VC thesis · showcase

Run-club culture thesis screen

Buyer audience: HOKA + On + Tracksmith + Athletic Brewing Co (parent: On Holding AG) · started Oct 26, 11:10 AM UTC · Qloo calls: 0 live, 141 from cache

Pipeline Ablation

Replayed from Qloo responses recorded in the private server-side cache. “Re-run live” re-queries Qloo.

Screened

Analysed

Verdicts

1 pass, 2 watch, 4 advance, 1 insufficient coverage

Claims judged

60 kept, 9 rejected

Outreach drafts

4 awaiting approval

Ranked shortlist

#	Target	F	Verdict	m1	m2	m3	m4	m5	m6	Coverage
1	Strava Independent	71.9	Advance	0.88	0.33	0.89	0.90	0.56	–	70%
2	Whoop Owner unknown	70.1	Advance	0.91	0.28	0.90	0.69	0.64	–	70%
3	Janji Owner unknown	68.1	Advance	0.93	0.31	0.90	0.41	0.68	–	70%
4	Cotopaxi Owner unknown	67.9	Advance	0.89	0.32	0.88	0.60	0.58	–	70%
5	Vuori Owner unknown	65.2	Watch	0.89	0.34	0.89	0.64	0.31	–	70%
6	Hyperice Owner unknown	64.0	Watch	0.88	0.16	0.86	0.95	0.22	–	70%
7	Maurten Owner unknown	61.0	Pass	0.92	0.22	0.86	0.58	0.22	–	70%
8	Athletic Greens Owner unknown	n/a	Insufficient coverage	0.88	–	0.86	0.48	0.48	–	55%

m1 two-way affinity · m2 taste overlap · m3 cross-domain agreement · m4 demographics · m5 geographic footprint · m6 momentum. “–” = Qloo could not measure it; it drops out of F rather than counting as zero.

Number check passed: 25 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written from the ledger template

Run-club culture thesis screen

Buyer audience: HOKA + On + Tracksmith + Athletic Brewing Co. Run 2026-10-26; momentum window to 2026-10-24.

#	Target	F	Verdict	Coverage
1	Strava	71.9	ADVANCE	70%
2	Whoop	70.1	ADVANCE	70%
3	Janji	68.1	ADVANCE	70%
4	Cotopaxi	67.9	ADVANCE	70%
5	Vuori	65.2	WATCH	70%
6	Hyperice	64.0	WATCH	70%
7	Maurten	61.0	PASS	70%
8	Athletic Greens	n/a	INSUFFICIENT_COVERAGE	55%

Outreach

0 draft(s) waiting for human approval in the approvals inbox. Nothing sends without it.

Whole universe: stage-1 screen (23 brands)

One Qloo rank call scores every candidate for the buyer’s audience (forward affinity). The top 8 plus pinned brands get the full analysis.

#	Brand	Forward affinity	Qloo popularity	Ownership	Analysed
1	Nuun Hydration	0.95	0.87	Part of another group	Part of Nestlé S.A: not acquirable or venture-stage for this deal type.
2	Janji	0.95	0.64	Owner unknown	yes
3	Altra Running	0.94	0.87	Part of another group	Part of VF Corporation: not acquirable or venture-stage for this deal type.
4	Maurten	0.93	0.73	Owner unknown	yes
5	Whoop	0.93	0.95	Owner unknown	yes
6	Brooks Running	0.93	0.97	Part of another group	Part of Berkshire Hathaway Inc: not acquirable or venture-stage for this deal type.
7	Saucony	0.92	0.96	Part of another group	Part of Wolverine World Wide, Inc: not acquirable or venture-stage for this deal type.
8	Vuori	0.91	0.85	Owner unknown	yes
9	Cotopaxi	0.91	0.88	Owner unknown	yes
10	Hyperice	0.90	0.87	Owner unknown	yes
11	Athletic Greens	0.90	0.87	Owner unknown	yes
12	Arc'teryx	0.89	0.98	Part of another group	Part of Amer Sports: not acquirable or venture-stage for this deal type.
13	Strava	0.89	0.96	Independent	yes
14	Drink LMNT	0.89	0.69	Owner unknown
15	District Vision	0.89	0.62	Owner unknown
16	Therabody	0.87	0.92	Owner unknown
17	Outdoor Voices	0.87	0.96	Owner unknown
18	Liquid I.V.	0.86	0.92	Part of another group	Part of Unilever: not acquirable or venture-stage for this deal type.
19	Olipop	0.86	0.75	Owner unknown
20	Allbirds	0.85	0.93	Owner unknown
21	Oura Ring	0.85	0.88	Owner unknown
22	Alo Yoga	0.79	0.99	Part of another group	Part of Color Image Apparel: not acquirable or venture-stage for this deal type.
23	Set Active	0.71	0.93	Owner unknown

Momentum window: 24 weeks to 2026-10-24, relative to a cohort of 12 brands.

