Simpatico

Licensing / co-brand · Chicago Bulls → target #7 of 8

Adidas

Premium global athletic brand offering performance and lifestyle products for both athletes and casual consumers.

Founded 1924 · Parent: Adidas AG · Competes with Nike, Puma, Under Armour, Reebok · Partnerships: Kanye West, Pharrell Williams, FIFA

Corporate details are Qloo entity data.

Watch
65.2F / 100
100% of the weighted evidence measured

Why this verdict

F 65.2 is between 62 and 67, no red flags.

Scores, flags and verdicts are computed in code. The agents can only argue with the ledger; they never set the score.

Six audience metrics

Bar = this target; tick = shortlist average.

m1 Two-way audience affinity
0.86
Harmonic mean of the buyer audience’s affinity for the target and the target audience’s affinity for the buyer’s brands.
m2 Taste-profile overlap
0.20
Rank-weighted overlap of the two audiences’ top-50 cultural taste tags.
m3 Cross-domain agreement
0.88
How strongly the target’s audience embraces the buyer audience’s favourite artists, shows, films and podcasts.
m4 Demographic alignment
0.57
Similarity of the two audiences’ age and gender over-index profiles.
m5 Geographic footprint
0.37
Correlation of metro-level audience affinity, relative to the screened cohort.
m6 Momentum
0.50
Trending rank change over the last 4 weeks vs the 8 before, relative to the cohort.

How F is built

Points each metric adds (weights for Licensing / co-brand, renormalised over what Qloo could measure).

MetricWeightPoints
Two-way audience affinity0.3530.1
Taste-profile overlap0.102.0
Cross-domain agreement0.2017.6
Demographic alignment0.105.7
Geographic footprint0.207.4
Momentum0.052.5
F65.2

Qloo explainability: the buyer-side signals driving the forward affinity are Chicago Bulls (1.00).

Where the audiences meet, across culture

The buyer audience’s top titles in each domain, ranked by how strongly Adidas’s audience embraces them.

Music0.91
Embraced: 2 Chainz, French Montana, YG · Least shared: MadeinTYO, Metro Boomin, Chief Keef
TV0.93
Embraced: The Last Dance, Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, Beckham · Least shared: Man in the Arena, Tiger, The Golden Boy
Film0.82
Embraced: Hustle, American Underdog, Coach Carter · Least shared: White Men Can't Jump, He Got Game, Blue Chips
Podcasts0.85
Embraced: Jalen & Jacoby, The Chronicles of Redick, First Take · Least shared: The Tony Kornheiser Show, The Russillo Show, The Athletic NBA Daily

Taste profile overlap

17 of 83 top taste tags shared.

Both over-index on
Hip Hoprapelectronicfriendshipfriendtraprockteenager
Buyer only

Ice Cream Sandwich, American, african american, basketball, american football

Adidas only

Hotel, Sports, Pudim, argentina, violence

Audience shape

Chicago Bulls (buyer) Adidas
-0.81-0.410.00+0.41+0.81≤2425–2930–3435–4445–5455+MenWomen

Relative over-index (+) or under-index (−) of each aggregate audience, from Qloo. Not individual data.

Momentum

z = 0.00 relative to the screened cohort (2025-10-01).

prior 8 weekslast 4

Footprint overlap for distribution

White space: Adidas strong, buyer weak Shared stronghold Other metros
White space

Portland, Boise, Seattle, Salt Lake City, Oklahoma City, Austin, Tucson, Hartford

Shared strongholds

Louisville, Albuquerque, Kansas City

Bull vs bear

6 of 10 claims survived the judge; 4 rejected for citing numbers not in the ledger or misreading them.

Bull: for the deal

  • Demographic alignment is partial but has a clear core: the aggregate audience over-indexes on males (0.55 for the buyer, 0.24 for the target) and on ages 25 to 29 (0.22 target, 0.21 buyer), giving a shared male-skewed younger base.

    t7-m4.buyer.male = 0.55t7-m4.target.25_to_29 = 0.22

  • The audience over-indexes on the Bulls-Adidas pairing: the reverse audience affinity from Chicago Bulls back to Adidas is 0.86, the same value as the forward affinity, so the link is symmetric in the aggregate graph.

