Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Los Angeles Dodgers → target #3 of 8

New Era Cap

The definitive, authentic market leader in licensed sports headwear that transitions seamlessly from the playing field to daily streetwear.

Founded 1920 · Competes with Mitchell & Ness, Fanatics, '47, Under Armour · Partnerships: MLB, NFL, NBA

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
65.9F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 65.9 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.85
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.36
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.83
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.52
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.40
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.52
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3529.9
Taste-profile overlap0.103.6
Cross-domain agreement0.2016.7
Demographic alignment0.105.2
Geographic footprint0.207.9
Momentum0.052.6
F65.9

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Los Angeles Dodgers (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly New Era Cap’s audience embraces them.

Music0.81
Embraced: The Notorious B.I.G., Problem, Cam'ron · Least shared: Berner, Nipsey Hussle, 2 Chainz
TV0.90
Embraced: Ballers, Brockmire, Eastbound & Down · Least shared: Arrested Development, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Running Wilde
Film0.84
Embraced: Creed, Coach Carter, More Than a Game · Least shared: Rudy, The Pistol: The Birth of a Legend, Hoosiers
Podcasts0.78
Embraced: I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST, Anything Better?, The Pete and Sebastian Show · Least shared: Riffin With Griffin, George Perez Stories, Enchilada Casserole

Taste profile overlap

26 of 74 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hoprapelectronicafrican americanfriendfamily relationshipsamerican footballlos angeles california
Buyer only

Tortillas, mexican american, European, latino, female protagonist

New Era Cap only

Stadium, Veal Parmesan, car, football, Reggaeton

Audience shape

Los Angeles Dodgers (buyer) New Era Cap
-0.73-0.360.00+0.36+0.73≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.13 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: New Era Cap strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Buffalo, New York, Chicago, Atlanta

Shared strongholds

Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento, San Jose

Bull vs bear

10 of 10 claims survived the judge; 0 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The audience affinity between the Dodgers and New Era Cap is high and sits above the shortlist average, with the two-way audience affinity at 0.85 versus a shortlist average of 0.81, indicating strong aggregate overlap in the audience.

    t2-m1.value = 0.8545t2-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8058

  • The Dodgers' own audience affinity for New Era Cap is reciprocal at the same level, and the composite score of 65.89 sits above the shortlist average of 64.18, placing this pairing ahead of the typical candidate on the desk's overall measure.

    t2-m1.reverse[0].affinity = 0.8545t2-score.F = 65.89t2-score.shortlistAverages.F = 64.18

  • Taste-profile overlap is a strength: 26 shared taste tags out of a union of 74, with the aggregate overlap value at 0.36 against a shortlist average of 0.26, and the buyer's top-20 missing share is 0.35 versus 0.475 on the shortlist.

    t2-m2.sharedCount = 26t2-m2.value = 0.3622t2-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35

  • Demographic alignment is a strength on the cosine measure: the aggregate cosine is 0.036 against a shortlist average of 0.026, with the target's audience skewing male (0.73) and the buyer skewing male at 0.21, supporting a shared male-leaning core audience.

    t2-m4.cosine = 0.03571t2-m4.target.male = 0.73t2-m4.buyer.male = 0.21

  • The Dodgers' audience shows a 55-and-older gap relative to New Era Cap, a point to manage in creative and channel planning rather than a disqualifier, since the aggregate demographic value still reads as a strength at 0.52 against 0.51 on the shortlist.

    t2-m4.value = 0.5179t2-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.33

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Cross-domain agreement is weaker than the shortlist: the aggregate audience's overall agreement score is 0.833 against a shortlist average of 0.844, and the music domain scores 0.809 against 0.879. The bear reading is that the audience's taste is less consistent across media than comparable brands, so a co-brand would rest on a narrower base.

    t2-m3.value = 0.8328t2-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8086t2-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[0].score = 0.8795

  • Geographic footprint is a weakness: the aggregate affinity footprint scores 0.396 against a shortlist average of 0.434, and its correlation with the cohort is negative (-0.208 against -0.132). Diligence should confirm whether the Dodgers' strongholds in Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and San Jose translate to the target's markets.

    t2-m5.value = 0.3958t2-m5.correlation = -0.2084t2-m5.shortlistAverages.value = 0.4339

  • Momentum is weak: the z-score of recent audience affinity is 0.133 against a shortlist average of 0.192, and the normalised value is 0.522 against 0.532. The signal does not show the accelerating interest that would justify a near-term commitment.

