Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Los Angeles Dodgers → target #6 of 8

Supreme

A premium streetwear brand leveraging scarcity and exclusivity to maintain a high-fashion cachet within the youth market.

Founded 1994 · Parent: VF Corporation · Competes with Stüssy, Palace Skateboards, A Bathing Ape, Kith · Partnerships: Louis Vuitton, Nike, The North Face

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
63.2F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 63.2 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.77
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.18
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.85
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.57
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.46
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.50
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3527.0
Taste-profile overlap0.101.8
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.0
Demographic alignment0.105.7
Geographic footprint0.209.2
Momentum0.052.5
F63.2

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Los Angeles Dodgers (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Supreme’s audience embraces them.

Music0.91
Embraced: Meek Mill, Jay Rock, ScHoolboy Q · Least shared: UGK, E-40, Cam'ron
TV0.89
Embraced: The Righteous Gemstones, Ballers, Men of a Certain Age · Least shared: Arrested Development, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Running Wilde
Film0.76
Embraced: Coach Carter, Creed, More Than a Game · Least shared: Major League II, Draft Day, 42
Podcasts0.84
Embraced: The Church of What's Happening Now: The New Testament, I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST, What's Up Fool? Podcast · Least shared: Anything Better?, The YoYoYo Podcast w/Martin & Hooter, Tom Segura En Español

Taste profile overlap

16 of 84 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hoprapelectronicfriendshiprockfriendrhythm & bluestrap
Buyer only

American, Tortillas, mexican american, family relationships, los angeles california

Supreme only

Omakase, chinese drama, live action adaptation, japanese drama, based on novel

Audience shape

Los Angeles Dodgers (buyer) Supreme
-0.70-0.350.00+0.35+0.70≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.01 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Supreme strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Minneapolis, Raleigh, Columbus, Richmond, Hartford, New Orleans, Louisville, Baltimore

Shared strongholds

Albuquerque, Tucson, Anchorage, Portland

Bull vs bear

6 of 10 claims survived the judge; 4 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Aggregate cross-domain agreement is strong: the audience's taste across music, TV, film and podcasts sits at 0.850, above the shortlist average of 0.844, which suggests a broad shared taste base rather than a single-category overlap.

    t6-m3.value = 0.8502t6-m3.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8442

  • The strongest domain signals are music and TV, where the audience affinity scores are 0.911 and 0.886 respectively, both above the shortlist averages, pointing to music and TV as natural co-brand content territories.

    t6-m3.domains[0].score = 0.9112t6-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8864

  • Demographic alignment is a relative strength: the demographic alignment value is 0.568 against a shortlist average of 0.513, and the demographic profile correlates positively with the target's (cosine 0.136), so the audience skews toward a similar age and gender mix.

    t6-m4.value = 0.5681t6-m4.shortlistAverages.value = 0.5129t6-m4.cosine = 0.1362

  • The geographic footprint is above the cohort: the aggregate metro footprint value is 0.458 against a shortlist average of 0.434, and the code identified 9 white-space metros where the target's audience over-indexes while the Dodgers' does not, which offers a regional expansion angle.

    t6-m5.value = 0.4582t6-m5.shortlistAverages.value = 0.4339t6-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 9

  • Supreme's Qloo profile shows very high popularity (0.999) and a forward affinity of 0.773 toward the Dodgers, indicating the brand is already strongly linked to the team in aggregate audience data, which lowers the perceived distance of the pairing.

    t6-profile.popularity = 0.9989t6-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.7727

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Diligence must address the 30-34 age gap: the buyer's aggregate affinity there is -0.70 against the target's 0.23, the largest mismatch, even though the overall demographic cosine reads as a strength.

    t6-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.7t6-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.23

  • Two-way audience affinity between the Dodgers and Supreme is thin: the aggregate affinity reads 0.773 against a shortlist average of 0.806, a weakness, so the overlap is below the peer set.

    t6-m1.value = 0.7727t6-m1.value = 0.8058

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8058 for m1 Two-way audience affinity "value", but the ledger says 0.7727

  • Taste-profile overlap is weak: only 16 shared tags against a shortlist average of 21.75, and the buyer's top-20 tags are 65% missing from the target, versus a 47.5% shortlist average.

    t6-m2.sharedCount = 16t6-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.65t6-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.475

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.475 for m2 Taste-profile overlap "buyerTop20MissingShare", but the ledger says 0.65

  • The composite F score of 63.2 sits below the shortlist average of 64.2, so on the code's weighted total this pairing ranks as a weakness against its peers.

    t6-score.F = 63.22t6-score.F = 64.18

    Rejected by the judge: cited 64.1762 for Composite score "F", but the ledger says 63.2158

  • Momentum is flat: the z-score of 0.013 is a weakness against a shortlist average of 0.192, so the audience signal is not building and any licensing timing rests on a stable rather than rising interest.

    t6-m6.z = 0.01315t6-m6.z = 0.1917

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.1917 for m6 Momentum "z", but the ledger says 0.0132

IC memo

Number check passed: 31 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Supreme: WATCH

Recommendation. Supreme is a WATCH, not a go. Its composite F of 63.2 falls in the 62 to 67 band, and no red flags were raised, so the verdict rule places it here. It ranks 6 of 8 on the shortlist, and the two-way affinity and momentum readings are both below the shortlist average.

