Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Chicago Bulls → target #3 of 8

Under Armour

A mid-market performance athletic brand known for technical innovation and moisture-wicking materials.

Founded 1996 · Parent: Under Armour, Inc. · Competes with Nike, Adidas, Puma, Reebok · Partnerships: Curry Brand, Bryce Harper, Dwayne Johnson

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Advance
72.3F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 72.3 >= 67 and no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.91
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.28
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.87
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.78
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.50
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.48
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3531.9
Taste-profile overlap0.102.8
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.4
Demographic alignment0.107.8
Geographic footprint0.209.9
Momentum0.052.4
F72.3

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Chicago Bulls (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Under Armour’s audience embraces them.

Music0.87
Embraced: Gucci Mane, 2 Chainz, YG · Least shared: Kodak Black, Quavo, Offset
TV0.92
Embraced: Ballers, 30 for 30, Colin in Black & White · Least shared: The Offer, The Last Dance, Tiger
Film0.85
Embraced: Coach Carter, Iverson, Glory Road · Least shared: Shooting Stars, White Men Can't Jump, He Got Game
Podcasts0.84
Embraced: The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Jalen & Jacoby, The Ryen Russillo Podcast · Least shared: No Dunks, The Starters, The Athletic NBA Daily

Taste profile overlap

22 of 78 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hoprapfriendelectronicfamily relationshipstrapfriendshipamerican football
Buyer only

Ice Cream Sandwich, American, chicago, soul, European

Under Armour only

Golf course, Lobster Pasta, Sports, country, Golf club

Audience shape

Chicago Bulls (buyer) Under Armour
-0.81-0.410.00+0.41+0.81≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.11 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Under Armour strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Boise, Tucson, Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City

Shared strongholds

Omaha, Louisville, Albuquerque, Nashville, Kansas City, Cincinnati

Bull vs bear

7 of 10 claims survived the judge; 3 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The audience affinity for Under Armour is strong in absolute terms and sits above the shortlist average, with the Chicago Bulls showing the same reverse affinity of 0.91, indicating a shared fan audience at the top of the taste graph.

    t3-m1.value = 0.9127t3-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8918

  • The composite score of 72.3 sits above the shortlist average of 70.6, with audience affinity contributing the largest share of points at 31.9.

    t3-score.F = 72.34t3-score.shortlistAverages.F = 70.61t3-score.points.m1 = 31.94

  • Demographic alignment is a strength: the audience profile of the two brands has a cosine of 0.56, well above the shortlist average, with the audience over-indexing on males in both brands and an aggregate 35 to 44 bucket where Under Armour skews up by 0.34 against a buyer gap of -0.56.

    t3-m4.cosine = 0.5618t3-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.3767t3-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.34

  • Geographic footprint is a strength on overlap: the aggregate geographic correlation of -0.006 is above the shortlist average of -0.131, and six metros including Nashville, Louisville and Cincinnati show shared strongholds where the target's relative affinity runs above the buyer's.

    t3-m5.correlation = -0.005994t3-m5.shortlistAverages.correlation = -0.1309t3-m5.strongholds[3].targetRel = 0.1141

  • Under Armour's known partnerships and popularity support a credible co-brand narrative, with Qloo popularity near 1.0 and a screen rank of 3 in the entity profile.

    t3-profile.popularity = 0.9985t3-profile.screenRank = 3

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Taste-profile overlap is weak: the buyer-target shared-tag share sits below the shortlist average, with only 22 shared tags against a shortlist average of 26.125, so the brands' audiences share less taste texture than peers do.

    t3-m2.sharedCount = 22t3-m2.value = 0.2814

  • Cross-domain agreement is weaker than the shortlist on the music, TV and podcast domains, so the audience's shared taste across media is not clearly stronger than peers; the film domain is the exception.

    t3-m3.domains[0].score = 0.8703t3-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9164

  • A large share of the buyer's top audience tags are absent from the target's audience, at 0.35, against a shortlist average of 0.3375, which signals a gap in the co-brand's shared story that must be tested before any deal.

    t3-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.35t3-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.3375

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.3375 for m2 Taste-profile overlap "buyerTop20MissingShare", but the ledger says 0.35

  • Momentum is flat-to-soft: the z-score is -0.105 against a shortlist average of 0.114, so the aggregate audience signal is not accelerating and the committee should not assume a rising tailwind.

    t3-m6.z = -0.1054t3-m6.z = 0.1143

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.1143 for m6 Momentum "z", but the ledger says -0.1054

  • The composite score of 72.34 is only modestly above the shortlist average of 70.61, and the buyer's largest demographic gap is in the 35-44 bucket (buyer -0.56 against target 0.34), so the audience fit is uneven and needs diligence before commitment.

    t3-score.F = 72.34t3-score.F = 70.61t3-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.34

    Rejected by the judge: cites Composite score "F" = 72.3352 as a weakness, but it is above the shortlist average (70.6105)

IC memo

Number check passed: 18 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Under Armour: ADVANCE

Recommendation: Advance Under Armour as a co-brand candidate for the Chicago Bulls streetwear collaboration. It ranks 3 of 8 with a composite F of 72.3, which clears the verdict rule (F of at least 67 and no red flags). No red flags were raised.