    t7-m1.value = 0.8606t7-profile.forwardAffinity = 0.8606

    Rejected by the judge: cites m1 Two-way audience affinity "value" = 0.8606 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8918)

  • Cross-domain agreement is strongest in TV, where the shared audience affinity for The Last Dance reaches 0.97 and the TV domain score is 0.93, above the shortlist average of 0.92.

    t7-m3.domains[1].shared[0].affinity = 0.9695t7-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9293t7-m3.domains[1].score = 0.9181

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.9181 for m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[1].score", but the ledger says 0.9293

  • Podcast and film affinities also agree with the Bulls audience: the podcast domain score is 0.85 and the film domain score is 0.82, with Hustle at 0.87 among shared titles.

    t7-m3.domains[3].score = 0.8485t7-m3.domains[2].shared[0].affinity = 0.8726

    Rejected by the judge: cites m3 Cross-domain agreement "domains[3].score" = 0.8485 as a strength, but it is below the shortlist average (0.8623)

  • Geographic whitespace is a growth lever rather than a pure gap: Adidas affinity exceeds the Bulls audience in eight whitespace metros such as Portland (0.97 vs 0.76), and the Bulls already hold strongholds like Kansas City (0.87) where the brand's audience is also strong.

    t7-m5.whiteSpace[0].target = 0.968t7-m5.whiteSpace[0].buyer = 0.7578t7-m5.whiteSpace[0].buyer = 0.8668

    Rejected by the judge: cited 0.8668 for m5 Geographic footprint "whiteSpace[0].buyer", but the ledger says 0.7578

Bear: against, or diligence first

  • Composite fit score of 65.2 sits below the shortlist average of 70.6, and the code raised no red flags, so the bear case rests on weaker sub-metrics rather than a rule violation.

    t7-score.F = 65.25t7-score.shortlistAverages.F = 70.61

  • Taste-profile overlap is thin: only 17 shared tags against a shortlist average of 26.1, and the Bulls' top-20 audience tags are missing from Adidas for 55% of them versus a 33.75% shortlist average.

    t7-m2.sharedCount = 17t7-m2.shortlistAverages.sharedCount = 26.13t7-m2.buyerTop20MissingShare = 0.55

  • Demographic alignment is weak: the buyer audience skews strongly toward the 30 to 34 bucket at -0.81 while the target sits at 0.11, and the overall cosine of 0.138 trails the shortlist average of 0.377.

    t7-m4.biggestGap.buyer = -0.81t7-m4.biggestGap.target = 0.11t7-m4.cosine = 0.1379t7-m4.shortlistAverages.cosine = 0.3767

  • Geographic alignment is inverted: the correlation of buyer and target footprints is -0.26, and eight metros are white space where Adidas over-indexes but the Bulls do not, which points to a regional mismatch to diligence before any co-brand.

    t7-m5.correlation = -0.2604t7-m5.whiteSpaceCount = 8

  • Momentum is flat (z of 0 against a shortlist average of 0.114) and the two-way audience affinity of 0.861 sits below the shortlist average of 0.892, so the relationship shows no demonstrated upward trend in aggregate audience interest.

    t7-m6.z = 0t7-m1.value = 0.8606t7-m1.shortlistAverages.value = 0.8918

IC memo

Number check passed: 31 number(s), all in the evidence ledger.Written by claude-haiku-5-5

Adidas: WATCH

Recommendation Keep Adidas on WATCH. The verdict rule decided it: composite F 65.2 falls in the 62 to 67 band and the code raised no red flags. The score sits below the shortlist average of 70.6, so the case for a Bulls streetwear collaboration rests on a narrow base.

Where the audiences meet

  • The aggregate audience over-indexes on males for both sides: 0.55 for the Bulls buyer and 0.24 for Adidas.
  • Both audiences show a similar affinity for ages 25 to 29: 0.21 for the buyer and 0.22 for the target.
  • This gives a shared, male-skewed, younger core. The alignment is partial.

Risks

  • Thin taste overlap: 17 shared tags against a shortlist average of 26.1. The Bulls' top-20 audience tags are missing from Adidas for 55% of them, versus a 33.75% shortlist average.
  • Weak age alignment: the buyer audience skews strongly toward ages 30 to 34 at -0.81, while the target sits at 0.11. Overall cosine is 0.138, against a shortlist average of 0.377.
  • Inverted geography: the correlation of footprints is -0.26. Eight metros are white space, where Adidas over-indexes and the Bulls do not.
  • Flat momentum: z of 0 against a shortlist average of 0.114. Two-way affinity of 0.861 sits below the shortlist average of 0.892, so the data show no upward trend in aggregate interest.