Where the audiences meet. Cross-domain agreement is the strongest validated signal, at 0.850 against a shortlist average of 0.844. Music (0.911) and TV (0.886) are the strongest domains, both above their shortlist averages, which points to music and TV as natural co-brand content territory. Demographic alignment (0.568 vs. 0.513) and the metro footprint (0.458 vs. 0.434) also read as relative strengths. The code identified 9 white-space metros where the target's audience over-indexes and the Dodgers' audience does not. Supreme's forward affinity toward the Dodgers is 0.773 in aggregate data.

Risks.

  • The 30-34 age bucket is the largest mismatch: the Dodgers' audience affinity there is -0.70 against Supreme's 0.23. The overall demographic cosine reads as a strength, but this gap is material.
  • Two-way affinity is 0.773 against a shortlist average of 0.806, a weakness.
  • Taste-profile overlap is weak: 16 shared tags, and 65% of the Dodgers' top-20 tags are missing from Supreme's profile.
  • Momentum is a weakness (z of 0.01 against a shortlist average of 0.19).
  • Supreme is part of VF Corporation, and its positioning centers on scarcity and exclusivity.
  • No red flags were raised.

Diligence questions

  • Does a co-branded pilot hold up in the 30-34 bucket, given the -0.70 vs. 0.23 gap?
  • Does the music and TV overlap translate into concrete content formats, and how do they fit the taste-tag gap?
  • Would scarcity-driven drops conflict with the Dodgers' broad fan reach?
  • Can the 9 white-space metros be tested with a regional activation before a national deal?
  • What approvals does VF Corporation's ownership require?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok7800 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok9899 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t6-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.7727085015935597,
   "b": 0.7727085015935597,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.7727085015935596,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "9B8B279C-B777-4293-8121-B8174970B57D",
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "affinity": 0.7727085015935597
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8058428397073507,
   "b": 0.8058428397073507,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8058428397073506
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.1811023622047244,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rhythm_blues",
     "name": "rhythm & blues",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:trap",
     "name": "trap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:american",
     "name": "American",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tortillas",
     "name": "Tortillas",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mexican_american",
     "name": "mexican american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:los_angeles_california",
     "name": "los angeles california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:omakase",
     "name": "Omakase",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:chinese_drama",
     "name": "chinese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:live_action_adaptation",
     "name": "live action adaptation",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:japanese_drama",
     "name": "japanese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_novel",
     "name": "based on novel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 84,
   "sharedCount": 16,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.65
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.26208447790247186,
   "sharedCount": 21.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.475
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8502104442136906,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "UGK",
       "affinity": 0.8458655459696001
      },
      {
       "name": "E-40",
       "affinity": 0.8491618169756809
      },
      {
       "name": "Cam'ron",
       "affinity": 0.8493478112952971
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.9111581307872052,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "Meek Mill",
       "affinity": 0.953524423394985
      },
      {
       "name": "Jay Rock",
       "affinity": 0.9522001569127307
      },
      {
       "name": "ScHoolboy Q",
       "affinity": 0.9451700114377217
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Arrested Development",
       "affinity": 0.8549574552583015
      },
      {
       "name": "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia",
       "affinity": 0.8622561000329658
      },
      {
       "name": "Running Wilde",
       "affinity": 0.8627832677492401
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.8863725771103454,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Righteous Gemstones",
       "affinity": 0.9243397636403059
      },
      {
       "name": "Ballers",
       "affinity": 0.9234438772704032
      },
      {
       "name": "Men of a Certain Age",
       "affinity": 0.9135292878927166
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Major League II",
       "affinity": 0.7146509601769044
      },
      {
       "name": "Draft Day",
       "affinity": 0.7224843747630698
      },
      {
       "name": "42",
       "affinity": 0.7270930308179046
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.7587112004338243,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.7991811761557904
      },
      {
       "name": "Creed",
       "affinity": 0.7991511577239746
      },
      {
       "name": "More Than a Game",
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     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Anything Better?",
       "affinity": 0.800799585109407
      },
      {
       "name": "The YoYoYo Podcast w/Martin & Hooter",
       "affinity": 0.8027849861596902
      },
      {
       "name": "Tom Segura En Español",
       "affinity": 0.8140557873424826
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8445998685233878,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Church of What's Happening Now: The New Testament",
       "affinity": 0.8825924501071436
      },
      {
       "name": "I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST",