Where the audiences meet

  • Two-way audience affinity is 0.91, the same reverse affinity the Chicago Bulls show, and it sits above the shortlist average of 0.89. Affinity is the largest scoring component at 31.9 points.
  • Demographic alignment is a strength. The cosine is 0.56 against a shortlist average of 0.38. The audience over-indexes on males in both brands.
  • Geographic overlap is a strength. The correlation of -0.006 is above the shortlist average of -0.131. Six metros, including Nashville, Louisville and Cincinnati, show shared strongholds.
  • Known partnerships (Curry Brand, Bryce Harper, Dwayne Johnson) and popularity near 1.0 support a credible co-brand narrative.

Risks

  • Taste-profile overlap is weak. The brands share 22 tags against a shortlist average of 26.125, so their audiences share less taste texture than peers do.
  • Cross-domain agreement is 0.87 against a shortlist average of 0.88. It is weaker than the shortlist in music, TV and podcasts. Film is the exception.
  • Momentum is weak (value 0.48 against a shortlist average of 0.52), and the z-score is below the shortlist average.

Diligence questions

  • What would a co-branded pilot between Chicago Bulls and Under Armour show, given the thin taste-tag overlap?
  • Does the film-domain agreement hold across other media, or is it a narrow signal?
  • Is the momentum softness a short-term pattern or a trend, and how would we track it before launch?
  • Which of the four whitespace metros (Boise, Tucson, Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City) justify a launch market?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok18 of 18 candidates scoredlive 99 ms
/v2/insightsok18 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 850 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 1392 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 1463 ms
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 1515 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 1791 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3353 ms
/v2/insightsok8000 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3816 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 346 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 349 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 1251 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 1468 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 2001 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 2218 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 2365 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 2682 ms
/v2/insightsok10097 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 6024 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 12687 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t3-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.9126822852900892,
   "b": 0.9126822852900892,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.9126822852900892,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "D4AD32CC-571E-4DBC-AD6A-D9C53D98D999",
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "affinity": 0.9126822852900892
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8917794070251019,
   "b": 0.8917794070251019,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.891779407025102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.2814070351758793,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:trap",
     "name": "trap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:ice_cream_sandwich",
     "name": "Ice Cream Sandwich",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:american",
     "name": "American",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:chicago",
     "name": "chicago",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:soul",
     "name": "soul",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:european",
     "name": "European",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:golf_course",
     "name": "Golf course",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:lobster_pasta",
     "name": "Lobster Pasta",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:sports",
     "name": "Sports",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:country",
     "name": "country",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:golf_club",
     "name": "Golf club",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 78,
   "sharedCount": 22,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.35
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.3545728547479838,
   "sharedCount": 26.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.3375
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8708119867766944,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Kodak Black",
       "affinity": 0.8428207097738258
      },
      {
       "name": "Quavo",
       "affinity": 0.8497061009485234
      },
      {
       "name": "Offset",
       "affinity": 0.8507143449574172
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.8702620882303538,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Gucci Mane",
       "affinity": 0.89990907295779
      },
      {
       "name": "2 Chainz",
       "affinity": 0.8971560734198332
      },
      {
       "name": "YG",
       "affinity": 0.8919884982444813
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Offer",
       "affinity": 0.8902228667599822
      },
      {
       "name": "The Last Dance",
       "affinity": 0.8977429704702107
      },
      {
       "name": "Tiger",
       "affinity": 0.8997309936669078
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.916400959170712,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Ballers",
       "affinity": 0.9777752175941063
      },
      {
       "name": "30 for 30",
       "affinity": 0.9341280524280801
      },
      {
       "name": "Colin in Black & White",
       "affinity": 0.9304415115298853
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Shooting Stars",
       "affinity": 0.8036887556357043
      },
      {
       "name": "White Men Can't Jump",
       "affinity": 0.8108841891009996
      },
      {
       "name": "He Got Game",
       "affinity": 0.8259229130900836
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8524225326019393,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.8963648972154709
