Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Chicago Bulls → target #8 of 8

Puma

Mass-market performance and lifestyle sports brand competing on technical innovation and cultural collaborations.

Founded 1948 · Parent: Puma SE · Competes with Nike, Adidas, Reebok, Under Armour · Partnerships: Scuderia Ferrari, Manchester City FC, A$AP Rocky

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
64.3F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 64.3 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.85
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.22
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.87
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.49
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.37
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.50
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3529.9
Taste-profile overlap0.102.2
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.5
Demographic alignment0.104.9
Geographic footprint0.207.4
Momentum0.052.5
F64.3

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Chicago Bulls (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Puma’s audience embraces them.

Music0.95
Embraced: French Montana, 2 Chainz, Migos · Least shared: Chief Keef, MadeinTYO, 21 Savage
TV0.92
Embraced: The Last Dance, Welcome to Wrexham, Beckham · Least shared: Ballers, The Offer, The Defiant Ones
Film0.82
Embraced: Hustle, American Underdog, Creed III · Least shared: He Got Game, Rebound: The Legend of Earl 'The Goat' Manigault, Boyz n the Hood
Podcasts0.81
Embraced: First Take, Jalen & Jacoby, The Chronicles of Redick · Least shared: The Athletic NBA Daily, The Lowe Post, The Starters

Taste profile overlap

18 of 82 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hoprapelectronictrapfriendshipfamily relationshipsfriendrhythm & blues
Buyer only

Ice Cream Sandwich, American, african american, basketball, american football

Puma only

Hotel, Banana Bread, chinese drama, murder, love

Audience shape

Chicago Bulls (buyer) Puma
-0.81-0.410.00+0.41+0.81≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = -0.03 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Puma strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Washington, DC, Boston, Baltimore, Hartford, Providence, New Orleans, New York, Philadelphia

Shared strongholds

Tampa, Orlando

Bull vs bear

10 of 10 claims survived the judge; 0 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • The Music domain shows the strongest cross-domain agreement: the audience's aggregate affinity for Puma's shared music artists scores 0.950, above the shortlist average of 0.916.

    t8-m3.domains[0].score = 0.9501t8-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[0].score = 0.9165
  • TV is the second strong domain, with aggregate agreement of 0.922 against a shortlist average of 0.918, so the overlap is not limited to music.

    t8-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9218t8-m3.shortlistAverages.domains[1].score = 0.9181
  • The affinity between the two brands is reciprocal, with a ratio of 1.0 and a forward affinity of 0.853 from Puma's profile, which is driven by the Chicago Bulls as its top driver at score 1.

    t8-m1.ratio = 1t8-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.8534
  • Both audiences over-index on the 25-29 bracket, with Bulls aggregate affinity at 0.21 and Puma at 0.20, and both lean male, which gives a shared demographic base for a co-branded line.

    t8-m4.buyer.25_to_29 = 0.21t8-m4.target.25_to_29 = 0.2t8-m4.target.male = 0.19
  • Puma's footprint is concentrated in Florida, with aggregate relative affinity of 0.020 in Tampa, where the Bulls audience is also slightly positive at 0.004, which suggests a regional activation option.

    t8-m5.strongholds[0].targetRel = 0.02026t8-m5.strongholds[0].buyerRel = 0.004063

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • The taste-graph affinity between the Bulls and Puma is below the shortlist average, so the audience overlap that would underpin a co-brand is weaker than peers. The two-way affinity sits under the shortlist average.

    t8-m1.value = 0.8534t8-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8918
  • Taste-profile overlap is thin: only 18 shared tags out of 82 in the union, and 55% of the Bulls' top-20 tags are missing from Puma's profile. The aggregate audience overlap is narrow.

    t8-m2.sharedCount = 18t8-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.55
  • Demographic alignment is a clear weakness: the Bulls' audience over-indexes at 30 to 34 (-0.81) where Puma's audience is at +0.31, and the overall demographic cosine is negative at -0.026 versus a shortlist average of 0.377.

    t8-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.81t8-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.31t8-m4.cosine = -0.02637
  • Geographic footprint runs against the deal: the metro-level correlation is negative at -0.257, and eight metros are white space where Puma's audience is strong but the Bulls' is weaker, so the overlap is not where the Bulls' fan base is concentrated.

    t8-m5.correlation = -0.2571t8-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 8
  • Composite score F is 64.3 against a shortlist average of 70.6, and momentum is flat (z of -0.026), so the diligence case rests on a below-peer score with no upward trend to lean on.

    t8-score.F = 64.3t8-score.shortlistAverages.F = 70.61t8-m6.z = -0.02598

IC memo

Number check passed: 35 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Puma: WATCH

Recommendation. Puma's composite F is 64.3, inside the 62-67 WATCH band, and no red flags were raised, so the verdict is WATCH rather than advance. It ranks 8 of 8 on the shortlist, against a shortlist average of 70.6, so treat it as a conditional screen, not a lead.

