Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Los Angeles Dodgers → target #5 of 8

Vans

Accessible, authentic lifestyle brand for action sports and casual streetwear enthusiasts.

Founded 1966 · Parent: VF Corporation · Competes with Converse, DC Shoes, Nike SB, Globe · Partnerships: Supreme, Thrasher, Disney

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
63.5F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 63.5 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.76
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.19
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.81
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.55
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.53
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.50
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3526.7
Taste-profile overlap0.101.9
Cross-domain agreement0.2016.3
Demographic alignment0.105.5
Geographic footprint0.2010.6
Momentum0.052.5
F63.5

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Los Angeles Dodgers (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Vans’s audience embraces them.

Music0.78
Embraced: ScHoolboy Q, The Notorious B.I.G., YG · Least shared: Swishahouse, Berner, UGK
TV0.89
Embraced: Workaholics, Trailer Park Boys, Reno 911! · Least shared: Arrested Development, Running Wilde, A.P. Bio
Film0.79
Embraced: Coach Carter, More Than a Game, Rebound: The Legend of Earl 'The Goat' Manigault · Least shared: Draft Day, 42, Major League II
Podcasts0.81
Embraced: Ten Minute Podcast, Monday Morning Podcast, TigerBelly · Least shared: Anything Better?, The YoYoYo Podcast w/Martin & Hooter, Enchilada Casserole

Taste profile overlap

17 of 83 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hopfriendshiprockfriendrapfemale protagonistelectronicteenage boy
Buyer only

American, Tortillas, mexican american, los angeles california, african american

Vans only

Romance, Salmon A La Plancha, love, chinese drama, based on novel

Audience shape

Los Angeles Dodgers (buyer) Vans
-0.70-0.350.00+0.35+0.70≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.02 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Vans strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Minneapolis, Louisville, Columbus, Cincinnati, Raleigh, St. Louis

Shared strongholds

Boise, Anchorage, Tucson, Albuquerque, Oklahoma City

Bull vs bear

7 of 10 claims survived the judge; 3 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The demographic alignment is a strength: the Dodgers audience over-indexes on 24 and younger at 0.36 and on 55 and older at 0.33, and the cosine of the demographic profiles is 0.096 against a shortlist average of 0.026.

    t7-m4.cosine = 0.09561t7-m4.buyer.24_and_younger = 0.36t7-m4.buyer.55_and_older = 0.33

  • The geographic footprint is a strength: the audience correlation of 0.060 sits above the shortlist average of -0.132, and the audience affinity is elevated in six white-space metros including Minneapolis and Columbus, where Vans shows stronger relative affinity than the Dodgers.

    t7-m5.correlation = 0.05987t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 6t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 6

  • The TV domain is a clear strength in the aggregate, with the TV cross-domain score at 0.889 against a shortlist average of 0.884, and the shared TV titles show affinities around 0.92 such as Workaholics.

    t7-m3.domains[1].score = 0.8886t7-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.9268

  • The Dodgers-Vans two-way audience affinity is 0.76 in both directions, and the composite cross-domain agreement across music, TV, film and podcasts sits at 0.81, so the shared audience is real rather than one-sided.

    t7-m3.value = 0.8142t7-m1.ratio = 1

    Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "value" = 0.8142 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8442)

  • The score is near the shortlist average, so the case rests on audience-level fit rather than a single dominant metric; the Dodgers-Vans composite F is 63.46 against a shortlist average of 64.18, and the relationship is flagged only as a weakness, so treat this as a qualified opportunity.

    t7-score.F = 63.46

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 63.4585 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (64.1762)

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Two-way audience affinity between the Dodgers and Vans is 0.762, below the shortlist average of 0.806, so the shared audience overlap is weaker than typical for this shortlist.

    t7-m1.value = 0.7623t7-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8058

  • Taste-profile overlap is only 0.190, with 17 shared tags out of a union of 83, and the buyer's top-20 missing share is 0.6 against a shortlist average of 0.475, meaning the Dodgers' core audience tags are largely absent from Vans' profile.

    t7-m2.value = 0.1905t7-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.6t7-m2.sharedCount = 17

  • The composite score is 63.46 against a shortlist average of 64.18, a weakness reading, and momentum is also weak at 0.503 versus 0.532, so the audience signal is not strengthening.

    t7-score.F = 63.46t7-m6.value = 0.5027

  • Diligence must test whether the affinity is stable: the Dodgers' 55-and-older bucket (0.33) and the target's 35-to-44 and 55-and-older buckets (-0.64 and -0.62) diverge sharply, so demographic fit rests on a narrow, uncertain band rather than a broad shared base.

