Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Chicago Bulls → target #4 of 8

New Era Cap

The definitive, authentic market leader in licensed sports headwear that transitions seamlessly from the playing field to daily streetwear.

Founded 1920 · Competes with Mitchell & Ness, Fanatics, '47, Under Armour · Partnerships: MLB, NFL, NBA

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
71.0F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 71.0 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.92
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.40
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.85
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.73
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.39
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.51
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3532.2
Taste-profile overlap0.104.0
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.0
Demographic alignment0.107.3
Geographic footprint0.207.9
Momentum0.052.6
F71.0

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Chicago Bulls (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly New Era Cap’s audience embraces them.

Music0.79
Embraced: Bobby Shmurda, Jay Rock, YG · Least shared: Rae Sremmurd, 21 Savage, Quavo
TV0.92
Embraced: Ballers, 30 for 30, Colin in Black & White · Least shared: The Offer, The Last Dance, Tiger
Film0.84
Embraced: Iverson, Coach Carter, More Than a Game · Least shared: Stephen Curry: Underrated, Shooting Stars, Rise
Podcasts0.85
Embraced: The Herd with Colin Cowherd, The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ryen Russillo Podcast · Least shared: The Athletic NBA Daily, The Starters, Hoops on Fox Podcast

Taste profile overlap

27 of 73 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hopafrican americanrapamerican footballtrapfriendelectronicfamily relationships
Buyer only

Ice Cream Sandwich, chicago, soul, European, new york city

New Era Cap only

Stadium, Veal Parmesan, car, california, police

Audience shape

Chicago Bulls (buyer) New Era Cap
-0.81-0.410.00+0.41+0.81≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.08 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: New Era Cap strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Buffalo, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Houston, San Jose, New York, San Francisco

Shared strongholds

Phoenix, Chicago, Tampa

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The two-way audience affinity between Chicago Bulls and New Era Cap is high at 0.921, a strength against the shortlist average of 0.892; the Bulls' audience reverse-indexes to New Era at the same level, so the overlap is mutual.

    t2-m1.value = 0.921t2-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8918
  • The composite score of 71.02 sits above the shortlist average of 70.61, reading as a strength on the overall deal profile.

    t2-score.F = 71.02t2-score.shortlistAverages.F = 70.61
  • Taste-profile overlap is a strength: 27 shared affinity tags against a shortlist average of 26.1, and the Bulls' top-20 audience has only a 0.25 missing share versus 0.3375 for the shortlist, so the shared base is broad and concentrated on the buyer's core.

    t2-m2.sharedCount = 27t2-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.25t2-m2.shortlistAverages.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.3375
  • Demographic alignment is a strength: the aggregate audience profile has a cosine of 0.456 against the shortlist average of 0.377, with both audiences skewing male (buyer 0.55, target 0.73).

    t2-m4.cosine = 0.4564t2-m4.male = 0.73t2-m4.buyer.male = 0.55

    Rejected by the judge: "male" does not resolve to a number in t2-m4

  • Momentum has faded in the aggregate signal: the recent mean sits slightly above the prior mean, and the code's momentum readings for this pairing are below the shortlist, so the upside case rests on the existing overlap rather than on a rising trend.

    FADING
    t2-m6.value = 0.5127

    Rejected by the judge: nothing to mitigate: the code rules did not raise FADING

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • The geographic footprint is weak: the aggregate correlation between the two brands' metro affinities is negative and sits below the shortlist average, and the code counts 7 white-space metros out of 55 where New Era's audience affinity is high but the Bulls' is not.

    t2-m5.correlation = -0.2107t2-m5.shortlistAverages.correlation = -0.1309t2-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 7t2-m5.metroCount = 55
  • Momentum is below the shortlist: the recent-versus-prior z-score for the audience signal is 0.0761 against a shortlist average of 0.1143, so the aggregate audience overlap is not gaining ground.

    t2-m6.z = 0.07615t2-m6.shortlistAverages.z = 0.1143
  • Cross-domain agreement trails the shortlist: the aggregate value is 0.8519 against 0.8841, and the podcast domain's audience agreement is 0.8530 against 0.8623, so the shared audience is narrower across media than peers' audiences.

    t2-m3.value = 0.8519t2-m3.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8841t2-m3.domains[3].score = 0.853
  • The age profile diverges sharply: the Bulls' aggregate audience under-indexes at 30 to 34 (-0.81), while New Era's audience under-indexes at 55 and older (-0.69), so the two brands' core demographics do not line up and a co-brand would need to bridge that gap.

    t2-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.81t2-m4.target.55_and_older = -0.69
  • The headline affinity rests on one driver: New Era's profile attributes its pull entirely to Chicago Bulls, and ownership is listed as unknown, so diligence must confirm the partnership signal is not a single-partner artifact before it is treated as durable.

    t2-profile.drivers[0].score = 1

IC memo

Number check passed: 28 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

New Era Cap: ADVANCE

Recommendation. Advance New Era Cap to the next stage of the Chicago Bulls streetwear co-brand screen. The verdict rule was met: the composite F of 71.0 clears the 67 threshold, and the ledger shows no red flags. New Era ranks 4 of 8 on the shortlist.

