Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Chicago Bulls → target #5 of 8

Nike

Market-leading athletic brand providing high-performance gear across a wide range of price points for professional and amateur athletes.

Founded 1964 · Parent: Nike, Inc. · Competes with Adidas, Puma, Under Armour, New Balance · Partnerships: Kevin Durant, Colin Kaepernick, Anna Cockrell

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
70.9F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 70.9 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.91
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.29
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.91
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.60
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.48
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.49
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3531.8
Taste-profile overlap0.102.9
Cross-domain agreement0.2018.1
Demographic alignment0.106.0
Geographic footprint0.209.7
Momentum0.052.5
F70.9

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Chicago Bulls (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Nike’s audience embraces them.

Music0.94
Embraced: 2 Chainz, YG, French Montana · Least shared: 21 Savage, MadeinTYO, Kodak Black
TV0.93
Embraced: The Last Dance, Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, Last Chance U: Basketball · Least shared: Tiger, They Call Me Magic, Man in the Arena
Film0.84
Embraced: Coach Carter, Creed III, American Underdog · Least shared: He Got Game, White Men Can't Jump, Boyz n the Hood
Podcasts0.91
Embraced: Jalen & Jacoby, The Bill Simmons Podcast, Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective · Least shared: The Tony Kornheiser Show, The Basketball Jones Podcast, The Athletic NBA Daily

Taste profile overlap

26 of 74 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hopraptrapfriendrhythm & blueselectronicbasketballfriendship
Buyer only

Ice Cream Sandwich, American, american football, chicago, European

Nike only

Tataki Atun, Sports, Hotel, love, Restaurant

Audience shape

Chicago Bulls (buyer) Nike
-0.81-0.410.00+0.41+0.81≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.06 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Nike strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Boise, Tucson, Oklahoma City, Portland, Salt Lake City

Shared strongholds

Omaha, Louisville, Albuquerque, Nashville, Kansas City

Bull vs bear

8 of 10 claims survived the judge; 2 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Audience affinity for Nike among Chicago Bulls fans is high and reads as a strength against the shortlist, with the reverse Bulls-to-Nike affinity matching the forward value.

    t4-m1.value = 0.9074t4-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8918

  • Cross-domain agreement is strong: the aggregate audience over-indexes on Nike across music, TV, film and podcasts, with the TV domain score above the shortlist average.

    t4-m3.value = 0.9051t4-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9254t4-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[1].score = 0.9181

  • Shared TV affinity is anchored in basketball storytelling: the audience shows high affinity for The Last Dance, a basketball docuseries closely tied to the Bulls.

    t4-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.9711

  • Geographic footprint is a strength: Nike's aggregate affinity holds up across the cohort, and five metros show white space where Nike is strong but the Bulls audience is comparatively thin, an opening for co-brand reach.

    t4-m5.value = 0.4841t4-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 5

  • Overall composite score sits at the shortlist level, and the code raised no red flags on this pairing, so the case for proceeding rests on the audience-overlap signals above rather than on a hidden risk.

    t4-score.F = 70.87t4-score.shortlistAverages.F = 70.61

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Taste-profile overlap is weak: the buyer-target shared-tag share is low against the shortlist, and the buyer's top-20 tags are largely missing from the target's profile, so the audiences share fewer tastes than the headline affinity suggests.

    t4-m2.value = 0.2898t4-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35

  • Demographic alignment is a weakness: the buyer over-indexes on 30 to 34 year olds at a level the target does not share, the biggest gap in the cohort, and the overall demographic cosine sits below the shortlist average.

    t4-m4.cosine = 0.1955t4-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.81t4-m4.target.30_to_34 = 0.12

  • Momentum is weak: the recent mean of the affinity signal sits below the prior mean, giving a negative z-score, and the momentum reading trails the shortlist average, so the overlap may be fading rather than building.

    t4-m6.z = -0.05644t4-m6.recentMean = 0.006564

  • Geographic whitespace is a diligence point: the target's audience is strong in the five whitespace metros where the buyer's audience is comparatively weak, and the buyer-target geographic correlation is slightly negative, so the two bases may not reinforce each other regionally.

    t4-m5.correlation = -0.03179t4-m5.whiteSpace[0].buyerRel = -0.1245t4-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 5

    Rejected by the judge: cites m5 Geographic footprint "correlation" = -0.0318 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (-0.1309)

  • The headline score is driven by the mutual affinity and cross-domain agreement, which may overstate fit: the reverse affinity equals the forward affinity, and the composite of 70.87 sits almost exactly at the shortlist average of 70.61, so the deal does not stand out against alternatives and needs audience-level diligence before any commitment.

    t4-score.F = 70.87t4-m1.value = 0.9074t4-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8918

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 70.8721 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (70.6105)

IC memo

Number check passed: 18 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Nike: ADVANCE

Recommendation Advance. Nike's composite F of 70.9 clears the 67 threshold, and no red flags were raised, so the verdict rule is met. Nike ranks 5 of 8 on the shortlist, so the case rests on audience-overlap signals, not on a standout composite.