    t7-m4.biggestGap.buyer = 0.33t7-m4.biggestGap.target = -0.62

  • Cross-domain agreement is 0.814 against a shortlist average of 0.844, and the Music and Podcasts domain scores (0.776 and 0.807) sit below their shortlist averages, so the overlap is concentrated in TV and Film rather than the music and fan-culture channels a sports partnership would lean on.

    t7-m3.value = 0.8142t7-m3.domains[0].score = 0.7757t7-m3.domains[3].score = 0.807

    Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[3].score" = 0.807 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (0.805)

IC memo

Number check passed: 39 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Vans: WATCH

Recommendation Vans scores F 63.5, inside the 62 to 67 WATCH band, with no red flags, so the verdict rule places it at WATCH. Its composite sits below the shortlist average of 64.18 and it ranks 5 of 8, so it is a conditional candidate pending pilot evidence.

Where the audiences meet

  • Demographic alignment is the strongest validated signal. The Dodgers audience over-indexes on 24 and younger (0.36) and 55 and older (0.33), and the demographic cosine is 0.096 against a shortlist average of 0.026.
  • Geographic footprint is a strength. Audience correlation of 0.060 sits above the shortlist average of -0.132, and affinity is elevated in six white-space metros, including Minneapolis and Columbus.
  • TV is a clear aggregate strength. The TV cross-domain score is 0.889 against a shortlist average of 0.884, with shared titles such as Workaholics at about 0.92.