Where the audiences meet

  • Music is the strongest domain: aggregate agreement of 0.950 for shared artists, above the shortlist average of 0.916.
  • TV is also strong at 0.922 against 0.918, so the overlap is not limited to music.
  • Affinity is reciprocal (ratio 1.0; forward affinity 0.853), with the Chicago Bulls as Puma's top driver at score 1.
  • Both audiences over-index on the 25-29 bracket (Bulls 0.21, Puma 0.20) and lean male.
  • Puma's strongest footprint is Tampa (relative affinity 0.020), where Bulls affinity is slightly positive (0.004), which suggests a regional activation option.

Risks

  • Two-way affinity (0.853) sits below the shortlist average of 0.89. Taste-profile overlap is thin: 18 shared tags out of 82, and 55% of the Bulls' top-20 tags are missing from Puma's profile.
  • Demographics diverge. The Bulls' audience over-indexes at 30 to 34 (-0.81) where Puma's sits at +0.31. Demographic cosine is -0.026 against a shortlist average of 0.377.
  • Geography runs against the deal. The metro-level correlation is -0.257, with eight white-space metros where Puma is strong and the Bulls are weaker.
  • Momentum is flat (z of -0.026), so there is no upward trend to lean on.

Diligence questions

  • Given below-average taste-graph affinity, what would a co-branded pilot between Chicago Bulls and Puma show?
  • How would a pilot address the 30-34 demographic gap?
  • Does a Tampa-first activation hold, given the Bulls' slightly positive affinity there?
  • What would move momentum off flat before committing?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok18 of 18 candidates scoredlive 99 ms
/v2/insightsok18 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 850 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 1392 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 1463 ms
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 1515 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 1791 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3353 ms
/v2/insightsok8000 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3816 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 346 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 349 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 10195 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 10427 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 10962 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 11216 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 11455 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 11725 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 12183 ms
/v2/insightsok8245 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 15524 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t8-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.8534493933197222,
   "b": 0.8534493933197222,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8534493933197222,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "D4AD32CC-571E-4DBC-AD6A-D9C53D98D999",
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "affinity": 0.8534493933197222
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8917794070251019,
   "b": 0.8917794070251019,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.891779407025102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.21660305343511457,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:trap",
     "name": "trap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:family_relationships",
     "name": "family relationships",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rhythm_blues",
     "name": "rhythm & blues",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:ice_cream_sandwich",
     "name": "Ice Cream Sandwich",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:american",
     "name": "American",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
     "name": "african american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:basketball",
     "name": "basketball",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:hotel",
     "name": "Hotel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:banana_bread",
     "name": "Banana Bread",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:chinese_drama",
     "name": "chinese drama",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:murder",
     "name": "murder",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:love",
     "name": "love",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 82,
   "sharedCount": 18,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.3545728547479838,
   "sharedCount": 26.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.3375
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8744703646174332,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Chief Keef",
       "affinity": 0.9284353208752212
      },
      {
       "name": "MadeinTYO",
       "affinity": 0.9348693383404785
      },
      {
       "name": "21 Savage",
       "affinity": 0.937943965130464
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.9501218990884681,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "French Montana",
       "affinity": 0.9742688775490324
      },
      {
       "name": "2 Chainz",
       "affinity": 0.9683152419777648
      },
      {
       "name": "Migos",
       "affinity": 0.967682549025316
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Ballers",
       "affinity": 0.888240955487317
      },
      {
       "name": "The Offer",
       "affinity": 0.9001105651941402
      },
      {
       "name": "The Defiant Ones",
       "affinity": 0.9091898778622519
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.921807609721016,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Last Dance",
       "affinity": 0.9502992587662414
      },
      {
       "name": "Welcome to Wrexham",
       "affinity": 0.9484270676390486
      },
      {
       "name": "Beckham",
       "affinity": 0.9429800118853026
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "He Got Game",
       "affinity": 0.7740491001026449
      },
      {
       "name": "Rebound: The Legend of Earl 'The Goat' Manigault",
       "affinity": 0.7847175153741218
      },
      {
       "name": "Boyz n the Hood",
       "affinity": 0.7863307292611778
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8187015820658046,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Hustle",
       "affinity": 0.8691560604699597
      },
      {