Run log

Resolving 28 name(s) against Qloo's brand catalogue...
1 name(s) are ambiguous in Qloo. Confirm them to continue.
Confirmed 0 name(s), dropped 1.
Resolving 27 name(s) against Qloo's brand catalogue...
Buyer signal: HOKA + On + Tracksmith + Athletic Brewing Co (parent: On Holding AG). Universe: 23 brands.
Ranking 23 brands against the buyer's audience...
Shortlisted 8: Janji, Maurten, Whoop, Vuori, Cotopaxi, Hyperice, Athletic Greens, Strava. Skipped as part of another group (not acquirable or venture-stage): Nuun Hydration (Nestlé S.A.), Altra Running (VF Corporation), Brooks Running (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.), Saucony (Wolverine World Wide, Inc.), Arc'teryx (Amer Sports), Liquid I.V. (Unilever), Alo Yoga (Color Image Apparel).
Analysing 8 target(s) on six audience metrics (asking Qloo ~80 questions)...
Qloo evidence in for Janji (1/8).
Qloo evidence in for Maurten (2/8).
Qloo evidence in for Cotopaxi (3/8).
Qloo evidence in for Vuori (4/8).
Qloo evidence in for Athletic Greens (5/8).
Qloo evidence in for Whoop (6/8).
Qloo evidence in for Hyperice (7/8).
Qloo evidence in for Strava (8/8).
Analysed Whoop (1/8): 5/6 metrics measured.
Analysed Maurten (2/8): 5/6 metrics measured.
Analysed Cotopaxi (4/8): 5/6 metrics measured.
Analysed Vuori (3/8): 5/6 metrics measured.
Analysed Janji (5/8): 5/6 metrics measured.
Analysed Athletic Greens (6/8): 4/6 metrics measured.
Analysed Strava (7/8): 5/6 metrics measured.
Analysed Hyperice (8/8): 5/6 metrics measured.
Scoring in code: composite, coverage, red flags...
Scored 8 target(s): 4 ADVANCE, 1 PASS, 2 WATCH, 1 INSUFFICIENT_COVERAGE (before debate).
Debating 7 target(s): bull vs bear, judged in code against the ledger...
Maurten: 10 of 10 claims validated -> PASS.
Janji: 9 of 10 claims validated -> ADVANCE.
Whoop: 6 of 10 claims validated -> ADVANCE.
Bear claim rejected for Whoop: cites Composite score "coverage" = 0.7 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.6813)
Bear claim rejected for Janji: cites Composite score "coverage" = 0.7 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.6813)
Bear claim rejected for Whoop: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "b" = 0.8892 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.878)
Bear claim rejected for Whoop: cites m4 Demographic alignment "cosine" = 0.3761 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.313)
Vuori: 9 of 10 claims validated -> WATCH.
Bear claim rejected for Vuori: cites Composite score "coverage" = 0.7 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.6813)
Cotopaxi: 8 of 10 claims validated -> ADVANCE.
Bear claim rejected for Cotopaxi: cites Composite score "coverage" = 0.7 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.6813)
Bear claim rejected for Cotopaxi: cites Composite score "F" = 67.9267 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (66.8962)
Hyperice: 8 of 9 claims validated -> WATCH.
Bear claim rejected for Hyperice: cites Composite score "coverage" = 0.7 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.6813)
Strava: 10 of 10 claims validated -> ADVANCE.
14 of 14 debate answers were replayed from stored Claude answers (same model, prompt and evidence); the judge re-checked every claim.
Writing 6 IC memo(s); every number is checked against the ledger...
Memo for Strava: 15 numbers checked, all in the ledger.
Memo for Whoop: 18 numbers checked, all in the ledger.
Memo for Cotopaxi: 9 numbers checked, all in the ledger.
Memo for Janji: 17 numbers checked, all in the ledger.
Memo for Hyperice: 22 numbers checked, all in the ledger.
Memo for Vuori: 21 numbers checked, all in the ledger.
Acting: pipeline board, outreach drafts (human approval required), monitor registration...
4 earlier deal(s) not shortlisted this time are no longer monitored.
Pinned 113 Qloo responses for replay of this showcase scenario (private server-side cache).
Pipeline updated for 8 target(s); 4 outreach draft(s) waiting for approval.
Done: 4 ADVANCE, 2 WATCH, 1 PASS, 1 INSUFFICIENT_COVERAGE.