      },
      {
       "name": "Iverson",
       "affinity": 0.8776213347846552
      },
      {
       "name": "Glory Road",
       "affinity": 0.8726840080759447
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "No Dunks",
       "affinity": 0.7974188651304728
      },
      {
       "name": "The Starters",
       "affinity": 0.810054681876877
      },
      {
       "name": "The Athletic NBA Daily",
       "affinity": 0.8107888099496788
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8441623671037723,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Herd with Colin Cowherd",
       "affinity": 0.8992668562382817
      },
      {
       "name": "Jalen & Jacoby",
       "affinity": 0.8795949151393859
      },
      {
       "name": "The Ryen Russillo Podcast",
       "affinity": 0.8775247115138971
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8841334655475053,
   "domains[0].score": 0.9164584390301476,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9181011755683315,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8396970546564967,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8622771929350453
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.55,
    "female": -0.55,
    "25_to_29": 0.21,
    "30_to_34": -0.81,
    "35_to_44": -0.56,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": 0.02,
    "24_and_younger": 0.02
   },
   "value": 0.7808805690229155,
   "cosine": 0.561761138045831,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.5,
    "female": -0.5,
    "25_to_29": -0.1,
    "30_to_34": -0.7000000000000001,
    "35_to_44": 0.34,
    "45_to_54": 0.07,
    "55_and_older": -0.66,
    "24_and_younger": -0.04
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": -0.56,
    "bucket": "35_to_44",
    "target": 0.34
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6883574717414059,
   "cosine": 0.3767149434828121
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.49700298667166054,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.6198979607598881,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.918905648766176,
     "buyerRel": -0.12446865947242436,
     "targetRel": 0.1745390285338635
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.7966495364600914,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.9520390324907239,
     "buyerRel": -0.024936764505324227,
     "targetRel": 0.13045273152530823
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.8094174906599649,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9659330478738503,
     "buyerRel": -0.04018938591581944,
     "targetRel": 0.11632617129806588
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7608,
     "lon": -111.891,
     "buyer": 0.8203407092707965,
     "metro": "Salt Lake City",
     "target": 0.9673795004054129,
     "buyerRel": -0.03725254908624276,
     "targetRel": 0.10978624204837362
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.00599402665667893,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 41.2565,
     "lon": -95.9345,
     "buyer": 0.8411972591205571,
     "metro": "Omaha",
     "target": 0.9338576056575101,
     "buyerRel": 0.053224947129118294,
     "targetRel": 0.14588529366607128
    },
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.8653578653559726,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9624618467785476,
     "buyerRel": 0.02429760124591951,
     "targetRel": 0.12140158266849455
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.8480744367120524,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9488030878378377,
     "buyerRel": 0.013868507276568742,
     "targetRel": 0.11459715840235407
    },
    {
     "lat": 36.1627,
     "lon": -86.7816,
     "buyer": 0.8665193274141575,
     "metro": "Nashville",
     "target": 0.9697365612608236,
     "buyerRel": 0.010930138195842098,
     "targetRel": 0.11414737204250824
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.0997,
     "lon": -94.5786,
     "buyer": 0.8667575470065781,
     "metro": "Kansas City",
     "target": 0.9767022794771445,
     "buyerRel": -0.0012288060928712374,
     "targetRel": 0.10871592637769512
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.1031,
     "lon": -84.512,
     "buyer": 0.8742387488564647,
     "metro": "Cincinnati",
     "target": 0.9766175777771501,
     "buyerRel": 0.00033358426769380944,
     "targetRel": 0.1027124131883792
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 4,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4345477483481854,
   "correlation": -0.1309045033036292
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.10541548568213654,
   "value": 0.48243075238631056,
   "priorSd": 0.0018978977711527165,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0.8076118792237077,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0.805503569510065
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.11430341929896531,
   "value": 0.5190505698831609
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Under Armour",
  "data": {
   "name": "Under Armour",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "independent",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Canada",
    "China",
    "United Kingdom",
    "Japan"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9985421504975335,
   "screenRank": 3,
   "foundedYear": 1996,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    20,
    180
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Under Armour, Inc.",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.9126822852900892,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Nike",
    "Adidas",
    "Puma",
    "Reebok",
    "New Balance"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Curry Brand",
    "Bryce Harper",
    "Dwayne Johnson"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "A mid-market performance athletic brand known for technical innovation and moisture-wicking materials."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t3-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 72.33520925803974,
   "points": {
    "m1": 31.94387998515312,
    "m2": 2.814070351758793,
    "m3": 17.416239735533885,
    "m4": 7.808805690229155,
    "m5": 9.94005973343321,
    "m6": 2.412153761931553
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.6104596381021
  }
 }
]