Diligence questions

  • Does the 30 to 34 gap narrow in a pilot audience, or does it persist?
  • Which of the eight white-space metros could a co-brand realistically serve, and what regional mismatch sits behind the -0.26 correlation?
  • Do the shared tags (hip hop, rap, trap) reflect the product category, and would a streetwear drop reach beyond them?
  • Can product or content bridge the 55% of top-20 Bulls tags that are missing from Adidas?
  • Does momentum show any movement over a longer window before the deal moves off WATCH?

Aggregate audience affinities from Qloo, not predictions about individuals. Not investment advice.

Provenance: 26 Qloo calls behind this target

Requests as sent (the API key travels in a header and is never logged). Responses are cached privately on the server.

PurposeEndpointStatusResultSource
/v2/insightsok18 of 18 candidates scoredlive 99 ms
/v2/insightsok18 profile(s)cache
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)live 850 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended movie(s)live 1392 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended tv_show(s)live 1463 ms
/v2/insightsokdemographics for 9 of 9 entitieslive 1515 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended podcast(s)live 1791 ms
/v2/insightsok25 recommended artist(s)live 3353 ms
/v2/insightsok8000 heatmap cell(s) in United Stateslive 3816 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)cache
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 324 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 346 ms
/v2/trendingok47 trend point(s)live 349 ms
/v2/insightsok50 taste tag(s)cache
/v2/insightsok9366 heatmap cell(s) in United Statescache
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 8967 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 9227 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 9587 ms
/v2/analysis/compareok0 shared catalogue tag(s)live 9672 ms
/v2/insightsok1 of 1 candidates scoredlive 10189 ms
/v2/insightsok25 of 25 candidates scoredlive 10739 ms
Evidence rows (what bull, bear and the judge see)
[
 {
  "id": "t7-flags",
  "label": "Red flags (code rules)",
  "data": {
   "flags": []
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m1",
  "label": "m1 Two-way audience affinity",
  "data": {
   "a": 0.860633851880744,
   "b": 0.860633851880744,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.8606338518807441,
   "reverse": [
    {
     "id": "D4AD32CC-571E-4DBC-AD6A-D9C53D98D999",
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "affinity": 0.860633851880744
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "a": 0.8917794070251019,
   "b": 0.8917794070251019,
   "ratio": 1,
   "value": 0.891779407025102
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m2",
  "label": "m2 Taste-profile overlap",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.19830827067669174,
   "shared": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:hip_hop",
     "name": "Hip Hop",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rap",
     "name": "rap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:electronic",
     "name": "electronic",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friendship",
     "name": "friendship",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:friend",
     "name": "friend",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:trap",
     "name": "trap",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:rock",
     "name": "rock",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:teenager",
     "name": "teenager",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1,
   "buyerOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:ice_cream_sandwich",
     "name": "Ice Cream Sandwich",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:restaurant:american",
     "name": "American",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:african_american",
     "name": "african american",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:basketball",
     "name": "basketball",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:american_football",
     "name": "american football",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "targetOnly": [
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:place:hotel",
     "name": "Hotel",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:media:sports",
     "name": "Sports",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:media"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place:pudim",
     "name": "Pudim",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:specialty_dish:place"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:genre:music:argentina",