Where the audiences meet. The two-way audience affinity is 0.921, above the shortlist average of 0.892. The overlap is mutual, since the Bulls' audience reverse-indexes to New Era at the same level. Taste-profile overlap is also a strength, with 27 shared affinity tags against a shortlist average of 26.1. The Bulls' top-20 audience has a 0.25 missing share, below the shortlist's 0.3375, so the shared base is concentrated on the buyer's core. In aggregate, the audience over-indexes on hip hop, rap, trap and American football.

Risks.

  • Geography is weak. The correlation between the two brands' metro affinities is negative (-0.21) and below the shortlist average. The data show 7 white-space metros out of 55 where New Era's audience affinity is high but the Bulls' is not.
  • Momentum lags. The recent-versus-prior z-score is 0.0761, against a shortlist average of 0.1143.
  • Cross-domain agreement trails peers. The aggregate is 0.8519 against 0.8841, and podcast agreement is 0.8530 against 0.8623.
  • Core age profiles diverge. The Bulls' audience under-indexes at 30 to 34 (-0.81), while New Era's under-indexes at 55 and older (-0.69). A co-brand would need to bridge that gap.
  • Single driver. New Era's profile attributes its pull entirely to Chicago Bulls, and ownership is unknown. The partnership signal may depend on one partner.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot show in the seven white-space metros, and does it reach beyond the Bulls' home market?
  • Does the audience signal hold over time, given the weak momentum reading?
  • How does the 30-to-34 Bulls audience respond to product designed for the 55-and-older New Era base, and where do the two core demographics meet?
  • Is the affinity driven only by the Bulls, or do New Era's other known partnerships (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, Spike Lee) show the same pattern?
  • What is New Era's ownership structure, and does it affect deal authority?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok18 of 18 candidates scoredlive 99 ms
/v2/insightsok18 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 850 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 1392 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 1463 ms
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 1515 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 1791 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3353 ms
/v2/insightsok8000 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3816 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 346 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 349 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok6409 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 4227 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 4533 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 5004 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 5203 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 5488 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 5684 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t2-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.921031073359875,
   "b": 0.921031073359875,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.9210310733598751,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "D4AD32CC-571E-4DBC-AD6A-D9C53D98D999",
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "affinity": 0.921031073359875
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8917794070251019,
   "b": 0.8917794070251019,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.891779407025102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.40109890109890095,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
     "name": "african american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:trap",
     "name": "trap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:ice_cream_sandwich",
     "name": "Ice Cream Sandwich",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:chicago",
     "name": "chicago",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:soul",
     "name": "soul",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:european",
     "name": "European",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:new_york_city",
     "name": "new york city",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:stadium",
     "name": "Stadium",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:veal_parmesan",
     "name": "Veal Parmesan",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:car",
     "name": "car",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:california",
     "name": "california",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:police",
     "name": "police",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 73,
   "sharedCount": 27,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.25
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.3545728547479838,
   "sharedCount": 26.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.3375
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8519188358236995,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Rae Sremmurd",
       "affinity": 0.777603310029909
      },
      {
       "name": "21 Savage",
       "affinity": 0.7776148771333058
      },
      {
       "name": "Quavo",
       "affinity": 0.7816469087770862
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.7938292294664232,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Bobby Shmurda",
       "affinity": 0.8071256778750953
      },
      {
       "name": "Jay Rock",
       "affinity": 0.8069753004845488
      },
      {
       "name": "YG",
       "affinity": 0.8068209960802737
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Offer",
       "affinity": 0.8913335830012458
      },
      {
       "name": "The Last Dance",
       "affinity": 0.8965481103342671
      },
      {
       "name": "Tiger",
       "affinity": 0.9011507530912295
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9180926201599054,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ballers",
       "affinity": 0.9816285497758254
      },
      {
       "name": "30 for 30",
       "affinity": 0.9377198838293106
      },
      {
       "name": "Colin in Black & White",
       "affinity": 0.9349264379282035
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Stephen Curry: Underrated",
       "affinity": 0.8117069703831846
      },
      {
       "name": "Shooting Stars",
       "affinity": 0.8149994403144192
      },
      {
       "name": "Rise",
       "affinity": 0.8199297166247456