    t2-m6.z = 0.1326t2-m6.value = 0.5221t2-m6.shortlistAverages.z = 0.1917

  • The aggregate demographic profile diverges sharply in the 55-and-older bucket: the Dodgers' audience sits at 0.33 while the target's sits at -0.69. The overall alignment reads as a strength, but this gap means the brand's core older fans may not carry over and should be tested before any launch.

    t2-m4.buyer.55_and_older = 0.33t2-m4.target.55_and_older = -0.69

  • Podcast-domain affinity is weaker than the shortlist: the target's podcast score is 0.779 against a shortlist average of 0.805. The audience's overlap with the target in audio media is thinner than in comparable brands, limiting the reach of any podcast-led co-brand activation.

    t2-m3.domains[3].score = 0.7791t2-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[3].score = 0.805

IC memo

Number check passed: 25 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

New Era Cap: WATCH

Recommendation. New Era Cap scores F 65.9, inside the 62 to 67 WATCH band, with no red flags, which is the rule that set this verdict. It ranks 3 of 8 and sits above the shortlist average of 64.2. Advance to pilot-level diligence, not a commitment.

Where the audiences meet. The two-way audience affinity is 0.85 against a shortlist average of 0.81, and the Dodgers' affinity for New Era Cap is reciprocal at the same level. Taste overlap is the strongest signal: 26 shared tags out of a union of 74, with overlap at 0.36 against 0.26 on the shortlist. The aggregate audience skews male for both parties, which supports a shared core.

Risks.

  • Momentum is weak. The z-score of recent audience affinity is 0.13 against 0.19 on the shortlist. The signal does not show accelerating interest.
  • Older-fan gap. The 55-and-older bucket diverges sharply: 0.33 for the Dodgers' audience against -0.69 for the target. Overall demographic alignment still reads as a strength.
  • Geography. Footprint is 0.40 against 0.43 on the shortlist, with a negative correlation to the cohort. The Dodgers' strongholds in Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and San Jose are not clearly reflected in the target's markets.
  • Cross-domain breadth. Agreement across media is 0.83 against 0.84. Music (0.81 against 0.88) and podcasts (0.78 against 0.81) are weaker than comparable brands.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot show in the Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and San Jose markets, given the weak footprint correlation?
  • Does the aggregate older-audience gap narrow with creative and channel changes, and how would that be tested before launch?
  • Does the Dodgers' affinity for New Era Cap hold up in a short pilot, given that recent momentum is flat?
  • Which music and podcast activations would work despite the weaker cross-domain agreement?
  • What is the target's ownership structure? Ownership is recorded as unknown.