     "name": "argentina",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:genre:music"
    },
    {
     "id": "urn:tag:keyword:media:violence",
     "name": "violence",
     "subtype": "urn:tag:keyword:media"
    }
   ],
   "unionCount": 83,
   "sharedCount": 17,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.55
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.3545728547479838,
   "sharedCount": 26.125,
   "buyerTop20MissingShare": 0.3375
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m3",
  "label": "m3 Cross-domain agreement",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.8777784277093299,
   "domains": [
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:artist",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "MadeinTYO",
       "affinity": 0.8882141257935304
      },
      {
       "name": "Metro Boomin",
       "affinity": 0.891572016766474
      },
      {
       "name": "Chief Keef",
       "affinity": 0.8921000976148765
      }
     ],
     "label": "Music",
     "score": 0.9103921675523786,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "2 Chainz",
       "affinity": 0.9363433486391448
      },
      {
       "name": "French Montana",
       "affinity": 0.9357818555029793
      },
      {
       "name": "YG",
       "affinity": 0.9332553529753765
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:tv_show",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "Man in the Arena",
       "affinity": 0.9136505741868032
      },
      {
       "name": "Tiger",
       "affinity": 0.9161952101626946
      },
      {
       "name": "The Golden Boy",
       "affinity": 0.9203008103673249
      }
     ],
     "label": "TV",
     "score": 0.9292692515347473,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "The Last Dance",
       "affinity": 0.9694690213355114
      },
      {
       "name": "Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty",
       "affinity": 0.945804405971699
      },
      {
       "name": "Beckham",
       "affinity": 0.9375031482990945
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:movie",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "White Men Can't Jump",
       "affinity": 0.7768679668799897
      },
      {
       "name": "He Got Game",
       "affinity": 0.7779013219992008
      },
      {
       "name": "Blue Chips",
       "affinity": 0.792687209606938
      }
     ],
     "label": "Film",
     "score": 0.8229987987483446,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Hustle",
       "affinity": 0.8726343295595298
      },
      {
       "name": "American Underdog",
       "affinity": 0.8686390102324609
      },
      {
       "name": "Coach Carter",
       "affinity": 0.8614603444426124
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    },
    {
     "type": "urn:entity:podcast",
     "clash": [
      {
       "name": "The Tony Kornheiser Show",
       "affinity": 0.7948745423828171
      },
      {
       "name": "The Russillo Show",
       "affinity": 0.8222905765405696
      },
      {
       "name": "The Athletic NBA Daily",
       "affinity": 0.8268439303993671
      }
     ],
     "label": "Podcasts",
     "score": 0.8484534930018494,
     "shared": [
      {
       "name": "Jalen & Jacoby",
       "affinity": 0.9073985019039538
      },
      {
       "name": "The Chronicles of Redick",
       "affinity": 0.8847696923032367
      },
      {
       "name": "First Take",
       "affinity": 0.8786900760424685
      }
     ],
     "expected": 25,
     "returned": 25
    }
   ],
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.8841334655475053,
   "domains[0].score": 0.9164584390301476,
   "domains[1].score": 0.9181011755683315,
   "domains[2].score": 0.8396970546564967,
   "domains[3].score": 0.8622771929350453
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m4",
  "label": "m4 Demographic alignment",
  "data": {
   "buyer": {
    "male": 0.55,
    "female": -0.55,
    "25_to_29": 0.21,
    "30_to_34": -0.81,
    "35_to_44": -0.56,
    "45_to_54": 0.01,
    "55_and_older": 0.02,
    "24_and_younger": 0.02
   },
   "value": 0.5689511026123263,
   "cosine": 0.13790220522465266,
   "target": {
    "male": 0.24,
    "female": -0.24,
    "25_to_29": 0.22,
    "30_to_34": 0.11,
    "35_to_44": 0.08,
    "45_to_54": -0.51,
    "55_and_older": -0.58,
    "24_and_younger": 0.35000000000000003
   },
   "coverage": 1,
   "biggestGap": {
    "buyer": -0.81,
    "bucket": "30_to_34",
    "target": 0.11
   }
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.6883574717414059,
   "cosine": 0.3767149434828121
