female": -0.62,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.04,
    "35_to_44": 0.07,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": -0.64,
    "24_and_younger": 0.05
   },
   "value": 0.8307798780328055,
   "cosine": 0.661559756065611,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.24,
    "female": -0.24,
    "25_to_29": 0.22,
    "30_to_34": 0.11,
    "35_to_44": 0.08,
    "45_to_54": -0.51,
    "55_and_older": -0.58,
    "24_and_younger": 0.35000000000000003
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.01,
    "bucket": "45_to_54",
    "target": -0.51
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8047735128605162,
   "cosine": 0.6095470257210326
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.21791117441196584,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 41.8781,
     "lon": -87.6298,
     "buyer": 0.9904054357984292,
     "metro": "Chicago",
     "target": 0.9868207461133229,
     "buyerRel": 0.007545504960417282,
     "targetRel": 0.003960815275311003
    },
    {
     "lat": 25.7617,
     "lon": -80.1918,
     "buyer": 0.9941335403646854,
     "metro": "Miami",
     "target": 0.984270292397277,
     "buyerRel": 0.013097057976390936,
     "targetRel": 0.003233810008982596
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7128,
     "lon": -74.006,
     "buyer": 0.9938338170838814,
     "metro": "New York",
     "target": 0.9907285328781613,
     "buyerRel": 0.005304710247738709,
     "targetRel": 0.002199426042018615
    },
    {
     "lat": 34.0522,
     "lon": -118.2437,
     "buyer": 0.9945263438831847,
     "metro": "Los Angeles",
     "target": 0.9881709816032114,
     "buyerRel": 0.008230511741984414,
     "targetRel": 0.001875149462011061
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.7604,
     "lon": -95.3698,
     "buyer": 0.9891464680709147,
     "metro": "Houston",
     "target": 0.9825600765468294,
     "buyerRel": 0.00827685189974292,
     "targetRel": 0.0016904603756576764
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.7749,
     "lon": -122.4194,
     "buyer": 0.9942053003171626,
     "metro": "San Francisco",
     "target": 0.9773787386546037,
     "buyerRel": 0.01835128006315434,
     "targetRel": 0.0015247184005954262
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.9526,
     "lon": -75.1652,
     "buyer": 0.9902570471007516,
     "metro": "Philadelphia",
     "target": 0.9810029041921366,
     "buyerRel": 0.009048091380870704,
     "targetRel": -0.00020605152774422208
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.7767,
     "lon": -96.797,
     "buyer": 0.9899516064370247,
     "metro": "Dallas",
     "target": 0.9781388229007845,
     "buyerRel": 0.011600352223824384,
     "targetRel": -0.00021243131241588387
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.5641776511760683,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.990456271410248,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.9679784214704673,
     "buyerRel": 0.04338679163509751,
     "targetRel": 0.020908941695316874
    },
    {
     "lat": 47.6062,
     "lon": -122.3321,
     "buyer": 0.9922991980283921,
     "metro": "Seattle",
     "target": 0.9542797792349472,
     "buyerRel": 0.03600583971939797,
     "targetRel": -0.0020135790740468673
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 12,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5296261155151881,
   "correlation": 0.05925223103037629
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0,
   "value": 0.5,
   "priorSd": 0,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": -0.034857319857814484,
   "value": 0.4941904466903642
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Adidas",
  "data": {
   "name": "Adidas",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Red Bull",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "independent",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Germany",
    "China",
    "Japan",
    "United Kingdom"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9997457239239884,
   "screenRank": 4,
   "foundedYear": 1924,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    300
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Adidas AG",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.879796143962465,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Nike",
    "Puma",
    "Under Armour",
    "Reebok",
    "New Balance"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Kanye West",
    "Pharrell Williams",
    "FIFA",
    "UEFA",
    "Stella McCartney"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium global athletic brand offering performance and lifestyle products for both athletes and casual consumers."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 65.0085553956033,
   "points": {
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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  }
 }
]