Where the audiences meet Two-way audience affinity is 0.91 in both directions between Nike and the Chicago Bulls. Cross-domain agreement is also 0.91, with the aggregate audience over-indexing on Nike across music, TV, film and podcasts. The clearest shared TV anchor is The Last Dance, at 0.97 affinity. Five metros show white space where Nike is strong and Bulls audience affinity is comparatively thin.

Risks

  • Taste-profile overlap is weak at 0.29. The buyer's top-20 tags are largely missing from Nike's profile (35% missing), so the audiences share fewer tastes than the headline affinity suggests.
  • Demographic alignment is the weakest signal. The buyer's 30 to 34 band is the biggest gap in the cohort, and demographic cosine is 0.20 against a shortlist average of 0.38.
  • Momentum is negative (z of -0.06) and trails the shortlist, so the overlap may be fading rather than building.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot show on taste overlap, given that most of the buyer's top-20 tags are absent from Nike's profile?
  • How would a pilot reach the 30 to 34 band, where the cohort gap is largest?
  • Does the recent momentum decline persist when the window is extended, or is it a short-term dip?
  • Which of the five white-space metros can a co-brand reach realistically, and at what cost?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok18 of 18 candidates scoredlive 99 ms
/v2/insightsok18 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 850 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 1392 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 1463 ms
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 1515 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 1791 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3353 ms
/v2/insightsok8000 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3816 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 346 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 349 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok11306 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 2972 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 3193 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 3455 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 3710 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 3995 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 4682 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t4-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9074090732459824,
   "b": 0.9074090732459824,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.9074090732459824,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "D4AD32CC-571E-4DBC-AD6A-D9C53D98D999",
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "affinity": 0.9074090732459824
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8917794070251019,
   "b": 0.8917794070251019,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.891779407025102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.28983308042488626,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:trap",
     "name": "trap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rhythm_blues",
     "name": "rhythm & blues",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:basketball",
     "name": "basketball",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:ice_cream_sandwich",
     "name": "Ice Cream Sandwich",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:american",
     "name": "American",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:chicago",
     "name": "chicago",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:european",
     "name": "European",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:tataki_atun",
     "name": "Tataki Atun",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:sports",
     "name": "Sports",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:hotel",
     "name": "Hotel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:love",
     "name": "love",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant",
     "name": "Restaurant",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 74,
   "sharedCount": 26,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.3545728547479838,
   "sharedCount": 26.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.3375
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.9051072169891334,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "21 Savage",
       "affinity": 0.9115660929995625
      },
      {
       "name": "MadeinTYO",
       "affinity": 0.9141810619933669
      },
      {
       "name": "Kodak Black",
       "affinity": 0.915646781496456
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.9398065884556216,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "2 Chainz",
       "affinity": 0.9745987963400965
      },
      {
       "name": "YG",
       "affinity": 0.9684767793751216
      },
      {
       "name": "French Montana",
       "affinity": 0.9631948962024253
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Tiger",
       "affinity": 0.9135246344417005
      },
      {
       "name": "They Call Me Magic",
       "affinity": 0.914240889642719
      },
      {
       "name": "Man in the Arena",
       "affinity": 0.9145931080719433
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9253504932567291,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Last Dance",
       "affinity": 0.9711178800178071
      },
      {
       "name": "Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty",
       "affinity": 0.941805442075057
      },
      {
       "name": "Last Chance U: Basketball",
       "affinity": 0.9333419357353624
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "He Got Game",
       "affinity": 0.8074023539686855
      },
      {
       "name": "White Men Can't Jump",
       "affinity": 0.8085527300751676
      },
      {
       "name": "Boyz n the Hood",
       "affinity": 0.8114570039888003
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8417645153832773,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.8734790194053572
      },
      {
       "name": "Creed III",
       "affinity": 0.867668713858482
      },
      {
       "name": "American Underdog",
       "affinity": 0.8615555341223377