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m5",
  "label": "m5 Geographic footprint",
  "data": {
   "value": 0.3698180069661901,
   "coverage": 1,
   "metroCount": 55,
   "whiteSpace": [
    {
     "lat": 45.5152,
     "lon": -122.6784,
     "buyer": 0.7577771156265121,
     "metro": "Portland",
     "target": 0.9679784214704673,
     "buyerRel": -0.0937294788131322,
     "targetRel": 0.11647182703082304
    },
    {
     "lat": 43.615,
     "lon": -116.2023,
     "buyer": 0.6198979607598881,
     "metro": "Boise",
     "target": 0.8300966623264231,
     "buyerRel": -0.12446865947242436,
     "targetRel": 0.08573004209411061
    },
    {
     "lat": 47.6062,
     "lon": -122.3321,
     "buyer": 0.8048012269474224,
     "metro": "Seattle",
     "target": 0.9542797792349472,
     "buyerRel": -0.07070923676530494,
     "targetRel": 0.07876931552221988
    },
    {
     "lat": 40.7608,
     "lon": -111.891,
     "buyer": 0.8203407092707965,
     "metro": "Salt Lake City",
     "target": 0.9312887424282499,
     "buyerRel": -0.03725254908624276,
     "targetRel": 0.07369548407121063
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.4676,
     "lon": -97.5164,
     "buyer": 0.8094174906599649,
     "metro": "Oklahoma City",
     "target": 0.9186160900695892,
     "buyerRel": -0.04018938591581944,
     "targetRel": 0.06900921349380484
    },
    {
     "lat": 30.2672,
     "lon": -97.7431,
     "buyer": 0.8355851286837355,
     "metro": "Austin",
     "target": 0.9533756753480047,
     "buyerRel": -0.04903663132710112,
     "targetRel": 0.06875391533716813
    },
    {
     "lat": 32.2226,
     "lon": -110.9747,
     "buyer": 0.7966495364600914,
     "metro": "Tucson",
     "target": 0.8877630849775907,
     "buyerRel": -0.024936764505324227,
     "targetRel": 0.06617678401217508
    },
    {
     "lat": 41.7658,
     "lon": -72.6734,
     "buyer": 0.8384254466398543,
     "metro": "Hartford",
     "target": 0.9708420560292096,
     "buyerRel": -0.06801779433138855,
     "targetRel": 0.06439881505796674
    }
   ],
   "correlation": -0.2603639860676198,
   "strongholds": [
    {
     "lat": 38.2527,
     "lon": -85.7585,
     "buyer": 0.8653578653559726,
     "metro": "Louisville",
     "target": 0.9077937412833486,
     "buyerRel": 0.02429760124591951,
     "targetRel": 0.06673347717329547
    },
    {
     "lat": 35.0844,
     "lon": -106.6504,
     "buyer": 0.8480744367120524,
     "metro": "Albuquerque",
     "target": 0.9059994761596668,
     "buyerRel": 0.013868507276568742,
     "targetRel": 0.07179354672418314
    },
    {
     "lat": 39.0997,
     "lon": -94.5786,
     "buyer": 0.8667575470065781,
     "metro": "Kansas City",
     "target": 0.9313922268509351,
     "buyerRel": -0.0012288060928712374,
     "targetRel": 0.06340587375148576
    }
   ],
   "whiteSpaceCount": 8,
   "relativeToCohort": true
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "value": 0.4345477483481854,
   "correlation": -0.1309045033036292
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-m6",
  "label": "m6 Momentum",
  "data": {
   "z": 0,
   "value": 0.5,
   "priorSd": 0,
   "coverage": 1,
   "priorMean": 0,
   "normalised": true,
   "recentMean": 0
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "z": 0.11430341929896531,
   "value": 0.5190505698831609
  }
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-profile",
  "label": "Qloo entity profile: Adidas",
  "data": {
   "name": "Adidas",
   "drivers": [
    {
     "name": "Chicago Bulls",
     "score": 1
    }
   ],
   "ownership": "independent",
   "keyMarkets": [
    "United States",
    "Germany",
    "China",
    "Japan",
    "United Kingdom"
   ],
   "popularity": 0.9997457239239884,
   "screenRank": 7,
   "foundedYear": 1924,
   "priceRangeUsd": [
    25,
    300
   ],
   "ultimateParent": "Adidas AG",
   "forwardAffinity": 0.860633851880744,
   "competitorBrands": [
    "Nike",
    "Puma",
    "Under Armour",
    "Reebok",
    "New Balance"
   ],
   "sharedCategories": [],
   "knownPartnerships": [
    "Kanye West",
    "Pharrell Williams",
    "FIFA",
    "UEFA",
    "Stella McCartney"
   ],
   "marketPositioning": "Premium global athletic brand offering performance and lifestyle products for both athletes and casual consumers."
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {}
 },
 {
  "id": "t7-score",
  "label": "Composite score",
  "data": {
   "F": 65.24670724222662,
   "points": {
    "m1": 30.122184815826046,
    "m2": 1.9830827067669174,
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    "m5": 7.396360139323802,
    "m6": 2.5
   },
   "coverage": 1
  },
  "shortlistAverages": {
   "F": 70.6104596381021
  }
 }
]