       "name": "American Underdog",
       "affinity": 0.8652290631743625
      },
      {
       "name": "Creed III",
       "affinity": 0.86268884639028
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Athletic NBA Daily",
       "affinity": 0.7732038214638642
      },
      {
       "name": "The Lowe Post",
       "affinity": 0.7760147500673213
      },
      {
       "name": "The Starters",
       "affinity": 0.7775213141883232
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8072503675944445,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "First Take",
       "affinity": 0.8637167850226605
      },
      {
       "name": "Jalen & Jacoby",
       "affinity": 0.8603735962032577
      },
      {
       "name": "The Chronicles of Redick",
       "affinity": 0.8565066309386711
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8841334655475053,
   "domains[0].score": 0.9164584390301476,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9181011755683315,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8396970546564967,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8622771929350453
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.55,
    "female": -0.55,
    "25_to_29": 0.21,
    "30_to_34": -0.81,
    "35_to_44": -0.56,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": 0.02,
    "24_and_younger": 0.02
   },
   "value": 0.4868153644813582,
   "cosine": -0.026369271037283572,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.19,
    "female": -0.19,
    "25_to_29": 0.2,
    "30_to_34": 0.31,
    "35_to_44": 0.03,
    "45_to_54": -0.49,
    "55_and_older": -0.56,
    "24_and_younger": 0.16
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": -0.81,
    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": 0.31
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6883574717414059,
   "cosine": 0.3767149434828121
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.371430116021764,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 38.9072,
     "lon": -77.0369,
     "buyer": 0.888113819622662,
     "metro": "Washington, DC",
     "target": 0.9574118280884025,
     "buyerRel": -0.03401039571342568,
     "targetRel": 0.035287612752314845
    },
    {
     "lat": 42.3601,
     "lon": -71.0589,
     "buyer": 0.8596350923575807,
     "metro": "Boston",
     "target": 0.9638577208396526,
     "buyerRel": -0.0716662843189193,
     "targetRel": 0.03255634416315256
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.2904,
     "lon": -76.6122,
     "buyer": 0.8461888373210822,
     "metro": "Baltimore",
     "target": 0.9410452532623864,
     "buyerRel": -0.06358960664175106,
     "targetRel": 0.03126680929955317
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.7658,
     "lon": -72.6734,
     "buyer": 0.8384254466398543,
     "metro": "Hartford",
     "target": 0.934530656930056,
     "buyerRel": -0.06801779433138855,
     "targetRel": 0.028087415958813144
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.824,
     "lon": -71.4128,
     "buyer": 0.8155106444392848,
     "metro": "Providence",
     "target": 0.9357180259560756,
     "buyerRel": -0.09241854138720607,
     "targetRel": 0.027788840129584713
    },
    {
     "lat": 29.9511,
     "lon": -90.0715,
     "buyer": 0.8635111011299903,
     "metro": "New Orleans",
     "target": 0.9217789835917392,
     "buyerRel": -0.03648790422888604,
     "targetRel": 0.021779978232862818
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7128,
     "lon": -74.006,
     "buyer": 0.9374205437764477,
     "metro": "New York",
     "target": 0.9824706082797211,
     "buyerRel": -0.0268733302748424,
     "targetRel": 0.018176734228431024
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.9526,
     "lon": -75.1652,
     "buyer": 0.8906865048842285,
     "metro": "Philadelphia",
     "target": 0.9676256556848055,
     "buyerRel": -0.06004835577736978,
     "targetRel": 0.016890795023207228
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.25713976795647203,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 27.9506,
     "lon": -82.4572,
     "buyer": 0.937009236082006,
     "metro": "Tampa",
     "target": 0.9532097227815421,
     "buyerRel": 0.0040626984707738956,
     "targetRel": 0.020263185170310005
    },
    {
     "lat": 28.5383,
     "lon": -81.3792,
     "buyer": 0.9259923025994713,
     "metro": "Orlando",
     "target": 0.9507386991862881,
     "buyerRel": -0.0020956958751011667,
     "targetRel": 0.0226507007117156
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 8,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4345477483481854,
   "correlation": -0.1309045033036292
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": -0.025980873981490404,
   "value": 0.49566985433641825,
   "priorSd": 0.0004233064911459226,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": -0.2215004008178867,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": -0.2220200182975165
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.11430341929896531,
   "value": 0.5190505698831609
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Puma",
  "data": {
   "name": "Puma",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "independent",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "Europe",
    "North America",
    "Asia-Pacific",
    "Latin America"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9990930819955587,
   "screenRank": 8,
   "foundedYear": 1948,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    250
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Puma SE",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.8534493933197222,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Nike",
    "Adidas",
    "Reebok",
    "Under Armour",
    "New Balance"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Scuderia Ferrari",
    "Manchester City FC",
    "A$AP Rocky",
    "Salehe Bembury",
    "Formula 1"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Mass-market performance and lifestyle sports brand competing on technical innovation and cultural collaborations."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t8-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 64.30127182982103,
   "points": {
    "m1": 29.87072876619028,
    "m2": 2.1660305343511457,
    "m3": 17.489407292348666,
    "m4": 4.868153644813582,
    "m5": 7.42860232043528,
    "m6": 2.478349271682091
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.6104596381021
  }
 }
]