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Tony Kornheiser Show",
       "affinity": 0.8878706292240433
      },
      {
       "name": "The Basketball Jones Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8904146943797563
      },
      {
       "name": "The Athletic NBA Daily",
       "affinity": 0.8917037419036745
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.913507270860906,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Jalen & Jacoby",
       "affinity": 0.9834062356496528
      },
      {
       "name": "The Bill Simmons Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.9489251647508372
      },
      {
       "name": "Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective",
       "affinity": 0.9302307072876685
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8841334655475053,
   "domains[0].score": 0.9164584390301476,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9181011755683315,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8396970546564967,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8622771929350453
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.55,
    "female": -0.55,
    "25_to_29": 0.21,
    "30_to_34": -0.81,
    "35_to_44": -0.56,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": 0.02,
    "24_and_younger": 0.02
   },
   "value": 0.5977279501177455,
   "cosine": 0.19545590023549092,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.32,
    "female": -0.32,
    "25_to_29": 0.18,
    "30_to_34": 0.12,
    "35_to_44": 0.07,
    "45_to_54": -0.51,
    "55_and_older": -0.59,
    "24_and_younger": 0.29
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": -0.81,
    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": 0.12
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6883574717414059,
   "cosine": 0.3767149434828121
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.48410346689630834,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.6198979607598881,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.9749606382511943,
     "buyerRel": -0.12446865947242436,
     "targetRel": 0.2305940180188818
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.7966495364600914,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.9875782678893517,
     "buyerRel": -0.024936764505324227,
     "targetRel": 0.16599196692393603
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.8094174906599649,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9922630385171581,
     "buyerRel": -0.04018938591581944,
     "targetRel": 0.14265616194137376
    },
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.7577771156265121,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.9934940072191396,
     "buyerRel": -0.0937294788131322,
     "targetRel": 0.14198741277949534
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7608,
     "lon": -111.891,
     "buyer": 0.8203407092707965,
     "metro": "Salt Lake City",
     "target": 0.9897442167873617,
     "buyerRel": -0.03725254908624276,
     "targetRel": 0.13215095843032243
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.03179306620738329,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 41.2565,
     "lon": -95.9345,
     "buyer": 0.8411972591205571,
     "metro": "Omaha",
     "target": 0.9759982846935712,
     "buyerRel": 0.053224947129118294,
     "targetRel": 0.1880259727021324
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.8653578653559726,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9900676939699086,
     "buyerRel": 0.02429760124591951,
     "targetRel": 0.1490074298598555
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.8480744367120524,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9861741584224529,
     "buyerRel": 0.013868507276568742,
     "targetRel": 0.15196822898696927
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.8665193274141575,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.991268304424779,
     "buyerRel": 0.010930138195842098,
     "targetRel": 0.13567911520646359
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.0997,
     "lon": -94.5786,
     "buyer": 0.8667575470065781,
     "metro": "Kansas City",
     "target": 0.9921823925818721,
     "buyerRel": -0.0012288060928712374,
     "targetRel": 0.12419603948242275
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 5,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4345477483481854,
   "correlation": -0.1309045033036292
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.056441450432653806,
   "value": 0.4905930915945577,
   "priorSd": 0.001050869151016424,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0.00769239699313351,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0.006563567984480434
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.11430341929896531,
   "value": 0.5190505698831609
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Nike",
  "data": {
   "name": "Nike",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "independent",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "North America",
    "Europe",
    "Greater China",
    "Asia Pacific",
    "Latin America"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9999915241307996,
   "screenRank": 4,
   "foundedYear": 1964,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    300
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Nike, Inc.",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9074090732459824,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Adidas",
    "Puma",
    "Under Armour",
    "New Balance",
    "Reebok"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Kevin Durant",
    "Colin Kaepernick",
    "Anna Cockrell",
    "Daryl Homer",
    "Saroya Tinker"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Market-leading athletic brand providing high-performance gear across a wide range of price points for professional and amateur athletes."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t4-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 70.87210700471734,
   "points": {
    "m1": 31.759317563609386,
    "m2": 2.8983308042488627,
    "m3": 18.10214433978267,
    "m4": 5.977279501177454,
    "m5": 9.682069337926167,
    "m6": 2.4529654579727884
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.6104596381021
  }
 }
]