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok7800 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok6409 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t2-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8545459731464383,
   "b": 0.8545459731464383,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8545459731464383,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "9B8B279C-B777-4293-8121-B8174970B57D",
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "affinity": 0.8545459731464383
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8058428397073507,
   "b": 0.8058428397073507,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8058428397073506
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.36217948717948717,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
     "name": "african american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:los_angeles_california",
     "name": "los angeles california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tortillas",
     "name": "Tortillas",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mexican_american",
     "name": "mexican american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:european",
     "name": "European",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:latino",
     "name": "latino",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
     "name": "female protagonist",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:stadium",
     "name": "Stadium",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:veal_parmesan",
     "name": "Veal Parmesan",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:football",
     "name": "football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:reggaeton",
     "name": "Reggaeton",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 74,
   "sharedCount": 26,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.26208447790247186,
   "sharedCount": 21.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.475
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8327897434562456,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Berner",
       "affinity": 0.7887758357702228
      },
      {
       "name": "Nipsey Hussle",
       "affinity": 0.7951040180156043
      },
      {
       "name": "2 Chainz",
       "affinity": 0.7952862229696628
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8085500474305332,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Notorious B.I.G.",
       "affinity": 0.8434961920873667
      },
      {
       "name": "Problem",
       "affinity": 0.838110050546372
      },
      {
       "name": "Cam'ron",
       "affinity": 0.8244390547052439
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Arrested Development",
       "affinity": 0.8626296545623761
      },
      {
       "name": "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia",
       "affinity": 0.8732075134550504
      },
      {
       "name": "Running Wilde",
       "affinity": 0.8774078312382643
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9006889478956094,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ballers",
       "affinity": 0.9816285497758254
      },
      {
       "name": "Brockmire",
       "affinity": 0.9239997346865342
      },
      {
       "name": "Eastbound & Down",
       "affinity": 0.9175369859537635
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Rudy",
       "affinity": 0.802175172221207
      },
      {
       "name": "The Pistol: The Birth of a Legend",
       "affinity": 0.8077485154620593
      },
      {
       "name": "Hoosiers",
       "affinity": 0.807986748804707
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8428648633121136,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Creed",
       "affinity": 0.9219850438759404
      },
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.8719895124814361
      },
      {
       "name": "More Than a Game",
       "affinity": 0.8683217724125536
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Riffin With Griffin",
       "affinity": 0.7437941886854972
      },
      {
       "name": "George Perez Stories",
       "affinity": 0.746446439835072
      },
      {
       "name": "Enchilada Casserole",
       "affinity": 0.7476450509976843
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.7790551151867259,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "I AM RAPAPORT: STEREO PODCAST",
       "affinity": 0.8482926333696806
      },
      {
       "name": "Anything Better?",
       "affinity": 0.8316525985278301
      },
      {
       "name": "The Pete and Sebastian Show",
       "affinity": 0.8124485829040397
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8441854633559238,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8794888506674802,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8836269856142132,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8086589764417401,
   "domains[3].score": 0.804967040700262
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.21,
    "female": -0.21,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": -0.53,
    "45_to_54": 0.22,
    "55_and_older": 0.33,
    "24_and_younger": 0.36
   },
   "value": 0.517856706400541,
   "cosine": 0.03571341280108201,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.73,
    "female": -0.73,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.06,
    "35_to_44": 0.01,
    "45_to_54": 0.16,
    "55_and_older": -0.6900000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": -0.06
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.33,
    "bucket": "55_and_older",
    "target": -0.6900000000000001
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5129090961869054,
   "cosine": 0.02581819237381071
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.39578544876821603,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 42.8864,
     "lon": -78.8784,
     "buyer": 0.822516777760419,
     "metro": "Buffalo",
     "target": 0.975721542654899,
     "buyerRel": -0.09553453489772157,
     "targetRel": 0.057670229996758415
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7128,
     "lon": -74.006,
     "buyer": 0.9277621396874952,
     "metro": "New York",
     "target": 0.9559924100522847,
     "buyerRel": -0.03799999557565281,
     "targetRel": -0.009769725210863278
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.8781,
     "lon": -87.6298,
     "buyer": 0.9369385202202375,
     "metro": "Chicago",
     "target": 0.9516857401937747,
     "buyerRel": -0.026636719026512434,
     "targetRel": -0.011889499052975205
    },
    {
     "lat": 33.749,
     "lon": -84.388,
     "buyer": 0.9192048906814938,
     "metro": "Atlanta",
     "target": 0.9266002004855813,
     "buyerRel": -0.028202428204356922,
     "targetRel": -0.020807118400269387
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.20842910246356794,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 33.4484,
     "lon": -112.074,
     "buyer": 0.9871317998785691,
     "metro": "Phoenix",
     "target": 0.9342773754414108,
     "buyerRel": 0.04539765309736399,
     "targetRel": -0.007456771339794388
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.7157,
     "lon": -117.1611,
     "buyer": 0.9991776483152878,
     "metro": "San Diego",
     "target": 0.9549017524261905,
     "buyerRel": 0.03613923205339131,
     "targetRel": -0.008136663835705993
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.5816,
     "lon": -121.4944,
     "buyer": 0.9869141049046211,
     "metro": "Sacramento",
     "target": 0.9191799664395105,
     "buyerRel": 0.04403233985604815,
     "targetRel": -0.023701798609062408
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.3382,
     "lon": -121.8863,
     "buyer": 0.9808622670867017,
     "metro": "San Jose",
     "target": 0.9246961895723682,
     "buyerRel": 0.028624991795488386,
     "targetRel": -0.02754108571884506
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 4,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.43391156033354505,
   "correlation": -0.13217687933290995
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.1325909549243054,
   "value": 0.5220984924873843,
   "priorSd": 0.0021496145950654065,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.12010409849195325,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.11745227939346714
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.19174600813212095,
   "value": 0.5319576680220202
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: New Era Cap",
  "data": {
   "name": "New Era Cap",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Japan",
    "Australia",
    "Europe"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9843026902408842,
   "screenRank": 2,
   "foundedYear": 1920,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    60
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8545459731464383,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Mitchell & Ness",
    "Fanatics",
    "'47",
    "Under Armour"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "MLB",
    "NFL",
    "NBA",
    "NHL",
    "Spike Lee"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "The definitive, authentic market leader in licensed sports headwear that transitions seamlessly from the playing field to daily streetwear."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 65.89146730285177,
   "points": {
    "m1": 29.909109060125342,
    "m2": 3.621794871794872,
    "m3": 16.65579486912491,
    "m4": 5.17856706400541,
    "m5": 7.91570897536432,
    "m6": 2.6104924624369215
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.17616394455051
  }
 }
]