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8427398202981417,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Iverson",
       "affinity": 0.873897167032822
      },
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.8719895124814361
      },
      {
       "name": "More Than a Game",
       "affinity": 0.8683217724125536
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Athletic NBA Daily",
       "affinity": 0.8177887162107548
      },
      {
       "name": "The Starters",
       "affinity": 0.8248267293653051
      },
      {
       "name": "Hoops on Fox Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8345496822814914
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8530136733703276,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Herd with Colin Cowherd",
       "affinity": 0.8855903253569768
      },
      {
       "name": "The Bill Simmons Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8798854248850349
      },
      {
       "name": "The Ryen Russillo Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8794082491286692
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8841334655475053,
   "domains[0].score": 0.9164584390301476,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9181011755683315,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8396970546564967,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8622771929350453
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.55,
    "female": -0.55,
    "25_to_29": 0.21,
    "30_to_34": -0.81,
    "35_to_44": -0.56,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": 0.02,
    "24_and_younger": 0.02
   },
   "value": 0.7281933814690815,
   "cosine": 0.45638676293816305,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.73,
    "female": -0.73,
    "25_to_29": -0.03,
    "30_to_34": 0.06,
    "35_to_44": 0.01,
    "45_to_54": 0.16,
    "55_and_older": -0.6900000000000001,
    "24_and_younger": -0.06
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": -0.81,
    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": 0.06
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6883574717414059,
   "cosine": 0.3767149434828121
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.394644968121868,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 42.8864,
     "lon": -78.8784,
     "buyer": 0.8143400826658372,
     "metro": "Buffalo",
     "target": 0.975721542654899,
     "buyerRel": -0.09041931199092956,
     "targetRel": 0.07096214799813216
    },
    {
     "lat": 34.0522,
     "lon": -118.2437,
     "buyer": 0.9416455233001693,
     "metro": "Los Angeles",
     "target": 0.9698240264315766,
     "buyerRel": -0.024511878244730223,
     "targetRel": 0.003666624886677128
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.5816,
     "lon": -121.4944,
     "buyer": 0.8383984975441868,
     "metro": "Sacramento",
     "target": 0.9191799664395105,
     "buyerRel": -0.0779376495938946,
     "targetRel": 0.0028438193014290736
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.7604,
     "lon": -95.3698,
     "buyer": 0.9304519701414031,
     "metro": "Houston",
     "target": 0.9519629234396703,
     "buyerRel": -0.02195922804123185,
     "targetRel": -0.00044827474296471603
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.3382,
     "lon": -121.8863,
     "buyer": 0.8724995966915574,
     "metro": "San Jose",
     "target": 0.9246961895723682,
     "buyerRel": -0.05794092425712394,
     "targetRel": -0.005744331376313139
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7128,
     "lon": -74.006,
     "buyer": 0.9374205437764477,
     "metro": "New York",
     "target": 0.9559924100522847,
     "buyerRel": -0.0268733302748424,
     "targetRel": -0.008301463999005332
    },
    {
     "lat": 37.7749,
     "lon": -122.4194,
     "buyer": 0.8963790532278197,
     "metro": "San Francisco",
     "target": 0.913493124519491,
     "buyerRel": -0.03520195229152301,
     "targetRel": -0.018087880999851702
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.21071006375626394,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 33.4484,
     "lon": -112.074,
     "buyer": 0.938552500218514,
     "metro": "Phoenix",
     "target": 0.9342773754414108,
     "buyerRel": 0.011419932458160975,
     "targetRel": 0.007144807681057741
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.8781,
     "lon": -87.6298,
     "buyer": 0.9992549190995342,
     "metro": "Chicago",
     "target": 0.9516857401937747,
     "buyerRel": 0.031641279905371134,
     "targetRel": -0.01592789900038838
    },
    {
     "lat": 27.9506,
     "lon": -82.4572,
     "buyer": 0.937009236082006,
     "metro": "Tampa",
     "target": 0.9193164224938443,
     "buyerRel": 0.0040626984707738956,
     "targetRel": -0.013630115117387875
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 7,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4345477483481854,
   "correlation": -0.1309045033036292
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0.07614950449165159,
   "value": 0.5126915840819419,
   "priorSd": 0.0011194836452783396,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.11241170149881974,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.1108887114089867
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.11430341929896531,
   "value": 0.5190505698831609
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: New Era Cap",
  "data": {
   "name": "New Era Cap",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "unknown",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Japan",
    "Australia",
    "Europe"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9843026902408842,
   "screenRank": 2,
   "foundedYear": 1920,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    60
   ],
   "ultimateParent": null,
   "forwardAffinity": 0.921031073359875,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Mitchell & Ness",
    "Fanatics",
    "'47",
    "Under Armour"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "MLB",
    "NFL",
    "NBA",
    "NHL",
    "Spike Lee"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "The definitive, authentic market leader in licensed sports headwear that transitions seamlessly from the playing field to daily streetwear."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t2-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 71.02374439259651,
   "points": {
    "m1": 32.23608756759563,
    "m2": 4.010989010989009,
    "m3": 17.03837671647399,
    "m4": 7.281933814690815,
    "m5": 7.89289936243736,
    "m6": 2.56345792040971
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.6104596381021
  }
 }
]