       "affinity": 0.8791146667868431
      },
      {
       "name": "What's Up Fool? Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8716857194667736
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
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  "shortlistAverages": {
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   "domains[0].score": 0.8794888506674802,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8836269856142132,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8086589764417401,
   "domains[3].score": 0.804967040700262
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.21,
    "female": -0.21,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": -0.53,
    "45_to_54": 0.22,
    "55_and_older": 0.33,
    "24_and_younger": 0.36
   },
   "value": 0.5681194157515412,
   "cosine": 0.13623883150308252,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.39,
    "female": -0.39,
    "25_to_29": 0.08,
    "30_to_34": 0.23,
    "35_to_44": -0.66,
    "45_to_54": -0.47000000000000003,
    "55_and_older": -0.59,
    "24_and_younger": 0.37
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": -0.7000000000000001,
    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": 0.23
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5129090961869054,
   "cosine": 0.02581819237381071
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.4581805226792658,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
     "buyer": 0.8241633733063134,
     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.9645150837501468,
     "buyerRel": -0.03961269569810533,
     "targetRel": 0.1007390147457281
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.7796,
     "lon": -78.6382,
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     "metro": "Raleigh",
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     "targetRel": 0.08365357067903989
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.9612,
     "lon": -82.9988,
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     "metro": "Columbus",
     "target": 0.9529970662610234,
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     "targetRel": 0.08127956748026166
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.5407,
     "lon": -77.436,
     "buyer": 0.8227237801832991,
     "metro": "Richmond",
     "target": 0.9628303562052233,
     "buyerRel": -0.0651320396505396,
     "targetRel": 0.07497453637138463
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.7658,
     "lon": -72.6734,
     "buyer": 0.8474897021248272,
     "metro": "Hartford",
     "target": 0.9918947277351011,
     "buyerRel": -0.06953699075301978,
     "targetRel": 0.07486803485725413
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
     "lon": -90.0715,
     "buyer": 0.8603376979016809,
     "metro": "New Orleans",
     "target": 0.9812694364666127,
     "buyerRel": -0.04718794664719117,
     "targetRel": 0.07374379191774061
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.8065839559632366,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9329259499082655,
     "buyerRel": -0.05332035817189362,
     "targetRel": 0.07302163577313525
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.2904,
     "lon": -76.6122,
     "buyer": 0.8511852724968442,
     "metro": "Baltimore",
     "target": 0.9874529610641741,
     "buyerRel": -0.06503757303932489,
     "targetRel": 0.07123011552800507
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.0836389546414684,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.9706899894380029,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9644209413778402,
     "buyerRel": 0.09551623700885659,
     "targetRel": 0.08924718894869388
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.9663896768709499,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.954674387121302,
     "buyerRel": 0.09608621357675451,
     "targetRel": 0.08437092382710665
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.8499582220228651,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.914962372821318,
     "buyerRel": 0.047812276744295,
     "targetRel": 0.1128164275427479
    },
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.9398023648759333,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.9761736445368259,
     "buyerRel": 0.043643888424171884,
     "targetRel": 0.08001516808506448
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 9,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.43391156033354505,
   "correlation": -0.13217687933290995
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.013151852484016846,
   "value": 0.5021919754140028,
   "priorSd": 0.0004223393061461323,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.23026282478592353,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.2299997877362432
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.19174600813212095,
   "value": 0.5319576680220202
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Supreme",
  "data": {
   "name": "Supreme",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "part_of_other",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Japan",
    "Europe"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9989320404807513,
   "screenRank": 6,
   "foundedYear": 1994,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    40,
    500
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "VF Corporation",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.7727085015935597,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Stüssy",
    "Palace Skateboards",
    "A Bathing Ape",
    "Kith",
    "Off-White"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Louis Vuitton",
    "Nike",
    "The North Face",
    "Comme Des Garçons",
    "Levi's"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "A premium streetwear brand leveraging scarcity and exclusivity to maintain a high-fashion cachet within the youth market."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t6-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 63.21579455026638,
   "points": {
    "m1": 27.044797555774586,
    "m2": 1.811023622047244,
    "m3": 17.00420888427381,
    "m4": 5.681194157515412,
    "m5": 9.163610453585315,
    "m6": 2.510959877070014
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.17616394455051
  }
 }
]