Risks

  • Two-way audience affinity is 0.762, below the shortlist average of 0.806.
  • Taste-profile overlap is only 0.190 (17 shared tags out of a union of 83). The buyer's top-20 missing share is 0.6 against 0.475, so the Dodgers' core audience tags are largely absent from Vans' profile.
  • Momentum is weak at 0.503 against 0.532, so the audience signal is not strengthening.
  • Age buckets diverge. The target sits at -0.64 for 35 to 44 and -0.62 for 55 and older, against the Dodgers' 0.33 in the 55-and-older bucket. Demographic fit therefore rests on a narrow band.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot show on audience overlap, given affinity of 0.762 against a shortlist average of 0.806?
  • Which of the Dodgers' core taste tags can Vans product or content credibly carry?
  • Does momentum of 0.503 hold up across the window ending 2025-10-01?
  • Is the 55-and-older divergence stable across cuts, or does it reflect a narrow band?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)cache
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitiescache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok7800 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredcache
/v2/insightsok10712 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)cache
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t7-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.762283886518628,
   "b": 0.762283886518628,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.762283886518628,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "9B8B279C-B777-4293-8121-B8174970B57D",
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "affinity": 0.762283886518628
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8058428397073507,
   "b": 0.8058428397073507,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8058428397073506
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.19047619047619047,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:female_protagonist",
     "name": "female protagonist",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenage_boy",
     "name": "teenage boy",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:american",
     "name": "American",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tortillas",
     "name": "Tortillas",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:mexican_american",
     "name": "mexican american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:los_angeles_california",
     "name": "los angeles california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
     "name": "african american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:romance",
     "name": "Romance",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:salmon_a_la_plancha",
     "name": "Salmon A La Plancha",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:love",
     "name": "love",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:chinese_drama",
     "name": "chinese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:based_on_novel",
     "name": "based on novel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 83,
   "sharedCount": 17,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.6
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.26208447790247186,
   "sharedCount": 21.75,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.475
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.814169380463704,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Swishahouse",
       "affinity": 0.7292849679994088
      },
      {
       "name": "Berner",
       "affinity": 0.7326985469507507
      },
      {
       "name": "UGK",
       "affinity": 0.7444582461343473
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.7756705645045048,
     "shared": [
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       "name": "ScHoolboy Q",
       "affinity": 0.8127676444431978
      },
      {
       "name": "The Notorious B.I.G.",
       "affinity": 0.8102011535874057
      },
      {
       "name": "YG",
       "affinity": 0.8018057939003043
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Arrested Development",
       "affinity": 0.8653533139651076
      },
      {
       "name": "Running Wilde",
       "affinity": 0.8682916383624476
      },
      {
       "name": "A.P. Bio",
       "affinity": 0.8687919451852124
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.8885785884142714,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Workaholics",
       "affinity": 0.9268191079633412
      },
      {
       "name": "Trailer Park Boys",
       "affinity": 0.9254621104076115
      },
      {
       "name": "Reno 911!",
       "affinity": 0.9156999123020249
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Draft Day",
       "affinity": 0.7454537925105871
      },
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       "name": "42",
       "affinity": 0.7543571955286209
      },
      {
       "name": "Major League II",
       "affinity": 0.7596427809320286
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.7854206208746234,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.8287298270017064
      },
      {
       "name": "More Than a Game",
       "affinity": 0.8149607491935776
      },
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       "name": "Rebound: The Legend of Earl 'The Goat' Manigault",
       "affinity": 0.8056087132296128
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
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       "name": "Anything Better?",
       "affinity": 0.7431438531719348
      },
      {
       "name": "The YoYoYo Podcast w/Martin & Hooter",
       "affinity": 0.7583312332262229
      },
      {
       "name": "Enchilada Casserole",
       "affinity": 0.7653806281816017
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8070077480614165,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ten Minute Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8586160249063901
      },
      {
       "name": "Monday Morning Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8510299832479916
      },
      {
       "name": "TigerBelly",
       "affinity": 0.8478232736913588
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8441854633559238,
   "domains[0].score": 0.8794888506674802,
   "domains[1].score": 0.8836269856142132,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8086589764417401,
   "domains[3].score": 0.804967040700262
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.21,
    "female": -0.21,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": -0.53,
    "45_to_54": 0.22,
    "55_and_older": 0.33,
    "24_and_younger": 0.36
   },
   "value": 0.5478065748854846,
   "cosine": 0.09561314977096919,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.03,
    "female": -0.03,
    "25_to_29": 0.1,
    "30_to_34": 0.15,
    "35_to_44": -0.64,
    "45_to_54": -0.45,
    "55_and_older": -0.62,
    "24_and_younger": 0.51
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": 0.33,
    "bucket": "55_and_older",
    "target": -0.62
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.5129090961869054,
   "cosine": 0.02581819237381071
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.5299363374508927,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 44.9778,
     "lon": -93.265,
     "buyer": 0.8241633733063134,
     "metro": "Minneapolis",
     "target": 0.9875444425124503,
     "buyerRel": -0.03961269569810533,
     "targetRel": 0.1237683735080316
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.8065839559632366,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9806533139539768,
     "buyerRel": -0.05332035817189362,
     "targetRel": 0.12074899981884657
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.9612,
     "lon": -82.9988,
     "buyer": 0.7648850999435347,
     "metro": "Columbus",
     "target": 0.9892374573433935,
     "buyerRel": -0.10683239883722706,
     "targetRel": 0.11751995856263175
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.1031,
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     "metro": "Cincinnati",
     "target": 0.9894135490864946,
     "buyerRel": -0.048978758176842496,
     "targetRel": 0.10119948128179834
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.7796,
     "lon": -78.6382,
     "buyer": 0.8551836508424834,
     "metro": "Raleigh",
     "target": 0.9906114871682131,
     "buyerRel": -0.03524966789571138,
     "targetRel": 0.10017816843001837
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.627,
     "lon": -90.1994,
     "buyer": 0.8228324723279902,
     "metro": "St. Louis",
     "target": 0.9894284924191465,
     "buyerRel": -0.06704870610891123,
     "targetRel": 0.09954731398224514
    }
   ],
   "correlation": 0.05987267490178549,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.9088359603274305,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.9682200595614554,
     "buyerRel": 0.08757333791546484,
     "targetRel": 0.14695743714948972
    },
    {
     "lat": 61.2181,
     "lon": -149.9003,
     "buyer": 0.8499582220228651,
     "metro": "Anchorage",
     "target": 0.9657211056995523,
     "buyerRel": 0.047812276744295,
     "targetRel": 0.1635751604209822
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.9663896768709499,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.9851832804779406,
     "buyerRel": 0.09608621357675451,
     "targetRel": 0.11487981718374518
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.9706899894380029,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9882015531078187,
     "buyerRel": 0.09551623700885659,
     "targetRel": 0.11302780067867235
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.9157176737693803,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9861224003291553,
     "buyerRel": 0.032889662529978936,
     "targetRel": 0.10329438908975397
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 6,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.43391156033354505,
   "correlation": -0.13217687933290995
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.016329731190756203,
   "value": 0.502721621865126,
   "priorSd": 0.000412322309596877,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.1811742623720276,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.18084766774821248
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.19174600813212095,
   "value": 0.5319576680220202
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Vans",
  "data": {
   "name": "Vans",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
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    "Disney",
    "National Geographic",
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   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Accessible, authentic lifestyle brand for action sports and casual streetwear enthusiasts."
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  "shortlistAverages": {}
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 {
  "id": "t7-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 63.45848614938628,
   "points": {
    "m1": 26.679936028151978,
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  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 64.17616394455051
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 }
]